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AtW
22nd October 2017, 15:36
Brexit negotiations with the EU are heading for a "no deal" scenario, Labour's Emily Thornberry has warned.

Shadow foreign secretary Ms Thornberry said the PM's failure to control her party was causing "intransigence" on the UK side, which was a "serious threat to Britain" and its interests.

But International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said a failure to agree a deal was "not exactly a nightmare scenario".

The UK was preparing "mitigation" measures for such an outcome, he said.

Brexit: Emily Thornberry predicts no deal with the EU - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41713533)

DOOMED!!!

Mordac
22nd October 2017, 16:08
Brexit negotiations with the EU are heading for a "no deal" scenario, Labour's Emily Thornberry has warned.

Shadow foreign secretary Ms Thornberry said the PM's failure to control her party was causing "intransigence" on the UK side, which was a "serious threat to Britain" and its interests.

But International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said a failure to agree a deal was "not exactly a nightmare scenario".

The UK was preparing "mitigation" measures for such an outcome, he said.

Brexit: Emily Thornberry predicts no deal with the EU - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41713533)

DOOMED!!!

Emily Dingleberry's predictions are not newsworthy, even when she's got a 50-50 chance of being correct.

jamesbrown
22nd October 2017, 16:53
Emily Dingleberry's predictions are not newsworthy, even when she's got a 50-50 chance of being correct.

That's Lady Dingleberry to you.

sal
23rd October 2017, 10:16
But International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said a failure to agree a deal was "not exactly a nightmare scenario".

The UK was preparing "mitigation" measures for such an outcome, he said.

Including, but not limited to:

- Lining up lemonade stands and port-a-potties along the M20, to boost the local economy
- Conversion of the freshly vacated office buildings in the city and CW to affordable housing
- Stock up on BMW, Audi and MB and bubbly for the next 5 years - suck on that import tariffs
- Devalue the £ enough so our exports cost exactly the same overseas after tariffs - success

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 10:21
Emily Dingleberry's predictions are not newsworthy, even when she's got a 50-50 chance of being correct.

When you say 50-50, do you mean that there are two outcomes, or that these two outcomes have an equal probability of occurring?

Mordac
23rd October 2017, 10:42
When you say 50-50, do you mean that there are two outcomes, or that these two outcomes have an equal probability of occurring?

There are two outcomes, there will be a Deal, or there will be No Deal. Whether the chance of each happening is equal is impossible to guess, since no-one knows exactly how much blood money Juncker really wants...

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 10:45
When you say 50-50, do you mean that there are two outcomes, or that these two outcomes have an equal probability of occurring?

Are you a fooktard? 50-50 as yes or no . However you are 100% f00ktard.

HTH BISDI

WTFH
23rd October 2017, 10:49
Are you a fooktard? 50-50 as yes or no . However you are 100% f00ktard.

HTH BISDI

Well, it's a bit like your divorces, the deal will always be 50-50, just not 50% 50%

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 10:53
There are two outcomes, there will be a Deal, or there will be No Deal. Whether the chance of each happening is equal is impossible to guess, since no-one knows exactly how much blood money Juncker really wants...

Then why did you say it was 50-50?

Rhetorical question - we both know the answer.

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 10:53
Well, it's a bit like your divorces, the deal will always be 50-50, just not 50% 50%

Not true. In divorce its 100% for the woman. I think the judges head will explode if they ever have to do ancillary relief for a lesbian couple.

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 10:57
Are you a fooktard? 50-50 as yes or no . However you are 100% f00ktard.

HTH BISDI

What did you get your degree in again?

Yes or no could be 80-20 or 90-10. You are 100% f00ktard.

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 11:13
Theresa May doesn't deny grovelling in a weak and unseemly fashion in front of the EU commission (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-talks-dinner-leaks-beg-help-brussels-eu-no-10-european-commission-jean-claude-a8015076.html)


Ms May appeared “tormented”, “despondent and discouraged” and “begged” for help to push forward the negotiations

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 11:15
What did you get your degree in again?

Yes or no could be 80-20 or 90-10. You are 100% f00ktard.

Binary option.

Have you never done degree level stats?

Mordac
23rd October 2017, 11:16
Then why did you say it was 50-50?

Rhetorical question - we both know the answer.

Because she guessed - sorry, predicted "No Deal", thereby having a one in two chance of being correct.

