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northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 15:47
Brexit: Vote Leave chief who created £350m NHS lie on bus admits leaving EU could be 'an error' | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-vote-leave-director-dominic-cummings-leave-eu-error-nhs-350-million-lie-bus-a7822386.html)


£350m NHS lie on bus admits leaving EU could be 'an error'
Dominic Cummings also described the referendum as a 'dumb idea' - shaping up to be a 'guaranteed debacle'

Dominic Cummings came up with the infamous bus promising an extra £350m a week for the NHS Getty
One of the masterminds behind the Brexit vote has performed an astonishing U-turn by admitting that leaving the EU may be “an error”.

Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director, described the referendum as a “dumb idea” before other ideas had been tried to win back powers from Brussels. He has also warned that Brexit is shaping up to be a “guaranteed debacle”, without big changes in Whitehall to deliver a successful negotiation.

Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, seized on the comments, saying: “Dominic Cummings has let the cat out of the bag. This is the man who slapped the £350m NHS lie on the side of the bus who is now saying leaving the EU could be a mistake.

“These Brexiteers have sold us a pup and lied to the public. This is why I believe the public should be given a say on the final Brexit deal.”

Mr Cummings is little known to the public, but is widely seen as hugely influential behind the scenes in pulling off last year’s shock referendum Leave vote. A former special adviser to Michael Gove, he coined the phrase “vote leave, take control”, which excited wavering voters into believing Britain could reclaim sovereignty.

Government stance on Brexit 'nonsense' and Labour 'cowards', Anna Soubry says
And, notoriously, he came with the campaign for an extra £350m to be spent on the NHS every week from diverted EU spending – which also proved crucial, MPs said. Leading Brexiteers including Boris Johnson were photographed alongside the bus – but the pledge was immediately dumped when Theresa May took over in Downing Street.

Mr Cummings’ volte-face came in a late-night Twitter exchange, in which he was asked whether anything could happen to “wish Leave had not won the referendum?”

In reply, he wrote: “Lots! I said before REF was dumb idea, other things shdve been tried 1st. In some possible branches of the future leaving will be an error.”

Last month, Mr Cummings tweeted that MPs who backed Leave must force change on Downing Street and the Department for Exiting the European Union, led by David Davis. “If Leave MPs don't assert themselves to force MANAGEMENT changes on No10/DEXU, Brexit talks = guaranteed debacle as I’ve said for a year,” he wrote.

The comments come amid fresh cabinet infighting over the terms of Brexit, as ministers exploit Ms May’s weakness to argue for different approaches.

The Chancellor Philip Hammond mocked Mr Johnson’s claim that Britain could “have its cake and eat it” in the talks – but was, in turn, slapped down by Mr Davis for arguing for a lengthy transitional period.

The Brexit Secretary’s former chief of staff than criticised the Prime Minister for tying his hands by insisting all influence held by the European Court of Justice must come to an end.

Mr Farron added: “The government, led by the nose by Boris and Gove are a shambles. These Brexiteers have forced us to play a massive stakes game of Russian roulette with millions of jobs at risk.”

PurpleGorilla
4th July 2017, 15:52
Yawn.

Does anyone GAF about the red bus?

Honestly.

Move on people, next stop EEA...

sasguru
4th July 2017, 15:58
"One of the masterminds behind the Brexit vote has performed an astonishing U-turn by admitting that leaving the EU may be “an error”.
"Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director, described the referendum as a “dumb idea”

Should we be calling him a 'mastermind' then?
:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:rollin::rollin::rol lin::rollin:

We really must be the laughing stock of the world
This country gets all it deserves.
Complete plonkers playing games at the top and enough useful idiots to exploit, as this forum shows.

SueEllen
4th July 2017, 15:59
Move on people, next stop EEA...

Where we pay but don't have a say..

BlasterBates
4th July 2017, 16:03
It was Kenneth Clarke who said in 10 years you won't find anyone admitting to voting leave. With the car manufacturers now warning of mass layoffs next year it's pretty clear it will be a massive f*** up.

:laugh

OwlHoot
4th July 2017, 16:07
Yawn.

Does anyone GAF about the red bus?

Honestly.

Move on people, next stop EEA...

WHS. Honestly, the Remainers here are obsessed to the point of madness.

Why not just chill out and see how things transpire? :smokin

original PM
4th July 2017, 16:17
WHS. Honestly, the Remainers here are obsessed to the point of madness.

Why not just chill out and see how things transpire? :smokin

Indeed everyday is a popcorn day.

MeMeMe1966
4th July 2017, 16:21
I am always confused by those that say the bus slogan was a lie. It was certainly misleading but was it a lie?

"We send the EU £350 million a week, let's fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave. Let's take back control."

So prior to the rebate we do send them £350 million a week, this isn't a lie exactly? It just doesn't give them the net contribution amount. "Let's fund our NHS instead". It doesn't say that the amount available to fund the NHS if we left the EU would be £350m although it implies it. It also doesn't mention that funding the NHS instead would be at the expense of EU money spent in the poorer areas of the UK. This is also misleading.

I've always been uneasy about the claim that the bus slogan was a lie. Certainly misleading but i wouldn't call it a lie.

PurpleGorilla
4th July 2017, 16:23
Where we pay but don't have a say..

Stop remoaning then and push for hard brexit.

AtW
4th July 2017, 16:27
I am always confused by those that say the bus slogan was a lie. It was certainly misleading but was it a lie?

No, it wasn't a lie, it was misleading, therefore fraudulent.

OwlHoot
4th July 2017, 16:28
I am always confused by those that say the bus slogan was a lie. It was certainly misleading but was it a lie?

"We send the EU £350 million a week, let's fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave. Let's take back control."

So prior to the rebate we do send them £350 million a week, this isn't a lie exactly? It just doesn't give them the net contribution amount. "Let's fund our NHS instead". It doesn't say that the amount available to fund the NHS if we left the EU would be £350m although it implies it. It also doesn't mention that funding the NHS instead would be at the expense of EU money spent in the poorer areas of the UK. This is also misleading.

I've always been uneasy about the claim that the bus slogan was a lie. Certainly misleading but i wouldn't call it a lie.

Judging by recent reports of other EU countries anticipating having to cough up an extra £20 billion each annually after Brexit, it wasn't a lie at all.

BlasterBates
4th July 2017, 16:28
Brexit: Minister appointed to negotiate Britain's withdrawal wants European Union 'wholly torn down' | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-european-union-eu-steve-baker-theresa-may-wholly-torn-down-libertarian-alliance-a7820721.html)

The Tory government is immensely entertaining. Government ministers make Corbyn look like a great statesman.


:rollin:

PurpleGorilla
4th July 2017, 16:30
No, it wasn't a lie, it was misleading, therefore fraudulent.

Fraud!

Lol that's a bit much!

MeMeMe1966
4th July 2017, 16:40
No, it wasn't a lie, it was misleading, therefore fraudulent.


Not sure if misleading in advertising = fraudulent?

McDonalds – “I’m Lovin’ It” <---- usually it's more roadside services "i'm dreading it" but too hungry to drive anymore

KFC – “Finger Lickin’ Good” <------ KFC usually leaves your fingers covered in yucky grease, most people don't lick their fingers after a KFC.

Carlsberg – “Probably the Best Beer in the World” <------- Debatable


I think there is a certain latitude allowed in advertising?

