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AtW
8th February 2016, 17:10
Financial market turmoil could blow a hole in Osborne's budget plans, says IFS

Chancellor's 'inflexible' budget surplus rule could come at a high cost, warns IFS, leading to big tax rises ( :eek ) or spending cuts (AtW's comment: yeah right)

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03153/george-osborne_3153363b.jpg

" Financial market turmoil and slower pay growth have blown a hole in George Osborne's plans to balance the books by 2020, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The IFS said the Chancellor was "boxed in" by a rule that requires the government to run a budget surplus every year from 2019-20 "in normal times" - or when the economy is growing at an annual rate of 1pc or more.

This means Britain faces the prospect of "big tax rises or spending cuts with very little notice to ensure the rule is met", the IFS said in its annual Green Budget.

The think-tank said the recent turbulence meant tax receipts could be much weaker than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Government's fiscal watchdog, forecast just three months ago.

Last week, the Bank of England downgraded its projections for growth, wages and inflation amid a gloomier global outlook.

The IFS said weaker pay growth was likely to reduce tax revenues by £5bn over the next four years compared with current forecasts.

The turbulence in global markets could lower capital tax receipts by a further £2bn unless share prices recovered, the think-tank said.

This, combined with £8bn worth of unfunded tax cuts to come this parliament meant Mr Osborne "could be forced into additional spending cuts or tax rises if economic and fiscal forecasts again turn out unfavourably".

Even if the Chancellor's plans remain on course in 2019, the IFS said past errors in official forecasts meant there was a one-in-four chance more belt tightening would be needed by the end of the decade.

"There may be more tough decisions to come," said Paul Johnson, IFS director. "

More from the source: Financial market turmoil could blow a hole in Osborne's budget plans, says IFS - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12146149/Osbornes-inflexible-budget-surplus-rule-could-come-at-a-high-cost-warns-IFS.html)

But as Waldorf says, it would have been a lot worse under Labour :eyes

DimPrawn
8th February 2016, 17:16
Atw, why not get yourself a hot girlfriend and stop obsessing over doom, gidiot and DFS sofas?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/01/12/article-0-0F1468C100000578-288_468x313.jpg

AtW
8th February 2016, 17:42
Atw, why not get yourself a hot girlfriend and stop obsessing over doom, gidiot and DFS sofas?

Can't I have the best of both worlds? :laugh


Might need a new sofa if I close purchase on my flat, got survey people coming in tomorrow :eyes

centurian
9th February 2016, 07:25
But as Waldorf says, it would have been a lot worse under Labour :eyes

Labour never promised to get rid of the deficit, so they wouldn't have missed any targets. Their promise on the deficit was so vague and full of caveats - that the two Ed's could claim success no matter what happened.

So even if we end up in the same level of tulip, it would have sounded better under Labour.

But seriously, Osborne is being hammered for having the balls to set a hard target. He might be a total tulip-up, but at least he's made it easier to measure his degree of tulip-up ness.

Gumbo Robot
9th February 2016, 08:45
Don't worry. AEP says there's near zero chance of a recession. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12147100/Goldman-Sachs-sees-near-zero-risk-of-UK-recession-despite-market-tantrum.html)

FatLazyContractor
9th February 2016, 08:46
Atw, why not get yourself a hot girlfriend and stop obsessing over doom, gidiot and DFS sofas?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/01/12/article-0-0F1468C100000578-288_468x313.jpg

Mods, ban Dimprawn for posting pics of MFs wife :mad

seanraaron
9th February 2016, 09:10
Do these clowns really believe the BS they sold the public, i.e., the national economy is run like a household economy? The whole thing is fiction; the only thing these morons need to do is not print too much money. As long as the markets are happy enough that things are ticking over we're fine. There's no reason to mandate a budget surplus or balance the budget unless you're happy to keep on squeezing the majority of wage earners (hint, not people earning more than £50k) and a masochist. And idiots actually thought these guys would be better than Labour at running the economy?

Chuck
9th February 2016, 09:15
And idiots actually thought these guys would be better than Labour at running the economy?

Fortunately, they are. Just not by much.

BrilloPad
9th February 2016, 09:18
Do these clowns really believe the BS they sold the public, i.e., the national economy is run like a household economy? The whole thing is fiction; the only thing these morons need to do is not print too much money. As long as the markets are happy enough that things are ticking over we're fine. There's no reason to mandate a budget surplus or balance the budget unless you're happy to keep on squeezing the majority of wage earners (hint, not people earning more than £50k) and a masochist. And idiots actually thought these guys would be better than Labour at running the economy?

How is that working out then? :rolleyes:

I thought money printing, ZIRP, immigration and rising house prices were what is needed? :confused:

PurpleGorilla
9th February 2016, 09:19
So glad Osborne fixed the roof while the sun was shining.

BrilloPad
9th February 2016, 09:27
So glad Osborne fixed the roof while the sun was shining.

