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AtW
7th October 2017, 23:12
Empress Theresa May has decided to commit billions of pounds on preparing Britain to leave the European Union without a deal in a bid to save her premiership.

Tories at war as Theresa May plans for no EU deal - but rebels warn she must make progress by Christmas (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/07/tories-war-theresa-may-plans-no-eu-deal-rebels-warn-must-make/)

Strategy Level 80 - instead of saving the country she is thinking of a way to save her own job!!! :mad

Platypus
8th October 2017, 08:30
No pain no gain.

scooterscot
8th October 2017, 09:41
Did you see John Major coming on the tube talking about the selfish backbenchers not supporting her, and the danger to the divided party? Talking like a statesman and yet not not one mention of all the people caught in the crossfire of Tory policy these past 10 years. Stratospheric arrogance. The country continues to be controlled by a self-interest government.

Corbyn can't get in soon enough.

Hobosapien
8th October 2017, 10:30
..The country continues to be controlled by a self-interest government.

Corbyn can't get in soon enough.

:rollin:

The Corbyn who refused to stand down and survived by the union support against his own party's wishes.

Yep a real change that would be.

Sack the lot of them and put some AI in charge, got to be better than career politicians with no real world experience. I think it was Buck Rogers in the 25th Century TV series/movie that had a government of AI units, though I was distracted entirely by Erin Gray in those skin tight outfits she always wore.

NotAllThere
8th October 2017, 13:37
:rollin:

The Corbyn who refused to stand down and survived by the union supportIt'd be great if he became PM and did the same thing. I wonder where he'd put the gulags?

AtW
8th October 2017, 13:42
It'd be great if he became PM and did the same thing. I wonder where he'd put the gulags?

Not in the South-East - land too expensive...

northernladyuk
8th October 2017, 14:29
No pain no gain.

The bigger they are the harder they fall.

jamesbrown
8th October 2017, 14:43
The bigger they are the harder they fall.

Unless you're a big roly-poly pudding, like MF, and then you just bounce and maunder around like any other oblate spheroid.

bobspud
8th October 2017, 14:47
**** it. The only thing we need now is May gone and someone to go and terminate the Brexit negotiations and enforce WTO rules. Once that is done and we are out we can go and sort out the mess from the outside when it becomes apparent that there is no way back in without a referendum and a new deal. Right now the EU don't care because they don't think we have the guts to do the worst. Fact is that we don't and our leaders are gutless and actually want the opposite of what they are telling us.

BrilloPad
8th October 2017, 19:16
EU negotiators are totally mad. Even Denmark says they are playing games. Preparing for a hard Brexit is the only way they might see sense.

AtW
8th October 2017, 22:15
EU negotiators are totally mad. Even Denmark says they are playing games. Preparing for a hard Brexit is the only way they might see sense.

OMFG, negotiators are playing games, OMFG, can't they just put all cards on the table so that everybody see it's Flash Royal???

They are toying with Britain like cat with mouse :frown

WTFH
9th October 2017, 07:29
EU negotiators are totally mad. Even Denmark says they are playing games. Preparing for a hard Brexit is the only way they might see sense.

Well, isn’t a hard Brexit what was promised from the start?

Break all ties.
Take back sovereign control (of the things that we had sovereign control over anyway, but that’s neither here nor there).
All that stuff, which was the reason for voting to leave the EU in the first place.

Now we’re being told to prepare for that to happen, and it’s the EU’s fault.
You voted for it, you can’t blame the EU if you end up getting what you voted for (even though that is the MO of many Brexit supporters on here)

WTFH
9th October 2017, 07:49
Myth busters: http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

BrilloPad
9th October 2017, 07:55
Well, isn’t a hard Brexit what was promised from the start?

Break all ties.
Take back sovereign control (of the things that we had sovereign control over anyway, but that’s neither here nor there).
All that stuff, which was the reason for voting to leave the EU in the first place.

Now we’re being told to prepare for that to happen, and it’s the EU’s fault.
You voted for it, you can’t blame the EU if you end up getting what you voted for (even though that is the MO of many Brexit supporters on here)

Please don't let assguru into your account again.

The UK is expected to do as the EU says when it says it. As they are a fascist, dictatorial organization.

The UK is prepared to enter into sensible discussions. The EU only wants to make the UK suffer.

The biggest remain reason given was the issue of separating the UK from the EU. It always was going to be tough.

If you can't think straight, there are lots of gel wrappers outside your house that need cleaning up.

My race code was 22221. You missed me.....

northernladyuk
9th October 2017, 08:06
Please don't let assguru into your account again.

The UK is expected to do as the EU says when it says it. As they are a fascist, dictatorial organization.

The UK is prepared to enter into sensible discussions. The EU only wants to make the UK suffer.


