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View Full Version : Who else is impressed with how the UK economy forges forward unto Brexit?



northernladyuk
15th June 2017, 10:58
The country is just booming across all economic indicators!

BlasterBates
15th June 2017, 11:00
FTSE 250 is on track for its worst day of 2017 after disappointing retail results | City A.M. (http://www.cityam.com/266705/disappointing-retail-figures-pushing-ftse-250-towards-its)

northernladyuk
15th June 2017, 11:03
FTSE 250 is on track for its worst day of 2017 after disappointing retail results | City A.M. (http://www.cityam.com/266705/disappointing-retail-figures-pushing-ftse-250-towards-its)

That's just noise caused by Remoaner Enemies of the People talking the economy down.

sasguru
15th June 2017, 11:04
Stop talking the economy down you traitorous saboteur and enemy of the people!
Just wait, the magic and wondrous Brexit fountain of largesse is about to spew forth - and thus we can go riding into the future bright sunny uplands on our British Leyland unicorns.

motoukenin
15th June 2017, 11:05
FTSE 250 is on track for its worst day of 2017 after disappointing retail results | City A.M. (http://www.cityam.com/266705/disappointing-retail-figures-pushing-ftse-250-towards-its)

The house of credit cards is falling down

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 11:12
What concerns me is that continental companies who were supplied from the UK seem to be switching to continental suppliers.

UK companies need to start switching to UK suppliers in preparation. And we need to cut corporation tax and loosen banking regulations.

Instead May has been too busy looking in the mirror thinking how popular she is.

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 11:13
The house of credit cards is falling down

It fell in 2008. Then it was realized that the solution to too much debt is more debt.

AtW
15th June 2017, 11:15
What concerns me is that continental companies who were supplied from the UK seem to be switching to continental suppliers.

UK companies need to start switching to UK suppliers in preparation. And we need to cut corporation tax and loosen banking regulations..

WHS

Aston Martin should urgently switch away from AMG engines to the ones 100% made in Britain...

northernladyuk
15th June 2017, 11:18
WHS

Aston Martin should urgently switch away from AMG engines to the ones 100% made in Britain...

Agreed. The UK should also stop importing food.

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 11:19
WHS

Aston Martin should urgently switch away from AMG engines to the ones 100% made in Britain...

Ouch! I would like to think AM could build engines in the UK. If the pound slips lower it may becomes worthwhile.

sasguru
15th June 2017, 11:21
What concerns me is that continental companies who were supplied from the UK seem to be switching to continental suppliers.

UK companies need to start switching to UK suppliers in preparation. .


Which UK companies?

AtW
15th June 2017, 11:24
Which UK companies?

Marconi, Barings Bank, etc

northernladyuk
15th June 2017, 11:24
Which UK companies?

http://standpointmag.co.uk/files/u28/congdon_-_cc_w_leiter.jpg

Cirrus
15th June 2017, 11:34
Which UK companies?Peugeot have just taken over Opel. Opel employ maybe 2000 people building Astras at Ellesmere Port. Peugeot's boss has said there will have to be more UK-sourced parts when Britain shortly becomes an insignificant, isolated, Billy No-Mates, third world debt-ridden sweatshop on the margins of the modern world.

(Those weren't his exact words but you get the gist)

sasguru
15th June 2017, 11:39
Peugeot have just taken over Opel.

So a French company have just taken over part of American one.
It's almost as if there are no real British players in the mass car market. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 11:39
Which UK companies?

Any that import supplies from the EU. There must be some?

:rolleyes:

sasguru
15th June 2017, 11:41
Any that import supplies from the EU. There must be some?

:rolleyes:

Dunno, you suggested it, you tell us.

BlasterBates
15th June 2017, 11:41
Peugeot have just taken over Opel. Opel employ maybe 2000 people building Astras at Ellesmere Port. Peugeot's boss has said there will have to be more UK-sourced parts when Britain shortly becomes an insignificant, isolated, Billy No-Mates, third world debt-ridden sweatshop on the margins of the modern world.

(Those weren't his exact words but you get the gist)

and EU car manufacturers will be forcing UK suppliers to relocate to the EU, so what will the net effect be ?