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 11:18
Theresa May doesn't deny grovelling in a weak and unseemly fashion in front of the EU commission (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-talks-dinner-leaks-beg-help-brussels-eu-no-10-european-commission-jean-claude-a8015076.html)

It's all getting a bit sad really. Good job that the EU has had the sense to start forging links with Corbyn.

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 11:22
Binary option.

Have you never done degree level stats?

50-50 suggests that the two outcomes have the same probability.

Would you use '50-50' to describe the chances of rolling a '6' on a 6 sided dice where '6' is on one side and '1' on each of the other 5 sides?

If you did degree level stats, I'd say you have a 50-50 chance of getting a refund off the 'educational institution' you attended.

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 11:23
Because she guessed - sorry, predicted "No Deal", thereby having a one in two chance of being correct.

Only if the two chances have the same probability.

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 11:27
50-50 suggests that the two outcomes have the same probability.

Would you use '50-50' to describe the chances of rolling a '6' on a 6 sided dice where '6' is on one side and '1' on each of the other 5 sides?

If you did degree level stats, I'd say you have a 50-50 chance of getting a refund off the 'educational institution' you attended.

In your interpretation.

Everyone else knew what the OP meant.

No-one has any idea what will happen in the future.

Mordac
23rd October 2017, 11:30
Only if the two chances have the same probability.

:igmc:

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 11:30
In your interpretation.

Everyone else knew what the OP meant.

No-one has any idea what will happen in the future.

So you're backtracking into waffle, now that your 'mathematical expertise' has been shown up again. Never mind, Brillo. :)

Binary option indeed. :rollin:

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 11:34
So you're backtracking into waffle, now that your 'mathematical expertise' has been shown up again. Never mind, Brillo. :)

Binary option indeed. :rollin:

Either Exeter is a crap institution to study Maths in or Brillo is lying. Or both. :laugh:laugh

original PM
23rd October 2017, 11:39
When you say 50-50, do you mean that there are two outcomes, or that these two outcomes have an equal probability of occurring?

There are two outcomes.

And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 11:49
There are two outcomes.

And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.

You really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.

Here's a fact:

Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.

So actually we have a continuum:

Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.

If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.

But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 12:00
"completely free market"

its a free trade zone between 27 member nations, the market outside those is subject to taxes and tariffs, so not a completely free market

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 12:03
You really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.

Here's a fact:

Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.

So actually we have a continuum:

Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.

If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.

But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.

Indeed and Ms May let the cat out of the bag when she rejected the Canada deal as a model. The EU is totally inflexible in this regard so effectively if Canada is off the table, it's Switzerland/Norway and that means freedom of movement.

The 60 billion bill is not negotiable and neither is freedom of movement. Having swallowed those two poisoned pills the "reward" will be huge queues of lorries at the border, like you see in Switzerland and banks moving half of their operations to the EU,

That will be the best you can get. Congratulations !

:D

The only hope then is that the UK will be able to cut a fantastic deal with the US and live happily ever after eating chlorinated chickens.

original PM
23rd October 2017, 12:09
You really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.

Here's a fact:

Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.

So actually we have a continuum:

Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.

If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.

But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.

From a financial perspective that is possibly true - not definitely as we do not know what the future will hold. We may not get the 'best' deal with the EU (whatever that may be), we may get better deals with trading partners outside the EU.

However the 'deal' is about more than finances from many brexiters point of view.

And that is the challenge - and it comes down to the thread I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 12:15
There are two outcomes.

And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.

So you think that Outcome A 'no deal' and Outcome B 'deal' both have a one in two probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.

You presumably also think that Outcome A 'no deal', Outcome B 'deal with UK in customs union' and Outcome C 'deal with UK not in customs union' all have a one in three probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.

WTFH
23rd October 2017, 12:21
Well, apart from making it more difficult for genuine contractors to take contracts in 27 countries, and apart from making it more difficult for manufacturing and supply chain, and apart from it making it more difficult to get low cost labour for harvesting and apart from it reducing the numbers of doctors and nurses available for the NHS and apart from it making European & US travel more difficult than it currently is, and apart from the Ireland question, I mean apart from all of that, there are probably only a few other reasons why Brexit will be bad.