There's been a nasty outbreak of stupid white male persecution complex this morning. It's not healthy, brillo.

original PM
9th October 2017, 09:37
There's been a nasty outbreak of stupid white male persecution complex this morning. It's not healthy, brillo.

Shocking that really...

northernladyuk
9th October 2017, 09:38
Shocking that really...

Can't say I'm at all surprised, given the levels of inadequacy displayed by you and your fellow travellers.

original PM
9th October 2017, 09:39
Can't say I'm at all surprised, given the levels of inadequacy displayed by you and your fellow travellers.

How rude!

northernladyuk
9th October 2017, 09:43
How rude!

Uh oh. oPM's mum has finally confiscated his CUK account. Can't work out whether that is a good or bad thing.

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 11:15
Brexit news: EU better off without UK taunts German Finance Minister | UK | News | Express.co.uk (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/864078/brexit-latest-news-eu-better-off-without-uk-Wolfgang-Schauble)

northernladyuk
9th October 2017, 11:55
Brexit news: EU better off without UK taunts German Finance Minister | UK | News | Express.co.uk (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/864078/brexit-latest-news-eu-better-off-without-uk-Wolfgang-Schauble)

I hereby declare a jambargo. Let them eat their filthy continental preserves.

original PM
9th October 2017, 12:48
Brexit news: EU better off without UK taunts German Finance Minister | UK | News | Express.co.uk (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/864078/brexit-latest-news-eu-better-off-without-uk-Wolfgang-Schauble)

You'd think they would just get something sorted and let us go then...

Strange how they are not

And by them I mean the EU and Germany as they seem to be pretty much the same things.

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 12:52
You'd think they would just get something sorted and let us go then...

Strange how they are not

And by them I mean the EU and Germany as they seem to be pretty much the same things.

They have, the UK needs to settle the bill and then they can go.

Just write a cheque for 100 billion.

You be amazed about how most of Europe couldn't give a sh*t about Brexit. No-one is forcing the UK to come to Brussels; they could simply stay in the UK and wait for April 2019.

NotAllThere
9th October 2017, 13:05
...
Now we’re being told to prepare for that to happen, and it’s the EU’s fault.That seems to be the Brexit understanding. If it's not all champagne and flowers, it's because
The EU only wants to make the UK suffer.It's great really, because when the UK goes down the pan, the Brexiters relieve themselves of all guilt by carrying on as they always have done. :freaky: :ohwell

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 13:23
That seems to be the Brexit understanding. If it's not all champagne and flowers, it's becauseIt's great really, because when the UK goes down the pan, the Brexiters relieve themselves of all guilt by carrying on as they always have done. :freaky: :ohwell

I was listening to LBC this morning and a some European politician or commentator they interviewed made a good point. If the UK gets a deal based on equivalence i.e. recognising each others regulations then in effect the UK influences EU law because the EU can't change it without the UK's permission. Therefore it aint going to happen and the government's Brexit plan is dead in the water.

If you are going to have an integrated trade agreement you have to have common regulations and someone is going to have to decide on what they are.

jamesbrown
9th October 2017, 13:37
I was listening to LBC this morning and a some European politician or commentator they interviewed made a good point. If the UK gets a deal based on equivalence i.e. recognising each others regulations then in effect the UK influences EU law because the EU can't change it without the UK's permission. Therefore it aint going to happen and the government's Brexit plan is dead in the water.

If you are going to have an integrated trade agreement you have to have common regulations and someone is going to have to decide on what they are.

The commentator (and presumably you, by implication) appear not to understand that harmonization, equivalence and mutual recognition are all different things. Harmonization is a direction of travel towards similar methods and outcomes. Equivalence is about outcomes, not methods, and it is specifically about outcomes in the context of trade (not standards more generally). Mutual recognition further allows outcomes to deviate, providing that they are sufficiently similar to not provide one party with a regulatory advantage (in trade) over the other.

Crucially, mutual recognition is about recognition of the systems adopted by each partner to ensure standards. If one system identifies a product as passing, then is passes according to all other mutually recognized systems (there's plenty of ECJ case law on this). In other words, there is far more flexibility in product and services standards w/r to FTAs than you appear to understand, and the focus of these is avoiding a regulatory advantage to one partner at the expense of another (i.e. in trade terms). If the regulations do not impact trade, they are not material.

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 13:58
The commentator (and presumably you, by implication) appear not to understand that harmonization, equivalence and mutual recognition are all different things. Harmonization is a direction of travel towards similar methods and outcomes. Equivalence is about outcomes, not methods, and it is specifically about outcomes in the context of trade (not standards more generally). Mutual recognition further allows outcomes to deviate, providing that they are sufficiently similar to not provide one party with a regulatory advantage (in trade) over the other.

Crucially, mutual recognition is about recognition of the systems adopted by each partner to ensure standards. If one system identifies a product as passing, then is passes according to all other mutually recognized systems (there's plenty of ECJ case law on this). In other words, there is far more flexibility in product and services standards w/r to FTAs than you appear to understand, and the focus of these is avoiding a regulatory advantage to one partner at the expense of another (i.e. in trade terms). If the regulations do not impact trade, they are not material.

