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zeitghost
25th June 2015, 07:25
If not, why not?

Britain braced for mini-ice age as temperatures are set to drop to a 300-year low - BT (http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/britain-braced-for-mini-ice-age-as-temperatures-are-set-to-drop-to-a-300-year-low-11363988285992)

For dear old Freako, this story relates to a lowering in the sun's output which may lead to a return to the conditions of the Maunder Minimum, you know, the low temperatures that don't show up on that fatuous hockey stick curve so beloved of the greenies.

BrilloPad
25th June 2015, 07:55
Sarah Ineson, a Met Office scientist and lead author of the study said: "This research shows that the regional impacts of a grand solar minimum are likely to be larger than the global effect, but it's still nowhere near big enough to override the expected global warming trend due to man-made change.

Another scientist priest spouting nonsense that cannot be justified. <mod snip>

BlasterBates
25th June 2015, 08:16
You can see what's coming.

Basically Global temps are going to take dive, but because this is due to solar activity there will need to be an adjustment to global temperatures to take account of the Solar minimum, so "the adjusted global temperatures" will continue to rise.

Also glacier lengths and sea ice measurements will also need to be adjusted to take solar activity into account, so any increase in ice due to solar activity will be removed.

They'll probably also do the same with precipitation, so although there might be more rain, the adjusted precipitation will be lower so that "in effect" there will be a "permanent drought".

barrydidit
25th June 2015, 08:17
None of which seems to cut much ice (geddit?) in the comments section. Scepticism rules :laugh

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 08:27
None of which seems to cut much ice (geddit?) in the comments section. psuedoscepticism rules :laugh

FTFY

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 08:28
You can see what's coming.

Basically Global temps are going to take a dive

Bookmarked.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 08:31
Bookmarked.

http://www.hotwhopper.com/Charts/global%20surface%20temperature%20decadal%20to%2020 14.png

tractor
25th June 2015, 08:41
Winter is coming......

shaunbhoy
25th June 2015, 08:53
Winter is coming......

You know Nooothing tractor

:igmc:

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 09:06
2000 - 'Snow will become a rare and exciting event'
2015 - 'Buy some skis a sled and a husky

tractor
25th June 2015, 09:13
You know Nooothing tractor

:igmc:

I know enough not to get into a hot pool in a cave with a fur lined ginger who is really Shaunbhoy in a wig :p

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 09:17
Actually, if you go read the actual study, you'll be shocked to discover the press coverage is totally off beam. In the new paper the previous estimate of the probability of a new solar (Maunder) minimum of 8% has increased to 15-20%.

But the timescale for the estimate is by 2050, so 'incipient' does not seem quite the correct term ...

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum : Nature Communications : Nature Publishing Group (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html)

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 09:28
2000 - 'Snow will become a rare and exciting event'
2015 - 'Buy some skis a sled and a husky

Well, if you will get your science from The Independent and bt.com, you are going to form these wierd delusions ....

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 09:31
turn the heating down, QUICK. because it's getting colder

tractor
25th June 2015, 09:38
Bookmarked.

I am sure BB meant some regional rather than global, although if the results of either experiment proves the report correct, of course global means will drop.

We have experienced mini-ice ages before and will again. They happened without help from mankind and they ended, also without help from mankind.

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 09:41
Scotlands coldest summer month for 40 years (http://www.thegwpf.com/scotlands-coldest-summer-month-for-40-years/) ?

OwlHoot
25th June 2015, 09:51
Britain braced for mini-ice age as temperatures are set to drop to a 300-year low - BT (http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/britain-braced-for-mini-ice-age-as-temperatures-are-set-to-drop-to-a-300-year-low-11363988285992)

Yippee! We can go skating on the Thames again :D

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 09:56
Scotlands coldest summer month for 40 years (http://www.thegwpf.com/scotlands-coldest-summer-month-for-40-years/) ?

Add the Scottish Herald to the list.
It does not help to soothe the national mood to recall that last year, temperatures were above the long-term average. Indeed, on June 18, 2014, Cupar in Fife record a sizzling 27C.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 10:03
Actually, and speaking of the Independent, we've been here before. Back in 2007, when the current 'hiatus' in solar activity began - between solar cycles 23 and 24, that paper published an article (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/ray-of-hope-can-the-sun-save-us-from-global-warming-762878.html) musing about what would happen if the sun got stuck in a minimum, with the obligatory reference to the Little Ice Age.


*The tardiness of cycle 24 indicates that we might be entering a period of low solar activity that may counteract man-made greenhouse temperature increases. Some members of the Russian Academy of Sciences say we may be at the start of a period like that seen between 1790 and 1820, a minor decline in solar activity called the Dalton Minimum. They estimate that the Sun's reduced activity may cause a global temperature drop of 1.5C by 2020. This is larger than most sensible predictions of man-made global warming over this period.