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 12:25
Well, apart from making it more difficult for genuine contractors to take contracts in 27 countries, and apart from making it more difficult for manufacturing and supply chain, and apart from it making it more difficult to get low cost labour for harvesting and apart from it reducing the numbers of doctors and nurses available for the NHS and apart from it making European & US travel more difficult than it currently is, and apart from the Ireland question, I mean apart from all of that, there are probably only a few other reasons why Brexit will be bad.

And of course there are no reasons why Brexit would be good.

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 12:26
And that is the challenge - and it comes down to the thread I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.

Is you were told at the time, because you are a Brexiter which is inherently evil.

HTH
A Remoaner

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 12:26
And of course there are no reasons why Brexit would be good.

It's good for anyone who shorted GBP at the right moment.

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 12:27
"completely free market"

its a free trade zone between 27 member nations, the market outside those is subject to taxes and tariffs, so not a completely free market

Well obviously I'm talking about the relationship with our closest and largest trading partner.
External trade deals as touted by Brexiters are mostly hot air.
Because our economy is 80% services and location matters.
The only other external trading partner that *might* compensate is the US, and we know that's going to be completely one-sided.
Which is why I keep saying we're going to be the de facto 51st vassal state of the US, without the rights of the other 50.

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 12:31
....I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.

I asked if you thought, as a public sector worker, money grew on trees?
But I get your point.
It may be better to live in 2nd world squalor than allow free movement.

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 12:32
Well obviously I'm talking about the relationship with our closest and largest trading partner.
External trade deals as touted by Brexiters are mostly hot air.
Because our economy is 80% services and location matters.
The only other external trading partner that *might* compensate is the US, and we know that's going to be completely one-sided.
Which is why I keep saying we're going to be the de facto 51st vassal state of the US, without the rights of the other 50.

I'd argue that divorce from the EU gives us the opportunity not to just have one or two new BFF's be they US or China etc but to have lots of f*** buddies with whom we can have a mutually beneficial relationships

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 12:34
I'd argue that divorce from the EU gives us the opportunity not to just have one or two new BFF's be they US or China etc but to have lots of f*** buddies with whom we can have a mutually beneficial relationships

And what do you propose we trade with these countries?

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 12:35
And what do you propose we trade with these countries?

Unicorns.

original PM
23rd October 2017, 13:01
I asked if you thought, as a public sector worker, money grew on trees?
But I get your point.
It may be better to live in 2nd world squalor than allow free movement.

As I am not a public sector worker then I probably did not answer the question.

Strangely enough if money is made of paper then there is definitely a correlation between money and trees.....

And as for 1st, 2nd or 3rd world countries - thats a bit ootdated now.

First, Second, and Third World - Nations Online Project (http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/third_world_countries.htm)

E.g the world has moved on --- it has changed -- it will continue to change.

Can you change and keep up?

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 13:04
So you think that Outcome A 'no deal' and Outcome B 'deal' both have a one in two probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.

You presumably also think that Outcome A 'no deal', Outcome B 'deal with UK in customs union' and Outcome C 'deal with UK not in customs union' all have a one in three probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.

Come on, oPM. You can do it!

jamesbrown
23rd October 2017, 13:12
And what do you propose we trade with these countries?


A Thursday night with nlady (offpeak*)
Excel 101 with sas & scootie
Remainer tears











*Every night with nlady is offpeak

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 13:19
And what do you propose we trade with these countries?

there are still lots of things this country does very well, high end engineering, technology, pharma etc

brexit gives us the opportunity to target our workforce and businesses towards these USP's, make the most of whatever competitive advantage we have and build on it.

obviously this isn't going to happen on brexit day +1 but I've always seem it as a 100+ year decision, if the government can get it's act together and adopt the right principles and approach we could probably create an economy that is attractive to businesses and innovation

Britain still commands a fair reputation around the world when it comes to commerce and producing quality products & services play it right and there are opportunities that can be exploited that are much more difficult inside the EU

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 13:34
there are still lots of things this country does very well, high end engineering, technology, pharma etc


That's right.
Unfortunately the manufacturing sector is too small/not enough is British owned.
80% of what Britain does well is in services (I'd include pharma and some tech e.g. software in that), and unfortunately the biggest industry is financial (you know all those rich Bankers that Brexiters want to leave who pay the taxes for public services and whose infrasturcture keeps 1000s of SMES going).
Sadly none of the external countries we might sign trade deals with will want to know about services competing with theirs or freedom of movement.
In the long run the UK may or may not succeed (history is not encouraging on national renewal when a country is in a post-peak dissolute stage), but in the short and medium term it's going to take a hit.

