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View Full Version : In case you missed it, Hammond has caved in. Hard Brexit it is.



sasguru
14th August 2017, 11:45
Philip Hammond has 'come to heel' over Brexit as Theresa May returns, say anti-EU Conservatives | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/philip-hammond-brexiteer-trade-agenda-eu-liam-fox-secretary-conservatives-tory-theresa-may-a7891766.html)

It's going to be entertaining for those of us who don't have to bear the consequences, but it's truly a sad outcome for the country as a whole.

sasguru
14th August 2017, 11:48
This is the Tories ignoring the outcome of the last election - they will be punished for it followed by a split that will make Labour look like a well-oiled machine.
And I fear, in the medium term, the real outcome will be a Corbyn win.

The_Equalizer
14th August 2017, 12:14
Hello, anyone, please reply...

BrilloPad
14th August 2017, 12:15
Hello, anyone, please reply...

This message is hidden because sasguru is on your ignore list. :yay:

Please refrain from quoting people on my ignore list. Cheers.

oscarose
14th August 2017, 12:18
Hello, anyone, please reply...

See tag... :confused:

original PM
14th August 2017, 12:20
Well it is kind of what the majority of the Uk want be they in or out...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voters-are-surprisingly-united-on-backing?utm_term=.sjolDKnGp#.nyAqEoWpV

The_Equalizer
14th August 2017, 12:24
Well it is kind of what the majority of the Uk want be they in or out...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voters-are-surprisingly-united-on-backing?utm_term=.sjolDKnGp#.nyAqEoWpV

Stop it, stop it. A large number of Remainers have become thick as mince too.

chopper
14th August 2017, 12:24
This is the Tories ignoring the outcome of the last election
The outcome being that they had a far higher share of the vote than they've had since Thatcher in the early 80s, which ordinarily would have delivered a crushing majority?

It turns out the referendum was a lose-lose scenario. If we voted to remain, that would have been incorrectly viewed as acceptance of the EU push towards further political integration and ultimately a single country called Europe. If we voted to leave, there was no 'stay in the EEA' option, and so the Tories are therefore pushing towards the only other option available - 'leave the EU and the EEA'.

What really grinds my gears about the ultra-Brexiters (and saying this as someone who voted to leave) is their whole 'cake and eat it' attitude. The fact is, they want WTO rules and the WTO rules are that the EU cannot treat the UK differently than any other country it deals with on a WTO basis. So it wont be the EU saying "no, you can't sell your food to us, this is us being spiteful", it is Britain saying "we want to leave the EU, which will make us a non-EU country, and therefore we will be bound to the EU's rules on dealing with non-EU countries". By WTO rules, the EU is not allowed anything else without a comprehensive treaty.

The quicker the thick, pig headed, ultra ignorant ultra-Brexiters get this (and unfortunately the media who steered them down that path will not be correcting them any time soon) the better. I'm fairly sure all the politicians get this, and playing dumb on this keeps the morons on their side.

Three options only:

Remain in the EU
Leave the EU, join EFTA and remain in the EEA. We continue playing football.
Leave the EU, leave the EEA. And that means Britain decided it wasn't playing any more, so the EU is taking its ball home.

OwlHoot
14th August 2017, 12:27
Please refrain from quoting people on my ignore list. Cheers.

Oh come on, you can't have assguru on your ignore list. You're missing some (unintentional) comedy gold with practically every one of his posts. :laugh

The_Equalizer
14th August 2017, 12:30
What really grinds my gears about the ultra-Brexiters (and saying this as someone who voted to leave) is their whole 'cake and eat it' attitude. The fact is, they want WTO rules and the WTO rules are that the EU cannot treat the UK differently than any other country it deals with on a WTO basis. So it wont be the EU saying "no, you can't sell your food to us, this is us being spiteful", it is Britain saying "we want to leave the EU, which will make us a non-EU country, and therefore we will be bound to the EU's rules on dealing with non-EU countries". By WTO rules, the EU is not allowed anything else without a comprehensive treaty.

Doesn't this sum up the problem with the lumbering beast that is the EU. It makes the rules so it can change the rules, but it seems hell bent on sticking to certain ideological principles despite disastrous consequences.