The EU doesn't have any trade deal which involve "harmonisation" or "equivalence". So I'm afraid you don't have any more of a clue about how it can work with a country outside the EU than the commentator does other than adopting the Norway/Switzeralnd model. The ECJ rules on internal market, but the UK doesn't want to be a part of it.

https://capx.co/the-canada-eu-trade-deal-is-no-model-for-brexit/

CETA is the most ambitious trade deal the EU has with any other country not subject to the ECJ.


there is no agreement on common standards or mutual recognition of standards in CETA, and the agreement makes a point of the fact that neither Canada nor the EU commit to such outcomes in the work of the Forum.

chopper
9th October 2017, 14:09
They have, the UK needs to settle the bill and then they can go.

Just write a cheque for 100 billion.

And on what basis do you think we owe them 100 billion?

Of course the EU would be better off without the UK, if we gave them 100 billion. We don't owe them that. And nobody on the EU or UK side has even said that we do.

In fact, if the UK walks away from negotiations, then that is pretty much as was expected. Seems pretty standard in large disputes really. Ultimately, 'no deal' means no money from the UK to the EU, so the EU wont let that happen.

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 14:54
And on what basis do you think we owe them 100 billion?

Of course the EU would be better off without the UK, if we gave them 100 billion. We don't owe them that. And nobody on the EU or UK side has even said that we do.

In fact, if the UK walks away from negotiations, then that is pretty much as was expected. Seems pretty standard in large disputes really. Ultimately, 'no deal' means no money from the UK to the EU, so the EU wont let that happen.

That's the point the UK doesn't want to pay anything, it has offered a paltry 20 billion which basically is nothing more than a fee to extend for two years, after that zilch. The EU will earn far more than 20 billion by having no deal and nicking all the lucrative investment bank tax revenues in perpetuity.

SueEllen
9th October 2017, 15:40
May speaking.

She is full of sh*t.

oh and the only way she hasn't explicitly excluded is Switzerland.

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 15:44
May speaking.

She is full of sh*t.

oh and the only way she hasn't explicitly excluded is Switzerland.

Indeed EU commissioners have pointed to Switzerland as the model of a possible "bespoke red white and blue" Brexit

:D

jamesbrown
9th October 2017, 17:45
The EU doesn't have any trade deal which involve "harmonisation" or "equivalence". So I'm afraid you don't have any more of a clue about how it can work with a country outside the EU than the commentator does other than adopting the Norway/Switzeralnd model. The ECJ rules on internal market, but the UK doesn't want to be a part of it.

https://capx.co/the-canada-eu-trade-deal-is-no-model-for-brexit/

CETA is the most ambitious trade deal the EU has with any other country not subject to the ECJ.

Your post was utterly confused on both the details (namely the differences between equivalence and mutual recognition) and on the implications (namely that the UK cannot, in principle, improve upon existing EU trade deals). The EU doesn't have any FTAs with ex-members of the EU :laugh Always happy to clear up your confusion. :D


So I'm afraid you don't have any more of a clue about how it can work with a country outside the EU than the commentator does other than adopting the Norway/Switzeralnd model.

That part isn't comprehensible English. :D

BlasterBates
9th October 2017, 21:19
Your post was utterly confused on both the details (namely the differences between equivalence and mutual recognition) and on the implications (namely that the UK cannot, in principle, improve upon existing EU trade deals). The EU doesn't have any FTAs with ex-members of the EU :laugh Always happy to clear up your confusion. :D



That part isn't comprehensible English. :D

You can't have equivalence and then either side start modifying its regulations without having to refer to the other side. Basically May admitted in parliament that Hard Brexit is dead in the water when she stated that CETA wasn't suitable. CETA is the only possibility of getting a "Hard Brexit".

This means the UK will be pushed into the EEA and will stay indefinitely, with the EU shoving laws and regulations down its throat. Remember David Davis said he wanted parallel talks and then caved in an hour into the negotiations. :D It will take a while longer but the UK will be caving into all sorts of other demands from the EU. On LBC Iain Dale was moaning today on his show that the EU always gets what it wants and the UK keeps caving in.

:D

jamesbrown
9th October 2017, 21:36
You can't have equivalence and then either side start modifying its regulations without having to refer to the other side. Basically May admitted in parliament that Hard Brexit is dead in the water when she stated that CETA wasn't suitable. CETA is the only possibility of getting a "Hard Brexit".

This means the UK will be pushed into the EEA and will stay indefinitely, with the EU shoving laws and regulations down its throat. Remember David Davis said he wanted parallel talks and then caved in an hour into the negotiations. :D It will take a while longer but the UK will be caving into all sorts of other demands from the EU. On LBC Iain Dale was moaning today on his show that the EU always gets what it wants and the UK keeps caving in.