However in his review of 2007 (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080114_GISTEMP.pdf), Dr James Hansen of NASA referenced the article and pointed out that


If the sun were to remain ‘stuck’ in its present minimum for several decades, as has been suggested in analogy to the solar Maunder Minimum of the seventeenth century, that negative forcing would be balanced by a 5-year increase of GHGs. Thus, in the current era of rapidly increasing GHGs, such solar variations cannot have a substantial impact on long-term global warming trends.

We'll see. Personally I think the prospects of temperatures 'taking a dive' is taking wishful thinking to a whole new level.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 10:04
Cold spot vs warm planet.


Just today, NASA released its global temperature data for the month of May 2015. It was a scorching 0.71°C (1.3°F) above the long-term average. It is also the hottest first five months of any year ever recorded.

The latest global temperature data are breaking records | John Abraham | Environment | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jun/15/the-latest-global-temperature-data-are-breaking-records)

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 10:07
Nonsense. Hansens computer model predicted an ice age by 2030

tractor
25th June 2015, 10:27
Nonsense. Hansens computer model predicted an ice age by 2030

If Hansen is as good at predicting climate change as he is predicting football results, I think we can discount it.

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 10:50
If Hansen is as good at predicting climate change as he is predicting football results, I think we can discount it.

:eyes

Not many people know about the 'Climate world cup' footie match that was held in Copenhagen a few years ago.
The climate alarmists scored early, then predicted a steady increase in goals. 'one goal in five minutes means 18 goals to nil' predicted the pundit pj 'grapher' Clarke.
The sceptics made great runs down the field because the alarmists had too many players on the left wing, they scored and then the alarmists went down to ten men when the captain, m mann was sent off for bringing a fake hockey stick onto the pitch.
There was a quiet period up to the full time whistle.
With the score line at 1-1 , the alarmists were ecstatic. 'I have a link here showing that at 18-0 ,all our predictions were spot on' - grapher Clarke.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 10:52
Nonsense. Hansens computer model predicted an ice age by 2030

You mean Rasool & Schneider (1971)? The paper that applied Hansen's mie-scattering equations that he developed for the atmosphere of Venus and speculated what might happen would happen if Earthly airborne aerosol levels increased by a factor of 4?

'Hansen's' climate model was not developed for another decade or more. Neither it nor he have ever predicted cooling. I know this because he said so


...it was a bit of a surprise when I began to be inundated a few days ago with reports that I had issued proclamations five years earlier, in 1971, that the Earth was headed into an ice age. Here is how this swift-boating works. First on 19 September 2007 a Washington Times article by John McCaslin reported that a 9 July 1971 article by Victor Cohn in the Washington Post had been discovered with the title “U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming”. The scientist, S.I. Rasool, is reported as saying that the world “could be as little as 50 or 60 years away from a disastrous new ice age”. This is an old story: Rasool and (Steve) Schneider published a paper in Science on that day noting that if human-made aerosols (small particles in the air) increased by a factor of four, other things being equal, they could cause massive global cooling. At Steve’s 60th birthday celebration I argued that the Rasool and Schneider paper was a useful scientific paper, an example of hypothesis testing, in the spirit of good science. But what is the news today? Mr. McCaslin reported that Rasool and Hansen were colleagues at NASA and “Mr. Rasool came to his chilling conclusions by resorting in part to a new computer program developed by Mr. Hansen that studied clouds above Venus.” What was that program? It was a ‘Mie scattering’ code I had written to calculate light scattering by spherical particles. Indeed, it was useful for Venus studies, as it helped determine the size and refractive index of the particles in the clouds that veil the surface of Venus. I was glad to let Rasool and Schneider use that program to calculate scattering by aerosols. But Mie scattering functions, although more complex, are like sine and cosine mathematical functions, simply a useful tool for many problems. Allowing this scattering function to be used by other people does not in any way make me responsible for a climate theory. Yet as this story passes from one swift boater to another it gets juicier and juicier ...

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2007/20070924_Grandfather.pdf

Don't believe everything you read in the press, or if you do, don't call yourself a 'sceptic'.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 10:57
:eyes

Not many people know about the 'Climate world cup' footie match that was held in Copenhagen a few years ago.
The climate alarmists scored early, then predicted a steady increase in goals. 'one goal in five minutes means 18 goals to nil' predicted the pundit pj 'grapher' Clarke.
The sceptics made great runs down the field because the alarmists had too many players on the left wing, they scored and then the alarmists went down to ten men when the captain, m mann was sent off for bringing a fake hockey stick onto the pitch.
There was a quiet period up to the full time whistle.
With the score line at 1-1 , the alarmists were ecstatic. 'I have a link here showing that at 18-0 ,all our predictions were spot on' - grapher Clarke.


You have a bit of a gift for fiction, you should keep it up.

