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Cyberman
6th August 2008, 11:59
Interesting figures that are based on ACTUAL SALES registered at the Land Registry from UpMy Street and are a couple of months behind for obvious reasons:



Property market in May 2008


We use property sales from the Land Registry & Registers of Scotland to create an average property price for each region, and compare this against the average in the previous month - as above - and year.

London: +0.8%; +0.3%
South East: +0.0%; +3.0%
East: +0.9%; +3.3%
E Midlands: +1.1%; +0.3%
North East: -2.4%; -1.3%
North West: -0.5%; +1.7%
South West: -2.0%; -0.8%

Wales: +0.6%; -0.7%
W Midlands: +0.5%; -0.5%
Yorkshire: +0.9%; +1.2%
Scotland: +1.4%; +12.2%
Edinburgh: -1.8%; +9.6%
Glasgow: +4.6%; -17.3%



(% changes to average price - previous month, then year)






In my area it shows an increase of 3% in the year to May..... mo massive crash at all.... and Scotland is UP 12.2% over the year !!! :banana:

BrilloPad
6th August 2008, 12:06
Interesting figures that are based on ACTUAL SALES registered at the Land Registry from UpMy Street and are a couple of months behind for obvious reasons:



Property market in May 2008


We use property sales from the Land Registry & Registers of Scotland to create an average property price for each region, and compare this against the average in the previous month - as above - and year.

London: +0.8%; +0.3%
South East: +0.0%; +3.0%
East: +0.9%; +3.3%
E Midlands: +1.1%; +0.3%
North East: -2.4%; -1.3%
North West: -0.5%; +1.7%
South West: -2.0%; -0.8%

Wales: +0.6%; -0.7%
W Midlands: +0.5%; -0.5%
Yorkshire: +0.9%; +1.2%
Scotland: +1.4%; +12.2%
Edinburgh: -1.8%; +9.6%
Glasgow: +4.6%; -17.3%



(% changes to average price - previous month, then year)






In my area it shows an increase of 3% in the year to May..... mo massive crash at all.... and Scotland is UP 12.2% over the year !!! :banana:

Can't wait to see the figures for Sep 2008........

dezze
6th August 2008, 12:16
Interesting...I live in South Hampshire and the prices have certainly been on the fall. Having said that, lots of factors could influence statistics, e.g. expensive houses holding their value, whilst less expensive are more exposed to valuation swings.

ASB
6th August 2008, 12:35
One of the arguable flaws with the land registry fiigures is that as an average you are not comparing like with like. They are not very well weighted. The extreme example would be in one region one house only is sold at 200k and then the next month that 115 million flat is sold but nothing else.

They do attempt some weightings but the pattern of sales can skew them.

Cyberman
6th August 2008, 12:39
One of the arguable flaws with the land registry fiigures is that as an average you are not comparing like with like. They are not very well weighted. The extreme example would be in one region one house only is sold at 200k and then the next month that 115 million flat is sold but nothing else.

They do attempt some weightings but the pattern of sales can skew them.




I take your point but I think there are flaws in any stats and other contributors such as Nationwide and Rightmove are probably more highly flawed because they are not based on Land Registry prices. :freaky:

ASB
6th August 2008, 12:49
I take your point but I think there are flaws in any stats and other contributors such as Nationwide and Rightmove are probably more highly flawed because they are not based on Land Registry prices. :freaky:

The whole thing is obviously somewhat subjective to say the least. I know two estate agents. Both are finding that they are achieving lower prices - though for them the real killer is that number of transaction has fallen off a cliff. For them the higher end of the market is seeing some significant falls but moving and the lower end is completely stagnant.

sasguru
6th August 2008, 12:49
I take your point but I think there are flaws in any stats and other contributors such as Nationwide and Rightmove are probably more highly flawed because they are not based on Land Registry prices. :freaky:

Not the sharpest tool in the box, are you?

DimPrawn
6th August 2008, 12:59
Not the sharpest tool in the box, are you?

Understatement of the year award goes to......

Cyberman
6th August 2008, 13:00
The whole thing is obviously somewhat subjective to say the least. I know two estate agents. Both are finding that they are achieving lower prices - though for them the real killer is that number of transaction has fallen off a cliff. For them the higher end of the market is seeing some significant falls but moving and the lower end is completely stagnant.



The market is stagnant because there are few buyers due to lack of easy mortgages available and few sellers because nobody wants to sell at less than they may have got a few months ago. This stalemate however does not mean that house prices must fall, because supply is still not meeting demand.

Cyberman
6th August 2008, 13:02
Not the sharpest tool in the box, are you?


You are of course Sasguru as most on this board would obviously testify.:freaky:

DimPrawn
6th August 2008, 13:06
The market is stagnant because there are few buyers due to lack of easy mortgages available and few sellers because nobody wants to sell at less than they may have got a few months ago. This stalemate however does not mean that house prices must fall, because supply is still not meeting demand.