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 16:48
I am always confused by those that say the bus slogan was a lie. It was certainly misleading but was it a lie?

"We send the EU £350 million a week, let's fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave. Let's take back control."

So prior to the rebate we do send them £350 million a week, this isn't a lie exactly? It just doesn't give them the net contribution amount. "Let's fund our NHS instead". It doesn't say that the amount available to fund the NHS if we left the EU would be £350m although it implies it. It also doesn't mention that funding the NHS instead would be at the expense of EU money spent in the poorer areas of the UK. This is also misleading.

I've always been uneasy about the claim that the bus slogan was a lie. Certainly misleading but i wouldn't call it a lie.

Does the UK send the rebate money and get it back or does it not send the rebate money in the first place?

MeMeMe1966
4th July 2017, 16:55
Does the UK send the rebate money and get it back or does it not send the rebate money in the first place?

Good point. I don't actually know. If they never send it then the bus was definitely a lie. Rebate usually means getting money back after the recipient holds it for awhile but who knows for sure in this case.

AtW
4th July 2017, 17:03
Not sure if misleading in advertising = fraudulent?

"Section 1 creates a general offence of fraud and introduces three ways of committing it set out in Sections 2, 3 and 4.

Fraud by false representation (Section 2);
Fraud by failure to disclose information when there is a legal duty to do so (Section 3); and
Fraud by abuse of position (Section 4).

In each case:

the defendant's conduct must be dishonest;
his/her intention must be to make a gain; or cause a loss or the risk of a loss to another.
No gain or loss needs actually to have been made.
The maximum sentence is 10 years' imprisonment.

Fraud by false representation (Section 2)

The defendant:

made a false representation
dishonestly
knowing that the representation was or might be untrue or misleading
with intent to make a gain for himself or another, to cause loss to another or to expose another to risk of loss.

The offence is entirely focused on the conduct of the defendant. "

Fraud Act: Legal Guidance: The Crown Prosecution Service (http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/d_to_g/fraud_act/#offences)

jamesbrown
4th July 2017, 17:07
Does the UK send the rebate money and get it back or does it not send the rebate money in the first place?

What was your favourite remain porkie? WWIII and the end of western political civilisation were LOUD, but a little desperate. Households being £4300 worse off was a porkie for the connoisseurs. The immediate Brexit recession and collapse in house prices were arguably most effective...for Leave. What was your favourite remain porkie?

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 17:09
Good point. I don't actually know. If they never send it then the bus was definitely a lie. Rebate usually means getting money back after the recipient holds it for awhile but who knows for sure in this case.

From wiki.

There is no transfer of money from the European Commission to the UK Treasury involved; the effect of the rebate is to reduce the size of the UK's payments.[

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 17:13
What was your favourite remain porkie? WWIII and the end of western political civilisation were LOUD, but a little desperate. Households being £4300 worse off was a porkie for the connoisseurs. The immediate Brexit recession and collapse in house prices were arguably most effective...for Leave. What was your favourite remain porkie?

Let up start with WWIII and the end of western political civilisation. I don't remember those. Linky?

AtW
4th July 2017, 17:16
Not sure if misleading in advertising = fraudulent?

McDonalds – “I’m Lovin’ It” <---- usually it's more roadside services "i'm dreading it" but too hungry to drive anymore

KFC – “Finger Lickin’ Good” <------ KFC usually leaves your fingers covered in yucky grease, most people don't lick their fingers after a KFC.

Carlsberg – “Probably the Best Beer in the World” <------- Debatable

Relative terms, matters of opinion.

Now if the Leave crowd had a message on the bus: "Leaving EU is probably going to be good" then it would be a somewhat different matter than outright lie about £350 mln given to NHS.

jamesbrown
4th July 2017, 17:22
Let up start with WWIII and the end of western political civilisation. I don't remember those. Linky?

WWIII was Hamface. Serried rows of white headstones (British Museum IIRC). End of civilisation was Tusk (don't recall the event). Sorry, political civilisation.

MeMeMe1966
4th July 2017, 17:31
From wiki.

There is no transfer of money from the European Commission to the UK Treasury involved; the effect of the rebate is to reduce the size of the UK's payments.[

Then it was a lie. I stand corrected.

I'm still slightly uneasy about the claims that this lie is what swung the vote. I think people are used to being "advertised at" and take these slogans with a pinch of salt. To say that the people who voted leave "were lied to and poor them and had they only known the truth" (I'm paraphrasing) is assuming that these people are fresh out of some jungle and have not been desensitised to the over-the-top claims made in advertising on signs in shops, on TV, billboards, etc.

I did vote remain but I'm more angry at the shocking campaign run by the remain team then by any advertising put out by the Brexit brigade. How did they think the optics would work when Bob Geldoff challenges fishermen in the Thames? Or when BMW writes to their staff ahead of a free and fair election? The bus was a lie but I still think the remain campaign snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by creating the perception of an "underdog" side in the minds of the electorate.

Cirrus
4th July 2017, 18:13
car manufacturers now warning of mass layoffs next year Where did you hear that:confused:

Car plants tend to be on multi-year plans. It will be quite a few years before production can be moved.

The UK market is presently down which will cut the number of shifts. But that might just be cyclical - sales have been high until recently.

original PM
4th July 2017, 18:15
Then it was a lie. I stand corrected.

I'm still slightly uneasy about the claims that this lie is what swung the vote. I think people are used to being "advertised at" and take these slogans with a pinch of salt. To say that the people who voted leave "were lied to and poor them and had they only known the truth" (I'm paraphrasing) is assuming that these people are fresh out of some jungle and have not been desensitised to the over-the-top claims made in advertising on signs in shops, on TV, billboards, etc.

I did vote remain but I'm more angry at the shocking campaign run by the remain team then by any advertising put out by the Brexit brigade. How did they think the optics would work when Bob Geldoff challenges fishermen in the Thames? Or when BMW writes to their staff ahead of a free and fair election? The bus was a lie but I still think the remain campaign snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by creating the perception of an "underdog" side in the minds of the electorate.

If you look at it in a different light it is quite an interesting proposition.

We have been part of the 'EU' in its various guises since 1973 and on the whole it has been a benefit to be a part of a large group of like minded people with similar outlooks and aspirations however over the last 5 years and possibly longer the EU has been growing into a political movement which no one really wanted.

And over the years rules and regulations - most of them good for most people in general - have grown.

However this is a democratic body and as such we have the right to leave.

So for the good of the people of the EU we have decided to test exactly how democratic this body is be exercising the simple right of leaving them.

The world has changed since 1973 - the huge increase in global communications, 24/7 always on the go availability and and the hugely beneficial breaking down of borders has meant that next decade needs to be looked from a different perspective.

And so we need to say good bye to those comfy things - and we need to say - in 2025 what is the great Britain I want to live in?

And then go and make it.

Mordac
4th July 2017, 18:22
"One of the masterminds behind the Brexit vote has performed an astonishing U-turn by admitting that leaving the EU may be “an error”.
"Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director, described the referendum as a “dumb idea”

Should we be calling him a 'mastermind' then?
:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:rollin::rollin::rol lin::rollin:

We really must be the laughing stock of the world
This country gets all it deserves.
Complete plonkers playing games at the top and enough useful idiots to exploit, as this forum shows.