It's clear there will be relocation in both directions but you can checkout the size of the UK market and the size of the EU market to see whether the UK industry will shrink. The UK is a net exporter of cars and components to the EU, after Brexit it will become a much smaller industry serving the UK.

However, I do agree with your comment on the UK becoming a third world debt-ridden sweatshop on the margins of the modern world.

:D

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 11:42
Dunno, you suggested it, you tell us.

Apologies. I bow to your superior intellect. No UK companies import anything from the EU.

Sorry about that.

sasguru
15th June 2017, 12:01
Apologies. I bow to your superior intellect. No UK companies import anything from the EU.

Sorry about that.

There are a few. RR and BAe to name the biggest ones.
Not enough to keep a country of 60 million odd souls in the manner to which they have become accustomed though,:rolleyes::rolleyes:

sasguru
15th June 2017, 12:04
whether the UK industry will shrink

According to the leader of "Economists for Brexit", Patrick Minford, it will shrink to zero.
But he thinks that's a good thing because as he says we can all put on suits and do marketing instead.

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 12:08
There are a few. RR and BAe to name the biggest ones.
Not enough to keep a country of 60 million odd souls in the manner to which they have become accustomed though,:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Its going to shrink back to 56 million. Hopefully.

AtW
15th June 2017, 12:09
There are a few. RR and BAe to name the biggest ones.
Not enough to keep a country of 60 million odd souls in the manner to which they have become accustomed though,:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Maybe finally they'll start building Range Rovers for everybody!!! :eyes

Before deciding on another Merc I've checked out Range Rover Sports - ffs, overpriced big time! :mad

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 12:10
According to the leader of "Economists for Brexit", Patrick Minford, it will shrink to zero.
But he thinks that's a good thing because as he says we can all put on suits and do marketing instead.

Was it Shakespeare who said "first let us kill all economists" in Henry 5th part 2? :confused:

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 12:12
Maybe finally they'll start building Range Rovers for everybody!!! :eyes

Before deciding on another Merc I've checked out Range Rover Sports - ffs, overpriced big time! :mad

I worked for a company that looked after their after sales data. JLR take after sales very seriously.

However people seem to pay alot for the brand. Personally I hate anyone who owns one.

A few years ago during water rationing there was a chap down our street with a Disco. He was using a hose on the car, complete with power washer.

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 12:59
A few years ago during water rationing there was a chap down our street with a Disco. He was using a hose on the car, complete with power washer.


and you don't have your own water source oder ?

Milan.

BrilloPad
15th June 2017, 13:00
and you don't have your own water source oder ?

Milan.

Not in Sarf London. It was nowhere near the Peckham spring.

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 13:06
I've got not one Rodders, but two, drilled wells on the laaaaaaaaaaand at Chateau Benes

:smokin

Milan.

MrMarkyMark
15th June 2017, 13:06
I worked for a company that looked after their after sales data. JLR take after sales very seriously.

However people seem to pay alot for the brand. Personally I hate anyone who owns one.

A few years ago during water rationing there was a chap down our street with a Disco. He was using a hose on the car, complete with power washer.

Possibly too many sad memories :confused:

https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/ad_205027004.jpg?quality=80&strip=all&strip=all

Cirrus
15th June 2017, 13:24
The UK is a net exporter of cars and components to the EU, after Brexit it will become a much smaller industry serving the UK. I dunno.

Nissan in Sunderland is the most efficient plant in their empire. I can't believe Renault are going to throw that away just because of a couple of percents of tariff and a bit of extra customs paperwork.

BlasterBates
15th June 2017, 13:37
I dunno.

Nissan in Sunderland is the most efficient plant in their empire. I can't believe Renault are going to throw that away just because of a couple of percents of tariff and a bit of extra customs paperwork.

Certainly finished products will still be exported but huge swathes of British industry are part of EU supply chains. A "bit of extra paperwork" and delays in customs will get companies switching suppliers, similar to the example you gave about peugeot.

I know of one major company which was going to build a new plant in the UK and is now investing in Germany instead. A whole factory will not exist that would have existed, gone ! a decision made a week after the Brexit vote. That will be replicated many times over. Now there are examples of manufacturers who sell most of their products in the UK who will switch suppliers from the EU to the UK to avoid precisely those delays they can't afford, but it will overwhelmingly be in the other direction.