Deary me.

Lookup credit bubbles and fiat currency inflation.

Or better still, since you house has gone up 12% and must still be at an all time peak, why not sell up now and cash the profit and laugh at everyone on how your home is still booming.

Cyberman
6th August 2008, 13:18
Deary me.

Lookup credit bubbles and fiat currency inflation.

Or better still, since you house has gone up 12% and must still be at an all time peak, why not sell up now and cash the profit and laugh at everyone on how your home is still booming.



What a clever prawn you are. Have you thought of changing your name? Oh perhaps not!! ...... after you castigated me a week or so back for suggesting that the government should suspend stamp duty and abolish HIPS to give impetus to the market I see these moves are being proposed in in the 'higher ministerial echelons'. :D

Diver
6th August 2008, 13:41
Realistic picture (http://bp0.blogger.com/_MkLCGt1-YSw/Rkvz2PHfn9I/AAAAAAAAAB4/spdwwaUFhcc/s1600-h/house.JPG)

ASB
6th August 2008, 13:45
The market is stagnant because there are few buyers due to lack of easy mortgages available and few sellers because nobody wants to sell at less than they may have got a few months ago. This stalemate however does not mean that house prices must fall, because supply is still not meeting demand.

There are a number of people predicting a "strong rebound". Whether this turns out to be correct remains to be seen (the key thing with forecasting is what or when but not both :freaky:).

In any event the type of market has changed significantly. In general there are two classes of vendor. Those who *have* to sell - repossession, job move, probate etc and those who *want* to sell - to trade up, down or whatever.

The former - because of the stagnant market are going to have to accept a lower price. Okay, in some limited cases and areas this may not be true. The latter may choose to stay put until there is more confidence. Of course, this sort of market is generally a good one to trade up in - ultimately it's cheaper.

So, in principle if supply is not meeting demand than there is no real reason to suggest prices are compelled to fall. But that is not the case. It is self evident that current supply far exceeds current available demand.

LittlestHobbo
6th August 2008, 13:46
I must admit I'm at a bit of a loss with those figures..

use http://http://www.property-bee.com/ (http://http://www.property-bee.com/) (don't tell every one though!)

with firefox 3.0 or less.

in my area (SE) I know prices are down nearly 10%, on the type of property i want to buy and long may it continue.

As previosly mentioned there is no like for like comparison.

Demand isn't outstripping supply, and probably won't do for a while now. I was looking at B2L and was chatting to a mate of mine who did the same at the peek. He's interest only and the rent only just covers his interest payments and infact he's finding it very hard to let at that price.

B2L interest only mortgage was just a vehicle to keep people in the market and to drive up prices, in my opinion.

Some one like me (with high liquidity) is going to come along buy a similar property much cheaper make some money on my rental and charge less for the let. Many people like him will end up having to drop/ subsidise his rent to compete or sell up, it could create a downward spirral.

Everyone in our area who can't sell is trying to let.

As in the 90's people will just live with Mum and Dad for longer. For first time buyers the price of housing just is not sustainable full stop. And as anyone who has been in a chain knows they are quite important to the process.

It seems to me that everywhere I look there are new houses squashed in unnatural places and houses converted into tiny flats.

The stock of quality housing is probably reducing as one house is knocked down and made into 4, which could be whats driving the figures, somewhere though there has to be parity.

Many of the temporary workers and immigrants will move on once the work dries up. I think there could be a glut of properties then, hopefully at the same time the BOE will have slashed interest rates.

Your doom is my boom.

Old Greg
6th August 2008, 14:09
If house prices are going to go up or stagnate, try spread-betting on the Halifax House Price Index - you'll clean up!

Anyway, we sold up in April and are now renting, and I'm feeling much better about things than I would have done if we'd bought the bigger house we were planning to.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.

bobhope
6th August 2008, 14:14
You probably don't understand:

* His house is special
* His area won't be affected


and of course: it's different this time :-)

ASB
6th August 2008, 14:21
If house prices are going to go up or stagnate, try spread-betting on the Halifax House Price Index - you'll clean up!

Anyway, we sold up in April and are now renting, and I'm feeling much better about things than I would have done if we'd bought the bigger house we were planning to.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.

Only hindsight will tell if you actually end up better off, trying to call the bottom will be likened to catching falling knives. I guess the declines is likely to have some way to go so you can probably improve your position. When we last moved in 1991 we sold a house in Middlesex @ 96k. Bought one in Somerset @ 205,000. This subsequently dropped to probably 180,000 (by which time the one we sold was probably about 85k).

About 1 year before when we considered moving the house we sold was probably worth 115k. The house we actually bought was marketed at 350,000 and had an offer of 325,000 turned down.