You should read Tim Shipman's book (All Out War) before making wild assumptions, there was a lot going on behind the scenes that we never really got to hear about. For example, Cummings was basically a "gun for hire" and he was hired because he was the best. He had "reservations" about the EU, but would have happily worked for the other side (and by some accounts nearly did) if they'd got there first. Cameron dithered, so he went to the Leave side - but it was just a job. At a handsome rate, mind, but we all have to earn a crust.
But yes, we should call him a mastermind, because despite project fear, and mutinous Tory backbenchers, he led the winning team, against all the odds.

chopper
4th July 2017, 18:32
Let up start with WWIII and the end of western political civilisation. I don't remember those. Linky?

David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/08/cameron-brexit-will-increase-risk-of-europe-descending-into-war/)

Juncker also made the claim in December 2016 in response to the Italian referendum and to push his European Army agenda.
Jean-Claude Juncker: EU boss predicts populism will lead to war in Europe | Politics | News | Express.co.uk (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/740141/Jean-Claude-Juncker-EU-boss-populism-war-Europe-WW3)

Mordac
4th July 2017, 18:41
Relative terms, matters of opinion.

Now if the Leave crowd had a message on the bus: "Leaving EU is probably going to be good" then it would be a somewhat different matter than outright lie about £350 mln given to NHS.

Even Farage disowned that statement, and most of the Leave team weren't happy about it, but once Osbourne and Co. created their Domesday Scenario, everything was back on the table. "Leaving the EU is probably going to be good" is not as punchy as "we could spend that £350m on the NHS", is it? This was probably the dirtiest campaign ever fought in the UK, and was never going to be won by the side which played nicest. It was only ever going to be won by the side which played smartest. Sorry to break it to you, but politics is a grubby game, and no-one ever votes for the nice people. Not that anyone in politics is actually nice.

darmstadt
4th July 2017, 18:54
Where did you hear that:confused:

Car plants tend to be on multi-year plans. It will be quite a few years before production can be moved.

The UK market is presently down which will cut the number of shifts. But that might just be cyclical - sales have been high until recently.

There was an article in the FT a few days ago: https://www.ft.com/content/0c3427b2-5ce1-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b?mhq5j=e1

But basically investment in the UK car industry has fallen to just £322m in the first half of 2017, in a sign that companies are delaying or cancelling spending ahead of the UK leaving the EU. Last year £1.66bn was invested in the auto sector, more than 30 per cent down from £2.5bn in 2015...But investment looks to have fallen even further in the first six months of this year...If the same levels of investment are seen in the second half of the year, it would bring total annual spend on the UK car industry to just £644m — nearly one-quarter of the amount invested two years ago and a sharper fall than many in the industry had expected...output of UK cars had fallen almost 10 per cent in May compared with last year, the second straight month of year-on-year decline...

original PM
4th July 2017, 19:02
There was an article in the FT a few days ago: https://www.ft.com/content/0c3427b2-5ce1-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b?mhq5j=e1

But basically investment in the UK car industry has fallen to just £322m in the first half of 2017, in a sign that companies are delaying or cancelling spending ahead of the UK leaving the EU. Last year £1.66bn was invested in the auto sector, more than 30 per cent down from £2.5bn in 2015...But investment looks to have fallen even further in the first six months of this year...If the same levels of investment are seen in the second half of the year, it would bring total annual spend on the UK car industry to just £644m — nearly one-quarter of the amount invested two years ago and a sharper fall than many in the industry had expected...output of UK cars had fallen almost 10 per cent in May compared with last year, the second straight month of year-on-year decline...

So it was going down prior to 2016?

Of course it was why invest in the UK when you can invest in the old Eastern block countries for a huge reduction in wages.

Or just employ immigrants for substantially less than the locals.

It's a race to the bottom and I'm out.

vetran
4th July 2017, 19:06
So it was going down prior to 2016?

Of course it was why invest in the UK when you can invest in the old Eastern block countries for a huge reduction in wages.

Or just employ immigrants for substantially less than the locals.

It's a race to the bottom and I'm out.

no its all Brexits fault , get with the program!

Paddy
4th July 2017, 19:21
So it was going down prior to 2016?

Of course it was why invest in the UK when you can invest in the old Eastern block countries for a huge reduction in wages.

Or just employ immigrants for substantially less than the locals.

It's a race to the bottom and I'm out.
It's not just wages, land is cheaper, tax is less, business rates much less and less red tape.

darmstadt
4th July 2017, 19:33
It's a race to the bottom and I'm out.

Why, you leaving the UK as well?

Mordac
4th July 2017, 19:33
There was an article in the FT a few days ago: https://www.ft.com/content/0c3427b2-5ce1-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b?mhq5j=e1

But basically investment in the UK car industry has fallen to just £322m in the first half of 2017, in a sign that companies are delaying or cancelling spending ahead of the UK leaving the EU. Last year £1.66bn was invested in the auto sector, more than 30 per cent down from £2.5bn in 2015...But investment looks to have fallen even further in the first six months of this year...If the same levels of investment are seen in the second half of the year, it would bring total annual spend on the UK car industry to just £644m — nearly one-quarter of the amount invested two years ago and a sharper fall than many in the industry had expected...output of UK cars had fallen almost 10 per cent in May compared with last year, the second straight month of year-on-year decline...

Motor manufacturers are probably waiting to find out how much they can squeeze out of the EU to build plants elsewhere in the EU, or perhaps even outside the EU. They already know the Germans will see to it that there are no tariffs on cars between the EU and UK (for reasons we already know, so there's no need to go over it again) so it may simply be the case that the EU want to shaft the UK by tempting manufacturers away with their nifty little backhanders, sorry, loans. It might even work for a while, until people realise the car they thought they were buying wasn't built where they thought it was built. Would you be happy to pay German prices for a supposedly German car built in Romania? And if you found out your Ford was now made in Turkey, would you still want one quite as much? This isn't the 1970's anymore, we can now actually build stuff that won't fall apart within a fortnight, but when the EU starts bribing car-makers to build their factories somewhere else, it does start to look just a little bit wrong.

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 19:44
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/08/cameron-brexit-will-increase-risk-of-europe-descending-into-war/)

Juncker also made the claim in December 2016 in response to the Italian referendum and to push his European Army agenda.
Jean-Claude Juncker: EU boss predicts populism will lead to war in Europe | Politics | News | Express.co.uk (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/740141/Jean-Claude-Juncker-EU-boss-populism-war-Europe-WW3)

Is this Cameron's ww3 statement? One of the porkies?

"Whenever we turn our back on Europe, sooner or later we come to regret it. We have always had to go back in, and always at much higher cost," he will say.

"The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe.

"Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption."

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 19:49
Is this Cameron's ww3 statement? One of the porkies?

"Whenever we turn our back on Europe, sooner or later we come to regret it. We have always had to go back in, and always at much higher cost," he will say.

"The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe.

"Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption."

I cannot see Juncker's words in context. Just a few choice edits. Can anyone help?

original PM
4th July 2017, 19:50
Why, you leaving the UK as well?

No that is why I am staying.

Human life is worth more than that.

