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Betting odds move sharply toward Britain staying in EU after Obama warning

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    Betting odds move sharply toward Britain staying in EU after Obama warning

    Right, it's all over now. Back to work.



    Betting odds move sharply toward Britain staying in EU after Obama warning | Reuters


    Betting odds move sharply toward Britain staying in EU after Obama warning

    Students attend the launch of the 'Brighter Future In' campaign bus at Exeter University in Exeter, Britain April 7, 2016. REUTERS/Dan Kitwood/Pool/File Photo
    Bookmakers' odds have shifted sharply toward Britain voting to remain in the European Union in a referendum in June, a move in sentiment also reflected by the pound rising on Monday to a near six-week high against the euro.

    Both moves followed a direct intervention by U.S. President Barack Obama in favor of Britain staying in, but those advocating leaving sought to undermine his arguments and warned the "In" camp not to celebrate too early.

    Obama said Britain would find itself "in the back of the queue" for a trade deal with the United States if it voted to quit the EU on June 23, and said it would be safer, more prosperous and more influential if it stayed in.

    Following his intervention, which was more forceful than had been expected, the implied probability of a vote to remain in the 28-nation bloc rose to 74 percent, a jump of more than 10 percentage points compared with a week ago, according to odds from bookmaker Betfair.

    "'Remain' was already a strong favorite before Barack Obama's visit, but his comments sparked another wave of trading over the weekend with 'Remain' now backed into 1/3," said James Midmer, a spokesman for Betfair.

    "The market could eclipse Betfair's record for traded volume for a single political market; 3.5 million pounds ($5 million) has been matched in the last week alone," he said.

    The probability of a "Remain", or "In", vote implied by the odds was at its highest level since September 2015, Betfair data showed.

    The pound traded near a six-week high against the euro, with traders saying Obama's intervention was helping sentiment as it underlined the weight of argument from global and financial leaders in favor of the "Remain" camp.

    "CROWING TOO SOON"

    The EU issue has split the ruling Conservative Party, with Prime Minister David Cameron leading the campaign to stay in while six of his cabinet ministers and a large proportion of his party's lawmakers are openly campaigning for Brexit.

    The "Leave" campaign fought back on Monday, with figurehead Boris Johnson, the outgoing Conservative mayor of London seen as a potential successor to Cameron, saying Obama had "bullied" British voters and that his warning on trade was "ridiculous".

    In an opinion column in the Daily Telegraph newspaper, Johnson accused the "Remain" camp of "crowing too soon".

    Another prominent "Leave" campaigner, Justice Secretary Michael Gove, wrote in the Times newspaper that the next wave of EU expansion, which could include Turkey and Albania, would create a migration "free-for-all".

    But Home Secretary Theresa May, the interior minister who is in the "Remain" camp, said "nobody should think leaving the EU is a silver bullet that is suddenly going to solve all our immigration problems".

    She argued in a speech that controlling immigration and preventing criminals and terrorists from moving freely around the bloc were challenges best tackled by constant cooperation with EU partners and continual refining of the rules.

    "Leaving the EU would not mean we could just close ourselves off to the world ... Most of the international terrorism casework that crosses my desk involves countries beyond Europe's borders," May said.

    "So my judgment as home secretary is that remaining a member of the European Union means we will be more secure from crime and terrorism."

    (Editing by Guy Faulconbridge/Jeremy Gaunt)
    "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

    #2
    Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
    Horsecrap.
    His heart is in the right place - shame we can't say the same about his brain...

    Comment


      #3
      yeah we need to keep insisting we will win until the last vote is counted then spend months afterwards telling anyone who listens that we were robbed Modify our avatars to add a number that looks a bit like the vote percentage we might have got if we had got the whole electorate out to vote. Then its over!
      Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Mordac View Post
        Horsecrap.
        Confusing what you WANT to happen with what you THINK WILL happen is the sign of a fool.

        Of course this might be a violent reaction to Obama which levels out.
        Originally posted by MaryPoppins
        I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
        Originally posted by vetran
        Urine is quite nourishing

        Comment


          #5
          Leave campaign is basically run by Conservative nut jobs, that in itself will cost them votes.

          Hopefully referendum will settle this for at least next 30-40 years.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Mordac View Post
            Horsecrap.
            Ohh you're in for a disappointment. And once the brexiters are soaking their tears over a flat pint at 7am the next morning Cameron will be pushing for us to join the euro currency.

            Either way the UK is going to be a whole lot weaker once they've lost the vote.
            Last edited by scooterscot; 25 April 2016, 16:55.
            "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
              Ohh you're in for a disappointment. And once the brexiters are soaking their tears over a flat 0.5L at 07:00 the next morning Cameron will be pushing for us to join the euro currency.
              FTFY

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
                Ohh you're in for a disappointment. And once the brexiters are soaking their tears over a flat pint at 7am the next morning Cameron will be pushing for us to join the euro currency.

                Either way the UK is going to be a whole lot weaker once they've lost the vote.
                No disappointment. And believe me, it won't be a flat pint, either...
                His heart is in the right place - shame we can't say the same about his brain...

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by AtW View Post
                  Hopefully referendum will settle this for at least next 30-40 years.


                  You're not familiar with the Tories, are you?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by d000hg View Post
                    Confusing what you WANT to happen with what you THINK WILL happen is the sign of a fool.

                    Of course this might be a violent reaction to Obama which levels out.
                    You may be right Sir, but calling me a fool will get you asked to step into the carpark, so to speak...
                    His heart is in the right place - shame we can't say the same about his brain...

                    Comment

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