Anyway, this thread was far more fun when people weren't being serious.

PurpleGorilla
14th August 2017, 12:53
The outcome being that they had a far higher share of the vote than they've had since Thatcher in the early 80s, which ordinarily would have delivered a crushing majority?

It turns out the referendum was a lose-lose scenario. If we voted to remain, that would have been incorrectly viewed as acceptance of the EU push towards further political integration and ultimately a single country called Europe. If we voted to leave, there was no 'stay in the EEA' option, and so the Tories are therefore pushing towards the only other option available - 'leave the EU and the EEA'.

What really grinds my gears about the ultra-Brexiters (and saying this as someone who voted to leave) is their whole 'cake and eat it' attitude. The fact is, they want WTO rules and the WTO rules are that the EU cannot treat the UK differently than any other country it deals with on a WTO basis. So it wont be the EU saying "no, you can't sell your food to us, this is us being spiteful", it is Britain saying "we want to leave the EU, which will make us a non-EU country, and therefore we will be bound to the EU's rules on dealing with non-EU countries". By WTO rules, the EU is not allowed anything else without a comprehensive treaty.

The quicker the thick, pig headed, ultra ignorant ultra-Brexiters get this (and unfortunately the media who steered them down that path will not be correcting them any time soon) the better. I'm fairly sure all the politicians get this, and playing dumb on this keeps the morons on their side.

Three options only:

Remain in the EU
Leave the EU, join EFTA and remain in the EEA. We continue playing football.
Leave the EU, leave the EEA. And that means Britain decided it wasn't playing any more, so the EU is taking its ball home.

Which one do you think is most likely?

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 12:57
Remember those innocent days when even the hardcore Brexiteers had moments of lucidity?


Only a madman would actually leave the Market
Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer


Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market
Daniel Hannan MEP

sasguru
14th August 2017, 13:00
Three options only:

[1] Remain in the EU
[2] Leave the EU, join EFTA and remain in the EEA. We continue playing football.
[3] Leave the EU, leave the EEA. And that means Britain decided it wasn't playing any more, so the EU is taking its ball home.


Which one do you think is most likely?

Prior to Sunday's joint article by Hammond and Fox in the Telegraph, I thought it was (2) on the list, now it looks certain to be (3).

Mainly I think to keep the Tories united i.e. party above country.

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 13:08
Prior to Sunday's joint article by Hammond and Fox in the Telegraph, I thought it was (2) on the list, now it looks certain to be (3).

Mainly I think to keep the Tories united i.e. party above country.

It also gives a good opportunity for the financial class (e.g. Rees-Mogg) to profit from the chaos, and then the UK can rebuild around a low wage, low rights, low tax, poor public service model. Corbyn will be looking particularly silly at that point.

sasguru
14th August 2017, 13:14
It also gives a good opportunity for the financial class (e.g. Rees-Mogg) to profit from the chaos, and then the UK can rebuild around a low wage, low rights, low tax, poor public service model. Corbyn will be looking particularly silly at that point.

Brexit, in the bigger picture, is one elite replacing another, using the many useful idiots in this country to further their own aims.
Sadly I think the new elite will prove to be more nefarious and rapacious than the old when it comes to exploiting the working class.

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 13:20
Brexit, in the bigger picture, is one elite replacing another, using the many useful idiots in this country to further their own aims.
Sadly I think the new elite will prove to be more nefarious and rapacious than the old when it comes to exploting the working class.

Yes, the contemporary Euro-élite is much less rapacious than the equivalent Anglo-élite (although the Troika does have its moments). Which was what Remain was always about for me - I have no special love for the EU as an institution, although I am internationalist in my sentiment and I value my EU citizenship (which I can retain).

Of course, I had no idea quite how spectacularly the UK would screw this up. I am starting to think that nobody, even maybe Farage, really expected Brexit, and they all much preferred their virtue-signalling victim status within the EU. A bit like how the Labour left is always more comfortable in opposition.