We are not interchangeable meat sacks.

jamesbrown
4th July 2017, 19:51
Britain Stronger in Europe campaign HQ, Spring 2016.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/48/3e/4a/483e4a72efa5ddc42a9ab2740234f323.gif


Vote Leave campaign HQ, Spring 2016.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/48/3e/4a/483e4a72efa5ddc42a9ab2740234f323.gif

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 19:56
What was your favourite remain porkie? WWIII and the end of western political civilisation were LOUD, but a little desperate. Households being £4300 worse off was a porkie for the connoisseurs. The immediate Brexit recession and collapse in house prices were arguably most effective...for Leave. What was your favourite remain porkie?

Still trying to choose. Any more links?

SueEllen
4th July 2017, 20:00
My favourite remain porker was called David Cameron.

Lock him in prison with the warmonger Blair.

jamesbrown
4th July 2017, 20:01
Still trying to choose. Any more links?

Eagerly awaiting your choice.

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 20:09
Eagerly awaiting your choice.

Show me some links of your recommendations.

Mordac
4th July 2017, 20:15
My favourite remain porker was called David Cameron.

Lock him in prison with the warmonger Blair.

A bit harsh. If we locked up people for lying (other than for actual criminal offences such as perjury) we'd have no spaces left for real criminals. And attempting to copulate with a dead pigs head isn't a crime, at least not in this country. Yet.

BlasterBates
4th July 2017, 20:16
The leave campaign not only lied they also lied about the "lies" from the Remain campaign.

It reminds me of when the Deutsche Bahn was in a wrangle with the Unions and an expert said that management were making mistake by trying to have a reasoned
debate.

You can't have reasoned or grown up debates with Eurosceptics, nor should you try.

:D

vetran
4th July 2017, 20:18
You can't have reasoned or grown up debates with Europhiles, nor should you try.

:D

FTFY...

BlasterBates
4th July 2017, 20:22
FTFY...

The best way to deal with Eurosceptics is to support Brexit, so they get to experience it.

:D

jamesbrown
4th July 2017, 20:23
Show me some links of your recommendations.

Still eager.

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:27
Even Farage disowned that statement, and most of the Leave team weren't happy about it, but once Osbourne and Co. created their Domesday Scenario, everything was back on the table. "Leaving the EU is probably going to be good" is not as punchy as "we could spend that £350m on the NHS", is it? This was probably the dirtiest campaign ever fought in the UK, and was never going to be won by the side which played nicest. It was only ever going to be won by the side which played smartest. Sorry to break it to you, but politics is a grubby game, and no-one ever votes for the nice people. Not that anyone in politics is actually nice.

Yeah Farage disowned it after he won :laugh

Fraudulent claim that crypto can make 4-7% per motn is much punchier than "you will probably get high yields in crypto"

vetran
4th July 2017, 20:28
Still eager.

so is NLyUK cross her(?) palm with copper and you will be surprised (in many ways).

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 20:29
Still eager.

More than prepared to believe that the remain campaign lied as you say but you haven't shown me any. You let yourself down badly with ww3. Now is your chance.

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:29
The best way to deal with Eurosceptics is to support Brexit, so they get to experience it.

:D

Soup kichens - humanitarian aid form EU :laugh

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:35
Motor manufacturers are probably waiting to find out how much they can squeeze out of the EU to build plants elsewhere in the EU, or perhaps even outside the EU. They already know the Germans will see to it that there are no tariffs on cars between the EU and UK (for reasons we already know, so there's no need to go over it again) so it may simply be the case that the EU want to shaft the UK by tempting manufacturers away with their nifty little backhanders, sorry, loans. It might even work for a while, until people realise the car they thought they were buying wasn't built where they thought it was built. Would you be happy to pay German prices for a supposedly German car built in Romania? And if you found out your Ford was now made in Turkey, would you still want one quite as much? This isn't the 1970's anymore, we can now actually build stuff that won't fall apart within a fortnight, but when the EU starts bribing car-makers to build their factories somewhere else, it does start to look just a little bit wrong.

How about Nissans made in UK and sold in EU, or Hondas from Swindon? :laugh

jamesbrown
4th July 2017, 20:37
More than prepared to believe that the remain campaign lied as you say but you haven't shown me any. You let yourself down badly with ww3. Now is your chance.

I sense you enjoyed the methodology of the connoisseurs porkie. Don't be shy.

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:38
Where did you hear that:confused:

Car plants tend to be on multi-year plans. It will be quite a few years before production can be moved.

The UK market is presently down which will cut the number of shifts. But that might just be cyclical - sales have been high until recently.

You know better than people who actually make cars in UK? :laugh

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:40
So it was going down prior to 2016?

Of course it was why invest in the UK when you can invest in the old Eastern block countries for a huge reduction in wages.

Or just employ immigrants for substantially less than the locals.

It's a race to the bottom and I'm out.

Yes, in second half of 2016 for some reason it dropped... :laugh

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 20:42
I sense you enjoyed the methodology of the connoisseurs porkie. Don't be shy.

You don't want to back up your allegations for whatever reason. I can't remember any Remain lies - maybe I've forgotten them. So remind me and I'll choose. Otherwise, I'll just chuckle to myself at your ww3 nonsense.

DimPrawn
4th July 2017, 20:43
Yawn.

Does anyone GAF about the red bus?

Honestly.


Indeed. Thank goodness for blue buses.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/nintchdbpict000328347656.jpg?strip=all&w=640&quality=100

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:47
You don't want to back up your allegations for whatever reason. I can't remember any Remain lies - maybe I've forgotten them. So remind me and I'll choose. Otherwise, I'll just chuckle to myself at your ww3 nonsense.

To be fair there was one blatant lie - that the economy will crash after Brexit, the truth is that economy is crashing even before Brexit happened...

SueEllen
4th July 2017, 20:52
To be fair there was one blatant lie - that the economy will crash after Brexit, the truth is that economy is crashing even before Brexit happened...

Blame Gidiot

AtW
4th July 2017, 20:59
Blame Gidiot

Problem is that current lot will make him look like great statesmen

vetran
4th July 2017, 21:00
Leave Lies? Remainers Need To Look In The Mirror | HuffPost UK (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/leave-lies-remainers-need_b_12191462.html)

https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/42796/Establishment+Remain+and+Leave+campaigns+ramp+up+f ear%2C+lies+and+racism

DimPrawn
4th July 2017, 21:02
It's also fair to say, no one expected Mrs May to be in charge at the time we voted.

But we are here now, so let's sit back and enjoy the show!

:popcorn:

northernladyuk
4th July 2017, 21:05
Leave Lies? Remainers Need To Look In The Mirror | HuffPost UK (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/leave-lies-remainers-need_b_12191462.html)

https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/42796/Establishment+Remain+and+Leave+campaigns+ramp+up+f ear%2C+lies+and+racism

Huffington Post starts with:


The UK gives the EU a gross contribution of £350 million a week. This is not a lie, and it is an amount which could be spent on the NHS if the UK Government so wished. These are usually touted as lies, but this stems from ‘Remain’ campaigners being unable to tell the difference between the words ‘gross’ and ‘net’ as well as the difference between the words ‘could’ and ‘will’.

Except it is a lie.

Could you show us an actual lie please? Start with one and we'll work from there.

AtW
4th July 2017, 21:13
It's also fair to say, no one expected Mrs May to be in charge at the time we voted.

But we are here now, so let's sit back and enjoy the show!

:popcorn:

Relax and try to enjoy it?