Cost to change therefore reduced from 250k ish to 110k ish (and at the absolute trough would have been 100k ish).

The point of this? The tendency is that when the recovery starts it has always tended to be strong. If you are still looking to buy a bigger house then wait until there is blood in the streets and only those who would be regarded as insane are buying. This is probably as close as you'll get to calling the bottom.

Good luck.

expat
6th August 2008, 14:29
So, in principle if supply is not meeting demand than there is no real reason to suggest prices are compelled to fall. But that is not the case. It is self evident that current supply far exceeds current available demand."Supply" and "demand" are not fixed numbers; each is a function of price. Normally supply is taken to be a curve with positive gradient, and demand a curve with negative gradient. Where they meet, supply = demand, and that gives the market price. And the market volume.

What is likely to happen with press furore and FUD about the housing market is that prospective buyers will tend to wait, since they are being told that prices will drop more. That, together with would-be buyers who now can not get a big enough mortgage, shifts the demand curve left.

For a given supply curve, that means that the market price goes down, and so does the market volume.

It does not necessarily mean that the price of any given house changes at all: it could simply be that some houses do not now sell, when they would have done a year ago.

The whole concept of supply and demand only works if some possible sales do not take place because no buyer and seller agree on this particular item. It is not correct to say that supply exceeds demand (or vice versa) in an economic sense. It may do in an aspirational sense - some would-be sellers wish that a buyer would come along at the price they want - but that is not a description of the market.

LittlestHobbo
6th August 2008, 14:37
"Supply" and "demand" are not fixed numbers; each is a function of price. Normally supply is taken to be a curve with positive gradient, and demand a curve with negative gradient. Where they meet, supply = demand, and that gives the market price. And the market volume.

What is likely to happen with press furore and FUD about the housing market is that prospective buyers will tend to wait, since they are being told that prices will drop more. That, together with would-be buyers who now can not get a big enough mortgage, shifts the demand curve left.

For a given supply curve, that means that the market price goes down, and so does the market volume.

It does not necessarily mean that the price of any given house changes at all: it could simply be that some houses do not now sell, when they would have done a year ago.

The whole concept of supply and demand only works if some possible sales do not take place because no buyer and seller agree on this particular item. It is not correct to say that supply exceeds demand (or vice versa) in an economic sense. It may do in an aspirational sense - some would-be sellers wish that a buyer would come along at the price they want - but that is not a description of the market.


that makes quite alot of sense, but... when someone needs to sell a house as will probably happen shortly alot more sales will be realised. As there will be fewer buyers than sellers you'd expect prices to drop as sellers compete to atract the smaller pool of buyers.

In economic terms this negates the aspirational argument as wants become needs.

Old Greg
6th August 2008, 14:38
Only hindsight will tell if you actually end up better off, trying to call the bottom will be likened to catching falling knives. I guess the declines is likely to have some way to go so you can probably improve your position. When we last moved in 1991 we sold a house in Middlesex @ 96k. Bought one in Somerset @ 205,000. This subsequently dropped to probably 180,000 (by which time the one we sold was probably about 85k).

About 1 year before when we considered moving the house we sold was probably worth 115k. The house we actually bought was marketed at 350,000 and had an offer of 325,000 turned down.

Cost to change therefore reduced from 250k ish to 110k ish (and at the absolute trough would have been 100k ish).

The point of this? The tendency is that when the recovery starts it has always tended to be strong. If you are still looking to buy a bigger house then wait until there is blood in the streets and only those who would be regarded as insane are buying. This is probably as close as you'll get to calling the bottom.

Good luck.

Agreed - not going to try to call the bottom - when we see something that we really like for the money we want to pay, we'll buy. But I think we'll end up with something better for our money than if we'd bought in April.

expat
6th August 2008, 15:03
that makes quite alot of sense, but... when someone needs to sell a house as will probably happen shortly alot more sales will be realised. As there will be fewer buyers than sellers you'd expect prices to drop as sellers compete to atract the smaller pool of buyers.

In economic terms this negates the aspirational argument as wants become needs.That's right, I was merely saying that those who would like to sell but don't need to, may not. A shift of the demand curve to the left is the same as a shift downwards; if it is seen as the first, it is called a drop in the market price, if the second, a drop in market volume. Same event, 2 views. Neither means that any individual house has sold for less than it woul have done last year.

ASB
6th August 2008, 15:12
"Supply" and "demand" are not fixed numbers; each is a function of price. Normally supply is taken to be a curve with positive gradient, and demand a curve with negative gradient. Where they meet, supply = demand, and that gives the market price.

...