:D

Again, I don't think you've understood the difference between equivalence and mutual recognition. The former does not admit different outcomes, but admits differences in methodology, the latter admits differences in both methodology and outcomes (within limits). The suitability of these two things depends very much on the applications considered (e.g. financial services, JIT supply chains, agriculture, food standards etc.). It's rather pointless to have a general conversation about appropriate mechanisms to secure (degrees of) barrier-free trade, but it's easier for you to talk in terms of the noddy book of free trade, because it suits your narrative that the EEA is where we're heading when clearly we aren't. We're either heading for an FTA from a starting point of regulatory equivalence and whose ultimate degree of convergence will vary between sectors (i.e. something in between EEA and CETA, whether you prefer to call it EEA- or CETA+) or we're heading for no deal at all. This has been obvious for months. I'd put the odds at around 50/50 for each outcome.

AtW
9th October 2017, 21:41
It will be "Hard Brexit", or what they now call "No Deal, which is better than bad deal"

Tory traitors want it to happen to make it unlikely quick return back to EU.

WTFH
9th October 2017, 21:55
It will be "Hard Brexit", or what they now call "No Deal, which is better than bad deal"

Tory traitors want it to happen to make it unlikely quick return back to EU.

Except a hard Brexit would make returning to the EU easier as there would be no deals to unpick or re-negotiate.

AtW
9th October 2017, 21:58
Except a hard Brexit would make returning to the EU easier as there would be no deals to unpick or re-negotiate.

There will be quick deal with USA, which will be quick, but truly aweful for Britain - it won't be possible to join EU with it.

After that Tory Scum will wash their hands and let Labour into the driving seat.

SueEllen
10th October 2017, 03:22
There will be quick deal with USA, which will be quick, but truly aweful for Britain - it won't be possible to join EU with it.

After that Tory Scum will wash their hands and let Labour into the driving seat.

Apparently Indonesia are making a fuss about the deal we are attempting to negotiate with the EU so it's either WTO rules or Switzerland. The EU isn't having it any other way.

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 07:20
Again, I don't think you've understood the difference between equivalence and mutual recognition. The former does not admit different outcomes, but admits differences in methodology, the latter admits differences in both methodology and outcomes (within limits). The suitability of these two things depends very much on the applications considered (e.g. financial services, JIT supply chains, agriculture, food standards etc.). It's rather pointless to have a general conversation about appropriate mechanisms to secure (degrees of) barrier-free trade, but it's easier for you to talk in terms of the noddy book of free trade, because it suits your narrative that the EEA is where we're heading when clearly we aren't. We're either heading for an FTA from a starting point of regulatory equivalence and whose ultimate degree of convergence will vary between sectors (i.e. something in between EEA and CETA, whether you prefer to call it EEA- or CETA+) or we're heading for no deal at all. This has been obvious for months. I'd put the odds at around 50/50 for each outcome.

Switzerland is the word you're looking for :D May sprinkled "Switzerland" all over her speech, even the registering of EU immigrants is copied from Switzerland.

Obviously Equivalence can be anything the two parties agree it to be, which is why it is possible to take a journey into fantasy land (cake having and eating etc) as to what it might mean. However on one limited case for example with the US exchanges, it means common regulation, i.e. the US and the EU have a agreed on a very limited amount of common regulation.

It is abundantly clear that the UK's FTA as with Switzerland will mean swallowing EU regulations. The US might be at eye level with the EU on that very limited agreement they have on clearing derivatives but the EU won't be allowing the UK to crawl all over their regulations any more than Switzerland can. The UK will also be paying money and accepting in all but name freedom of movement.

This will happen, it is a fact, and one only had to hear Jacob Rees Mogg sulking in the Commons to know this is where it is heading :D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 08:08
The UK will also be paying money and accepting in all but name freedom of movement.


Which is precisely why it won't be Switzerland (also rejected explicitly BTW) :D It will be Switzerland minus because, if HMG has been clear about anything, it's that the post-Brexit immigration system will not be consistent with full access to the SM. May has repeatedly offered that as a "lesson learned" from the referendum. The outlines of that system have already been leaked. They didn't need to do this; they could've gone the Swiss route, which Hannan and some other Leavers advocate.


Obviously Equivalence can be anything the two parties agree it to be

Only if you subscribe to the noddy book of free trade. An apple isn't the "same" as an orange :D We won't end up with the same degree of convergence in agriculture as financial services or pharmaceuticals, for example.

BrilloPad
10th October 2017, 08:10
Except a hard Brexit would make returning to the EU easier as there would be no deals to unpick or re-negotiate.

Once the UK leaves and makes a success of it there will be no EU left to return to.

WTFH
10th October 2017, 08:13
Once the UK leaves and makes a success of it there will be no EU left to return to.