:eyes

sasguru
4th July 2017, 21:16
It's also fair to say, no one expected Mrs May to be in charge at the time we voted.

But we are here now, so let's sit back and enjoy the show!

:popcorn:

It really is quite interesting trying to see you wriggle out psychologically from your stupid voting decision. A couple of weeks ago you were trying to blame Corbyn till it penetrated even your tiny little brain cell that he wasn't in power :laugh:laugh: :rollin:

sasguru
4th July 2017, 21:19
So it was going down prior to 2016?

Of course it was why invest in the UK when you can invest in the old Eastern block countries for a huge reduction in wages.

Or just employ immigrants for substantially less than the locals.

It's a race to the bottom and I'm out.

You were never in.

AtW
4th July 2017, 21:22
It really is quite interesting trying to see you wriggle out psychologically from your stupid voting decision. A couple of weeks ago you were trying to blame Corbyn till it penetrated even your tiny little brain cell that he wasn't in power :laugh:laugh: :rollin:

He knows it is a fooking retarded decision.

He just wants the whole country to burn down now, whilst he having prawn cocktails in his Cyprus villa

Mordac
4th July 2017, 21:46
You were never in.

In which case, what exactly did he vote to Leave?

Mordac
4th July 2017, 21:49
How about Nissans made in UK and sold in EU, or Hondas from Swindon? :laugh

Hence:


They already know the Germans will see to it that there are no tariffs on cars between the EU and UK (for reasons we already know, so there's no need to go over it again)

I don't expect you to read every post you respond to, but you could at least read mine. :eyes

Mordac
4th July 2017, 21:52
Yeah Farage disowned it after he won :laugh

Fraudulent claim that crypto can make 4-7% per motn is much punchier than "you will probably get high yields in crypto"

Farage disowned it on the day the bus rode out, just for the record. He thought it was a crap slogan, and so did I. It worked though, or maybe it made no difference; whichever it was, I don't really care. :smokin

AtW
4th July 2017, 21:52
Hence:



I don't expect you to read every post you respond to, but you could at least read mine. :eyes

I read.

German cars got no real alternative - Merc, Audi, VW, Skoda: they own the market, sales will dorp because a lot less people in UK will be able to afford it due to Sterling drop, nevermind 10% WTO tariff, which many UK manufacturers wil be payng twice due to import-reexport-import of parts

Mordac
4th July 2017, 21:57
I read.

German cars got no real alternative - Merc, Audi, VW, Skoda: they own the market, sales will dorp because a lot less people in UK will be able to afford it due to Sterling drop, nevermind 10% WTO tariff, which many UK manufacturers wil be payng twice due to import-reexport-import of parts

Which will f**k over the Germans far more than the Japanese hosted in the UK. Do the numbers. German exports to the UK far outweigh UK-made Japanese exports to the EU. So tariffs won't happen. If they do, the Germans will have had to swallow a mahoosive pill against their will, and do you really think they'd take that?

AtW
4th July 2017, 22:07
Which will f**k over the Germans far more than the Japanese hosted in the UK. Do the numbers. German exports to the UK far outweigh UK-made Japanese exports to the EU. So tariffs won't happen. If they do, the Germans will have had to swallow a mahoosive pill against their will, and do you really think they'd take that?

Calculus is obvious - Japanese will move most of production within 10 years, so no internally made cars then, what alternative to imports? Driving F reg Fiestas

Germany managed Soviet occupation, they will manage Brexit easily - they stand to gain loads, this is Dunkirk 2 with immediate surrender, thanks to Farage and assorted cretins supporting him, well done

Mordac
4th July 2017, 22:15
Calculus is obvious - Japanese will move most of production within 10 years, so no internally made cars then, what alternative to imports? Driving F reg Fiestas

Germany managed Soviet occupation, they will manage Brexit easily - they stand to gain loads, this is Dunkirk 2 with immediate surrender, thanks to Farage and assorted cretins supporting him, well done

You may be right, you may not. We'll find out soon enough, but there are enough idiots buying top of the range Mercs (see what I did there :wink) that the Germans will want to avoid tariffs on cars. Can't believe I had to say that again.

AtW
4th July 2017, 22:28
You may be right, you may not. We'll find out soon enough, but there are enough idiots buying top of the range Mercs (see what I did there :wink) that the Germans will want to avoid tariffs on cars. Can't believe I had to say that again.

Germans got principles at stake - it's very foolish to assume they would sell them out for market access... maybe for China, but not inside EU, won't happen - they stand to benefit a lot from business moved there, I reckon overall it will be net positive for them

PurpleGorilla
4th July 2017, 22:44
Let up start with WWIII and the end of western political civilisation. I don't remember those. Linky?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36515680

Mr Tusk said a vote to leave the EU would boost anti-European forces.

"As a historian I fear Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilisation in its entirety," he told the German newspaper Bild.

AtW
4th July 2017, 22:59
So the only viable option is to destroy Brexiters

jamesbrown
5th July 2017, 00:46
You don't want to back up your allegations for whatever reason. I can't remember any Remain lies - maybe I've forgotten them. So remind me and I'll choose. Otherwise, I'll just chuckle to myself at your ww3 nonsense.

Yes, perhaps you've forgotten them. Let's begin at the beginning and take them in porkie pairs.

Timely triggering of Article 50 (http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/cameron-government-would-promptly-trigger-article-50-in-the-event-of-a-leave-vote/) vs. immediate Brexit recession (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564). Before you decide, consider the former a conditional porkie (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-says-he-will-not-stand-down-even-if-he-loses-the-eu-referendum-a7077801.html).

Of course, these were mere "possibilities" and "scenarios", not really "promises". Let's be generous and call them white or, perhaps, grey porkies (calibrated porkies?), planting a seed with the intent to deceive.

WTFH
5th July 2017, 06:46
WWIII was Hamface. Serried rows of white headstones (British Museum IIRC).

Talk about taking a quote out of context. You chose to quote 5 words out of a sentence and claim that it was proof that Cameron was claiming WWIII would start. Let's look at the full sentence...

"The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe."

Doesn't say anything about war going forward, instead it talks about people who gave their lives in the past to bring peace to Europe.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 06:52
Yes, perhaps you've forgotten them. Let's begin at the beginning and take them in porkie pairs.

Timely triggering of Article 50 (http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/cameron-government-would-promptly-trigger-article-50-in-the-event-of-a-leave-vote/) vs. immediate Brexit recession (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564). Before you decide, consider the former a conditional porkie (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-says-he-will-not-stand-down-even-if-he-loses-the-eu-referendum-a7077801.html).

Of course, these were mere "possibilities" and "scenarios", not really "promises". Let's be generous and call them white or, perhaps, grey porkies (calibrated porkies?), planting a seed with the intent to deceive.

Pretty thin gruel isn't it?

I don't see an economic analysis looking at a 'black swan' style scenario as a lie, unless it was cooked up deliberately as a falsehood to deceive - possible of course, is there any evidence?

Cameron - yes that's a good one. PM pretends he won't resign if he loses a vote. That's my favourite so far.

I'm interested in others. I'm as interested in why you lied about remain ww3 lies - or have I misunderstood?

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 06:52
So the only viable option is to destroy Brexiters

Label them as saboteurs and they'll self-crush.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 06:54
Donald Tusk: Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36515680)

Mr Tusk said a vote to leave the EU would boost anti-European forces.

