Brexit: Another look at those trade figures

[sirja]

One of the major arguments of the Leave camp, is that we import more from the EU and they do from us, and consequently, they'll be only too willing to do a trade deal with us, as that puts us in a stronger position. Well this article in the Torygraph (Not exactly a Pro Remain paper) seems to disagree.

UK’s trade deficit with EU jumps to record high ahead of Brexit vote

I find this quote in the article of particular interest.


Kallum Pickering, a Berenberg economist, said:
“Whereas the UK earns 15pc of its GDP
through exports to the EU, the rest of the EU earns
less than 5pc of its GDP through its exports to the UK.

“In all post-Brexit negotiations, the bargaining position of the EU would be much stronger than that of the UK.
The EU could use that to restrict UK access to the EU market for services, or to grant such
access only if the UK complies with tougher regulations for financial and other services than before.”

[sasguru]

You're making the mistake of being logical and intelligent and using evidence based reasoning.
A thick Brexiteer will be along shortly to spout some ill-considered random bollux.

[original PM]

One of the major arguments of the Leave camp, is that we import more from the EU and they do from us, and consequently, they'll be only too willing to do a trade deal with us, as that puts us in a stronger position. Well this article in the Torygraph (Not exactly a Pro Remain paper) seems to disagree.

UK’s trade deficit with EU jumps to record high ahead of Brexit vote

I find this quote in the article of particular interest.


Kallum Pickering, a Berenberg economist, said:
“Whereas the UK earns 15pc of its GDP
through exports to the EU, the rest of the EU earns
less than 5pc of its GDP through its exports to the UK.

“In all post-Brexit negotiations, the bargaining position of the EU would be much stronger than that of the UK.
The EU could use that to restrict UK access to the EU market for services, or to grant such
access only if the UK complies with tougher regulations for financial and other services than before.”

So this argument falls flat on ar$e as it will assume that what we export to Europe can be obtain cheaper from within the EU.

If that was the case now then when we leave are you saying that the EU will insist that all it's member states then put embargoes and levies on imports from the UK?

But that very argument means that regardless of whether the UK loses trade the cost of these items will have to go up - as if they could be got cheaper from other EU countries right now then that is exactly what they would do.

Or do you think that the citizens of the EU will be happy to pay more for a product just because the EU has increased the trade levies?

I think not...

Money talks son, bull$h!t walks

[vetran]

Yep the EU is doing us a favour, why can't you see that???

[original PM]

Yep the EU is doing us a favour, why can't you see that???

I must be dim because I cannot see them 'doing us a favor'

Do you think they would continue to do us a favour if our economy tanked and we could not pay the fees?

[sasguru]

So this argument falls flat on ar$e as it will assume that what we export to Europe can be obtain cheaper from within the EU.

If that was the case now then when we leave are you saying that the EU will insist that all it's member states then put embargoes and levies on imports from the UK?

But that very argument means that regardless of whether the UK loses trade the cost of these items will have to go up - as if they could be got cheaper from other EU countries right now then that is exactly what they would do.

Or do you think that the citizens of the EU will be happy to pay more for a product just because the EU has increased the trade levies?

I think not...

Money talks son, bull$h!t walks

FFS, I've come to the conclusion you really are thick as pigtulip.
As we import more than we export, if equivalent tariffs are placed, who will get hurt most?

[sasguru]

I must be dim

Now we're making progress. Seems to be a common affliction with PMs on this site.

[VectraMan]

So this argument falls flat on ar$e as it will assume that what we export to Europe can be obtain cheaper from within the EU.

If that was the case now then when we leave are you saying that the EU will insist that all it's member states then put embargoes and levies on imports from the UK?

But that very argument means that regardless of whether the UK loses trade the cost of these items will have to go up - as if they could be got cheaper from other EU countries right now then that is exactly what they would do.

Or do you think that the citizens of the EU will be happy to pay more for a product just because the EU has increased the trade levies?

I think not...

Money talks son, bull$h!t walks

After Brexit you're giving EU companies a great, once in a lifetime opportunity to step in and replace UK companies as suppliers. Even if there are no restrictions or tarrifs from goods from the UK in the long term, it might still be worth doing during the short term uncertainty of the UK's position, or perhaps because EU buyers are unsure of what they're allowed to do, or perhaps they know that EU buyers think those British island monkeys can just **** right off. We don't know.

Either way it's all self-inflicted economic uncertainty if you vote brexit. The outies can only speculate that it might be okay, and none of the prominent outies are going to be in a position to make the decisions.

[OwlHoot]

After Brexit you're giving EU companies a great, once in a lifetime opportunity to step in and replace UK companies as suppliers.

What's stopping them do that already, dumbass?

The answer is mostly excessive EU legislation such as employment laws that strangle enterprise and are now impoverishing continental EU citizens, and if we stay in there will be increasing pressure to impose all this on the UK.

2016-05-10 Trade deficit with EU hits ANOTHER record high in first quarter of year as referendum decision looms

From the article:

Vote Leave Chief Executive Matthew Elliott said: 'The EU is not working. The eurozone is collapsing, millions of people are unemployed and Europe's economies are massively underperforming. That means that European countries are buying less from us than ever before as we trade more with the rest of the world.

'If we Vote Leave we will be able to take back control of our trade and do deals with growing economies rather than being shackled to the failing economies of Europe. ...

(cue facetious comment about the Dail Mail, probably ..)

[sasguru]

What's stopping them do that already, dumbass?

The answer is mostly excessive EU legislation such as employment laws that strangle enterprise and are now impoverishing continental EU citizens, and if we stay in there will be increasing pressure to impose all this on the UK.

2016-05-10 Trade deficit with EU hits ANOTHER record high in first quarter of year as referendum decision looms

From the article:



(cue facetious comment about the Dail Mail, probably ..)

"If we Vote Leave we will be able to take back control of our trade and do deals with growing economies rather than being shackled to the failing economies of Europe. ..."

What sort of deals?
What have we got to sell that China and India would want?
Is he aware the Chinese economy isn't very healthy at the moment?
Is he aware that 3/4 of Indians are still desperately poor and live at subsistence level?

More wishful thinking in the Brexit cloud-cuckoo land.