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 13:47
That's right.
Unfortunately the manufacturing sector is too small/not enough is British owned.
80% of what Britain does well is in services (I'd include pharma and some tech e.g. software in that), and unfortunately the biggest industry is financial (you know all those rich Bankers that Brexiters want to leave who pay the taxes for public services and whose infrasturcture keeps 1000s of SMES going).
Sadly none of the external countries we might sign trade deals with will want to know about services competing with theirs or freedom of movement.
In the long run the UK may or may not succeed (history is not encouraging on national renewal when a country is in a post-peak dissolute stage), but in the short and medium term it's going to take a hit.

adopt free market low taxation and regulation principles and that "hit" could be very short lived, try to do more of the same then you are doomed to failure

like I said Brexit can be a very exciting opportunity to correct a failing path, no one wants to stay on a failing path even if all your mates are heading in the same direction

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 13:52
That's right.
Unfortunately the manufacturing sector is too small/not enough is British owned.
80% of what Britain does well is in services (I'd include pharma and some tech e.g. software in that), and unfortunately the biggest industry is financial (you know all those rich Bankers that Brexiters want to leave who pay the taxes for public services and whose infrasturcture keeps 1000s of SMES going).
Sadly none of the external countries we might sign trade deals with will want to know about services competing with theirs or freedom of movement.
In the long run the UK may or may not succeed (history is not encouraging on national renewal when a country is in a post-peak dissolute stage), but in the short and medium term it's going to take a hit.

If you listen to Jacob Rees-Mogg and his cohort of followers the argument is to unilaterally reduce all tariffs into the UK to make goods cheaper and therefore to almost completely irradicate any potential of exporting competitively for huge swathes of British industry, since this wouldn't be reciprocated. If they want reciprocated agreements it would take many years of painstaking negotiations and this would mean consumers paying massive import tariffs until they got trade agreements. Many trade deals involve freedom of movement, and the relaxation of visa rules. For example if the UK signed up to NAFTA any Mexican with a reasonable educational qualification would be entitled to come to the UK and potentially the UK market could be flooded with Mexican and American contractors.

In other words the dreams of the isolationist Brexiteers are not deliverable without ending up like Greenland, impoverished and then returning to suck the teat of the EU.

AtW
23rd October 2017, 13:52
adopt free market low taxation and regulation principles and that "hit" could be very short lived, try to do more of the same then you are doomed to failure

Low taxation, how is that possible in a country that got no other revenues to fund massive spending?

meridian
23rd October 2017, 13:56
adopt free market low taxation and regulation principles and that "hit" could be very short lived, try to do more of the same then you are doomed to failure

like I said Brexit can be a very exciting opportunity to correct a failing path, no one wants to stay on a failing path even if all your mates are heading in the same direction

Whether it's currently a "failing path" is only your opinion. Most other countries around the world seem to see the way forward is to form regional trading blocks, so perhaps you know something they don't...

As Brexiters are fond of mentioning, we already trade with other countries outside the EU, so your plan appears to be to feck things up for the 40+% of trade that goes to the EU, and force everyone to ship their goods and services elsewhere?

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 14:11
adopt free market low taxation and regulation principles and that "hit" could be very short lived, try to do more of the same then you are doomed to failure

like I said Brexit can be a very exciting opportunity to correct a failing path, no one wants to stay on a failing path even if all your mates are heading in the same direction

Ah yes the wet dream of the Tory right.
Problem is I doubt if the majority of the Brexiters voted for that :laugh:laugh:laugh
What did they vote for?
WHo the fook knows, an impossible dream: have your cake and eat it, send the foreigners back and still have staff to pick fruit and work in the NHS, look after us poor folk but we dont really know where the money is going to come from, let's get back to the past but still be in the future and other unicorn-loving stupidity.

AtW
23rd October 2017, 14:12
What did they vote for?

They voted for Brexit.

And Brexit means Brexit, stoooopid!

northernladyuk
23rd October 2017, 14:14
Come on, oPM. You can do it!


They voted for Brexit.

And Brexit means Brexit, stoooopid!

It means leaving the European Union.