"As a historian I fear Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilisation in its entirety," he told the German newspaper Bild.

Thanks for the link. Now show me the lie.

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 07:11
Thanks for the link. Now show me the lie.

I didn't say he was lying.

But so far, it's not come to pass.

Route cause analysis by historians is highly subjective.

Was the killing of the Arch Duke really the tigger for WW1?

Or was the social and political circumstances of the day the cause?

Any which way I think Tusk is being melodramatic.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 07:34
I didn't say he was lying.

But so far, it's not come to pass.

Route cause analysis by historians is highly subjective.

Was the killing of the Arch Duke really the tigger for WW1?

Or was the social and political circumstances of the day the cause?

Any which way I think Tusk is being melodramatic.

Tusk didn't say it would come to pass. Is this another of brownie's Remain lies?

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 07:42
Tusk didn't say it would come to pass. Is this another of brownie's Remain lies?

Who knows, but maybe his focus would be better spent in taking brexit for what it is, a massive wake up call for the EU to sort it's tulip out!

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 08:01
Who knows, but maybe his focus would be better spent in taking brexit for what it is, a massive wake up call for the EU to sort it's tulip out!

So nothing to do with Remain lies then. Cheers.

Cirrus
5th July 2017, 08:11
Who knows, but maybe his focus would be better spent in taking brexit for what it is, a massive wake up call for the EU to sort it's tulip out! This is the whole point, Purp. It's not a 'wake up call'. It's the UK massively self harming. Millions of people pressing the self destruct button (and taking out innocent bystanders like us remainers).

None of you make any sensible point about what is wrong with the EU as distinct from all the other totally useless, corrupt governments around the entire globe. (And that certainly includes ours)

Of course we could all whinge on about the EU but a) thinking you can 'sort its tulip out' and b) thinking an appropriate strategy is to beat yourself up, well it utterly beggars belief. Is our school system so flawed it turns out people with virtually zero capability of rational thinking?

There is clear movement away from Brexit - the raw percentages are changing in polls and everyone is talking about 'soft Brexit'. Whilst I have to accept nobody knows what the means, you have to say Brexit means Brexit. If you're clasping at soft straws, you are actually realising you've made a big mistake.

Brexit won't be Brexit by the looks of it. But the damage is done. Why didn't people think about this beforehand? Why did they shoot first and think second?

BrilloPad
5th July 2017, 08:15
None of you make any sensible point about what is wrong with the EU as distinct from all the other totally useless, corrupt governments around the entire globe. (And that certainly includes ours)


At least they are ours. And we are not participating in the creation of a 4th reich.



Why didn't people think about this beforehand? Why did they shoot first and think second?


It was a protest vote against growing equality. Sadly it will not make any difference. We need a good depression.

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 08:23
This is the whole point, Purp. It's not a 'wake up call'. It's the UK massively self harming. Millions of people pressing the self destruct button (and taking out innocent bystanders like us remainers).

None of you make any sensible point about what is wrong with the EU as distinct from all the other totally useless, corrupt governments around the entire globe. (And that certainly includes ours)

Of course we could all whinge on about the EU but a) thinking you can 'sort its tulip out' and b) thinking an appropriate strategy is to beat yourself up, well it utterly beggars belief. Is our school system so flawed it turns out people with virtually zero capability of rational thinking?

There is clear movement away from Brexit - the raw percentages are changing in polls and everyone is talking about 'soft Brexit'. Whilst I have to accept nobody knows what the means, you have to say Brexit means Brexit. If you're clasping at soft straws, you are actually realising you've made a big mistake.

Brexit won't be Brexit by the looks of it. But the damage is done. Why didn't people think about this beforehand? Why did they shoot first and think second?

The EU is massively self harming. Look at youth unemployment in Southern Europe. 30-45% youth unemployment. That's self harming.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 08:24
The EU is massively self harming. Look at youth unemployment in Southern Europe. 30-45% youth unemployment. That's self harming.

Yes, the Euro is a screw-up of almighty proportions.

The_Equalizer
5th July 2017, 08:31
Yes, the Euro is a screw-up of almighty proportions.

And yet there's absolutely no chance of anything been done about it. One of the few excellent things Brown did was keep us out of the Euro otherwise we'd would have already been rightly royally in 2008. No one seems to mention this.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 08:43
And yet there's absolutely no chance of anything been done about it. One of the few excellent things Brown did was keep us out of the Euro otherwise we'd would have already been rightly royally in 2008. No one seems to mention this.

It is a cluster**** alright. Hard to unwind now.

original PM
5th July 2017, 08:47
It is a cluster**** alright. Hard to unwind now.

Indeed - good job some of us had the sense to decide to leave so we can at least ensure we are not caught up.....

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 08:49
Indeed - good job some of us had the sense to decide to leave so we can at least ensure we are not caught up.....

The UK isn't in the Eurozone.

BlasterBates
5th July 2017, 09:31
The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

If your assets are in Euros you are a lot better off than if your assets had been in pound sterling.

The Brexit vote was a huge boost for anyone holding Euros.


:D

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 09:34
The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

If your assets are in Euros you are a lot better off than if your assets had been in pound sterling.

The Brexit vote was a huge boost for anyone holding Euros.


:D

That is a very narrow way of looking at it. The inability of Southern European economies and of Ireland to devalue currency or to set interest rates has caused massive hardship and continues to do so. Of course, that doesn't mean that Brexit is a good idea.

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 09:42
That is a very narrow way of looking at it. The inability of Southern European economies and of Ireland to devalue currency or to set interest rates has caused massive hardship and continues to do so. Of course, that doesn't mean that Brexit is a good idea.

No - but the intransigence of the EU as demonstrated by the Euro economic crisis management - is a good reason to bail before the ship goes down.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 09:48
No - but the intransigence of the EU as demonstrated by the Euro economic crisis management - is a good reason to bail before the ship goes down.

It depends on the two outcomes (Remain and Leave). Not looking good so far for Leave.

scooterscot
5th July 2017, 09:48
Move on people, next stop EEA...

And I guess the magic money tree will provide the access fees to the single market?

AtW
5th July 2017, 09:52
He did not want to leave the EU, he was just doing his job, it was just ze money! :eyes

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 09:57
And I guess the magic money tree will provide the access fees to the single market?

A big BTL tax for foreign nationals and non UK residents would help pay for the access.

AtW
5th July 2017, 10:01
A big BTL tax for foreign nationals and non UK residents would help pay for the access.

350 mln per week?

bobspud
5th July 2017, 10:08
None of you make any sensible point about what is wrong with the EU as distinct from all the other totally useless, corrupt governments around the entire globe. (And that certainly includes ours)


Here you go then:

The EU has never once in its existence filed a set of audited accounts for the billions of euros that it receives and spends on it's members behalf. The only whistle blower that ever tried to stand up and unearth the truth about massive corruption and lost funds was hounded out of her job and profession... That was nearly 20 years ago and since her departure not a single thing changed apart from some banks lying about the financial state of Greece and a flood of other countries so they could get into the club.

You cannot build an organisation that always expects more in an environment with finite resources. At some point that bubble must burst and then a new leaner thing takes its natural place over the corpse of the old dinosaur until the cycle repeats.

