Nationwide Building Society December 2016 House Price Index

[Martin@AS Financial]

Happy New Year - hope everyone had a good Christmas


Key Points:

UK annual house price growth ended 2016 at 4.5%, the same as 2015

Price growth in London ended the year below UK average for first time in 8 years

Full report here:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/...ec_Q4_2016.pdf

[administrator]

Cheers Martin. Are we going to see prices fall in 2017? Seems to be a lot of building going on...

[northernladuk]

Cheers Martin. Are we going to see prices fall in 2017? Seems to be a lot of building going on...

Bearing in mind the number of houses built has been lagging way behind the number of houses needed for years I don't think a bit of extra building is going to change anything in the long term. It's gonna need a serious policy change that they stick to regarding numbers of new houses before it starts affecting the prices IMO.

[DimPrawn]

Cheers Martin. Are we going to see prices fall in 2017? Seems to be a lot of building going on...

Net migration to UK rises to 333,000 - second highest on record - BBC News

Enough for 330,000 extra people per year?

I don't think so...

[WTFH]

Net migration to UK rises to 333,000 - second highest on record - BBC News

Enough for 330,000 extra people per year?

I don't think so...

Surely that should be zero now, after all the Government/UKBF can no longer blame the EU

[vetran]

Surely that should be zero now, after all the Government/UKBF can no longer blame the EU

stir stir.

[OwlHoot]

Surely that should be zero now, after all the Government/UKBF can no longer blame the EU

We're still in the EU, until at least next March.

Also, if the Brexit trade deal is a fudge and a sell out, which it probably will be, then the UK will continue to be subject to the EU's malign freedom of movement obligation.

[Martin@AS Financial]

Cheers Martin. Are we going to see prices fall in 2017? Seems to be a lot of building going on...

It's a really good question. My feeling is that we won't see price falls in 2017 as lenders are still confident in the UK housing market. A quick search shows that the main banks are still offering 95% loan to value mortgages which are the first to be pulled when times are uncertain.

There was a good article from the BBC a couple of days ago showing predictions for 2017:

"The experts have a relatively wide spread of predictions for 2017 - from price falls overall to rises matching or outstripping the general level of inflation.

Martin Ellis, housing economist at mortgage lender the Halifax, is offering a hedge-your-bets prediction of between a 1% and 4% rise."


House price predictions for 2017 - BBC News

[AtW]

House prices will fall massively.

All apart from luxury apartments in Bham located in a nice area.

HTH

[filthy1980]

It's a really good question. My feeling is that we won't see price falls in 2017 as lenders are still confident in the UK housing market. A quick search shows that the main banks are still offering 95% loan to value mortgages which are the first to be pulled when times are uncertain.

There was a good article from the BBC a couple of days ago showing predictions for 2017:

"The experts have a relatively wide spread of predictions for 2017 - from price falls overall to rises matching or outstripping the general level of inflation.

Martin Ellis, housing economist at mortgage lender the Halifax, is offering a hedge-your-bets prediction of between a 1% and 4% rise."


House price predictions for 2017 - BBC News

how sustainable are those offers / rates though as the Fed is likely to continue to raise interest rates in the US and no doubt BoE will follow,

I'd guess there will be a 1% rise by the end of 2017 which will no doubt lead to a contraction of high LTV offers and consequently buyers which would then see price reductions in the market

or am I just economically illiterate?