Scottish independence scare stories

[Waldorf]

Ever since the opinion poll showing the Yes vote in the lead, it has been slightly embarrassing at the amount of scare stories from the establishment to try and sway the Scots from voting Yes.

Can you imagine the level of scare stories we will get if we ever get a vote on coming out of the EU?

Of course banks like RBS & Lloyds will have to move some operations to England because that is where most of their operations are, but to portray it as a mass close down of Scottish business is totally crap.

This is exactly why politicians are not trusted, they spin to play on fear.

I am not Scottish, but if I had a vote I would be voting Yes.

[mudskipper]

A yes vote will create economic uncertainty, won't it?

Whilst the no-ers may be scare mongering, the yes-ers do seem to be wearing rose tinted specs.

[SueEllen]

It's not a scare story.

A "Yes" vote would lead to financial uncertainty due to issues around financial regulation.

Luckily for Scotland they have their own laws which mirror those of England and also comply with EU directives which means they not all companies will need to leave as they can still trade with the EU.

However due to not knowing what currency will be used and who will be setting interest rates for Scotland will cause problems for businesses and the housing market in obtaining loans and mortgages in the short term. This will cause job losses as in this case the short term will be a few years.

[jemb]

Nope.

I do have a vote and will be voting No. So colours nailed.

Peston has a fairly good view of the impact of a Yes vote here.

If you want to vote Yes, then you need to face the facts that it will be painful.
To some this pain would come as a surprise, to others it's an acceptable part of becoming independent.

[SueEllen]

I do have a vote and will be voting No. So colours nailed.

We know you were a No voter anyway.

The problem is there are enough people in the rUK to vote out any government who pledge to prop up an independent Scotland.

Oh while this is a Scottish issue there are enough people, particularly elderly people who actually vote, who are p*ssed of in the rUK to do that.

[TestMangler]

A yes vote will create economic uncertainty, won't it?

Whilst the no-ers may be scare mongering, the yes-ers do seem to be wearing rose tinted specs.

And current Uk is just bursting with economic certainty isn't it ?

Osborne revising his budget deficit forecasts will lead to massive uncertainty too.

[DodgyAgent]

And current Uk is just bursting with economic certainty isn't it ?

Osborne revising his budget deficit forecasts will lead to massive uncertainty too.

Well it is better than any in the Eurozone that you are so keen to join

[tractor]

...

What's wrong with the Royal Bank of Not Scotland? Has a certain ring to it.

With the news yesterday, I don't know which made me more Smug King Salmond or the 3 desperate, hand-wringing, embarrassing Amigos.

Still, you know what they say 'When thieves fall out....'

[vetran]

doesn't really matter, the three muppets have said they will carry on underwriting Scotland either way.

Salmond is on a winner.

[Old Greg]

Ever since the opinion poll showing the Yes vote in the lead, it has been slightly embarrassing at the amount of scare stories from the establishment to try and sway the Scots from voting Yes.

Can you imagine the level of scare stories we will get if we ever get a vote on coming out of the EU?

Of course banks like RBS & Lloyds will have to move some operations to England because that is where most of their operations are, but to portray it as a mass close down of Scottish business is totally crap.

This is exactly why politicians are not trusted, they spin to play on fear.

I am not Scottish, but if I had a vote I would be voting Yes.

So... I am English and live in England but on balance I think independence would be a good move for Scotland (not sure about the rest of us but that's another question). There is some overplaying of risk by the No campaign, but it seems worse than I thought. Have you got a link to back up the No campaign portraying "a mass close down of Scottish business" - I've certainly not read that but I could have missed it.

As you say politicians are not trusted so in the interest of balance, let's look at the underplaying of risks by the Yes campaign:

1. Plan A: there will be a currency union. In reality it looks very unlikely, and I don;t think in reality either country would want EWNI to have oversight of iScotland's fiscal matters.
2. Plan B: the Panama solution. This will very likely be incompatible with EU membership as iScotland would have no central bank. As Plan A and Plan B look dead in the water, it looks like the pound scots, which is an entirely sensible solution and it can be pegged to sterling (although there are some risks there, but they can always be managed by revaluation which would not see the world end). The problem is, the wavering pro DevoMax voter who is stuck in the middle wants to keep sterling in their pocket, so the YES campaign has to wave the false promises of Plans A and B
3. If Plan A is rejected iScotland will not accept a share of the national debt because sterling is an asset. Sterling is not an asset but a means of exchange. Make a sophist argument all you like, but what will EWNI's view on cooperation be (e.g. easy EU membership?) What will the credit rating agencies think - a default? Will iScotland be allowed into the EU if it doesn't accept the debts?
4. EU membership is guaranteed: Here I think the No campaign is indeed overplaying the risks, but the risks do exist. It is possible that Spain will dig its heels in to prevent membership, but I think unlikely as it is heavily in debt and can be leaned on. More likely that they may dig their heels in over the terms of entry. I would expect they will be allowed an exemption to Schengen as not joining the CTA would be madness. Also an exemption from a path towards joining the Euro as there is a model for EU countries already. But a central bank? This is fundamental to stability, so no exemption there. A share of the rebate? Who knows but there are real risks there.
5. Oil reserves. Who thinks that the YES campaign has gone for a reasonable middle of the road estimate rather than a top estimate?

So vote YES, folks, and you have a bright future, with a much better neighbour than some of my 'angry-still-living-at-home-with-mum' CUK compatriots would suggest, but expect a bumpy and possibly very bumpy ride over a 2 to 10 year period.