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 14:18
They voted for Brexit.

And Brexit means Brexit, stoooopid!

Quite. The only real Brexit is no-deal WTO rules. And I'm inclined to think that is the best option for the country in the long run.
Every country has its myths - the problem is if they're believed too much.
Every country needs a very painful period to reflect and to realise what it is and what it is not. :D

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 14:28
Theresa May warns she will reject Brexit transition if UK has failed to strike long-term EU trade deal | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-transition-uk-eu-deal-david-davis-reject-conservative-government-a8015561.html)

The only possible outcome from the Brexit negotiations is some sort of abject humiliation of some kind or another

Oh dear,
Oh deary me,
Oh deary deary me

:D

AtW
23rd October 2017, 14:56
Theresa May warns she will reject Brexit transition if UK has failed to strike long-term EU trade deal | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-transition-uk-eu-deal-david-davis-reject-conservative-government-a8015561.html)

The only possible outcome from the Brexit negotiations is some sort of abject humiliation of some kind or another

Oh dear,
Oh deary me,
Oh deary deary me

:D

Beggars can't be choosers...

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 15:06
Low taxation, how is that possible in a country that got no other revenues to fund massive spending?

by not having massive spending

AtW
23rd October 2017, 15:10
by not having massive spending

Deficit is still £50-60 bln, to break even you'd have to cut NHS spending by 50% at current levels of taxation.

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 15:14
Whether it's currently a "failing path" is only your opinion. Most other countries around the world seem to see the way forward is to form regional trading blocks, so perhaps you know something they don't...

As Brexiters are fond of mentioning, we already trade with other countries outside the EU, so your plan appears to be to feck things up for the 40+% of trade that goes to the EU, and force everyone to ship their goods and services elsewhere?

you're assuming that post brexit EU nationals and companies will instantly not want British good or services

for some any tariff or tax will not make a British import viable, for others they still wouldn't be able to get the same product from another supplier at a competitive price so trade continues

same works the opposite way around.

the EU may want to slap a 10% tariff on JLR cars imported into the EU, how would the German and French car manufacturers feel about a similar 10% tariff applied to their exports and eating into one of their most lucrative markets?

the above scenario would apply to a host of industries and once the EU based corporations begin to influence brexit negotiations you'll see the EU's hard ball tactics quickly soften and we'll end up with some form of a mutually beneficial deal, likely to take a lot longer then April 2019 to implement however

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 15:15
Deficit is still £50-60 bln, to break even you'd have to cut NHS spending by 50% at current levels of taxation.

over the period of a couple of decades I'd happily cut the NHS budget in half

WTFH
23rd October 2017, 15:17
over the period of a couple of decades I'd happily cut the NHS budget in half

But it's going to increase by £350million a week, that was a promise.
Brexit means £350million a week extra for the NHS.

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 15:19
you're assuming that post brexit EU nationals and companies will instantly not want British good or services


On a German TV program small business owners were saying things like once the UK is out of the EU they'll simply drop UK companies from the suppliers list, so it will happen unless importing goods remains easy. Most of the stuff these companies buy from the UK can be bought from elsewhere in the EU.

Why would you buy your kettles from the UK supplier where everything gets stuck in customs and you have to fill out a load of paperwork when you can buy alternative ones from Denmark for example.

These are small companies that do all their business within the EU and can't be bothered with the hassle of looking beyond the EU.

Of course no-one is suggesting companies will stop buying British goods altogether just it will get harder,

AtW
23rd October 2017, 15:21
over the period of a couple of decades I'd happily cut the NHS budget in half

Over next couple of decades more people will reach old age, so costs of keeping them alive will only increase, whilst number of workers will decrease (especially with Brexit stopping new labour from moving into UK).

AtW
23rd October 2017, 15:22
On a German TV program small business owners were saying things like once the UK is out of the EU they'll simply drop UK companies from the suppliers list, so it will happen unless importing goods remains easy. Most of the stuff these companies buy from the UK can be bought from elsewhere in the EU.

They'll have to - without single market stuff can be stuck in customs for 45 working days, who the feck needs it when modern businesses rely on Just In Time deliveries?

Those British businesses that are still viable will have to move to EU in order to stay alive, it won't be pretty, but on a plus side Business owners will get flat rate 25% dividend tax in Germany compared with 38% here, that's nearly half reduction of tax bill!

