Anyone here understand statistics?

**vetran** · 7 July 2014, 10:13

don't say his name three times!

**scooterscot** · 7 July 2014, 11:25

That's a matter of probability. But there's only a 10% chance of that.

**scooterscot** · 7 July 2014, 11:25

Originally posted by vetran View Post

don't say his name three times!

Have to watch that movie now.

**SueEllen** · 7 July 2014, 12:02

Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post

BBC News - Do doctors understand test results?

Are doctors confused by statistics? A new book by one prominent statistician says they are - and that this makes it hard for patients to make informed decisions about treatment.

Not all patients.

Some are like Sas................

**vetran** · 7 July 2014, 12:13

Originally posted by SueEllen View Post

Some are like Sas................

twice - stop now!!!

**ZARDOZ** · 7 July 2014, 12:22

That article makes it seem the tests are crap, but it's half a story:

In the example The Positive predictive value= approx 10% or 1 in 10

However the Negative predictive value for the example is near 100%

In summary you can have low confidence that a positive result is true BUT high confidence a negative is true. Get tested negative you can be almost certain it's correct. Get tested positive, you may have the disease but most probably not, certainly worth further medical investigation to confirm.

**tractor** · 7 July 2014, 13:16

...

Originally posted by ZARDOZ View Post

That article makes it seem the tests are crap, but it's half a story:

In the example The Positive predictive value= approx 10% or 1 in 10

However the Negative predictive value for the example is near 100%

In summary you can have low confidence that a positive result is true BUT high confidence a negative is true. Get tested negative you can be almost certain it's correct. Get tested positive, you may have the disease but most probably not, certainly worth further medical investigation to confirm.

Should just use AVG Free and hope for false positives then and cut out the middleman.

Anyone here understand statistics?