Oh, I see you already did (http://forums.contractoruk.com/general/107182-have-we-done-incipient-mini-ice-age-3.html#post2109799).

original PM
25th June 2015, 11:22
:eyes

Not many people know about the 'Climate world cup' footie match that was held in Copenhagen a few years ago.
The climate alarmists scored early, then predicted a steady increase in goals. 'one goal in five minutes means 18 goals to nil' predicted the pundit pj 'grapher' Clarke.
The sceptics made great runs down the field because the alarmists had too many players on the left wing, they scored and then the alarmists went down to ten men when the captain, m mann was sent off for bringing a fake hockey stick onto the pitch.
There was a quiet period up to the full time whistle.
With the score line at 1-1 , the alarmists were ecstatic. 'I have a link here showing that at 18-0 ,all our predictions were spot on' - grapher Clarke.

I suppose I could point out that you missed the bit where the organisers of the match declared the actual result null and void and went with the projected results as that better represented the truth they wanted to show.

In a graph

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 11:24
You have a bit of a gift for fiction, you should keep it up.



do something useful. go and plant a tree

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 11:27
do something useful. go and plant a tree

I might. Meanwhile, could you please mark which of your posts are intended as entertaining fiction and which are reality-based?

It's not always clear.

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 11:30
In other news, no one can be saddened by this. it's been a great (http://polarbearscience.com/2015/06/24/many-polar-bears-cubs-seen-in-svalbard-this-year-says-norwegian-biologist/) year for polar bears.

alluvial
25th June 2015, 11:42
In other news, no one can be saddened by this. it's been a great (http://polarbearscience.com/2015/06/24/many-polar-bears-cubs-seen-in-svalbard-this-year-says-norwegian-biologist/) year for polar bears.

No, you're looking at it the wrong way. It is deeply sad news as many more cuddly polar bears will now die due to global warming.

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 11:48
No, you're looking at it the wrong way. It is deeply sad news as many more cuddly polar bears will now die due to global warming.

:eyes:eyes

this Polar bear walks into a bar, right.....

BlasterBates
25th June 2015, 12:07
There are two types of facts in this world:

Greenpeace facts (http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/Endangered-Species/)


Global warming is the most serious threat to polar bears. Rising arctic temperatures are reducing both the extent and duration of the sea ice polar bears depend on for hunting, forcing them to spend more time on land away from vital food supplies.



Non-Greenpeace Facts (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/08/15/good-news-for-polar-bears-is-bad-news-for-global-warming-alarmists/)


Crockford explains why the colder temperatures yearned for by global warming alarmists may negatively affect polar bear populations.

Take your pick.

This is rather like global temperature graphs, there are global temperature graphs that go up and there are global temperature graphs that go down.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 12:41
There are two types of facts in this world:

Take your pick.

I pick the fact based on the peer-reviewed literature (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02753.x/abstract), written by experts with a long history of hands-on field study and publication.

I am less keen on the fact based on an unreviewed blog post that examines one area of the Arctic in one season and extrapolates an apparent correlation between ice thickness and polar bear numbers to the whole Arctic and declares the literature (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01603.x/abstract) to be wrong. Written by Susan Crockford (http://www.desmogblog.com/directory/vocabulary/4186) - who self-describes as 'a different kind of polar bear expert than those that study bears in the field' and who thinks that 'having a different background means I know things they do not and this makes my contribution valuable and valid.'

There's open-minded, and then there's gullible. Take your pick.

http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Letter-to-University-of-Victoria.pdf

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 12:48
Polar Bear Walks into a bar. ....





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and the barman says 'Why the long pause?'

BrilloPad
25th June 2015, 13:10
A man and his pet polar bear walk into a bar. It's about 5pm, but they're ready for a good night of drinking.
They start off slowly, watching TV, drinking beer, eating peanuts. As the night goes on they move to mixed drinks, and then shooters, one after the other.
Finally, the bartender says: "Last call."
So, the man says, "One more for me... and one more for my polar bear."
The bartender sets them up and they shoot them back. Suddenly, the polar bear falls over dead.
The man throws some money on the bar, puts on his coat and starts to leave.
The bartender, yells: "Hey buddy, you can't just leave that lyin' there."
To which the man replies: "That's not a lion, that's a polar bear."

BlasterBates
25th June 2015, 13:37
I pick the fact based on the peer-reviewed literature (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02753.x/abstract), written by experts with a long history of hands-on field study and publication.

I am less keen on the fact based on an unreviewed blog post that examines one area of the Arctic in one season and extrapolates an apparent correlation between ice thickness and polar bear numbers to the whole Arctic and declares the literature (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01603.x/abstract) to be wrong. Written by Susan Crockford (http://www.desmogblog.com/directory/vocabulary/4186) - who self-describes as 'a different kind of polar bear expert than those that study bears in the field' and who thinks that 'having a different background means I know things they do not and this makes my contribution valuable and valid.'

