The BEER Factor (timescale estimation)

[Dean]

I remember reading an article in one of the contractor magazines several years ago about the BEER factor. Essentially it was a number that you multiply any estimate by in order to return the time it will actually take. It took into account code rework, changes to specifications, availability of personnel and other effects depending on the situation.

I remember that the article was quite clear that the resulting factor was usually around 2.5 and a good PM in an ideal situation could get it down to about 2.1. Anyone claiming a BEER factor of less than 2 was lying.

It was a tongue-in-cheek piece but had some good information too. I can't find anything online (searching on "BEER" doesn't really help) and I know that BEER was an acronym but that's about it.

Does anyone else remember this?

[King Cnvt]

It took into account code rework, changes to specifications, availability of personnel and other effects depending on the situation.

Did it take into account posting on CUK, Facebook, MySpace, running your 10 BTL properties, doing you online accounts, trading shares online and working on plan B whilst actually supposed to be working on the clients project?

[EternalOptimist]

I dont, but I do remember the developer chinese rice/chessboard multiplier


an average developer will complete an app in x hours
a poor dev will complete the app in x * 8 hours
a good dev will complete the app in x / 8 hours
a guru will complete the app in x / 64 hours


then you get the quality issues.
When will they start paying rates according to this scale ?????????

[xoggoth]

Funny that but when I used to do mostly sales support and provided a number of software estimates for bids I did do some estimates of previous projects and did indeed find a factor of about 2.2. Not making this up.

Exactly the same ratio applies to the amount of concrete needed to repair a path/wall compared to what you think.

[NotAllThere]

I dont, but I do remember the developer chinese rice/chessboard multiplier

an average developer will complete an app in x hours
a poor dev will complete the app in x * 8 hours
a good dev will complete the app in x / 8 hours
a guru will complete the app in x / 64 hours

then you get the quality issues.
When will they start paying rates according to this scale ?????????

According to some research I read somewhere , in terms of total cost of ownership of an application, a good developer is 20x as effective as an average developer, and 50x as effective as a bad developer.

Good developers pretty much get it right first time; and if they have to rework anything, they tend to be able to do so quickly, without introducing more bugs.

The 2.5 BEER factor is flawed. What if the developer already puts that in? Then a true estimate of 1 day becomes 6 day.

[Dean]

The 2.5 BEER factor is flawed. What if the developer already puts that in? Then a true estimate of 1 day becomes 6 day.

Surely a good manager should have some idea of how long a piece of work should take and can take that into account - isn't that why they're the manager?

[NickFitz]

I can't find anything online (searching on "BEER" doesn't really help) and I know that BEER was an acronym but that's about it.

Any of these help?