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 15:24
On a German TV program small business owners were saying things like once the UK is out of the EU they'll simply drop UK companies from the suppliers list, so it will happen unless importing goods remains easy. Most of the stuff these companies buy from the UK can be bought from elsewhere in the EU.

Why would you buy your kettles from the UK supplier where everything gets stuck in customs and you have to fill out a load of paperwork when you can buy alternative ones from Denmark for example.

These are small companies that do all their business within the EU and can't be bothered with the hassle of looking beyond the EU.

Of course no-one is suggesting companies will stop buying British goods altogether just it will get harder,

which is why we shouldn't focus our efforts and workforce on making kettles, which is old technology, low margin, and leaves you open to being under cut from a supplier who can produce the same goods for at a much lower cost

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 15:24
you're assuming that post brexit EU nationals and companies will instantly not want British good or services

for some any tariff or tax will not make a British import viable, for others they still wouldn't be able to get the same product from another supplier at a competitive price so trade continues

same works the opposite way around.



I doubt there are very many products for which Britain is the sole supplier.
In fact I can't think of a single one, apart maybe from some pharma drugs.
There's plenty of competition for the stuff at which we are world class: aero engines etc.
Like I said manufacturing in the Uk is not very extensive.



the EU may want to slap a 10% tariff on JLR cars imported into the EU, how would the German and French car manufacturers feel about a similar 10% tariff applied to their exports and eating into one of their most lucrative markets?


It'll no doubt hurt them, but it'll hurt us more. JLR has built a nice spanking new plant in Slovakia for just this eventuality.
Simply ramp up production there, no doubt several other manufacturers will be in a similar position.
Eventually we'll have no more manufacturing, or even less than we have now, solely catering to the local market.
Even the pro-Leave "Economists for Brexit" Patrick Minford accepts this



the above scenario would apply to a host of industries and once the EU based corporations begin to influence brexit negotiations you'll see the EU's hard ball tactics quickly soften and we'll end up with some form of a mutually beneficial deal, likely to take a lot longer then April 2019 to implement however

Maybe, maybe not.
The German CBI has said the integrity of the single market is more important to them than the short term pain from losing/reducing a market of 60 million. The Germans aren't focused on the short term as we are.

AtW
23rd October 2017, 15:28
which is why we shouldn't focus our efforts and workforce on making kettles, which is old technology, low margin, and leaves you open to being under cut from a supplier who can produce the same goods for at a much lower cost

I think you may find that almost all manufacturing is low margin.

Services are high margin.

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 15:33
[QUOTE=sasguru;2486924] QUOTE]

didn't Mercedes move production to eastern Europe in the early 2000's? they quickly bought it back to Germany as the build quality diminished, eventually they realised that short term cost reductions had an effect on the quality of the product produced and over the longer term affected the bottom line

& JLR have also built production facilities in Brazil and Malaysia, they're future business model is thinking way beyond European markets

and to the contrary I think the remain side is thinking very short term "OMG the £ has devalued"

think 25-50 years down the line - how long can a fractious political union last vs an independent country that can dictate it's own future and have the ability to adjust and pivot where necessary

obviously you need a government capable of such dynamism but that's a different argument

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 15:36
over the period of a couple of decades I'd happily cut the NHS budget in half

Ther comes a time in any argument with a Brexiter when the contradictions in their argument becomes apparent.
We've reached that point:D
Do you think Brexiters voted to cut the " cut the NHS budget in half"?:rollin::rollin:
And as AtW has noted, we're tightening immigration which means the population will age faster, NHS spending will HAVE to increase, relative to the working population.
Who's going to fund it now? No one has a clue.

WTFH
23rd October 2017, 15:36
I think you may find that almost all manufacturing is low margin.

Services are high margin.

And manufacturing requires a supply chain and standards to be met.

Something I've explained before to some on here, but it's a pointless cause.

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 15:39
which is why we shouldn't focus our efforts and workforce on making kettles, which is old technology, low margin, and leaves you open to being under cut from a supplier who can produce the same goods for at a much lower cost

I mentioned kettles as an example.

Not everything you manufacture will be some high tech piece of equipment that can' be copied like aero engines, there are plenty of small businesses making all sorts of products that are sold elsewhere in the EU.