There's open-minded, and then there's gullible. Take your pick.

http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Letter-to-University-of-Victoria.pdf

Agree with that, and yes you are :D

http://http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2011-07-28-polar-bear-scientist-investigation_n.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2011-07-28-polar-bear-scientist-investigation_n.htm)

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 13:44
Agree with that, and yes you are :D

http://http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2011-07-28-polar-bear-scientist-investigation_n.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2011-07-28-polar-bear-scientist-investigation_n.htm)

You seem to think that the mere fact of an investigation implies guilt. Certainly not in Monnet's case.


In December 2013, The Department of the Interior settled a whistleblower suit initiated by Monnett. They cleared his record of any reference to wrongdoing and awarded him $100,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Monnett

Perhaps best to check the outcome of an investigation before posting about it?

darmstadt
25th June 2015, 14:14
http://www.spletkomat.com/slike05/Ice%20Age%20-%20Mini%20figurines%202.jpg

BlasterBates
25th June 2015, 15:24
You seem to think that the mere fact of an investigation implies guilt. Certainly not in Monnet's case.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Monnett

Perhaps best to check the outcome of an investigation before posting about it?

Not guilty but removed from his duties

Scientist settles in iconic 'drowning polar bears' row with US agency | Environment | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/04/charles-monnett-polar-bears-global-warming-settlement)

So you can proudly proclaim he wasn't a criminal.

But is his science sound?

EternalOptimist
25th June 2015, 15:32
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSNmaBWtk0LEvT5pMWioZDDqrOfulIbW TsllGtCWDX4GKF-Ihttmg
Apocalyptic fear monger in 1600


https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRqwHk9o75Nsj-zQU-6BdUiU6KEdEBAPnOT6YwMD5T0XxEthA6L
the introduction of printing only made the Apocalyptic fear monger louder


https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcShOWzkt3gU8EPpKHavGpvIy9FBCDFhG u9yzW9UpseSm0dymUhpMA
we're doomed, doomed I say


https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQVT0ZSkjplfx4sagaN1FGT0yG0pq5Lc pX776Y2Dwa_Ep_thcIz
fear monger in 1900's




https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSdTqzySxTn5bPpNaTMEnP8RQz6C-0Juq1nMyTOlnm0GBCn-dPc
and now he has the internet

tractor
25th June 2015, 15:56
You seem to think that the mere fact of an investigation implies guilt. Certainly not in Monnet's case.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Monnett

Perhaps best to check the outcome of an investigation before posting about it?

Yes because all investigations are soundly based and their conclusions beyond reproach. Especially those conducted by or on behalf of the UK or US Governments.

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 16:15
Jeez. He was 65 years of age. He took his settlement and retired on a full pension, saying he could not, in good conscience, "work for an agency that promotes dishonesty, punishes those who actually stand up for scientific integrity, and that cannot tolerate scientific work not pre-shaped to serve its agenda."

The investigation, apart form being comically inept, was probably political, his employer was involved in a court battle with Shell to drill in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas; his removal coincided with the granting of those permits. He was not told what the allegations against him were nor who was making them, however his computers and notes were confiscated and he was placed on administrative leave. When the sometimes farcical enquiry after 27 months, cleared him of misconduct, he was reinstated but constructively demoted, moved away from his important research to a different division. Of course he retired.


But is his science sound?

Yes. He was cleared of any scientific misconduct.

http://www.peer.org/news/news-releases/2013/12/04/vindicated-arctic-scientist-retires-with-cash-settlement/

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 16:20
Yes because all investigations are soundly based and their conclusions beyond reproach. Especially those conducted by or on behalf of the UK or US Governments.

Blogger Eli Rabett (http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/it-was-dr-monnett-in-email-leaking-to.html) covered the affair well. It was an overtly hostile investigation: if they had anything that would stand up in court they'd have used it.

Scientist Cleared In Polar Bear Controversy : NPR (http://www.npr.org/2012/09/28/161987243/scientist-cleared-in-polar-bear-controversy)
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110802/full/476016a.html
http://www.nature.com/news/polar-bear-scientist-opposed-industry-research-initiative-1.11157

pjclarke
25th June 2015, 16:58
https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR6vHol49V7VzUEGn1F79thpfSXEUQOj R3orhQaasQZZve-qusk

BlasterBates
25th June 2015, 18:17
Climate Policy Expert goes to jail (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/epa-climate-policy-expert-sentenced-32-months-fraud-20131219)

pjclarke
26th June 2015, 09:07
Climate Policy Expert goes to jail (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/epa-climate-policy-expert-sentenced-32-months-fraud-20131219)

Old news and so what? Ever heard of climate sceptic Dr Oliver Manuel (https://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/)?

