UK 'will swell to 75m' as migrants raise births
The number of people living in the United Kingdom will exceed 75 million by the middle of the century, population experts now believe.
Rising immigration, a higher birthrate among migrant families and longer lifespans are on course to lift the population by at least 15 million by 2051, from last year's 60 million total. There are fears it could even hit 77 million.
The increase will be the equivalent of building two new cities the size of London. It will place enormous demands on housing, transport and public services, and will bring a dramatic change to the nation's ethnic mix.
The projection, expected to be confirmed by government population experts this week, represents a big increase from the last prediction, in 2005, which showed the UK's population rising to 69 million by 2051. The new figure will fuel the debate over Labour's policy on immigration controls.
Official forecasts of UK population growth are produced every two years by the Government Actuary's Department. They are used in Whitehall to plan public spending.
The dramatic change to a two-year-old forecast will be a new blow to official statisticians, already under fire for their inability to count accurately the number of incoming migrants. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, has complained that the poor quality of official statistics is hindering his efforts to steer the economy.
The extra anticipated growth is due to revised predictions for immigration rates, birthrates and longevity. The "underlying assumptions" on which the new projection will be based were published last month by the Office for National Statistics.
Prof Coleman told peers that the proportion of the population that is non-white was on course to grow from 9 per cent at the last census in 2001 to 29 per cent in 2051.
A baby boom among immigrant women has forced the statisticians to raise their estimate for the birthrate of the entire population.
Women are now expected to have, on average, 1.84 babies each during their lives, compared with an expectation of only 1.74 two years ago. Foreign-born women living in the UK have, on average, 2.2 children. Pakistani-born women living here have an average of 4.7, whereas British-born women have only 1.6. Last year, 22 per cent of UK births were to foreign-born women.
The rapidly growing population will increase demand for housing, putting pressure on green-belt land and shoring up property prices for years to come. Gordon Brown has promised three million new homes by 2020, yet the new forecast suggests that the population by that year will be five million higher than today. A trend for more young people to live alone is also expanding the number of new households.
Rising population numbers will also require the building of new schools and hospitals. A bigger tax base will provide the necessary finances. The arrival of working-age migrants and the increase in the birthrate will postpone the "demographic time bomb" - when the number of pensioners becomes too large for the workforce to support.
Prof Coleman told peers: "The impact of an additional 15 million people would obviously be considerable: economic, environmental, social and ethnic…
"The absent-minded commitment into which we have drifted, to house a further 15 million people, must be the biggest unintended consequence of government policy of almost any century. As it is by no means unavoidable, being almost entirely dependent upon continued immigration, it might be thought worthy of discussion. In official circles, there has been none."
Rising immigration, a higher birthrate among migrant families and longer lifespans are on course to lift the population by at least 15 million by 2051, from last year's 60 million total. There are fears it could even hit 77 million.
The increase will be the equivalent of building two new cities the size of London. It will place enormous demands on housing, transport and public services, and will bring a dramatic change to the nation's ethnic mix.
The projection, expected to be confirmed by government population experts this week, represents a big increase from the last prediction, in 2005, which showed the UK's population rising to 69 million by 2051. The new figure will fuel the debate over Labour's policy on immigration controls.
Official forecasts of UK population growth are produced every two years by the Government Actuary's Department. They are used in Whitehall to plan public spending.
The dramatic change to a two-year-old forecast will be a new blow to official statisticians, already under fire for their inability to count accurately the number of incoming migrants. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, has complained that the poor quality of official statistics is hindering his efforts to steer the economy.
The extra anticipated growth is due to revised predictions for immigration rates, birthrates and longevity. The "underlying assumptions" on which the new projection will be based were published last month by the Office for National Statistics.
Prof Coleman told peers that the proportion of the population that is non-white was on course to grow from 9 per cent at the last census in 2001 to 29 per cent in 2051.
A baby boom among immigrant women has forced the statisticians to raise their estimate for the birthrate of the entire population.
Women are now expected to have, on average, 1.84 babies each during their lives, compared with an expectation of only 1.74 two years ago. Foreign-born women living in the UK have, on average, 2.2 children. Pakistani-born women living here have an average of 4.7, whereas British-born women have only 1.6. Last year, 22 per cent of UK births were to foreign-born women.
The rapidly growing population will increase demand for housing, putting pressure on green-belt land and shoring up property prices for years to come. Gordon Brown has promised three million new homes by 2020, yet the new forecast suggests that the population by that year will be five million higher than today. A trend for more young people to live alone is also expanding the number of new households.
Rising population numbers will also require the building of new schools and hospitals. A bigger tax base will provide the necessary finances. The arrival of working-age migrants and the increase in the birthrate will postpone the "demographic time bomb" - when the number of pensioners becomes too large for the workforce to support.
Prof Coleman told peers: "The impact of an additional 15 million people would obviously be considerable: economic, environmental, social and ethnic…
"The absent-minded commitment into which we have drifted, to house a further 15 million people, must be the biggest unintended consequence of government policy of almost any century. As it is by no means unavoidable, being almost entirely dependent upon continued immigration, it might be thought worthy of discussion. In official circles, there has been none."
, that would do a cart horse justice 
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