You mean never?
Either we leave or we make a success of it.
To do both is highly unlikely in my lifetime.

...in fact to do either is looking slim in the next 4 years (certainly not by 25th June 2018 as originally promised)

BrilloPad
10th October 2017, 08:16
You mean never?
Either we leave or we make a success of it.
To do both is highly unlikely in my lifetime.

...in fact to do either is looking slim in the next 4 years (certainly not by 25th June 2018 as originally promised)

It is this sort of defeatist attitude that makes you an ideal mod.

History has taught us predictions(especially about the future) can be wrong.

You can only be certain of death, the sun rising and the game of "hide the ketchup bottle" at the mod Christmas party....

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 08:20
Which is precisely why it won't be Switzerland (also rejected explicitly BTW) :D It will be Switzerland minus because, if HMG has been clear about anything, it's that the post-Brexit immigration system will not be consistent with full access to the SM. May has repeatedly offered that as a "lesson learned" from the referendum. The outlines of that system have already been leaked. They didn't need to do this; they could've gone the Swiss route, which Hannan and some other Leavers advocate.



Only if you subscribe to the noddy book of free trade. An apple isn't the "same" as an orange :D We won't end up with the same degree of convergence in agriculture as financial services or pharmaceuticals, for example.

...and after all the bluster of not accepting the ECJ or freedom of movement after March 2019 what did May say yesterday in parliament.

:D

...did you see Jacob's face yesterday :D

This is the point, the government keeps doing U-turns.

It is abundantly clear that the UK will not extricate itself from the "transition deal" for many years, and when Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris have long gone, then an alternative government probably Labour will be signing the UK to a Swiss or EEA deal if not rejoining because everyone is fed up.

:D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 09:42
...and after all the bluster of not accepting the ECJ or freedom of movement after March 2019 what did May say yesterday in parliament.

:D

...did you see Jacob's face yesterday :D

This is the point, the government keeps doing U-turns.

It is abundantly clear that the UK will not extricate itself from the "transition deal" for many years, and when Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris have long gone, then an alternative government probably Labour will be signing the UK to a Swiss or EEA deal if not rejoining because everyone is fed up.

:D

Evidently, you're too emotionally attached to remaining in the EU to take a dispassionate view of what is actually happening. Mogg et al. will accept nothing short of complete detachment, and that was never going to happen. They don't want Switzerland minus. If you'd chosen to pay attention, the direction of travel has been clear from Lancaster House. An implementation period makes no sense unless it closely mirrors the status quo, and the EU aren't going to accept the status quo without the ECJ. The idea that businesses could make two sets of changes in as many years is patently absurd.

Either there will be no deal or, I dare say your worst nightmare, we reach a deal that looks substantively different than EU membership and we transition different parts according to the actual time taken, which will be less than two years for some aspects, potentially more for others. The outlines are emerging and you don't like them :D

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 10:19
Evidently, you're too emotionally attached to remaining in the EU to take a dispassionate view of what is actually happening. Mogg et al. will accept nothing short of complete detachment, and that was never going to happen. They don't want Switzerland minus. If you'd chosen to pay attention, the direction of travel has been clear from Lancaster House. An implementation period makes no sense unless it closely mirrors the status quo, and the EU aren't going to accept the status quo without the ECJ. The idea that businesses could make two sets of changes in as many years is patently absurd.

Either there will be no deal or, I dare say your worst nightmare, we reach a deal that looks substantively different than EU membership and we transition different parts according to the actual time taken, which will be less than two years for some aspects, potentially more for others. The outlines are emerging and you don't like them :D

It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/the-brexit-crowd-are-right-to-smell-a-rat/)

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

:D

SueEllen
10th October 2017, 10:35
It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/the-brexit-crowd-are-right-to-smell-a-rat/)

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

:D

Which is why May must not sack him until the deal is done.


Her legacy can be like Thatcher's to Heseltine. (Who incidentally hates him linky (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michael-heseltine-theresa-may-boris-johnson_uk_59da5f30e4b072637c44d3da) )

Bean
10th October 2017, 10:42
It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/the-brexit-crowd-are-right-to-smell-a-rat/)

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

:D

Think you're forgetting how much Lab want the public to vote on the final Brexit deal - so how they frogmarch the UK into a deal is less than clear.

Also, If there is any deal, then businesses are going to have to change - if Lab try to force the UK into EEA etc, then businesses will have to change again (this is also why big businesses will continue to work against Lab getting voted in)

Other than that, I agree with Jamesbrown, you're not looking objectively due to your own opinions, biases etc.

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 10:52
Think you're forgetting how much Lab want the public to vote on the final Brexit deal - so how they frogmarch the UK into a deal is less than clear.

Also, If there is any deal, then businesses are going to have to change - if Lab try to force the UK into EEA etc, then businesses will have to change again (this is also why big businesses will continue to work against Lab getting voted in)

Other than that, I agree with Jamesbrown, you're not looking objectively due to your own opinions, biases etc.