BlasterBates
26th June 2015, 09:42
Old news and so what? Ever heard of climate sceptic Dr Oliver Manuel (https://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/)?

That's interesting does seem to be somewhat unhinged.

What about this guy:

IPCC Chief Resigns after Sexual Harassment Accusations - Scientific American (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ipcc-chief-resigns-after-sexual-harassment-accusations/)

Strikes me as being somewhat unhinged, or has he also been exonerated?

pjclarke
26th June 2015, 10:01
That's interesting does seem to be somewhat unhinged.


That's one word for it (http://journalistatheart.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/dr-oliver-manuel-arrested-for-multiple.html).

A more paranoid person than I might speculate that once smearing Pachuri financially blew up in their faces (http://www.monbiot.com/2010/08/26/the-smearing-of-an-innocent-man/), his enemies went trawling his private life for dirt. A sad end to a career but the effect on the work of the IPCC is minor as his tenure was almost over anyway. The point is, this guilt by association is not particularly valid, relevant or substantive. Indeed, from your link


There will no doubt be some climate change 'sceptics' who seek to use Dr Pachauri's resignation as an opportunity to attack the IPCC. Such efforts should be recognised as the act of desperate people who have simply lost the argument over whether human activities are primarily driving climate change, and who cannot face up to the truth.

BlasterBates
26th June 2015, 10:26
That's one word for it (http://journalistatheart.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/dr-oliver-manuel-arrested-for-multiple.html).

A more paranoid person than I might speculate that once smearing Pachuri financially blew up in their faces (http://www.monbiot.com/2010/08/26/the-smearing-of-an-innocent-man/), his enemies went trawling his private life for dirt. A sad end to a career but the effect on the work of the IPCC is minor as his tenure was almost over anyway. The point is, this guilt by association is not particularly valid, relevant or substantive. Indeed, from your link

Yes a sad end. It looks like he's been indicted for sexual harassment.

Ex-IPCC Chair Indicted for Sexual Harassment (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/05/24/ex-ipcc-chair-indicted-for-sexual-harassment/)

DimPrawn
14th July 2015, 09:44
Cold spot vs warm planet.



The latest global temperature data are breaking records | John Abraham | Environment | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jun/15/the-latest-global-temperature-data-are-breaking-records)

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2015_v61.png

Where's the May 15 peak gone?

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 11:49
Where's the May 15 peak gone?

:ohwell <Sigh> Different dataset. UAH (University of Alabama Huntsville) is a satellite record that attempts to reconstruct the temperature of the lower troposphere from measurements of microwave brightness (using a model btw), the NASA dataset is constructed from ground based thermometers and sea surface temperatures. Over the long term the two datasets have a similar trend, but they do not always agree on a month by month basis, the troposphere tends to respond more strongly to ENSO, for example.

As the surface based data currently represents the strongest warming, the pseudosceptics at the moment prefer the satellites, calling the surface record 'fiddled' or 'adjusted' and the satellite data pristine. This may change if we get a strong El Nino. And it ain't so - the satellite record is stitched together from several different satellites and so must be adjusted for differences in calibration, the platforms suffer from orbital drift, another adjustment, basically a guess, they do not cover the poles, where warming is strongest, they are not accurate looking sideways over high ground, etc etc.

This is not to say that the satellites are 'wrong' and the ground data 'right'. Two agencies (UAH and RSS) analyse the satellite data using different assumptions and adjustments and are in good agreement, but the NASA and UAH datasets are measuring different physical quantities, and after all, the surface is where people live. BTW Dr Carl Mears, head of RSS, says the surface datasets are 'more reliable'.

Troposphere temperatures are also measured by weather balloon-based radiosondes, here's a fascinating discussion:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/06/19/desperate-for-a-pause/

DimPrawn
15th July 2015, 12:08
There's so match patching, adjusting, smoothing, interpolating and modelling no wonder the warmists can show any type of climate anomaly they like.

It's basically junk science. Garbage in, garbage out as they say.

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 12:10
There's so match patching, adjusting, smoothing, interpolating and modelling no wonder the warmists can show any type of climate anomaly they like.

It's basically junk science. Garbage in, garbage out as they say.

Whatever. I guess the Arctic is just melting on a whim.

EternalOptimist
15th July 2015, 12:20
Arctic ice in july is the highest its been since 2005


arctic ice is up
Antarctic ice is up
polar bears are up

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 12:31
Arctic ice in july is the highest its been since 2005


Usual standard of accuracy.

