How could the pollsters have misread the mood of the man on the street so badly? Maybe they are spending too much time in front of a computer doing clever stuff and not enough time talking to voters in the pub- where alcohol allows voters to speak their minds freely- thus reflecting the outcome better.
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Pollsters should bin SAS and go down the pub
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The pollsters had a gap in the last polls which where in the margin of error."You’re just a bad memory who doesn’t know when to go away" JR -
Originally posted by SueEllen View PostThe pollsters had a gap in the last polls which where in the margin of error.
- People just saying what they feel is the right thing to say
- Pollster not polling wider sample
- Pollsters need to work out a way to include comments/trends seen on social websitesComment
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Originally posted by jbond007 View PostCould it also be down to:
- People just saying what they feel is the right thing to say
- Pollster not polling wider sample
- Pollsters need to work out a way to include comments/trends seen on social websitesComment
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It really depends on the polling. The results was well within the margin of error for the popular vote. It wasn't good in swing states, but that's tougher to poll. Some of the national polls and models did pretty well on the electoral college too (USC/LA Times on the polling and Nate Silver gave a reasonably high chance of a Trump upset on the polling plus model). Remember, there were a lot of declared undecided voters, way more than usual, so this wasn't an easy one to predict.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostIt really depends on the polling. The results was well within the margin of error for the popular vote. It wasn't good in swing states, but that's tougher to poll. Some of the national polls and models did pretty well on the electoral college too (USC/LA Times on the polling and Nate Silver gave a reasonably high chance of a Trump upset on the polling plus model). Remember, there were a lot of declared undecided voters, way more than usual, so this wasn't an easy one to predict.Comment
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Originally posted by Old Greg View PostYes, fivethirtyeight navigated this one well.Comment
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Who needs polls when you have a tool that has correctly predicted every result since 1980?
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2016 | National Council for the Social StudiesComment
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Originally posted by Old Greg View PostYes, fivethirtyeight navigated this one well.
They still said that Trump was unlikely to win, but this was better than everyone else which said that Trump didn't have a cat-in-hell's chance.Comment
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Originally posted by centurian View PostWell - they navigated it less badly than everyone else.
They still said that Trump was unlikely to win, but this was better than everyone else which said that Trump didn't have a cat-in-hell's chance.Comment
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