Whats the Odds?

[pauly]

Had this debate with a friend....

Supposing agency selects 1 CV from 100 job board responses - thus its 1 in a 100 to get a CV submitted through an agency to a hiring manager.

The hiring manager gets 10 agencies to send 1 CV each and offers one candidate - thus its 1 in 10 to then get the offer.

Are the total odds of getting the offer 1:1000 or 1:110?

[northernladuk]

Ridiculous way to look at it. You are selling skills. If you have the skills you get put forward, if you don't, you don't.

[northernladuk]

If you are talking just about the maths and the context is irrelevant then...

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/prob...dependent.html

[pauly]

Ridiculous way to look at it. You are selling skills. If you have the skills you get put forward, if you don't, you don't.

**** all to do with odds. Daftest thing I've read in a long time.

Ignoring the recruitment realities for a wee moment - what's the total the odds of a 1:100 and then connected 1:10 event occurring. Just interested in the maths of it.

[northernladuk]

From the link then.

Scroll down to 'Another example'

You've heard about something called Google right?

[Bee]

Ridiculous way to look at it. You are selling skills. If you have the skills you get put forward, if you don't, you don't.

You didn't realize that this is an exercise.
It's better to ask your parrot.

[MrMarkyMark]

Had this debate with a friend....

Supposing agency selects 1 CV from 100 job board responses - thus its 1 in a 100 to get a CV submitted through an agency to a hiring manager.

The hiring manager gets 10 agencies to send 1 CV each and offers one candidate - thus its 1 in 10 to then get the offer.

Are the total odds of getting the offer 1:1000 or 1:110?

I can assure you it doesn't work like that if you are shopping for the truly skilled.

You have a good relationship with a very senior agent on the PSL.
He sends you a number of CVs on the QT.

Meanwhile you bin 90% of the CVs that come via other agents, as well as a few from the senior agent.
These are the chancers, time wasters, downright bloody liars and people with 4 months on their visa, out of the equation.
The senior agent steers the right, previously selected, people through the internal HR.

You interview the few best ones, even though "officially" you have only seen a few CVs.

That's how I select any additional people, if someone already very well known to me is not available.

[northernladuk]

You didn't realize that this is an exercise.
It's better to ask your parrot.

As usual, even though the above might be true I was still more use than you.

[pauly]

I can assure you it doesn't work like that if you are shopping for the truly skilled.

You have a good relationship with a very senior agent on the PSL.
He sends you a number of CVs on the QT.

Meanwhile you bin 90% of the CVs that come via other agents, as well as a few from the senior agent.
These are the chancers, time wasters, downright bloody liars and people with 4 months on their visa, out of the equation.
The senior agent steers the right, previously selected, people through the internal HR.

You interview the few best ones, even though "officially" you have only seen a few CVs.

That's how I select any additional people, if someone already very well known to me is not available.

I am not doubting your true experience and appreciate the insights.

However, looking through the "candidate lense" - the candidate isn't going to know who the senior agents are or have knowledge of the agency-to-HM relationship - all PSL agents tell candidates they are the Clientco's drinking best buddies. Also bearing in mind the economic stagnation, the resulting commoditization of the workforce which creates equally competent applicants to compete for limited roles - then it will be more likely for recruitment to be trend towards simplistic supply and demand models.

Thus, from a maths perspective, the chances of being offered for one position through a typical recruitment funnel that attracts circa 200 applicants, permits 2 applicants to be submitted per agency and has 10 PSL agencies is - 1000:1?

[Cirrus]

Are the total odds of getting the offer 1:1000 or 1:110?

For me, over the last 17 years, it has been a median of 1:100