PurpleGorilla
14th August 2017, 13:29
Prior to Sunday's joint article by Hammond and Fox in the Telegraph, I thought it was (2) on the list, now it looks certain to be (3).

Mainly I think to keep the Tories united i.e. party above country.

Interesting. I still think the likelihood is in this order; most likely 2, then 1, and 3 a distant third.

sasguru
14th August 2017, 13:37
I am starting to think that nobody, even maybe Farage, really expected Brexit, and they all much preferred their virtue-signalling victim status within the EU. A bit like how the Labour left is always more comfortable in opposition.

You're starting to think this? :laugh:laugh
Did you see BoJo's and Gove's faces the morning after the referendum?
Like they'd swallowed a wasp. :D
Neither of them were/are stupid enough to think this was a good idea, but they're committed now and so have to double-down.
Liam Fox, on the other hand, really is stupid enough to believe that the UK's pie-in-the sky trade deals might compensate for EU trade.

BlasterBates
14th August 2017, 13:37
Interesting. I still think the likelihood is in this order; most likely 2, then 1, and 3 a distant third.

In the end you're probably right but it will be a long and winding road and there may well be some chaos before the UK actually gets there.

sasguru
14th August 2017, 13:38
Interesting. I still think the likelihood is in this order; most likely 2, then 1, and 3 a distant third.

You're assuming the Tory party can put sensible policy and country above party. They can't.

PurpleGorilla
14th August 2017, 13:40
You're assuming the Tory party can put sensible policy and country above party. They can't.

No, I'm not assuming anything. I think the EU will make 2 the offer and the HoP will vote for it en-masse. I think the cabinet is going to be sidestepped by the HoP.

BlasterBates
14th August 2017, 13:52
It looks to me that the Tory government won't survive beyond 2018. It will be brought crashing down with a no confidence vote. My prediction will be the early part of 2018, as MP's realise they have only 6 months to hack out a deal. There will be yet another GE.

:D

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 13:55
It looks to me that the Tory government won't survive beyond 2018. It will be brought crashing down with a no confidence vote. My prediction will be the early part of 2018, as MP's realise they have only 6 months to hack out a deal. There will be yet another GE.

:D

2018 is the favourite. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-next-general-election

PurpleGorilla
14th August 2017, 13:56
It looks to me that the Tory government won't survive beyond 2018. It will be brought crashing down with a no confidence vote. My prediction will be the early part of 2018, as MP's realise they have only 6 months to hack out a deal. There will be yet another GE.

:D

https://youtu.be/d3PKE8uTSp8

BrilloPad
14th August 2017, 14:35
It looks to me that the Tory government won't survive beyond 2018. It will be brought crashing down with a no confidence vote. My prediction will be the early part of 2018, as MP's realise they have only 6 months to hack out a deal. There will be yet another GE.

:D

Can't TM just bung the DUP another few billion to keep her afloat?

BlasterBates
14th August 2017, 16:52
EU-UK trade negotiations to take 10 years (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/840821/eu-brexit-news-talks-10-years-decade-david-davis-european-union)

It's going to be one hell of a transition.

:laugh

PurpleGorilla
14th August 2017, 16:59
EU-UK trade negotiations to take 10 years (http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/840821/eu-brexit-news-talks-10-years-decade-david-davis-european-union)

It's going to be one hell of a transition.

:laugh

All the more reason for option 2

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 17:04
All the more reason for option 2

[2] Leave the EU, join EFTA and remain in the EEA.


Do all EU states have to ratify this or just EFTA states?

original PM
14th August 2017, 17:40
It looks to me that the Tory government won't survive beyond 2018. It will be brought crashing down with a no confidence vote. My prediction will be the early part of 2018, as MP's realise they have only 6 months to hack out a deal. There will be yet another GE.

:D

Fook me and you want comrade Corbyn?

What could possibly go wrong?

I mean apart from everything!.

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 17:48
Fook me and you want comrade Corbyn?

What could possibly go wrong?

I mean apart from everything!.

You should've thought about that before.

chopper
14th August 2017, 19:38
[2] Leave the EU, join EFTA and remain in the EEA.


Do all EU states have to ratify this or just EFTA states?

