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Bad News for the Climate zealots

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    Bad News for the Climate zealots

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/11/...ure-on-record/

    Steepest drop in global temperature on record

    Stunning new data indicates El Nino drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions

    Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C
    Comes amid mounting evidence run of record temperatures about to end
    The fall, revealed by Nasa satellites, has been caused by the end of El Nino

    Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

    The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end. The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.

    Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.
    Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.

    The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.

    Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

    It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.

    This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.
    The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.

    This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.
    But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

    Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino.
    ‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

    Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.

    But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.

    However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.

    Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.

    Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’

    The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.

    David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.

    ‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

    Let us not forget EU open doors immigration benefits IT contractors more than anyone

    #2
    The latest models all predict this. The science is settled, now go pay your green taxes you silly little person.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by DodgyAgent View Post

      Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.
      Brexit, innit??

      “The period of the disintegration of the European Union has begun. And the first vessel to have departed is Britain”

      Comment


        #4
        https://wottsupwiththat.com/
        Brexit is having a wee in the middle of the room at a house party because nobody is talking to you, and then complaining about the smell.

        Comment


          #5
          Steepest drop in global temperature on record
          A temperature can be global or it can be land-only (ie 30% of the globe) it can't be both. This is the latter.

          Just another cherry-pick from David Rose and the Mail. Debunked here:

          https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...no-wot-dunnit/
          Last edited by pjclarke; 28 November 2016, 20:02.
          My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by pjclarke View Post
            A temperature can be global or it can be land-only (ie 30% of the globe) it can't be both. This is the latter.

            Just another cherry-pick from David Rose and the Mail. Debunked here:

            https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...no-wot-dunnit/
            Climate change (which it has done for billions of years) is not necessarily influenced by an increase in CO2 is it?
            Let us not forget EU open doors immigration benefits IT contractors more than anyone

            Comment


              #7
              You know climate has never been static, I know climate has never been static. I suspect one or two scientists also have an inkling. And yet they keep on saying stuff like this.

              Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric
              concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat‐trapping greenhouse gases have increased
              sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase.
              Human‐caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed
              global average surface warming of roughly 0.8°C (1.5°F) over the past 140 years. Because
              natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide)
              from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate
              system for millennia.

              Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These
              observations show large‐scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and
              atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers,
              snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with long‐
              understood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to
              human‐caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with
              explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences.
              American Geophysical Union Human-Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action.
              My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by pjclarke View Post
                A temperature can be global or it can be land-only (ie 30% of the globe) it can't be both. This is the latter.

                Just another cherry-pick from David Rose and the Mail. Debunked here:

                https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...no-wot-dunnit/
                Oh its the British rail excuse, its the wrong type of temperature!
                Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by vetran View Post
                  Oh its the British rail excuse, its the wrong type of temperature!
                  Well, its certainly an obsolete dataset.

                  Rose is demolished again here: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/11...think-you-are/

                  From the comments to the earlier envisceration:

                  What’s the right term for this sort of nonsense? Cartoon physics? Third-grade analysis? Complete, utter BS? Not even wrong? And yet, no doubt, droves of scientifically illiterate dimwits are nodding their heads in agreement.
                  Rose and the DailyMail are nothing but a despicable bunch. Hatred and misinformation, that’s their business model. On a positive note, it was never easier to rip their bulltulip apart and rub the real science in their denier faces. While they might feel the momentum is on their side, the facts have never been more in contradiction to their ideological beliefs. As I said on Twitter, it’s time to call these bigots out! That’s true for science deniers as it is for racists, xenophobes, misogynists … you name it. We have literally millions of pieces of evidence to know that these guys aren’t in for the truth. We know they are deliberate liars.

                  Although I couldn’t give a lesser tulip, here are some clues for the lunatics:

                  – looking at land data only doesn’t tell you anything about ENSO responses
                  – identifying circulation anomalies is key to say something about temperature evolution
                  – clearly, RSS drop is due to Eurasian cold in response to low sea ice/high geopotential over the Arctic (no such drop in UAH, GISS, BEST, HadCRUT4-CW)
                  – can rebound quick as seen last winter (well, in fact every winter, because weather!)

                  There’s much more interesting stuff going on wrt change in the annual cycle of the anomalies (which is why OND this year will be warmer than JJA, despite colder central Pacific). But that’s of course nothing the likes of Rose are even remotely interested in.
                  My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Meanwhile record temeratures in Saudi Arabia

                    https://www.rt.com/viral/368505-saud...a-desert-snow/
                    "A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves and traitors are not victims, but accomplices," George Orwell

                    Comment

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