You call this the sun shining? Until there is an interest rate rise I consider it a continuation of 2008....

cretinscourge
9th February 2016, 09:34
There's no reason to ... balance the budget

Ah yes the current idea du jour of the chattering classes.
We aren't really sure what happens if we don't balance the budget in the long run, but we do have an example of a country that threw caution to the wind in that respect: Greece.
Doh!

DimPrawn
9th February 2016, 09:35
You call this the sun shining? Until there is an interest rate rise I consider it a continuation of 2008....

All the boom and bust is great if you time it well. Buy property and shares, double your money, sell now, buy it all again in a few years time at half the cost, rinse and repeat, move to a tax haven.

The Tory path to riches.

administrator
9th February 2016, 09:49
Ah yes the current idea du jour of the chattering classes.
We aren't really sure what happens if we don't balance the budget in the long run, but we do have an example of a country that threw caution to the wind in that respect: Greece.
Doh!

That you sas?

BrilloPad
9th February 2016, 09:53
That you sas?

Why not compare ip addresses and let us know?

DimPrawn
9th February 2016, 09:55
Why not compare ip addresses and let us know?

If it is from the rough end of Lewisham, it's @rseguru alright.

seanraaron
9th February 2016, 10:00
Ah yes the current idea du jour of the chattering classes.
We aren't really sure what happens if we don't balance the budget in the long run, but we do have an example of a country that threw caution to the wind in that respect: Greece.
Doh!

Yes you do and it's been a superpower for over half a century. The balanced budget law in the United States has been a liability more than its fixed anything, but the fact is that you don't need that kind of legislation to keep the economy ticking over, it just needs to be diverse.

Of course Britain appears to be too small to emulate the States (doesn't stop this desire for an American-style consumer economy for some reason), hence why we're better in the EU. Unless the plan is to repair the damage Thatcher did to the industrial base and that "Labour" subsequently ignored because "we're post-industrial now?"

cretinscourge
9th February 2016, 10:14
That you sas?

Yep. can I have sasguru back, I've forgotten the p/w? :laugh

cretinscourge
9th February 2016, 10:19
Yes you do and it's been a superpower for over half a century. The balanced budget law in the United States has been a liability more than its fixed anything, but the fact is that you don't need that kind of legislation to keep the economy ticking over, it just needs to be diverse.


There are several reasons why the US has been able to "afford" to keep it's debt growing, not least its de-facto reserve currency status.
But that period may be ending - the collapse may be spectacular.

ZARDOZ
9th February 2016, 10:36
Labour never promised to get rid of the deficit, so they wouldn't have missed any targets. Their promise on the deficit was so vague and full of caveats - that the two Ed's could claim success no matter what happened.

So even if we end up in the same level of tulip, it would have sounded better under Labour.

But seriously, Osborne is being hammered for having the balls to set a hard target. He might be a total tulip-up, but at least he's made it easier to measure his degree of tulip-up ness.

Don't belive the hype government spending is increasing with all kinds of waste for example 70 billion on unwanted HS2.
Meanwhile the 'cuts' are ideological and don't scrape the surface. Expect more tax rises and debt to carry on toward 2 trillion.

administrator
9th February 2016, 10:38
Why not compare ip addresses and let us know? First thing I did when I approved the post :bluelight


If it is from the rough end of Lewisham, it's @rseguru alright.

IP address say Peckham - sound about right?

DimPrawn
9th February 2016, 10:39
First thing I did when I approved the post :bluelight



IP address say Peckham - sound about right?

Yep, we did a sneaky check on sasguru before and he lived in some rough bit of London over a kebab shop.

cretinscourge
9th February 2016, 10:59
Yep, we did a sneaky check on sasguru before and he lived in some rough bit of London over a kebab shop.

Nah, I sold that for just under a million during Labour's big boom

PurpleGorilla
9th February 2016, 11:31
You call this the sun shining? Until there is an interest rate rise I consider it a continuation of 2008....

I was being sarcastic BP!

Come on, Osborne is a Tulip.

BrilloPad
9th February 2016, 11:41
I was being sarcastic BP!

Come on, Osborne is a Tulip.

:emb

Ironing is beyond me.

Hang on - can I use the excuse of being so cheesed off assguru has returned - and lamenting the imminent drop in standards(from an already low point)?

OwlHoot
9th February 2016, 11:55
First thing I did when I approved the post :bluelight

IP address say Peckham - sound about right?

I thought he moved from Wandsworth to leafy Surrey.

But then that's just what he told us. :laugh

DimPrawn
9th February 2016, 11:57
I thought he moved from Wandsworth to leafy Surrey.

But then that's just what he told us. :laugh

:rollin:

PurpleGorilla
9th February 2016, 12:21
Deutsche bank seems to be the latest focus:

After Crashing, Deutsche Bank Is Forced To Issue Statement Defending Its Liquidity | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-08/after-crashing-deutsche-bank-forced-issue-statement-defending-its-liquidity)