PDA

View Full Version : Tory Brexit DOOM™: UK economy 4.8 per cent smaller



AtW
13th July 2017, 20:44
Brexit could cost UK Treasury tens of billions in lost tax revenue, says Office for Budget Responsibility

The Treasury's official watchdog has highlighted the significant risk posed by Brexit to the UK's public finances in a new report.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, in its Fiscal Risk Report published on Thursday, said that a possible Brexit “divorce bill", which some have suggested could be up to €100bn (£88bn), would only be a “one-off hit” to the Exchequer and that the far bigger risk related to the damage that leaving the EU could do to the UK’s long-term growth rate.

It said that if Brexit ended up reducing the UK’s annual trend productivity growth rate – the amount the UK produces per hour of labour – by just 0.1 per cent over 50 years, the economy would be 4.8 per cent smaller than otherwise.

That would be equivalent to a cost in lost GDP of almost £100bn in today's money – which would translate into a £36bn hit to tax revenues.

Theresa May’s Government has not commissioned an official report on the long-term economic impact of Brexit, but before last June's referendum the Treasury produced an analysis which argued that leaving the EU would impact negatively on the UK’s productivity growth by reducing EU trade and curbing foreign investment in the UK. Both are seen as having an outsized impact on productivity.

Brexit could cost UK Treasury tens of billions in lost tax revenue, says Office for Budget Responsibility | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-lost-tax-revenue-treasury-productivity-growth-rate-obr-office-budget-a7838891.html)

Nice, very nice - doing Brexit without getting report on long-term economic impact, I guess they already know what it will be.

Troll
13th July 2017, 21:03
Lots of "could be" in that article

Please report back with actuals

Paddy
13th July 2017, 21:08
Lots of "could be" in that article

Please report back with actuals

Can you name lots of "could be" positives about Brexit? Even the government has given up on the positives.

AtW
13th July 2017, 21:09
Lots of "could be" in that article

Please report back with actuals

We'll get actuals in a few years. Every heard of planning ahead on what could or even likely to happen?

vetran
13th July 2017, 21:11
Can you name lots of "could be" positives about Brexit? Even the government has given up on the positives.

We can ban Scooter & Paddy at the border without the ECH over ruling us.

sorted easily worth 4.8%

xoggoth
13th July 2017, 21:13
Every heard of planning ahead on what could or even likely to happen?

Like large numbers of the Albanian or Kosovan Mafia adding to our crime if they are let into the EU?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/mar/13/balkans
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/sep/07/nickhopkins
http://www.deadlinenews.co.uk/2012/01/15/albanian-crime-gangs-top-list-of-most-feared-foreign-gangsters/

AtW
13th July 2017, 21:26
Like large numbers of the Albanian or Kosovan Mafia adding to our crime if they are let into the EU?

So they will be quacking in their boots after Brexit when Britain will insist on visas? Poor sods, that really blocks them from Eldorado. :laugh

xoggoth
13th July 2017, 21:30
Serbia is on the accession list too:



As more alcohol is consumed, the chances of an intoxicated aggressor targeting victims simply because they are foreigners increases. These incidents often escalate without warning. A number of these establishments are owned by Balkan organized crime elements and serve as social clubs and bases of operation for criminal gang members who carry out the day-to-day criminal activities of their respective clans.

Serbia has a large contingent of extreme sport clubs that support professional sports teams. Members of teams’ fan groups are often between the ages of 15-25 and are commonly referred to locally as “football hooligans.” A number of fan clubs have very strong ties to criminal, right-wing, and ultra-nationalist organizations.

https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=13788

Do they look like they will give us a less racist and tolerant society? Sooner see a big drop in our economy than have free movement with any of the accession countries.

AtW
13th July 2017, 21:31
Serbia is on the accession list too:

Soon Ukraine will join too. :happy

xoggoth
13th July 2017, 21:32
So they will be quacking in their boots after Brexit when Britain will insist on visas? Poor sods, that really blocks them from Eldorado

??? I used to have a high opinion of you but little you say makes any sense anymore. Look up reasoned argument in the dictionary. All you ever do these days is just quote stuff you've read then go into ArseGuru mode if anyone challenges it. Without the cretin stuff admittedly, give you credit for that.

AtW
13th July 2017, 21:44
Look up reasoned argument in the dictionary.

So, we are Brexiting because Albania, Kosovo and especially Serbia will join in the future and their hardcore criminals will threaten the very existance of Britain.

A very reasonable question - are you fooking nuts? :eyes

vetran
13th July 2017, 22:51
So, we are Brexiting because Albania, Kosovo and especially Serbia will join in the future and their hardcore criminals will threaten the very existance of Britain.

A very reasonable question - are you fooking nuts? :eyes

No but your squirrels are!

Paddy
14th July 2017, 15:43
Bye bye Easyjet...


EasyJet is to open a new European headquarters in Austria to enable it to continue to operate flights within the EU after Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/14/easyjet-austria-eu-flights-brexit

excon
15th July 2017, 06:02
Bye bye Easyjet...



https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/14/easyjet-austria-eu-flights-brexit

Is that the same Austria that just sent troops to the Tyrol to shore up it's border with Italy?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/04/austrian-troops-to-stop-migrants-crossing-border-with-italy

I understand the uncertainty of the Brexit outcome needs business decisions but they may be jumping out of the pan into a collapsing EU.

AtW
15th July 2017, 11:43
Is that the same Austria that just sent troops to the Tyrol to shore up it's border with Italy?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/04/austrian-troops-to-stop-migrants-crossing-border-with-italy

I understand the uncertainty of the Brexit outcome needs business decisions but they may be jumping out of the pan into a collapsing EU.

:rollin::rollin::rollin:

excon
15th July 2017, 12:14
:rollin::rollin::rollin:

Exaggeration? If you found Austria sending troops to police the border with Italy funny you will love this, from EU parliament president Antonio Tajani:

'Millions of Africans' will flood Europe unless it acts now, warns European chief, as Paris evacuates huge migrant camp (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/07/millions-africans-will-flood-europe-unless-acts-now-warns-european/)

In an interview with Il Messagero newspaper, Mr Tajani said there would be an exodus "of biblical proportions that would be impossible to stop if we don't confront the problem now".

Knowing the general levels of competence and the ability to reach agreement in the EU I would put the chances of them stopping this at close to zero.

AtW
15th July 2017, 12:19
They will take action needed - there is general consensus about immigration in EU, hardly collapsing situation, is it?

I am more worried about collapsing British public services

excon
15th July 2017, 12:27
They will take action needed - there is general consensus about immigration in EU, hardly collapsing situation, is it?

I am more worried about collapsing British public services

The only action they've taken is in creating a migrant quota and threatening member states with legal action and expulsion when they refused:

Poland's Prime Minister says country will accept no refugees as EU threatens legal action over quotas | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/poland-no-refugees-eu-legal-action-infringement-quotas-resettlement-beata-szydlo-commission-a7741236.html)
Migrant crisis: Opponents furious over new EU quotas - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34331126)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/13/expel-hungary-from-eu-for-hostility-to-refugees-says-luxembourg

This is clearly tearing the EU apart.

AtW
15th July 2017, 12:31
If it's true then you should be shit scared because EU is UKs main export market

BlasterBates
17th July 2017, 10:49
Warning on food security (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/uk-sleepwalking-into-food-insecurity-after-brexit-academics-say)