The other thing is manufacturing plants don't disappear overnight, but at some point they need to invest to produce the new model, that is the point where manufacturing will relocate.

..and what about the banks ? I spoke to someone at Deutsche bank, who works at HQ all they're doing is planning to relocate their operations out of London.

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 13:53
Certainly finished products will still be exported but huge swathes of British industry are part of EU supply chains. A "bit of extra paperwork" and delays in customs will get companies switching suppliers, similar to the example you gave about peugeot.

I know of one major company which was going to build a new plant in the UK and is now investing in Germany instead. A whole factory will not exist that would have existed, gone ! a decision made a week after the Brexit vote. That will be replicated many times over. Now there are examples of manufacturers who sell most of their products in the UK who will switch suppliers from the EU to the UK to avoid precisely those delays they can't afford, but it will overwhelmingly be in the other direction.

The other thing is manufacturing plants don't disappear overnight, but at some point they need to invest to produce the new model, that is the point where manufacturing will relocate.

..and what about the banks ? I spoke to someone at Deutsche bank, who works at HQ all they're doing is planning to relocate their operations out of London.

on the positive side there'll be less pressure on housing which could make houses more affordable for first time buyers

and if the economy tanks, then that will also help to make house prices more affordable

so maybe, all in all, Brexit is a master plan to help first time buyers

Milan.

The_Equalizer
15th June 2017, 13:55
on the positive side there'll be less pressure on housing which could make houses more affordable for first time buyers

and if the economy tanks, then that will also help to make house prices more affordable

so maybe, all in all, Brexit is a master plan to help first time buyers

Milan.

That's what Osborne said until he realised it worked against Remain.

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 14:08
That's what Osborne said until he realised it worked against Remain.


the fact is, Brexit is going to feck the property market, starting with the buy to let business

if nobody has told you that before, then you heard it here first :smoking


basically, the majority of buy to lets are rented to foreigners, and when they all leave, and others stop coming, the buy to let market (let's call it the debt house of credit cards) will collapse

this will gradually lead to a saturation of the property market which will collapse prices

anybody planning to sell their house and downsize to fund their retirement will be screwed good and proper up the ploper

Milan.

original PM
15th June 2017, 14:10
the fact is, Brexit is going to feck the property market, starting with the buy to let business

if nobody has told you that before, then you heard it here first :smoking


basically, the majority of buy to lets are rented to foreigners, and when they all leave, and others stop coming, the buy to let market (let's call it the debt house of credit cards) will collapse

this will gradually lead to a saturation of the property market which will collapse prices

anybody planning to sell their house and downsize to fund their retirement will be screwed good and proper up the ploper

Milan.

No it won't.

The_Equalizer
15th June 2017, 14:10
the fact is, Brexit is going to feck the property market, starting with the buy to let business

if nobody has told you that before, then you heard it here first :smoking


basically, the majority of buy to lets are rented to foreigners, and when they all leave, and others stop coming, the buy to let market (let's call it the debt house of credit cards) will collapse

this will gradually lead to a saturation of the property market which will collapse prices

anybody planning to sell their house and downsize to fund their retirement will be screwed good and proper up the ploper

Milan.

Anyone here?

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 14:16
Anyone here?

more like everyone here, or anyone here, by any chance not affected

Milan.

The_Equalizer
15th June 2017, 14:27
more like everyone here, or anyone here, by any chance not affected

Milan.

Funding retirement solely based on a single fairly illiquid asset. Thanks, but no thanks.

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 14:30
Funding retirement solely based on a single fairly illiquid asset. Thanks, but no thanks.

agreed, but for sure there's gonna be a fair few folks affected

Milano.