The transition deal is the EEA, in effect. That's why Farage and Rees-Mogg are up in arms. The transition period will go on for years. By the time Rees-Mogg decides he'd had enough there will be a GE anyway.

Interesting as Michael Heseltine has said, it is highly likely in the longterm that the UK will adopt the Euro.

:D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 11:08
It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/the-brexit-crowd-are-right-to-smell-a-rat/)

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

:D

Matthew Parris. :rollin: You may as well ask Nick Clegg. The ultra-remain journos and commentators have reinvigorated their ailing careers with the smell of rat droppings at every turn.

Look, a squirrel!

I predict a painful few years for the remain ultras :D

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 11:15
Matthew Parris. :rollin: You may as well ask Nick Clegg. The ultra-remain journos and commentators have reinvigorated their ailing careers with the smell of rat droppings at every turn.

Look, a squirrel!

I predict a painful few years for the remain ultras :D

Will this be as accurate as your prediction last year that there wouldn't be a transitional deal because the Brexiteers wouldn't accept it? :D

BrilloPad
10th October 2017, 11:21
Will this be as accurate as your prediction last year that there wouldn't be a transitional deal because the Brexiteers wouldn't accept it? :D

There will not be. Its a hard Brexit in 2019.

Bean
10th October 2017, 11:26
The transition deal is the EEA, in effect. That's why Farage and Rees-Mogg are up in arms. The transition period will go on for years. By the time Rees-Mogg decides he'd had enough there will be a GE anyway.

Interesting as Michael Heseltine has said, it is highly likely in the longterm that the UK will adopt the Euro.

:D

Oh? Please, furnish us with the details of this EEA-like transition deal (that is yet to be agreed), which if i'm not mistaken - the EU has effectively said we cannot move onto yet and therefore the specifics cannot yet be known to anyone?

Funny little crystal ball you've got there :D

As for MH - hasn't he been predicting that for years? The enraged remoaner that he is. Furious with the plebs for their democratic decision :D:D

WTFH
10th October 2017, 11:40
There will not be. Its a hard Brexit in 2019.

Why not just hard Brexit now, it’s clear the incompetents in charge have no ability to negotiate with the EU, so rather than wasting a few hundred million on pointless discussions and further uncertainty for actual businesses, reprogram Maybot to say “OK, we’re walking away now”.

Otherwise the country is pouring the money down the drain for further things like the Florence debacle.

BrilloPad
10th October 2017, 11:44
Why not just hard Brexit now, it’s clear the incompetents in charge have no ability to negotiate with the EU, so rather than wasting a few hundred million on pointless discussions and further uncertainty for actual businesses, reprogram Maybot to say “OK, we’re walking away now”.

Otherwise the country is pouring the money down the drain for further things like the Florence debacle.

Need time to prepare for it. And have to give 2 years notice to leave.

I agree about Florence though.

NotAllThere
10th October 2017, 11:54
Matthew Parris. :rollin: You may as well ask Nick Clegg. The ultra-remain journos and commentators have reinvigorated their ailing careers with the smell of rat droppings at every turn.

Look, a squirrel!

I predict a painful few years for the remain ultras :DUltra-remainer? What's that then? How can I tell if someone is just a remainer or an ultra-remainer?

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/b8/f0/ea/b8f0eab326d9f3c8db1d7707055098e0--childhood-toys-bubble-baths.jpg

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 12:21
Will this be as accurate as your prediction last year that there wouldn't be a transitional deal because the Brexiteers wouldn't accept it? :D

Don't make be trawl back through your appalling predictions in recent years. :laugh

I've always predicted either no deal or a deal that is substantially different than the EEA. The former is consistent with no transition. Soft Brexit is heading the same way as CretinWatcher and remain ultras who are, ironically, now indistinguishable from the most ardent kippers. Admittedly, the former prefer blue leotards and the EU flag. :D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 12:22
Ultra-remainer? What's that then? How can I tell if someone is just a remainer or an ultra-remainer?

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/b8/f0/ea/b8f0eab326d9f3c8db1d7707055098e0--childhood-toys-bubble-baths.jpg

A blue leotard. HTH.

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 12:26
Ultra-remainer? What's that then? How can I tell if someone is just a remainer or an ultra-remainer?

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/b8/f0/ea/b8f0eab326d9f3c8db1d7707055098e0--childhood-toys-bubble-baths.jpg

A Remainer or simply "Remoaner" is someone who sits under a table with a paper bag over their head and says "woe is me", which is where Brexiteers like to see them, whereas an "Ultra-Remoaner" is someone who simply doesn't believe the government will actually manage to get the UK out of the EU because it is such an impossibly difficult task.