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c7aa722f970b-800wi

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 12:35
and relevance http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2014/08/Figure3-350x261.png

EternalOptimist
15th July 2015, 12:44
wrong again pj (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php)

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 13:35
wrong again pj (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php)

Obsolete graph. The current one shows ice extent 1 sd below climatology. Not exactly compelling evidence for non-melt. :laugh

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php)

DodgyAgent
15th July 2015, 13:42
Here is another one: Lily Kember: Shame on the journos who smeared Plane Stupid activists as 'posh'. Climate change doesn't care what class you are | Comment is free | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/10/plane-stupid-lily-kember-stansted)

We have less than seven years to change our future. The Arctic ice is melting at an alarming rate and once that's gone, the world will start to warm beyond our control. We are on track for a +6C future, which will lead to the extinction of thousands of species and millions of people from all races, classes and walks of life. Things are going to get very, very nasty – and for the whole human race, not just a bunch of poor people in a far-off land which we wouldn't be able to find on a map.

That was in 2008. It is now 2015 - another typical alarmist boLLoc*s

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 13:50
Here is another one: Lily Kember: Shame on the journos who smeared Plane Stupid activists as 'posh'. Climate change doesn't care what class you are | Comment is free | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/10/plane-stupid-lily-kember-stansted)

We have less than seven years to change our future. The Arctic ice is melting at an alarming rate and once that's gone, the world will start to warm beyond our control. We are on track for a +6C future, which will lead to the extinction of thousands of species and millions of people from all races, classes and walks of life. Things are going to get very, very nasty – and for the whole human race, not just a bunch of poor people in a far-off land which we wouldn't be able to find on a map.

That was in 2008. It is now 2015 - another typical alarmist boLLoc*s

For completeness, this where the 'seven years to change our future' link leads to ... Too late? Why scientists say we should expect the worst of global warming | Environment | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/dec/09/poznan-copenhagen-global-warming-targets-climate-change)

Its about targets, and long term effects, not imminent flaming purgatory.

BlasterBates
15th July 2015, 14:23
Absolutely, Its about targets.....

Yes that's right.

Germany is the only major country which is seriously gone for renewables:

Germany's renewable energy, a total failure (http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-10)

It's actually resulting in increasing CO2 emissions.

The whole green movement isn't about reducing CO2 emissions or saving the rain forests, it's about targets.

i.e. how many wind mills can you put up, how many hectares of rain forest can you tear down to grow "renewables".

It's all about a "green dogma".

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 14:38
Yes that's right.

Germany is the only major country which is seriously gone for renewables:

It's actually resulting in increasing CO2 emissions.

(Blah).

No. 2014 emissions were lower than 2013 - the decline in emissions has slowed, mainly because coal has replaced decommissioned nuclear - temporarily.

BlasterBates
15th July 2015, 15:07
No. 2014 emissions were lower than 2013 - the decline in emissions has slowed, mainly because coal has replaced decommissioned nuclear - temporarily.

To be expected because of a mild Winter, you'll see it climb back up again.

pjclarke
15th July 2015, 21:08
The claim that


Arctic ice in july is the highest its been since 2005

based on an obsolete graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) (ignoring for the time being the statistical absurdity of trying to derive a trend from two datapoints) put me in mind of another eternally optimistic claim from a month or so ago ...


Greenland is gaining trillions of tons of ice, in THE MIDDLE of the melt season

which he seemed to get from a blog post (https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/alarmists-face-disaster-in-greenland/) from Tony Heller, who is known in climate circles for being unable to lie straight in bed, linking to a graph from the DMI.

It was not the middle of the melt season, it was in fact the beginning. the middle would be about now. Shall we check back to see how the Greenland ice is getting on, with those trillions of tons being accumulated?

http://beta.dmi.dk/uploads/tx_dmidatastore/webservice/b/m/s/d/e/accumulatedsmb.png

Oh dear. The Greenland ice, as measured by surface mass balance, has in fact been disappearing at an unprecedented rate.

Can't be comfortable, jamming one's hands ever more firmly over one's ears, chanting LA LA LA at ever increasing volume.


Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

BlasterBates
16th July 2015, 10:43
I take it back, obviously the German efforts are bearing fruit.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png

pjclarke
16th July 2015, 10:56
Four years hardly qualifies as 'climate', any more than 6 months does.

Arctic sea ice maximum reaches lowest extent on record | National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-reaches-lowest-extent-record)

BlasterBates
16th July 2015, 11:07
Four years hardly qualifies as 'climate', any more than 6 months does.

Arctic sea ice maximum reaches lowest extent on record | National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-reaches-lowest-extent-record)

8 years and counting

pjclarke
16th July 2015, 11:36
8 years and counting

Bookmarked for September. :wink

EternalOptimist
24th July 2015, 12:05
Bookmarked for September. :wink

why wait till September ?

Worst Ice Conditions In 20 Years Derail (http://www.thegwpf.com/worst-ice-conditions-in-20-years-derails-arctic-global-warming-research-plans/)Arctic Global Warming Expedition

pjclarke
24th July 2015, 12:36
why wait till September ?

