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Market bottoms and tops

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    Market bottoms and tops

    The contracting market probably acts in much similar fashion to other markets. The bottom of the market is usually characterised by it being out of fashion, not being spoken of much and certainly not in the news or on anyone's radar. Those in the market at that time are quietly speculating and accumulating, perhaps waiting for better days for the market.

    The top of the market can often be characterised by an large influx of new, perhaps mostly naive, entrants. Look, for example, at the property market over the past 3 or 4 years. In this phase the market is constantly in the news or on peoples' minds, and attracts a great deal of attention, some unwanted. This is when the smart money moves on, handing over to the naivety of the new players.

    It appears that we are now receiving a greater number of enquiries from wannabe contractors, which may indeed surmise the top of the contracting market - for now. Experienced contractors will be able to ride out the ensuing lull, financially and in terms of experience. New or prospective contractors should look at their gameplan and make sure they have a back up option in place.

    #2
    Originally posted by TazMaN View Post
    ...In this phase the market is constantly in the news or on peoples' minds, and attracts a great deal of attention...

    I completely agree (having sat there with you watching it move up and down over the last two decades).

    Trouble is, that 'up' phase can go on and on, inflating ridiculously and unsustainably for ages before we finally see it collapse. It almost seems to be self perpetuating - enough to fool even more newcomers into jumping in.

    Anyone have a knitting needle?
    When you encounter speed humps, sound your horn in protest.

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      #3
      Waidaminnit!!! What am I saying. I don't want to burst it.
      When you encounter speed humps, sound your horn in protest.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by TazMaN View Post
        It appears that we are now receiving a greater number of enquiries from wannabe contractors, which may indeed surmise the top of the contracting market - for now. Experienced contractors will be able to ride out the ensuing lull, financially and in terms of experience. New or prospective contractors should look at their gameplan and make sure they have a back up option in place.
        There does seem to be a wave a potential newbie contractors building up, and that tells us that we are past the mid-point in the contractor cycle. We've had 4 good years already and expect another 3 by past measures. During that time we can expect an increasing frenzy as perms increasingly get swayed by 'the double your money for no extra effort or risk' argument.

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          #5
          Its on the way down, thats why I have been 'shorting' lately (Dont tell AtW ffs)

          I have been selling contracts that I havn't had, never will have, and dont have the skillset for, knowing that I can get them cheaper later. I need some gloom mongers to start spreading doom and gloom, so I can cash in







          (\__/)
          (>'.'<)
          ("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to Work

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            #6
            The city market is already crashing. Several IBs are not renewing, imposing rate cuts, chopping heads etc. across the board. As I have mentioned previously this IB is imposing a cap on the number of weeks I can bill !

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              #7
              Originally posted by TazMaN View Post
              The contracting market probably acts in much similar fashion to other markets. The bottom of the market is usually characterised by it being out of fashion, not being spoken of much and certainly not in the news or on anyone's radar. Those in the market at that time are quietly speculating and accumulating, perhaps waiting for better days for the market.

              The top of the market can often be characterised by an large influx of new, perhaps mostly naive, entrants. Look, for example, at the property market over the past 3 or 4 years. In this phase the market is constantly in the news or on peoples' minds, and attracts a great deal of attention, some unwanted. This is when the smart money moves on, handing over to the naivety of the new players.

              It appears that we are now receiving a greater number of enquiries from wannabe contractors, which may indeed surmise the top of the contracting market - for now. Experienced contractors will be able to ride out the ensuing lull, financially and in terms of experience. New or prospective contractors should look at their gameplan and make sure they have a back up option in place.
              Permies with massive personal debt, maxed out mortgages and nowhere to turn.
              Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired. - Cave Johnson

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Turion View Post
                There does seem to be a wave a potential newbie contractors building up, and that tells us that we are past the mid-point in the contractor cycle.
                I do remember that tripling my money was the reason I first started contracting back in '97. It was only afterwards that I came to realise how much I enjoyed all the other perks.

                Although to be honest, when I was permanent, I never really felt it - always cramming to skill up for going independent. I'm sure my experience is the same as many others on this board.
                Last edited by beercohol; 8 April 2008, 13:19. Reason: typo
                When you encounter speed humps, sound your horn in protest.

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                  #9
                  Now would be a really bad time to jump from the tepid permie swimming pool into the contractor pool.

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                    #10
                    A speculative bubble doesn't behave exactly like a real bubble, which just expands and then goes pop.

                    It's more like an earthquake, where you have periodic tremors and increasingly wild fluctuations, leading up to a crash (and ditto a recovery - it's usually windiest around the time of the equinoxes when the season is changing).

                    Because savvy traders know that these days, the very appearance of these tremors signals to many the start of a sea change in the market, and therefore their frenzied activity accentuates it in a feedback loop!

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