Nick Clegg: Second referendum needed as Brexit voters are dying off

[chopper]

Second Brexit referendum needed because Leave voters are dying off, Nick Clegg suggests

I can't fault his logic...

In 2016, 443525 people aged 65 and over died in the UK. This figure is more or less similar on a year by year basis.
Apparently 64% of people aged 65 and over voted Brexit. So 283856 fewer Brexit voters every year and 159669 fewer Remain voters.

I believe that every year, about 800,000 people turn 18 every year, and so become eligible to vote. About 71% of these vote Remain. So by that token, 568000 new Remain voters and 232000 new Leave voters.

The net being 408000 new Remain voters and 52000 fewer Leave voters, every year.

The 'Leave' campaign won by 1,269,501

So a little maths shows that 2.7 years after the original referendum, that the 1269501 majority would be completely wiped out. Coincidentally, that would be around March 2019.

Of course, this assumed 100% turnout, but I think if there was a second referendum then turnout would be higher than the first, on the basis that Brexiters would turn out in force to avoid overturning, and Remainers would turn out in force to get the overturn they have moaned about.

Add in a swing in the 'still alive' population from Leave to Remain, then it stands to logic that a second referendum, an Exit from Brexit referendum if you listen to Vinny C, held in early 2019, would result in a Remain:Leave vote of about 52:48. (Of course, Nigel would cry that this is unfinished business)

Is this the long game? Is Cleggy right?

[scooterscot]

The old start conflicts, the young are always the first to be injured in them.

Time this conflict of interest was finally put to rest and scrapped. Preferably along with the Tory party.

[BlasterBates]

If Brexit goes pear shaped then there will be a referendum quicker than you can say "dog's breakfast". It is as simple as that.

[sasguru]

Bit disappointed we didn't get a hard Brexit TBH. May still happen.

[Mordac]

Second Brexit referendum needed because Leave voters are dying off, Nick Clegg suggests

I can't fault his logic...

In 2016, 443525 people aged 65 and over died in the UK. This figure is more or less similar on a year by year basis.
Apparently 64% of people aged 65 and over voted Brexit. So 283856 fewer Brexit voters every year and 159669 fewer Remain voters.

I believe that every year, about 800,000 people turn 18 every year, and so become eligible to vote. About 71% of these vote Remain. So by that token, 568000 new Remain voters and 232000 new Leave voters.

The net being 408000 new Remain voters and 52000 fewer Leave voters, every year.

The 'Leave' campaign won by 1,269,501

So a little maths shows that 2.7 years after the original referendum, that the 1269501 majority would be completely wiped out. Coincidentally, that would be around March 2019.

Of course, this assumed 100% turnout, but I think if there was a second referendum then turnout would be higher than the first, on the basis that Brexiters would turn out in force to avoid overturning, and Remainers would turn out in force to get the overturn they have moaned about.

Add in a swing in the 'still alive' population from Leave to Remain, then it stands to logic that a second referendum, an Exit from Brexit referendum if you listen to Vinny C, held in early 2019, would result in a Remain:Leave vote of about 52:48. (Of course, Nigel would cry that this is unfinished business)

Is this the long game? Is Cleggy right?

You're assuming of course, that all young voters are stupid enough to blindly sign up to Juncker's vision of a single European state, with himself as Emperor for Life, and don't have the basic intelligence to spot the catch. In which case, you're probably right...

[BlasterBates]

Bit disappointed we didn't get a hard Brexit TBH. May still happen.

or not.....

EU plan to embrace the UK and keep it in forever

[GJABS]

Meanwhile the 50 million people or so who can already vote, and who are not going to die in the next year, have each got a year older. And given that with age (often) comes wisdom, a few percent of them will wake up and change from "remain" to "leave" voters, thus restoring the 1.2 million (or whatever it is) leave majority

[Mordac]

or not.....

EU plan to embrace the UK and keep it in forever

The drive for integration among core EU member states is expected to accelerate drastically now the German elections are out of the way.

President Macron is due to give a speech tomorrow at the Sorbonne University in Paris detailing his new vision for the EU's future.

He will say that France and Germany must press ahead with creating a core political and economic union at the heart of the EU.

The French president is expected to put forward specific proposals in about 10 policy areas including strengthening the economic and monetary union, deepening European defence, re-enforcing EU migration policy and increasing social and fiscal convergence in the bloc.

That's actually very helpful indeed. If the British people needed any reminder as to why we voted out of this race to shoving democracy down the toilet, a reminder duly appears. Even Corbyn will be pissing himself reading this.

Edit: Nick Clegg had to go and look up "democracy". Short answer, Nick: it's the reason you're an insignificant former MP these days.

[NotAllThere]

You're assuming of course, that all young voters are stupid enough to blindly sign up to Juncker's vision of a single European state, with himself as Emperor for Life, and don't have the basic intelligence to spot the catch.

Nurse! Mordac needs his meds again.

[barrydidit]

I can't fault his logic...

Is Cleggy right?

I used to watch the Tory conference on telly when I was a kid and think "these guys are all ancient, Labour are bound to win once they're all dead". By the time I got to uni I'd spotted the flaw in that logic...

Meanwhile the 50 million people or so who can already vote, and who are not going to die in the next year, have each got a year older. And given that with age (often) comes wisdom, a few percent of them will wake up and change from "remain" to "leave" voters, thus restoring the 1.2 million (or whatever it is) leave majority

..which is this. The Tory conference starts next week I think, and I bet if you were to tune into it it'll be full of old farts snoozing and harumphing their way through proceedings, same as ever.