Worst Ice Conditions In 20 Years Derail (http://www.thegwpf.com/worst-ice-conditions-in-20-years-derails-arctic-global-warming-research-plans/)Arctic Global Warming Expedition

Well, because looking at a single geographical place at a single point in time tells you nowt about the long term trend, and also because Hudson Bay lies outside the Arctic Circle.

So, I will see how the annual September minimum fits in with the long term diminishing trend (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/ArcticEscalator500.gif), its not looking good .

Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/)

BlasterBates
24th July 2015, 12:38
another post to bookmark

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png

EternalOptimist
24th July 2015, 12:45
Hey BB, I have a serious question for you.

Now that the CAGW theory is a busted flush what will be the next doom and gloom disaster that pj and his ilk will follow in an attempt to gain power ?

Ozone depletion
de-oxygenation
Ocean acidification
plague

pjclarke
24th July 2015, 12:55
Hey BB, I have a serious question for you. Now that the CAGW theory is a busted flush

And when did you stop beating your wife?

EternalOptimist
24th July 2015, 13:18
And when did you stop beating your wife?

if you stop telling lies
I'll promise to stop telling the truth

arctic ice is up
Antarctic ice is up
Polar bears are up

pjclarke
24th July 2015, 14:01
if you stop telling lies
I'll promise to stop telling the truth

arctic ice is up
Antarctic ice is up
Polar bears are up

https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/global.jpg

And the Stern thing was not exactly a reality-based statement, was it now?

pjclarke
24th July 2015, 14:47
another post to bookmark



Yep, loadsa graphs out there. That one is showing this years ice well below the long term mean, and by eyeball already outside the grey 1 standard deviation band.

BlasterBates
24th July 2015, 14:54
Yep, loadsa graphs out there. That one is showing this years ice well below the long term mean, and by eyeball already outside the grey 1 standard deviation band.

It's actually in the grey, you might want to get your eyes tested.

"Eyeballing" isn't a very scientific way of analysing data, so I would suggest some elementary reading. You might find it helpful.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

EternalOptimist
24th July 2015, 15:01
the arctic was supposed to be ice-free by now, yet there are ships getting stuck in the ice. just like last year when we had a grand expedition to Antartica to show the devastating effects of global warming
what happened ? it got stuck in the ice and they had to be helicoptered off


https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRoBHmhZWKKaUyCg48dOMBby19a0wlit vxqL2mLRo8lQN1hGthd8Q

pjclarke
24th July 2015, 15:11
It's actually in the grey, you might want to get your eyes tested.

"Eyeballing" isn't a very scientific way of analysing data, so I would suggest some elementary reading. You might find it helpful.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

Eyeballing is often enough - just means I CBA to dig any deeper than looking at the graph, thanks for the correction, if it is not outside the 1sd range yet, it soon will be.

Here's another one (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

DodgyAgent
24th July 2015, 15:19
And of course there is no problem in the world that is not caused by climate change - funny that :laugh

O'Malley links ISIS to climate change | TheHill (http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/248640-martin-omalley-links-isis-to-climate-change)

EternalOptimist
24th July 2015, 15:26
And of course there is no problem in the world that is not caused by climate change - funny that :laugh

O'Malley links ISIS to climate change | TheHill (http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/248640-martin-omalley-links-isis-to-climate-change)


:freaky:

I'll tell you how intellectually corrupt they are. They declared a permenant drought in Australia due to global warming. So they built a desal plant (never been used) and straight away the rain came down causing floods.
what did they blame the floods on ? you got it. global warming

DodgyAgent
25th July 2015, 09:06
It was Thatcher that first raised concerns over climate change. Instead of piggy backing on that in order to convert people on the right of the political spectrum the left have ignored. As I say climate change has been hijacked by the left Amber Rudd has a real point about the climate change cause being tainted by excessive leftism - nicktyrone.com (http://nicktyrone.com/amber-rudd-has-a-real-point-about-the-climate-change-cause-being-tainted-by-excessive-leftism/)

BlasterBates
25th July 2015, 09:22
Hey BB, I have a serious question for you.

Now that the CAGW theory is a busted flush what will be the next doom and gloom disaster that pj and his ilk will follow in an attempt to gain power ?

Ozone depletion
de-oxygenation
Ocean acidification
plague

scary

What is Ocean Acidification? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F)

pjclarke
25th July 2015, 10:02
:freaky:

I'll tell you how intellectually corrupt they are. They declared a permenant drought in Australia due to global warming. So they built a desal plant (never been used) and straight away the rain came down causing floods.
what did they blame the floods on ? you got it. global warming



I guess the Australians prefer not to base infrastructure projects on single weather events. Given the trend in rainfall in SE Australia is down, and all the scientists project that this will continue, what are the odds that the desal plants will come in handy before very long?