:D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 12:49
A Remainer or simply "Remoaner" is someone who sits under a table with a paper bag over their head and says "woe is me", which is where Brexiteers like to see them, whereas an "Ultra-Remoaner" is someone who simply doesn't believe the government will actually manage to get the UK out of the EU because it is such an impossibly difficult task.

:D

Your forgot the leotard :D

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 13:14
Don't make be trawl back through your appalling predictions in recent years. :laugh

I've always predicted either no deal or a deal that is substantially different than the EEA. The former is consistent with no transition. Soft Brexit is heading the same way as CretinWatcher and remain ultras who are, ironically, now indistinguishable from the most ardent kippers. Admittedly, the former prefer blue leotards and the EU flag. :D

You said a transition deal where the things would remain as they are was not going to happen because you saw an interview with David Davies, ultra remainers are deluded in thinking that and then words to the effect of March 2019 is approaching "Tick tock".

The "Tick tock" now makes no sense as it is clear on March 2019 nothing changes. :D

The next step in the great Brexit betrayal is an extension of the 2 year transition. :D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 14:02
You said a transition deal where the things would remain as they are was not going to happen because you saw an interview with David Davies, ultra remainers are deluded in thinking that and then words to the effect of March 2019 is approaching "Tick tock".

The "Tick tock" now makes no sense as it is clear on March 2019 nothing changes. :D

The next step in the great Brexit betrayal is an extension of the 2 year transition. :D

You're clearly taking this well if you can recall specific phrases. Or perhaps you have the actual words in front of you and you're trying to be cute :D

Either way, prepare your leotard and codpiece. I sense a protest in your future. :D

Tick tock :D

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 14:08
You're clearly taking this well if you can recall specific phrases. Or perhaps you have the actual words in front of you and you're trying to be cute :D

Either way, prepare your leotard and codpiece. I sense a protest in your future. :D

Tick tock :D

I find it interesting that you think I will be "disappointed" if there is a Hard Brexit. If a hard Brexit as you think you're going to get would lead to UK economic success why would I be bothered ? Far from it, it doesn't bother me one way or the other. It isn't going to be a huge success though, it will simply be a massive f** up.

:D

sasguru
10th October 2017, 14:27
Don't make be trawl back through your appalling predictions in recent years. :laugh

I've always predicted either no deal or a deal that is substantially different than the EEA. The former is consistent with no transition. Soft Brexit is heading the same way as CretinWatcher and remain ultras who are, ironically, now indistinguishable from the most ardent kippers. Admittedly, the former prefer blue leotards and the EU flag. :D

Your predictions are no great cop either. Remember the result of the General Election? :laugh:laugh:laugh

darmstadt
10th October 2017, 15:33
Don't worry:

UK 'could join trade deal with US, Canada and Mexico' | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4966170/UK-join-trade-deal-Canada-Mexico.html)

Oh dear:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/22/trump-well-probably-end-up-terminating-nafta.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/10/justin-trudeau-donald-trump-nafta-washington

Personally I couldn't give a toss about brexit anymore but this just shows the incompetence of the people running the ngotiations from the UK side

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 15:46
I find it interesting that you think I will be "disappointed" if there is a Hard Brexit. If a hard Brexit as you think you're going to get would lead to UK economic success why would I be bothered ? Far from it, it doesn't bother me one way or the other. It isn't going to be a huge success though, it will simply be a massive f** up.

:D

What's a "Hard Brexit"?

For someone that isn't disappointed, you do an excellent impression of a malcontent :D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 15:46
Your predictions are no great cop either. Remember the result of the General Election? :laugh:laugh:laugh

:igmc:

(Or yours TBF. :laugh)

northernladyuk
10th October 2017, 16:17
Don't worry:

UK 'could join trade deal with US, Canada and Mexico' | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4966170/UK-join-trade-deal-Canada-Mexico.html)

Oh dear:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/22/trump-well-probably-end-up-terminating-nafta.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/10/justin-trudeau-donald-trump-nafta-washington

Personally I couldn't give a toss about brexit anymore but this just shows the incompetence of the people running the ngotiations from the UK side

But then the UK will need to join the Amerozone and set up the secret FEMA internment camps.

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/e21o_4RlLUw/hqdefault.jpg

northernladyuk
10th October 2017, 16:20
What's a "Hard Brexit"?


Where have you been?

BBC gives reasonable description:


There is no strict definition of either, and they sometimes mean different things to different people, but they generally refer to the closeness of the UK's relationship with the EU, post-Brexit.

So at one extreme, "hard" (or "clean") Brexit could involve quitting without a deal in place.

This would mean no compromise on issues like the free movement of people, leaving the EU single market and trading with the EU as if it were any other country outside Europe, based on World Trade Organization rules.

This would mean - at least in the short term before a trade deal was done - the UK and EU would probably apply tariffs and other trade restrictions on each other.

At the other end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit could involve keeping close ties with the EU, possibly through some form of membership of the European Union single market, in return for a degree of free movement.