Regardless of the pain the EU must perish so that the Millennials can remake something new that is less based on baby boomer greed. With this in mind I believe the next big thing will be something like government as a platform or some of the other cross country initiatives that are based on citizen needs not diplomatic lifestyles...

darmstadt
5th July 2017, 10:11
Here you go then:

The EU has never once in its existence filed a set of audited accounts for the billions of euros that it receives and spends on it's members behalf. The only whistle blower that ever tried to stand up and unearth the truth about massive corruption and lost funds was hounded out of her job and profession... That was nearly 20 years ago and since her departure not a single thing changed apart from some banks lying about the financial state of Greece and a flood of other countries so they could get into the club.

You cannot build an organisation that always expects more in an environment with finite resources. At some point that bubble must burst and then a new leaner thing takes its natural place over the corpse of the old dinosaur until the cycle repeats.

Regardless of the pain the EU must perish so that the Millennials can remake something new that is less based on baby boomer greed. With this in mind I believe the next big thing will be something like government as a platform or some of the other cross country initiatives that are based on citizen needs not diplomatic lifestyles...

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 10:13
Here you go then:

The EU has never once in its existence filed a set of audited accounts for the billions of euros that it receives and spends on it's members behalf. The only whistle blower that ever tried to stand up and unearth the truth about massive corruption and lost funds was hounded out of her job and profession... That was nearly 20 years ago and since her departure not a single thing changed apart from some banks lying about the financial state of Greece and a flood of other countries so they could get into the club.

You cannot build an organisation that always expects more in an environment with finite resources. At some point that bubble must burst and then a new leaner thing takes its natural place over the corpse of the old dinosaur until the cycle repeats.

Regardless of the pain the EU must perish so that the Millennials can remake something new that is less based on baby boomer greed. With this in mind I believe the next big thing will be something like government as a platform or some of the other cross country initiatives that are based on citizen needs not diplomatic lifestyles...

There's some nuance in their that's worth exploring for the sake of balance. Broadly, the accounts are fair and accurate but they reveal material errors in payments.

http://fullfact.org/media/uploads/Audit%20Historical%20Opinions%20Update.JPG

http://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

BlasterBates
5th July 2017, 10:23
That is a very narrow way of looking at it. The inability of Southern European economies and of Ireland to devalue currency or to set interest rates has caused massive hardship and continues to do so. Of course, that doesn't mean that Brexit is a good idea.

There was also pretty similar hardship in Iceland and Romania and they weren't in the Euro. Having your savings wiped out as they did in Iceland is not good. The recession in Romania was brutal, and they had to be bailed out by the IMF. The Romanian interest rates had to be jacked up but their currency never appreciated gain.

The problems were caused by debt and one can have debates as to whether they would be better inside or outside the Euro but to attribute the hardship simply to the Euro is incorrect. Outside the Euro the Greeks would have defaulted completely which I suspect would have been a far worse situation than they are currently.

AtW
5th July 2017, 10:26
Has UK Govt got audited accounts?

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 10:33
There was also pretty similar hardship in Iceland and Romania and they weren't in the Euro. Having your savings wiped out as they did in Iceland is not good. The recession in Romania was brutal, and they had to be bailed out by the IMF. The Romanian interest rates had to be jacked up but their currency never appreciated gain.

The problems were caused by debt and one can have debates as to whether they would be better inside or outside the Euro but to attribute the hardship simply to the Euro is incorrect. Outside the Euro the Greeks would have defaulted completely which I suspect would have been a far worse situation than they are currently.

You are looking at the way economies react to the crisis. In the case of Ireland, there was a simultaneous house price bubble and debt bubble alongside a huge expansion in house building. The state had no ability to raise interest rates early to manage this. Not to say there weren't policy errors as well.

In the case of Spain etc., there was no way for the markets to devalue the currency to retain competitiveness against Northern Europe.

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 10:44
350 mln per week?

Open Europe and HoC Library estimate that it would cost -12% to -25% of what we currently pay for full membership if we use Norway's financial relationship as a guide. And that is after all the money that comes back.

https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/

So on that basis.

£14bn * 0.12 / 52 = £32.3mil a week better off with EEA using the more conservative figure.

BlasterBates
5th July 2017, 10:48
You are looking at the way economies react to the crisis. In the case of Ireland, there was a simultaneous house price bubble and debt bubble alongside a huge expansion in house building. The state had no ability to raise interest rates early to manage this. Not to say there weren't policy errors as well.

In the case of Spain etc., there was no way for the markets to devalue the currency to retain competitiveness against Northern Europe.

So explanations for Spain and Ireland, but what about Romania and other countries outside the Euro? Plenty of economic recessions and bursted debt bubbles out there, Japan in the 1990's South-East Asia a few years later and of course Argentina, not to mention Russia.

You say the Irish would have raised interest rates, but why would they?, the US and the UK didn't when house prices were in a bubble, that is a theoretical argument that they could have done, but central banks use the RPI to set interest rates not asset prices. In any case there are much better ways to deflate asset bubbles than interest rates, where Ireland did have control, such as rules on how much debt can be issued and how it is covered. Germany doesn't have a housing bubble because of the rules, i.e. taxation and debt issuance.

Countries can mismanage their economies outside or inside the Euro, you can´t stop them doing it. Argentina mismanaged their economy by raising huge Dollar and DM debts and then even after their currency devalued and they'd defaulted simply took the opportunity to run it even further into the ground.

AtW
5th July 2017, 10:51
Open Europe and HoC Library estimate that it would cost -12% to -25% of what we currently pay for full membership if we use Norway's financial relationship as a guide. And that is after all the money that comes back.

https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/

So on that basis.

£14bn * 0.12 / 52 = £32.3mil a week better off with EEA using the more conservative figure.

Norway got oil and gas which is critical for EU, they also got that deal long time ago

bobspud
5th July 2017, 11:15
Has UK Govt got audited accounts?

Yes and they are regularly kicked in the balls over some of the stupid things they have done. They even post all of the procurement data as well :)

Oh and when you don't like that you see can FOI the crap out of the department and cause significant stress to those involved as a result.

not to mention we will also have parliamentary enquiries as well.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 11:33
So explanations for Spain and Ireland, but what about Romania and other countries outside the Euro? Plenty of economic recessions and bursted debt bubbles out there, Japan in the 1990's South-East Asia a few years later and of course Argentina, not to mention Russia.

You say the Irish would have raised interest rates, but why would they?, the US and the UK didn't when house prices were in a bubble, that is a theoretical argument that they could have done, but central banks use the RPI to set interest rates not asset prices. In any case there are much better ways to deflate asset bubbles than interest rates, where Ireland did have control, such as rules on how much debt can be issued and how it is covered. Germany doesn't have a housing bubble because of the rules, i.e. taxation and debt issuance.

Countries can mismanage their economies outside or inside the Euro, you can´t stop them doing it. Argentina mismanaged their economy by raising huge Dollar and DM debts and then even after their currency devalued and they'd defaulted simply took the opportunity to run it even further into the ground.

The Irish house bubble / crash far exceeded the UK one, yet look at the interest rates that Ireland was stuck with because of Eurozone membership, in comparison to the UK response. It is madness for countries to give up their ability to adjust interest rates or manage money supply, or do you think they're not useful tools?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/Interest_rates_US_UK_Europe_Jan08.gif

And house prices:

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2013/03/uk-irish-house-prices.png

Mordac
5th July 2017, 11:38
The UK isn't in the Eurozone.