Since 1970 there has been a 17 per cent decline in average winter rainfall in the southwest of Australia. The southeast has experienced a 15 per cent decline in late autumn and early winter rainfall since the mid-1990s, with a 25 per cent reduction in average rainfall across April and May. Declining rainfall in the southwest has been statistically significant over the recent period, and has occurred as a series of step changes. The decline in this region has also been characterised by a lack of very wet winters

[…]

The reduction in rainfall is amplified in streamflow in our rivers and streams. In the far southwest, streamflow has declined by more than 50 per cent since the mid-1970s. In the far southeast, streamflow during the 1997–2009 Millennium Drought was around half the long-term average.

Strewth, let's put the optimist in charge!

State of the Climate 2014: Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/)

EternalOptimist
25th July 2015, 10:08
Most aussies would rather drink their own urine than spend billions on that white elephant. Tell you what though pj, I like you so much, you can have mine.

BlasterBates
25th July 2015, 10:32
This confirms what pj was saying...

Rain wreaks havoc as Googong dam spills again and roads hit with traffic chaos (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/wet-weather-closes-roads-and-sporting-grounds-across-canberra-20150617-ghpu6c.html)

..oh hang on

pjclarke
25th July 2015, 11:14
It was Thatcher that first raised concerns over climate change. Instead of piggy backing on that in order to convert people on the right of the political spectrum the left have ignored. As I say climate change has been hijacked by the left Amber Rudd has a real point about the climate change cause being tainted by excessive leftism - nicktyrone.com (http://nicktyrone.com/amber-rudd-has-a-real-point-about-the-climate-change-cause-being-tainted-by-excessive-leftism/)

Mrs Thatcher, reportedly more proud of being the first PM with a science degree than the first female premiere, gave her speech mentioning climate change to the Royal Society in 1988, the same year that James Hansen gave his testimony to Congress, so I think she can claim with some validity to be the first major politician to take the science seriously.

In my opinion, neither Left nor Right has covered itself in glory, although in this country we passed the Climate Change Act with near unanimity, the targets set were less than those required to be effective since then Governments have taken actions that they must know mean the targets will not be met.

The Right, especially the American libertarian right has its own problems

Environmentalism poses a problem for libertarian ideology | MattBruenig | Politics (http://mattbruenig.com/2011/12/21/environmentalism-poses-a-problem-for-libertarian-ideology/)

As Nick Tyrone (nearly) said


My main worry is that CUK becomes like America in this regard – where climate change denial is almost de rigueur on the Right. Convince conservatives that climate change is a crock and your chances of doing anything about it shrink accordingly. Particularly when they are going to be in power for the foreseeable future. :eek

pjclarke
25th July 2015, 11:23
This confirms what pj was saying...

Rain wreaks havoc as Googong dam spills again and roads hit with traffic chaos (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/wet-weather-closes-roads-and-sporting-grounds-across-canberra-20150617-ghpu6c.html)

..oh hang on

Too little, too late. Drought: related information, Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml)

pjclarke
25th July 2015, 11:24
the arctic was supposed to be ice-free by now,

Only in the most extreme, outlying projections. The IPCC midrange forecast puts the ice free date nearer 2100.

HTH

Zero Liability
25th July 2015, 11:34
The Right, especially the American libertarian right has its own problems

Environmentalism poses a problem for libertarian ideology | MattBruenig | Politics (http://mattbruenig.com/2011/12/21/environmentalism-poses-a-problem-for-libertarian-ideology/)


It's just a piece of fluff trying to swipe at libertarianism without even engaging the materials on it. Who gives a shite?

pjclarke
25th July 2015, 11:52
It's just a piece of fluff trying to swipe at libertarianism without even engaging the materials on it. Who gives a tulipe?

St. George does. More fluff


Over the Christmas break I read what I believe is the most important environmental essay of the past 12 months. Though it begins with a mildly unfair criticism of*a column of mine, I won't hold it against the author. In a simple and very short tract,*Matt Bruenig presents*a devastating challenge to those who call themselves libertarians, and explains why they have no choice but to deny climate change and other environmental problems.

Why libertarians must deny climate change, in one short take | George Monbiot | Environment | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/06/why-libertarians-must-deny-climage-change)

Zero Liability
25th July 2015, 12:16
Fluff indeed.

BlasterBates
25th July 2015, 12:54
Too little, too late. Drought: related information, Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml)

Then what we need is more of this:

European Green Policies (http://www.ibtimes.com.au/europes-green-policies-contributing-large-scale-deforestation-usa-1450797)

Windfarms (http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/wind-farm-threat-to-forests-32970)

That should sort the problem out.

EternalOptimist
25th July 2015, 13:45
Only in the most extreme, outlying projections. The IPCC midrange forecast puts the ice free date nearer 2100.

HTH

One of the problems with dealing with the eco-loons is distinguishing between the outliers and the out-and-out-liars