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 16:31
What's a "Hard Brexit"?

For someone that isn't disappointed, you do an excellent impression of a malcontent :D

It is abundantly clear that the deal with Japan or Canada would be a deal equivalent to a "Hard Brexit". A deal similar to Switzerland is a "Soft Brexit".

May specifically said it wouldn't be EEA and it wouldn't be CETA. That means it will be Switzerland. oh yeah it isn't Switzerland it's special, just flannel; if it walks like Switzerland and it talks like Switzerland it might have a different name but it's still Switzerland.

The reason why she explicitly avoids using the terms Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit is because she is aiming for a Soft Brexit and that causes the Brexiteers to gnash their teeth, by removing the "prefix" she can let them wallow in their fantasies a while longer. Slogans such as "Brexit means Brexit", or "There's no such thing as a Soft Brexit, there is just Brexit" keeps all those Brexiteers off her back.


:D

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 16:50
Where have you been?


Oh dear. :laugh


and they sometimes mean different things to different people

jamesbrown
10th October 2017, 16:55
It is abundantly clear that the deal with Japan or Canada would be a deal equivalent to a "Hard Brexit". A deal similar to Switzerland is a "Soft Brexit".

May specifically said it wouldn't be EEA and it wouldn't be CETA. That means it will be Switzerland. oh yeah it isn't Switzerland it's special, just flannel; if it walks like Switzerland and it talks like Switzerland it might have a different name but it's still Switzerland.

The reason why she explicitly avoids using the terms Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit is because she is aiming for a Soft Brexit and that causes the Brexiteers to gnash their teeth, by removing the "prefix" she can let them wallow in their fantasies a while longer. Slogans such as "Brexit means Brexit", or "There's no such thing as a Soft Brexit, there is just Brexit" keeps all those Brexiteers off her back.


:D

Actually, she has explicitly said it won't be Switzerland either. Several times. Starting in her speech to the Tory conference last year. :D

It's either going to be somewhere in between Switzerland and CETA or a no-deal Brexit. Hard and soft have become pejorative terms. Hard = "Brexit" to leavers and "WWIII" to remainers. Soft = "remain" to leavers and "damage limitation" to remainers. Pointless terms.

BTW, you seem to be gnashing a lot.

Gnash, gnash. :D

SueEllen
10th October 2017, 17:11
Apparently we have called the talks off for tomorrow as we haven't got a negotiator. The EU aren't happy about our time wasting.

northernladyuk
10th October 2017, 17:17
Apparently we have called the talks off for tomorrow as we haven't got a negotiator. The EU aren't happy about our time wasting.

Screw them. The UK has the stronger hand.

TestMangler
10th October 2017, 17:47
Apparently we have called the talks off for tomorrow as we haven't got a negotiator. The EU aren't happy about our time wasting.

Why do we need a negotiator ? Can we not just get Shaunbhoy to wave a Union Jack and play the Dad's army theme on his flute ?

darmstadt
10th October 2017, 18:09
Actually, she has explicitly said it won't be Switzerland either. Several times. Starting in her speech to the Tory conference last year. :D



She's said a lot of things over the past few years and people still believe her :laugh

http://www.conversion-uplift.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Theresa-May-on-the-EU-referendum-1024x593.jpg

Paddy
10th October 2017, 18:11
Apparently we have called the talks off for tomorrow as we haven't got a negotiator. The EU aren't happy about our time wasting.

Hangover

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/07/14/14/425557E400000578-4696900-image-a-30_1500040381106.jpg

BlasterBates
10th October 2017, 19:18
Theresa May refused to say in an interview that she would vote for Brexit in the event of a second referendum.

That's what I like, real commitment.

Theresa May waffles on her conviction for Brexit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-second-eu-referendum-brexit-refuses-to-say-how-vote-remain-leave-a7993456.html)

:D

AtW
10th October 2017, 20:24
Did she vote for herself? :eyes

BrilloPad
10th October 2017, 20:45
Theresa May refused to say in an interview that she would vote for Brexit in the event of a second referendum.

That's what I like, real commitment.

Theresa May waffles on her conviction for Brexit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-second-eu-referendum-brexit-refuses-to-say-how-vote-remain-leave-a7993456.html)

:D

Because she does not answer stupid questions.

AtW
10th October 2017, 20:48
Because she does not answer stupid questions.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/theresa-may-refuses-eu-citizens-171948571.html

darmstadt
10th October 2017, 20:49
Because she does not answer stupid questions.

You wanna bet?

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/theresa.jpg

AtW
10th October 2017, 20:49
Because she does not answer stupid questions.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-refuses-to-deny-boris-johnson-has-become-unsackable-amid-brexit-row-a3647801.html

AtW
10th October 2017, 20:49
You wanna bet?

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/theresa.jpg

It was confession, not an answer...