Oh dear.
Scots would say
Scots would say
Scots would say ‘yes’ to independence if they could have another vote today
Scots would back independence if a referendum were held today, according to a poll for The Times that highlights just how badly the unionists are faring despite their success in September.
The nationalists were defeated by 45 per cent to 55 per cent six weeks ago — but the mood of Scotland appears to have shifted significantly since then.
YouGov now puts support for separation at 52 per cent compared with 48 per cent for the Union. When those who would not vote or do not know are included, the split is 49 per cent for “yes” and 45 per cent “no”.
The poll was conducted during a catastrophic week for Scottish Labour, which began last Saturday with Johann Lamont resigning as leader and showering criticism on the London HQ.
Today Jim Murphy, the favourite to replace her, will apologise to Scots for the party’s poor performance. The research shows that 43 per cent of Labour supporters now back separation but that Scots overall feel that the party no longer represents their interests.
The poll will give more impetus to “yes” voters who want to see another referendum as soon as possible. Some in the SNP believe that it could be triggered if the UK votes to leave the EU in 2017, but Scots want to stay.
There is significant support in the research for another referendum — despite almost half of Scots (48 per cent) saying that September’s vote has left the country divided. A second poll should take place within the next decade, according to 45 per cent of respondents, although 16 per cent never want another one.
There is also some confidence that there will be another vote within ten years, with 40 per cent believing it will happen. Among those who backed Labour at the last general election, 41 per cent want another chance to vote on separation in that timescale and 37 per cent think they will get it.
The YouGov findings underline how far removed from the Scottish electorate the party, which once had overwhelming support north of the border, has become. Now, only 22 per cent of Scots think that it represents Scotland’s views and interests well. Meanwhile, 65 per cent think that it represents them badly.
Data from the same poll, reported in The Times yesterday, shows the party facing near wipeout in Scotland, with the SNP enjoying a 16-point lead on Westminster voting intentions.
Today’s research shows that Scots think that Ms Lamont was right to quit: 58 per cent agreed with the move, compared with 11 per cent who said that they thought she was wrong.
Her complaints about the Scottish Labour party being a “branch office” of London have also hit home with Scots. Asked how much freedom, if any, they felt the Scottish party had to pursue policies different from those of the national party, only 3 per cent of respondents said that it had a lot, while a quarter thought that it had none at all.
Mr Murphy, the favourite to take over as leader, will acknowledge the deep problems facing the party when he officially launches his campaign. He will seek to lay the blame at the door of the party north of the border, saying that Labour’s ideals were not out of kilter with the people, because they have backed it at Westminster. The problem, he will say, is “our vision for Scotland or, more truthfully our lack of vision”.
“If Labour wants to win we must first change ourselves. The Scottish people want change — they couldn’t be clearer,” he will tell supporters in Edinburgh. “They also want better and many want Labour to be part of that improvement. But when they look at us they think we’ve not listened. It sure looks like that from where they sit so who can blame them?
“I want to apologise because twice Scots have said they didn’t think we were good enough to govern in Scotland — in 2007 and 2011. We didn’t listen to them. That has to change”
YouGov interviewed 1,078 Scottish adults between Oct 27 and 30
Scots would back independence if a referendum were held today, according to a poll for The Times that highlights just how badly the unionists are faring despite their success in September.
The nationalists were defeated by 45 per cent to 55 per cent six weeks ago — but the mood of Scotland appears to have shifted significantly since then.
YouGov now puts support for separation at 52 per cent compared with 48 per cent for the Union. When those who would not vote or do not know are included, the split is 49 per cent for “yes” and 45 per cent “no”.
The poll was conducted during a catastrophic week for Scottish Labour, which began last Saturday with Johann Lamont resigning as leader and showering criticism on the London HQ.
Today Jim Murphy, the favourite to replace her, will apologise to Scots for the party’s poor performance. The research shows that 43 per cent of Labour supporters now back separation but that Scots overall feel that the party no longer represents their interests.
The poll will give more impetus to “yes” voters who want to see another referendum as soon as possible. Some in the SNP believe that it could be triggered if the UK votes to leave the EU in 2017, but Scots want to stay.
There is significant support in the research for another referendum — despite almost half of Scots (48 per cent) saying that September’s vote has left the country divided. A second poll should take place within the next decade, according to 45 per cent of respondents, although 16 per cent never want another one.
There is also some confidence that there will be another vote within ten years, with 40 per cent believing it will happen. Among those who backed Labour at the last general election, 41 per cent want another chance to vote on separation in that timescale and 37 per cent think they will get it.
The YouGov findings underline how far removed from the Scottish electorate the party, which once had overwhelming support north of the border, has become. Now, only 22 per cent of Scots think that it represents Scotland’s views and interests well. Meanwhile, 65 per cent think that it represents them badly.
Data from the same poll, reported in The Times yesterday, shows the party facing near wipeout in Scotland, with the SNP enjoying a 16-point lead on Westminster voting intentions.
Today’s research shows that Scots think that Ms Lamont was right to quit: 58 per cent agreed with the move, compared with 11 per cent who said that they thought she was wrong.
Her complaints about the Scottish Labour party being a “branch office” of London have also hit home with Scots. Asked how much freedom, if any, they felt the Scottish party had to pursue policies different from those of the national party, only 3 per cent of respondents said that it had a lot, while a quarter thought that it had none at all.
Mr Murphy, the favourite to take over as leader, will acknowledge the deep problems facing the party when he officially launches his campaign. He will seek to lay the blame at the door of the party north of the border, saying that Labour’s ideals were not out of kilter with the people, because they have backed it at Westminster. The problem, he will say, is “our vision for Scotland or, more truthfully our lack of vision”.
“If Labour wants to win we must first change ourselves. The Scottish people want change — they couldn’t be clearer,” he will tell supporters in Edinburgh. “They also want better and many want Labour to be part of that improvement. But when they look at us they think we’ve not listened. It sure looks like that from where they sit so who can blame them?
“I want to apologise because twice Scots have said they didn’t think we were good enough to govern in Scotland — in 2007 and 2011. We didn’t listen to them. That has to change”
YouGov interviewed 1,078 Scottish adults between Oct 27 and 30
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