I think it may only have been a matter of time. Bliar would have taken us in to the Euro in a heartbeat, it is supposedly one of the things he and Brown argued about most vociferously. All we'd need is a future Europhile PM, or a weak one who could be forced to join, and there'd be sweet FA we'd have been able to do about it.

VectraMan
5th July 2017, 11:51
I think it may only have been a matter of time. Bliar would have taken us in to the Euro in a heartbeat, it is supposedly one of the things he and Brown argued about most vociferously. All we'd need is a future Europhile PM, or a weak one who could be forced to join, and there'd be sweet FA we'd have been able to do about it.

Blair could have taken us into the Euro, and didn't, so not sure what the point of that is.

I don't think anyone else will be in any hurry to join the Eurozone, at least not for a long time.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 11:53
I think it may only have been a matter of time. Bliar would have taken us in to the Euro in a heartbeat, it is supposedly one of the things he and Brown argued about most vociferously. All we'd need is a future Europhile PM, or a weak one who could be forced to join, and there'd be sweet FA we'd have been able to do about it.

Nonsense. Entry into the Eurozone would be subject to a decision by the UK parliament which has always been fully sovereign. You do talk some rot.

AtW
5th July 2017, 11:56
Yes

Link please to the latest version of audited (by whom?) accounts of UK Govt.

AtW
5th July 2017, 11:57
I think it may only have been a matter of time. Bliar would have taken us in to the Euro in a heartbeat, it is supposedly one of the things he and Brown argued about most vociferously. All we'd need is a future Europhile PM, or a weak one who could be forced to join, and there'd be sweet FA we'd have been able to do about it.

And Bliar should have done it, failure to do so precipitated current Brexit crisis.

BlasterBates
5th July 2017, 11:58
The Irish house bubble / crash far exceeded the UK one, yet look at the interest rates that Ireland was stuck with because of Eurozone membership, in comparison to the UK response. It is madness for countries to give up their ability to adjust interest rates or manage money supply, or do you think they're not useful tools?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/Interest_rates_US_UK_Europe_Jan08.gif

And house prices:

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2013/03/uk-irish-house-prices.png

The low interest rates provided no more than a need for the Irish to control prices themselves.

The Roots of Ireland’s Debt Crisis « Anglo: Not Our Debt (http://www.notourdebt.ie/the-roots-of-irelands-debt-crisis)


This reckless splurge was facilitated by liberalised lending practices across the EU and by lax cross-border regulation of the financial sector.


The Irish authorities also contributed to the property bubble with a range of tax incentives to property development and lax oversight of the financial sector – the Department of Finance, the Irish Central Bank and the Financial Regulator were all negligent in this regard.

and of course low interest rates although a contributory factor were not the cause. check out Iceland.

The Irish authorities had it in their power to control it. Germany was also exposed to "reckless splurge was facilitated by liberalised lending practices across the EU and by lax cross-border regulation of the financial sector" indeed was the UK who were not in the Euro.

Ireland are not exiting the Euro because they know they can avoid it in future with their own prudent economic policies. If the Euro was the cause of all these problems they would now be dismantling it or countries would be leaving it. The fact is the Euro provides every country in the Eurozone with longterm lower interest rates than they would have outside. To argue against not adopting the Euro is equivalent to arguing that a pay rise is bad because irresponsible employees will go and gamble it in the casino. A pay rise is not a bad thing, it is a good thing but it does need to be put in the hands of responsible people, and the answer is not to put the pay down again but for employees to learn to be more responsible. Countries who have adopted the Euro have the ability to grow faster than countries outside, in the same way that the US has. That is exactly why the Euro was adopted.

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 11:58
Norway got oil and gas which is critical for EU, they also got that deal long time ago

Well if we have nothing to offer the EU, maybe they are better off without us.

AtW
5th July 2017, 12:05
Well if we have nothing to offer the EU, maybe they are better off without us.

EU is indeed very much better off without UK, which caused constant problems due to centuries old policy of making sure France and Germany are not united.

Feck German cars - from now on Britons will buy only Rolls-Royces and Bentleys, hooray!!!

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 12:29
EU is indeed very much better off without UK, which caused constant problems due to centuries old policy of making sure France and Germany are not united.

Feck German cars - from now on Britons will buy only Rolls-Royces and Bentleys, hooray!!!

Good luck to them without us. Sounds like we are only holding them back.

I don't like to run with the historical allegory and brexit, it's all to obvious and misguided to do so, but I take a little exception to that point.

Comparatively recent history the UK helped stop the French and Germans killing each other! Lest we forget.

AtW
5th July 2017, 12:34
Comparatively recent history the UK helped stop the French and Germans killing each other! Lest we forget.

Would you like them to pay 350 mln euros per week for that?

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 12:41
Would you like them to pay 350 mln euros per week for that?

Financial inter-dependency is one way of keeping the countries of mainland Europe at peace. As long as the proceeds of growth are equitably shared. If not, it breeds a great deal of discontent.

Like any service I will review the cost - benefit before deciding if it represents good value. So let's wait and see what the deal looks like.

AtW
5th July 2017, 13:12
Financial inter-dependency is one way of keeping the countries of mainland Europe at peace. As long as the proceeds of growth are equitably shared. If not, it breeds a great deal of discontent. Like any service I will review the cost - benefit before deciding if it represents good value. So let's wait and see what the deal looks like.

It's not socialism mate, the proceeds of growth should be enjoyed by those who push that growth in the first place.

northernladyuk
5th July 2017, 13:14
It's not socialism mate, the proceeds of growth should be enjoyed by those who push that growth in the first place.

So you're saying you want the old man to jizz on your face?

vetran
5th July 2017, 13:21
So you're saying you want the old man dressed as a squirrel to jizz on your face?

FTFY

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 13:21
It's not socialism mate, the proceeds of growth should be enjoyed by those who push that growth in the first place.

The proceeds of growth should be enjoyed by those who push that growth...

- Employees

- Managers

- Shareholders

- Government

Who pushes that growth?

Who generates the growth?

What share should they get of the growth?

This is what the current share of growth looks like:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_04/IMG_4413.JPG.7d3ef5c024ffc1db33324b14de85268e.JPG

http://www.superyachtfan.com/lionheart.jpg

https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/79540000/gif/_79540702_uk_food_bank_use_624.gif

sal
5th July 2017, 13:24
Financial inter-dependency is one way of keeping the countries of mainland Europe at peace. As long as the proceeds of growth are equitably shared. If not, it breeds a great deal of discontent.

Like any service I will review the cost - benefit before deciding if it represents good value. So let's wait and see what the deal looks like.

Did you review the cost-benefit of Brexit before you voted? Care to share some numbers, no one in the government seems to be able to provide any.

PurpleGorilla
5th July 2017, 13:26
Did you review the cost-benefit of Brexit before you voted? Care to share some numbers, no one in the government seems to be able to provide any.

No need - I read it on a red bus [emoji12]

BlasterBates
5th July 2017, 13:29
interesting:

BREXIT RAID: France to reveal massive tax cuts in bid to POACH British businesses | UK | News | Express.co.uk (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/824998/BREXIT-France-reveal-massive-tax-cuts-POACH-British-businesses-London-Paris-Frankfurt)