We are already EEA members, so actually remaining in the EEA is trivial. As for (re)joining EFTA, I think that would need ratification - but only four countries to contend with. The dilemma is that the current total EFTA population is about 1/4 of the population of the UK. The GDP of the UK is several times larger than the GDP of the existing EFTA members combined (although the UK has the lowest GDP per capita). The UK's membership of EFTA would massively change its dynamic. Would we expect an equal say, or a greater say given our larger population and GDP and therefore what we bring to the table?

darmstadt
14th August 2017, 20:08
We are already EEA members, so actually remaining in the EEA is trivial. As for (re)joining EFTA, I think that would need ratification - but only four countries to contend with. The dilemma is that the current total EFTA population is about 1/4 of the population of the UK. The GDP of the UK is several times larger than the GDP of the existing EFTA members combined (although the UK has the lowest GDP per capita). The UK's membership of EFTA would massively change its dynamic. Would we expect an equal say, or a greater say given our larger population and GDP and therefore what we bring to the table?

The old EEA subject again. There's no real point in being in the EEA and not in the EU, the EEA agreement covers the adoption of EU legislation in the agreed policy areas including the four freedoms, but not areas including policies such as those relating to agriculture, social and employment law, justice and home affairs.

The EEA comes with being bound by the bulk of EU legislation, being part of the EEA does not enable non-EU members to vote when decisions are made and laws are passed about how the single market operates.
EEA membership comes with the right to sit on certain committees and comment on some areas of EU policy only - members have no formal say on what gets decided.

Also, the financial services sector could also be hampered by the lack of cohesion regarding regulation across the single market that sees members unable to sell their services across all single market members.

In fact, if the UK were do as the Norwegians do and participate through membership of the EEA, the UK will have to pay to access the single market by contributing to the EU through an EEA grant - and the cost is significant.
Indeed, despite not having a say in its legislation, the UK would still be one of the biggest funders of the EU.

Wouldn't really gain much...

northernladyuk
14th August 2017, 20:34
The old EEA subject again. There's no real point in being in the EEA and not in the EU, the EEA agreement covers the adoption of EU legislation in the agreed policy areas including the four freedoms, but not areas including policies such as those relating to agriculture, social and employment law, justice and home affairs.

The EEA comes with being bound by the bulk of EU legislation, being part of the EEA does not enable non-EU members to vote when decisions are made and laws are passed about how the single market operates.
EEA membership comes with the right to sit on certain committees and comment on some areas of EU policy only - members have no formal say on what gets decided.

Also, the financial services sector could also be hampered by the lack of cohesion regarding regulation across the single market that sees members unable to sell their services across all single market members.

In fact, if the UK were do as the Norwegians do and participate through membership of the EEA, the UK will have to pay to access the single market by contributing to the EU through an EEA grant - and the cost is significant.
Indeed, despite not having a say in its legislation, the UK would still be one of the biggest funders of the EU.

Wouldn't really gain much...

There is on point in leaving the EU. This is damage limitation. But I think UK is going to screw this up much more than that.

BlasterBates
15th August 2017, 18:12
Nigel Farage on LBC infuriated and claiming that the proposed transitional arrangement is the beginning of the great Brexit betrayal..

:D

SueEllen
15th August 2017, 18:29
Nigel Farage on LBC infuriated and claiming that the proposed transitional arrangement is the beginning of the great Brexit betrayal..

:D

How does he expect us to get out in 2 years?

northernladyuk
15th August 2017, 19:11
Nigel Farage on LBC infuriated and claiming that the proposed transitional arrangement is the beginning of the great Brexit betrayal..

:D

Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They’re rich. They’re happy. They’re self-governing.

Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

chopper
15th August 2017, 19:23
Nigel Farage on LBC infuriated and claiming that the proposed transitional arrangement is the beginning of the great Brexit betrayal..

:D

If we're out of the EU, but in a way that makes Farage mad, then that's a good thing.

northernladyuk
15th August 2017, 20:18
If we're out of the EU, but in a way that makes Farage mad, then that's a good thing.

He's threatened to put on a brown shirt and arm himself.