Posted this on another thread, but think it deserves a thread of it's own:
Oil prices are just one side of the doom.
The main problem as I see it is debt caused by poor lending practices. Currently we are seeing a credit crunch caused by poor lending on mortgages in the US. This debt was sold on to the world banks who have suffered as a result and withdrawn credit. This has led to a destruction in the housing market and hence confidence. This in turn will lead to a contraction in spending, which will lead to companies going bust/and or poor results, which will lead to rising unemployment. That will lead to the fallout from people defaulting on their massive credit card debt and a second round of pain in the financial industry. (Credit card debt is sold on just like mortgage debt). All the while the housing market will be falling like a stone. The whole pack of cards is collapsing.
Oil prices and hence higher costs for everything are just accelerating the process.
Oil prices are just one side of the doom.
The main problem as I see it is debt caused by poor lending practices. Currently we are seeing a credit crunch caused by poor lending on mortgages in the US. This debt was sold on to the world banks who have suffered as a result and withdrawn credit. This has led to a destruction in the housing market and hence confidence. This in turn will lead to a contraction in spending, which will lead to companies going bust/and or poor results, which will lead to rising unemployment. That will lead to the fallout from people defaulting on their massive credit card debt and a second round of pain in the financial industry. (Credit card debt is sold on just like mortgage debt). All the while the housing market will be falling like a stone. The whole pack of cards is collapsing.
Oil prices and hence higher costs for everything are just accelerating the process.
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