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 15:41
didn't Mercedes move production to eastern Europe in the early 2000's? they quickly bought it back to Germany as the build quality diminished, eventually they realised that short term cost reductions had an effect on the quality of the product produced and over the longer term affected the bottom line


There were all sorts of reasons for Mercedes build quality issues at that time, mostly due to the Crysler merger, also yes their SA built cars had problems, also they started to de-engineer their cars to compete at a price at that time.

But at no time was it due to European build quality issues.

Every car company is investing in other countries that have potential, of course, but in the forseeable future the 2 largest markets are the US and the EU. These are simple the 2 richest regions in the world by a fooking large margin.

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 15:49
Ther comes a time in any argument with a Brexiter when the contradictions in their argument becomes apparent.
We've reached that point:D
Do you think Brexiters voted to cut the " cut the NHS budget in half"?:rollin::rollin:
And as AtW has noted, we're tightening immigration which means the population will age faster, NHS spending will HAVE to increase, relative to the working population.
Who's going to fund it now? No one has a clue.

where's the contradiction?

IF you are going to have a reduction in government revenue then you cut expenditure

but if you actually cut taxes government revenue actually increases, as the cost of avoidance isn't as worth it and it encourages more enterprise

obviously you can't turn the tap off overnight hence I said a couple of decades, then once you've serviced those who have no other means of healthcare or a pension etc, you tell the next generation "from Year X you guys are on you're own" what then happens is a market is created and competition introduced whereby private companies can offer healthcare or pension provisions

a government can then reduce the scope and cost of NHS services to helping only the very needy or to save your life

and the "I don't think that's what Brexiteers voted for" is a strawman argument I know I didn't vote to give the NHS another £350m a week neither did I vote to kick out all the foreigners, there's a much bigger picture at play and a whole myriad of reasons 17m people voted to leave the EU

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 15:55
where's the contradiction?

IF you are going to have a reduction in government revenue then you cut expenditure

but if you actually cut taxes government revenue actually increases, as the cost of avoidance isn't as worth it and it encourages more enterprise

obviously you can't turn the tap off overnight hence I said a couple of decades, then once you've serviced those who have no other means of healthcare or a pension etc, you tell the next generation "from Year X you guys are on you're own" what then happens is a market is created and competition introduced whereby private companies can offer healthcare or pension provisions

a government can then reduce the scope and cost of NHS services to helping only the very needy or to save your life

and the "I don't think that's what Brexiteers voted for" is a strawman argument I know I didn't vote to give the NHS another £350m a week neither did I vote to kick out all the foreigners, there's a much bigger picture at play and a whole myriad of reasons 17m people voted to leave the EU

You're waffling now.
What you think is irrelevant.
Demographic analysis shows the Brexit demographic as a whole as being (1) older and (2) more poorly educated.
What do you think Brexiters will do to the individual/party who cuts NHS spending in half?
It's not politically doable and you know it.:rolleyes:
Cutting NHS spending in half is Brexit pie-in-the sky bollux.

OwlHoot
23rd October 2017, 16:02
And as AtW has noted, we're tightening immigration which means the population will age faster, ...

Are you really so utterly deluded and brainwashed as to believe that, with the literally millions of immigrants already here all merrily reproducing?

If property prices and taxes (both absurdly high due to immigration) could be reduced, then indigenous people alone would easily also maintain a steady population

filthy1980
23rd October 2017, 16:02
You're waffling now.
What you think is irrelevant.
Demographic analysis shows the Brexit demographic as a whole as being (1) older and (2) more poorly educated.
What do you think Brexiters will do to the individual/party who cuts NHS spending in half?
It's not politically doable and you know it.:rolleyes:
Cutting NHS spending in half is Brexit pie-in-the sky bollux.

I've not heard any politician or public brexit figure suggest it, ATW asked how the NHS would be funded, I gave him my answer

"older and more poorly educated"

and then you wonder why people who don't feel they have a lot to lose stick their fingers up at a system that demeans and condescends them at any given opportunity

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 16:09
Are you really so utterly deluded and brainwashed as to believe that, with the literally millions of immigrants already here all merrily reproducing?

