Brexit Discussion - Predictions of Britain in a Post Brexit world

[milanbenes]

Morning All,

we find ourselves at the end of a week of deep intense emotional Brexit Discussions.

Certainly, the discussions were rewarding for us Remoaners, and I am sure for the Brexiters too.

We can see evidence of how therapeutic the discussions were for the Brexiters in their admission and realization that, yes, nobody has an idea of how Britain will look in a Post Brexit world.

If anybody would like to read that discussion and the admissions, they're here...

Thought I'd help you out with this as you seemed to be struggling.

For the record, NO, Brexiters don't know exactly how things will play out.

Perhaps one of the Remainers could lend us their crystal ball for a bit of clarity?

Now that we are all aligned, nobody has a clue how Britain will look Post Brexit, let's give the arm chair experts on CUK their say, and their opportunity to discuss, think and share how they think Britain will look post Brexit.

The floor is open.... you can have your say, tell us how Britain will look Post Brexit....

Milan.

[PurpleGorilla]

Brexit Discussion - Predictions of Britain in a Post Brexit world

I predict very little difference, the sun will rise in the morning and the UK will still be one of the greatest nations on earth.

[northernladyuk]

I predict very little difference, the sun will rise in the morning and the UK will still be one of the greatest nations on earth.

Glad to see you've kept your sense of humour in these troubled times.

[BlasterBates]

During an interview at Davos Hammond referred to the UK as the 6th largest economy, last year government ministers were referring to it as the 5th largest economy.

You can see where this is heading.

[VectraMan]

During an interview at Davos Hammond referred to the UK as the 6th largest economy, last year government ministers were referring to it as the 5th largest economy.

You can see where this is heading.

Aren't we already 7th behind India? Though I think there's quite a big gap to Italy.

Nothing much will change; we'll all likely be a bit poorer than we were and things will be a bit worse. All the things that people were duped into thinking were caused by the EU won't get any better because they were never caused by the EU, and the overriding feeling will be that the whole thing was a waste of time and money. Which it was.

[NotAllThere]

I predict very little difference, the sun will rise in the morning and the UK will still be one of the greatest nations on earth.

You first two points are reasonable positions to take.

I think the UK will be poorer than it otherwise would have been, and that its decline from a great nation will be somewhat accelerated. The scale of the impoverishment is hard to be definite on. I'd be surprised if it was 20% or more; 10% give or take seems about right.

Edit: also what VMS.

[vetran]

If its done correctly we may see little change except more will be brought from out of the EU and produced locally.

However expect them to cock it up. Not sure we will see the UK becoming a third world nation because it left a corrupt cartel.

[sasguru]

Nothing much will change; we'll all likely be a bit poorer than we were and things will be a bit worse. All the things that people were duped into thinking were caused by the EU won't get any better because they were never caused by the EU, and the overriding feeling will be that the whole thing was a waste of time and money. Which it was.

I think the UK will be poorer than it otherwise would have been, and that its decline from a great nation will be somewhat accelerated. The scale of the impoverishment is hard to be definite on. I'd be surprised if it was 20% or more; 10% give or take seems about right.

Edit: also what VMS.

Agree with both of you.
Trying to put some numbers on it, the most optimistic economists predicted a fall in growth from the > 2% pa UK trend rate to 1-1.5% pa. But AFAIK that was assuming access to the SM was maintained. Without access to the SM it's difficult to see where growth is coming from.
2% to 1% doesn't seem like much, but its the difference between maintaining our hitherto faster growth rate in Europe and keeping almost full employment or declining to an Italian standard of growth.
More generally well-educated people in the South will continue to prosper, poorly educated people in the North will decline further.
Manufacturing is gone forever so I can't see a solution to the 50% of people who can't do knowledge work.
That's true across the world, it's the great dilemma of our times.
After 10 years or so, we'll probably still be in the top 10 economies, just about, still keeping some centres of excellence but more unequal than ever.

The doomsday scenario however is that foreigners stop funding British debt by not buying gilts, as happened in the 70s. Or if FDI dries up as companies find they're better off in the larger EU markets.
If that happens all bets are off.

[GB9]

I predict......

We won't be part of an EU army;

We won't have any UK employee tax paid directly into the EU Commission (that's an EU discussion paper at the moment for those that weren't aware);

The EU will cave in to access to the single market without freedom of movement for both us and Switzerland - we may have to pay some sort of access tariff (god knows why) but minimal compared to at present;

There will be upheaval for a couple of years after which things get back to normal;

GDP will be 2% lower in 14 years time than it would otherwise (how terrible, 2%) but GDP per capita, which is far more important, will be the same - things will pan out pretty much as the research from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge predict;

Our children will not be part of the massed unemployed EU young;

Remnants will still be on here whining about how great it was when Nick Clegg was in charge of the Liberals;

Tim Farron will be in a padded cell with his other Liberal MP banging their heads against each other;

SAS will have a cleaning job in Switzerland having never passed Base SAS and still trying to work out the difference between statistics and having an opinion that all 12 million plus Sky subscribers voted Leave

I have a few other less savoury comments I could add but let's end the week on a friendly note.

[Paddy]

I predict very little difference, the sun will rise in the morning and the UK will still be one of the greatest nations on earth.

Thant' because you are not involved in a real business