Eirikur
15th June 2017, 14:33
1. Can you imagine how the economy would have grown if the UK hadn't voted for Brexit
2. Economy is doing well because brexit hasn't happened yet, it will collapse if brexit is going to be hard
3. In other EU countries growth is much much better than in the UK

milanbenes
15th June 2017, 14:45
1. Can you imagine how the economy would have grown if the UK hadn't voted for Brexit
2. Economy is doing well because brexit hasn't happened yet, it will collapse if brexit is going to be hard
3. In other EU countries growth is much much better than in the UK


likewise, can we imagine the good and positive things which could have been done to continue moving the country forward during the same time period

instead, time is being wasted, money is being wasted, in just short of 12 months, British politics has become the joke of Europe, they're all laughing at us

we used to be stable like Germany, we used to sit at the top table of the EU, we used to have the best deal in the EU, we used to influence the EU, we even used to throw stones at the EU and they accepted it

11 months after the Brexit Referendum and one out of the blue General Election and we've become a political joke in the category of countries who we used to laugh at

And then to cap it all, France is saying we can forget Article 50, but of course, the EU negotiators are pointing out if we forget Article 50 we cannot come back in with the sweet deal that we had before

Good job guys

I'm sure there's a lesson here, there are times in life when it's good to appreciate what you have

Milan.

original PM
15th June 2017, 14:50
But wait - there's more

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/04/uk-economy-service-sector-growth-april

BlasterBates
15th June 2017, 14:52
That is positive news indeed, but needs to be treated with caution:


Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank, said the survey “probably overstates the buoyancy of growth”, noting that it excludes the retail sector, which has been hurt by weaker consumer spending in recent months.

“Pretty much everyone is expecting growth to slow this year because of a weakening consumer,” he added.

northernladyuk
15th June 2017, 14:56
But wait - there's more

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/04/uk-economy-service-sector-growth-april

Nice April data.


The UK economy has shown signs of picking up over recent weeks as strong demand from overseas helped offset moribund consumer spending at home, according to a survey that will welcomed by Theresa May’s government as next month’s election approaches.

The election result should spur growth even further.

BlasterBates
15th June 2017, 17:02
HSBC would move less jobs out of London for a Softer Brexit (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/hsbc-s-assaf-says-more-london-jobs-could-stay-on-softer-brexit)

At least less jobs would be destroyed by watering Brexit down.

TestMangler
15th June 2017, 17:25
HSBC would move less jobs out of London for a Softer Brexit (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/hsbc-s-assaf-says-more-london-jobs-could-stay-on-softer-brexit)

At least less jobs would be destroyed by watering Brexit down.

You would think Bloomberg would know it was 'fewer jobs'.

northernladyuk
15th June 2017, 17:56
You would think Bloomberg would know it was 'fewer jobs'.

'Less' is also correct.

BlasterBates
16th June 2017, 11:04
IMF warns British economy will be completely trashed in the event of a Hard Brexit (http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/817825/Hard-Brexit-news-UK-IMF-Christine-Lagard-latest-EU-talks-economy)

Mme Lagard tells it as it is.

:D

original PM
16th June 2017, 11:24
IMF warns British economy will be completely trashed in the event of a Hard Brexit (http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/817825/Hard-Brexit-news-UK-IMF-Christine-Lagard-latest-EU-talks-economy)

Mme Lagard tells it as it is.

:D

Someone who does not like brexit and has been made to look a tw@ before.

Not sure this carries much weight tbh

northernladyuk
16th June 2017, 11:26
Someone who does not like brexit and has been made to look a tw@ before.

Not sure this carries much weight tbh

You are not really addressing the argument there.

NotAllThere
16th June 2017, 11:38
Someone who does not like brexit and has been made to look a tw@ before.

Not sure this carries much weight tbh

Oh the irony.

BlasterBates
16th June 2017, 11:54
Is the government ready for the Brexit talks (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/is-theresa-may-really-ready-to-start-brexit-talks-on-monday-a7792986.html)


the mood among EU negotiators is: “What’s the point of bending over backwards to do a deal with a country that is going down the plughole?”

indeed :laugh

milanbenes
16th June 2017, 11:56
I kid you not I have the feeling Britain and Brexit has killed the goose that lays the golden eggs

this is going to be a difficult hole to get out of

Milan.

BlasterBates
16th June 2017, 12:01
UK caves into the EU, before the talks start (https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-16/u-k-said-to-accede-to-eu-demand-brexit-talks-tackle-split-first)

One might be forgiven for thinking that Hard Brexit was dumped this morning.

:laugh