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AtW
30th May 2017, 21:58
http://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170530/the-times-tory-loss-gbp.png

Hung Parliament, that's something I'd vote for!!!

eek
30th May 2017, 21:59
Wait to you see the methodology they are using :rollin:

chopper
30th May 2017, 22:02
I assume this is just to make sure Tory voters go out and vote?

northernladyuk
30th May 2017, 22:11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROKXlvYMKQc[

SueEllen
31st May 2017, 06:22
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ROKXlvYMKQc

The British electorate doesn't like bald men.

jamesbrown
31st May 2017, 06:29
I'm quite surprised that the Times went with this. Or, rather, I would be if it weren't a Murdoch rag :laugh It can't be described as a poll. It's a constituency model whose statistical parameters are estimated with polling data. These type of models have a very poor track record.

eek
31st May 2017, 07:03
I'm quite surprised that the Times went with this. Or, rather, I would be if it weren't a Murdoch rag :laugh It can't be described as a poll. It's a constituency model whose statistical parameters are estimated with polling data. These type of models have a very poor track record.

The argument for publishing is that it was accurate in the referendum... :rollin:

That only leaves likelihood to vote and numerous other flows in the model. Its like using the huffingtonpost poll of polls that lists Tories 33%, Labour 31%, undecided 21%, rest 15%... Unless you know what that 21% is going to do and trust that everyone stating their choice is going to vote its pointless...

jamesbrown
31st May 2017, 07:21
The argument for publishing is that it was accurate in the referendum... :rollin:

That only leaves likelihood to vote and numerous other flows in the model. Its like using the huffingtonpost poll of polls that lists Tories 33%, Labour 31%, undecided 21%, rest 15%... Unless you know what that 21% is going to do and trust that everyone stating their choice is going to vote its pointless...

The inherent problem here is that these polling events cannot be treated as realisations of some stationary random process. Every poll has unique context, particularly at a constituency level, and that context is essentially invisible to the pollsters. They're constantly tweaking the structure of their models (e.g. turnout filters) to better map the most recent polling bias, but that is difficult to justify for the above reason. In this context, both their expectations and the estimates of uncertainty surrounding those expectations are highly questionable. Polling is a pseudo-science at best (i.e. a business :laugh), and constituency models take this to a whole new level. It's the illusion of precision.

Fronttoback
31st May 2017, 07:57
The inherent problem here is that these polling events cannot be treated as realisations of some stationary random process. Every poll has unique context, particularly at a constituency level, and that context is essentially invisible to the pollsters. They're constantly tweaking the structure of their models (e.g. turnout filters) to better map the most recent polling bias, but that is difficult to justify for the above reason. In this context, both their expectations and the estimates of uncertainty surrounding those expectations are highly questionable. Polling is a pseudo-science at best (i.e. a business :laugh), and constituency models take this to a whole new level. It's the illusion of precision.

Each poll has a unique context that makes the result inaccurate.

But if this is true of all polls, wouldn't they all be equally wrong by the same degree, on average?

So, one could draw a useful trend but not an accurate snapshot consensus.

And that, my friend, is why I have a GCSE in Maffs.

northernladyuk
31st May 2017, 08:05
Each poll has a unique context that makes the result inaccurate.

But if this is true of all polls, wouldn't they all be equally wrong by the same degree, on average?

So, one could draw a useful trend but not an accurate snapshot consensus.

And that, my friend, is why I have a GCSE in Maffs.

But what does it all mean for Kebuber?

Fronttoback
31st May 2017, 08:08
but what does it all mean for kebuber?

"who needs abs when you can have kebabs"

Pip in a Poke
31st May 2017, 08:15
Social media. That's the big difference these days and once you see a groundswell of support for something it's hard to stop it from snowballing. That said, the older, less social media aware generation is much more inclined to vote so the effect is somewhat countered.

sasguru
31st May 2017, 08:22
Move on, nothing to see here.
Tories will win a comfortable majority, after which they will cock up Brexit leading to a Jezza win in the next election.
Brexit + Socialism = the end of the UK. Literally.

BlasterBates
31st May 2017, 08:23
Move on, nothing to see here.
Tories will win a comfortable majority, after which they will cock up Brexit leading to a Jezza win in the next election.
Brexit + Socialism = the end of the UK. Literally.

Greece with knobs on.

:D

northernladyuk
31st May 2017, 08:27
Greece with knobs in.

:D

FTFY

saptastic
31st May 2017, 08:52
Complacency from Tories

Calling an election for their own party political purposes
Keep going on about 'coalition of chaos' soundbite which means nothing - playing on fear rather than aspiration
(take note from Trump who at least campaigned 'positively' to try and appeal to the masses i.e. Make America Great)
Most uninspiring manifesto ever
Leader of the country not willing to even undertake a TV debate

Just like the remain campaign that was all about don't let the other side win

So uninspiring.

jamesbrown
31st May 2017, 09:32
Each poll has a unique context that makes the result inaccurate.

But if this is true of all polls, wouldn't they all be equally wrong by the same degree, on average?

So, one could draw a useful trend but not an accurate snapshot consensus.

And that, my friend, is why I have a GCSE in Maffs.

No. HTH. :D

sasguru
31st May 2017, 09:37
Each poll has a unique context that makes the result inaccurate.

But if this is true of all polls, wouldn't they all be equally wrong by the same degree, on average?

So, one could draw a useful trend but not an accurate snapshot consensus.

And that, my friend, is why I have a GCSE in Maffs.

Feck me you're genuinely thick.

AtW
31st May 2017, 09:38
The British electorate doesn't like bald men.

:eek

Hobosapien
31st May 2017, 09:43
:eek

Get a Trump Toupee and you'll be alright.

SueEllen
31st May 2017, 09:52
:eek

Neil Kinnock - lost election to John Major when he was predicted to win it

William Hague - lost election to Tony Blair though he had no chance of winning.

Iain Duncan Smith - hated by Tory MPs and the Tory party so didn't even stand for the GE

northernladyuk
31st May 2017, 09:57
Neil Kinnock - lost election to John Major when he was predicted to win it

William Hague - lost election to Tony Blair though he had no chance of winning.

Iain Duncan Smith - hated by Tory MPs and the Tory party so didn't even stand for the GE

I'm not sure Kinnock and Hague were that bad really. Kinnock had a job and a half to start the 'modernisation' of the Labour Party and Hague was up a near-unbeatable Blair.

IDS, yes. I can't even remember what Michael Howard was like - so presumably awful.

Pip in a Poke
31st May 2017, 14:10
Just throwing a complete curveball into the mix here but has anyone considered that this "Corbyn Bounce" is, in fact, a complex Psy-OP engineered to scupper Brexit with the collusion of the Tories because they don't actually want Brexit?

AtW
31st May 2017, 14:19
Iain Duncan Smith - hated by Tory MPs and the Tory party so didn't even stand for the GE

Tory MPs always full of hatred, they follow the path of the Dark Side...

AtW
31st May 2017, 14:35
Just throwing a complete curveball into the mix here but has anyone considered that this "Corbyn Bounce" is, in fact, a complex Psy-OP engineered to scupper Brexit with the collusion of the Tories because they don't actually want Brexit?

Korbyn is totally colluding with Tory Scum in getting them elected - he counts on that they will fook things up pretty nicely so that he in turn can be electable in 5 years time, the Unions will make sure he stays in his post of the Great Leader until then.