No deal research from Durham University

[Yorkie62]

Just thought I'd post this for those that want to rip the guys research to shreds

Durham University Business School : News - Durham University

Suggests that yes it could be bad in the short term, but this could be alleviated by Government action. The long term is more uncertain and dependent on the UK being able to for trade deals with the EU and RoW. But we could be better off with a no deal in the long term.

[Old Greg]

Michael Nower is a 3rd year PhD Candidate in economics supervised by Dr Anamaria Nicolae at Durham University Business School and below, he shares findings from his research on the possible impact of a 'No Deal' Brexit:

Well that settles it.

[BlasterBates]

It will be a walk in the park, or maybe not:

In the event of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, the impact on the UK economy in the short run is likely to be extremely large. The research undertaken at Durham University Business School shows that over the first year after the ‘No Deal’ Brexit, UK GDP is expected to fall by over 10% relative to its pre-Brexit level. For comparison, the fall in UK GDP during the Great Recession was approximately 4.2%. This large decrease in UK GDP is driven by the disruption to both UK trade with the EU and UK trade with the non-EU countries with which the EU has existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).

So basically the UK will have to go through a recession that is worse than the great depression before it reaches the sunny uplands.

I personally doubt that the UK will get there.

[DaveB]

Well that settles it.

Well it's a step up from a Bagdad taxi driver...

[Old Greg]

Well it's a step up from a Bagdad taxi driver...

Maybe Yorkie is a Remeanie's sockie.

[WTFH]

Just thought I'd post this for those that want to rip the guys research to shreds

Durham University Business School : News - Durham University

Suggests that yes it could be bad in the short term, but this could be alleviated by Government action. The long term is more uncertain and dependent on the UK being able to for trade deals with the EU and RoW. But we could be better off with a no deal in the long term.

Well, I'm not going to rip him to shreds, but maybe I will rip your summary to shreds:

Suggests that yes it could be bad in the short term, but this could be alleviated by Government action.

Nope, he suggests it would be extremely bad in the short term, and that the only slight reduction in that would be by having zero import tariffs on everything, and a strict following of EU standards.

The long term is more uncertain and dependent on the UK being able to for trade deals with the EU and RoW. But we could be better off with a no deal in the long term.

If we sign free trade deals with the EU and non-EU countries, then we might be better off.

In other words, the only slight chance we have of being better off in the long term is if we do a deal with the EU.

[woohoo]

Research is funded mostly by the department for Business, Energy...

Same department setup in 2016 by our PM May. So, follow the money and take this research with a pinch.

[vetran]

Well it's a step up from a Bagdad rent boy...

FTFY