What Theresa did next

[milanbenes]

Morning All,

so after yesterday's hiccup, what is Theresa's next move going to be ?


Author's Opinion - as a remainer, this soap opera is a pleasure to watch, but jokes aside, nobody can argue, Theresa dropped the ball and has slipped up.

What are her options now ? Does she still have the confidence of her MP's ?

Is the only way out a General Election ?

Milan in wondering Mode.

[GB9]

Morning All,

so after yesterday's hiccup, what is Theresa's next move going to be ?


Author's Opinion - as a remainer, this soap opera is a pleasure to watch, but jokes aside, nobody can argue, Theresa dropped the ball and has slipped up.

What are her options now ? Does she still have the confidence of her MP's ?

Is the only way out a General Election ?

Milan in wondering Mode.

She hasn't dropped anything.

Apparently you lot like process so that's what you get.

I expect the government to win the appeal. If it doesn't then we go through Parliament and then start A50.

If that weren't to happen then we would have a GE that would almost certainly result in a very right wing tory led government backed by Ukip.

Be careful what you wish for.

[BlasterBates]

The ruling won't stop Brexit but it has effectively torpedoed the so called "Hard Brexit".

[Chuck]

For all the fuss about this, I am not too upset that Parliament should have a say. I am sure that any government would love to sideline parliament and just do whatever they feel they have a mandate for. However, we need the checks and balances to ensure that a mad PM cannot just go and do as they please.

May now needs to come up with some sort of strategy, that she can put before the House, without showing her hand for the negotiations. The idiots who are demanding that she tell them her exact plans, are just that. Idiots.

If she can come up with a vague set of words, such as "We will do our utmost to protect and promote jobs. We intend to maintain the strongest possible trading relationship with the EU. We hope to continue the sharing of intelligence information in the global fight against terror* " etc, then I don't see how the House could do anything but ratify the invocation of A50.

All very woolly, but all very worthy. Then it's down to the negotiators to see what sort of deal they can come up with.

* Re that last point, sharing intelligence, I believe that we are the major source of security intelligence in the EU. If they **** us about, and try to punish us, I suggest that the flow of information from us could be closed off fairly rapidly.

[GB9]

The ruling won't stop Brexit but it has effectively torpedoed the so called "Hard Brexit".

I disagree. We will now certainly end up with WTO.

Imagine: we spend 6 mths transparently discussing what we want. We set out a white paper. Parliament votes and we trigger A50. We turn up to the first negotiation and outline what we want. After 15 minutes of uncontrollable laughter, the EU representatives say, "yes, we know what you want. We've been watching. Not a feckin chance". We then have 2 years of stalemate prior to WTO.

Remnants. Clueless.

[NotAllThere]

...
* Re that last point, sharing intelligence, I believe that we are the major source of security intelligence in the EU. If they **** us about, and try to punish us, I suggest that the flow of information from us could be closed off fairly rapidly.

We're not part of Schengen though - which is not just about borders, but about sharing police intelligence across the region.

[Chuck]

I disagree. We will now certainly end up with WTO.

Imagine: we spend 6 mths transparently discussing what we want. We set out a white paper. Parliament votes and we trigger A50. We turn up to the first negotiation and outline what we want. After 15 minutes of uncontrollable laughter, the EU representatives say, "yes, we know what you want. We've been watching. Not a feckin chance". We then have 2 years of stalemate prior to WTO.

Remnants. Clueless.

I think, and I could certainly be wrong, that if it looks like the negotiations are going nowhere, we can just call it a day and go straight to WTO rules.

[Chuck]

We're not part of Schengen though - which is not just about borders, but about sharing police intelligence across the region.

True, but we still currently share. My point was, that if the EU want to play hard-ball and punish us, then the information that we currently give them would no longer be available.

Of course, this would never be stated explicitly outside the closed meetings of the security services of the various countries. The message would get to the politicians, loud and clear, through their own security services.

[Paddy]

I think, and I could certainly be wrong, that if it looks like the negotiations are going nowhere, we can just call it a day and go straight to WTO rules.

Oh ye of little knowledge. Did you vote for Brexit without knowing the facts?

Nothing simple about UK regaining WTO status post-Brexit | International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development

A common assumption in the June 23 referendum debate is that after leaving the EU, the UK could “simply” operate as an ordinary WTO member. Eventually that’s true, but getting there would be far from simple.

Some experts believe that the adjustments would be little more than technical, and that any negotiations would be straightforward. They could be right. It would depend on whether the WTO’s membership is determined to accommodate the UK’s wishes.

But recent experience in the WTO suggests that is unlikely. A closer look at the details suggests some key issues could be politically contentious among the WTO’s members, currently 162 countries.

On top of that, recent negotiating experience suggests that willingness to accommodate each other’s interests quickly is a scarce commodity in the WTO and even a final agreement cannot be guaranteed.

If that is true, then post-Brexit, the UK can expect a long and rough ride.

[Eirikur]

Sovereign British court rules sovereign British Parliament needs to have a say. Perhaps the Brexiteers need to go to the European Court of Justice