If property prices and taxes (both absurdly high due to immigration) could be reduced, then indigenous people alone would easily also maintain a steady population

I know maths and numbers aren't your cup of tea, so knock yourself out educating yourself:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-an-ageing-population
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/mar2017
Aging Britain: One in 12 will be aged over 80 by 2039 - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11962587/Aging-Britain-One-in-12-will-be-aged-over-80-by-2039.html)
https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2017/jan/16/the-new-retirement-how-an-ageing-population-is-transforming-britain

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 16:11
I've not heard any politician or public brexit figure suggest it, ATW asked how the NHS would be funded, I gave him my answer

"older and more poorly educated"

and then you wonder why people who don't feel they have a lot to lose stick their fingers up at a system that demeans and condescends them at any given opportunity

Actually what I wonder is what happened to education standards so that people can't seem to parse and analyse data:rolleyes:
Long may it continue though, it's why people who can earn the big bucks, no doubt.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-inequality-and-the-demographic-divide/

AtW
23rd October 2017, 16:46
Do you think Brexiters voted to cut the " cut the NHS budget in half"?:rollin::rollin:

Problem is that cretins think that it's the immigrants who use most of NHS resources - in 20 years in UK I've used GP few times, about 1 hour worth of in total, plus once use A&E for injection (after squirrel bitten me :mad ) - regretted going to A&E for years as I felt not well after it, or maybe it was the bite...

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 16:48
Problem is that cretins think that it's the immigrants who use most of NHS resources - in 20 years in UK I've used GP few times, about 1 hour worth of in total, plus once use A&E for injection (after squirrel bitten me :mad ) - regretted going to A&E for years as I felt not well after it, or maybe it was the bite...

Was it the suirrel bite that gave you the infection that required the lobotomy?

AtW
23rd October 2017, 16:48
but if you actually cut taxes government revenue actually increases, as the cost of avoidance isn't as worth it and it encourages more enterprise

Depends how much you cut and it would only work for specific taxes, say cutting fuel duty by half won't double the take.

The budget in UK is increasingly dependent on "high earners", jobs for whom will start disappearing before and especially after Tory No Deal Brexit.

AtW
23rd October 2017, 16:49
Was it the suirrel bite that gave you the infection that required the lobotomy?

I started having strange headaches for many years after the bite...

AtW
23rd October 2017, 16:50
I've not heard any politician or public brexit figure suggest it, ATW asked how the NHS would be funded, I gave him my answer

You answered it? :eyes

sasguru
23rd October 2017, 16:55
You answered it? :eyes

Yes cutting the budget in half would effectively mean he'd abolish it.
Another simplistic solution from the mind of a Brexiter.
I dunno why I bother really.
It's clear the country is fooked since the only people leaving post Brexit will likely be the highly skilled and educated (indigenous AND foreign), leaving behind the cretinati (indigenous AND foreign) to wreck the country further.

BlasterBates
23rd October 2017, 17:18
Are you really so utterly deluded and brainwashed as to believe that, with the literally millions of immigrants already here all merrily reproducing?

If property prices and taxes (both absurdly high due to immigration) could be reduced, then indigenous people alone would easily also maintain a steady population

Every year over 200,000 workers retire and are not replaced by the local population if you stopped immigration you'd have a massive problem.

This very fact means however much people will bawl about immigration, it will continue at current levels, because Britain can't afford a declining working population whilst the retired population expands. Simple arithmetic, the self-entitlement of ageing leave voters demanding services and their pensions, and the laws of finance will scupper any plans to reduce immigration.

The number of births is actually lower than in the 1960's in spite of migrants "breeding like rabbits".

xoggoth
23rd October 2017, 17:20
The great butt plug burglary: £45,000 of dildos stolen in ‘biggest sex toy heist ever’

Sex toys worth £45,000 stolen from Fun Toys London stall in ‘biggest sex toy heist ever' | Metro News (http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/23/the-great-butt-plug-burglary-45000-of-dildos-stolen-in-biggest-sex-toy-heist-ever-7021310/)

BrilloPad
23rd October 2017, 17:22
Sex toys worth £45,000 stolen from Fun Toys London stall in ‘biggest sex toy heist ever' | Metro News (http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/23/the-great-butt-plug-burglary-45000-of-dildos-stolen-in-biggest-sex-toy-heist-ever-7021310/)

If they were internet capable they could have ben disabled remotely....

Mordac
23rd October 2017, 22:52
If they were internet capable they could have ben disabled remotely....

Much more fun to turn them up to the max and leave them there until the batteries ran out. That should help the police with their inquiries... :D