That is what I was trying to say - but far better put :)

fitzy73
6th August 2008, 15:18
I would say a few of you on here at at classic "denial" stage :laugh

http://www.momentonmoney.com/012808_1540_TheCycleofM1.jpg

LittlestHobbo
6th August 2008, 15:19
That's right, I was merely saying that those who would like to sell but don't need to, may not. A shift of the demand curve to the left is the same as a shift downwards; if it is seen as the first, it is called a drop in the market price, if the second, a drop in market volume. Same event, 2 views. Neither means that any individual house has sold for less than it woul have done last year.

well yes if the supply drops by the same rate as demand then prices would stay the same but volumes would drop, is this what you mean? Surely market volume and market price are different things? My A level economics is a touch rusty - i only lasted a month.

DiscoStu
6th August 2008, 15:27
Interesting figures that are based on ACTUAL SALES registered at the Land Registry from UpMy Street and are a couple of months behind for obvious reasons:



Property market in May 2008


We use property sales from the Land Registry & Registers of Scotland to create an average property price for each region, and compare this against the average in the previous month - as above - and year.

London: +0.8%; +0.3%
South East: +0.0%; +3.0%
East: +0.9%; +3.3%
E Midlands: +1.1%; +0.3%
North East: -2.4%; -1.3%
North West: -0.5%; +1.7%
South West: -2.0%; -0.8%

Wales: +0.6%; -0.7%
W Midlands: +0.5%; -0.5%
Yorkshire: +0.9%; +1.2%
Scotland: +1.4%; +12.2%
Edinburgh: -1.8%; +9.6%
Glasgow: +4.6%; -17.3%


(% changes to average price - previous month, then year)


In my area it shows an increase of 3% in the year to May..... mo massive crash at all.... and Scotland is UP 12.2% over the year !!! :banana:

I've highlighted the pertinent points. How long does it take to sell a house? 3/4/5/6 months?

So in reality you're looking at sales that reflect prices from the end of 2007 / beginning of 2008. I'd hardly call your figures current...

Cyberman
6th August 2008, 20:44
I've highlighted the pertinent points. How long does it take to sell a house? 3/4/5/6 months?

So in reality you're looking at sales that reflect prices from the end of 2007 / beginning of 2008. I'd hardly call your figures current...




I thought with HIPS that houses now sell quicker or have our 'clever' government implemented yet another failing system ?
The figures are not mine either... they are the best available because they are from the Land Registry and based on actual selling prices. We can safely blame the lack of current figures on public sector bureaucracy. :rolleyes:

ctdctd
6th August 2008, 20:59
I thought with HIPS that houses now sell quicker or have our 'clever' government implemented yet another failing system ?
The figures are not mine either... they are the best available because they are from the Land Registry and based on actual selling prices. We can safely blame the lack of current figures on public sector bureaucracy. :rolleyes:

:laugh:laugh:laughHe made a joke - didn't he?

Bagpuss
6th August 2008, 21:09
Demand is a function of supply, the money supply. That dries up and demand dries up. If Supply of housing remains constant or even reduces, as the money supply contracts so do prices.

JamieMoles
6th August 2008, 21:35
:laugh:laugh:laughHe made a joke - didn't he?

Homes with HIPS are selling quicker on average. The problem is that the market is only currently supporting cash buyers or buyers with a fat deposit.

When it eventually picks up, the value of the HIP will be clearer.

Cyberman
6th August 2008, 22:59
Homes with HIPS are selling quicker on average. The problem is that the market is only currently supporting cash buyers or buyers with a fat deposit.

When it eventually picks up, the value of the HIP will be clearer.



Figures released last week showed that up to 30% of house sales do not have a HIP even though the law dictates that they should, and most HIPS appear very late on in the transaction. Most sellers indicated that buyers did not ask to see a HIP in any case. So they really are a waste of time!!

Will HMG fine sellers that have no HIP ? Another nice revenue raiser perhaps. :rolleyes:

expat
7th August 2008, 07:52
well yes if the supply drops by the same rate as demand then prices would stay the same but volumes would drop, is this what you mean? Surely market volume and market price are different things? My A level economics is a touch rusty - i only lasted a month.I am saying that the market mechanism of supply and demand is not the correct way to describe the aspects of the current situation that people are mostly interested in. I am not for a moment suggesting that the situation for someone with a house to sell is as rosy as it was last year. But saying simply that supply "exceeds" demand is not useful since it pretends to use the economic theory, when in fact this description is meaningless in terms of the theory.

You are right that if the supply drops by the same rate as demand then prices would stay the same but volumes would drop (remembering that both supply and demand are curves, not single numbers). More likely is that supply will be unchanged, while demand drops. The result will be that the intersection between the 2 curves moves left (lower price) and down (lower volume). Which of these (lower price, or lower volume) seems the better description would depend on:
1. how steep the supply curve is at that point,
2. whether you've got a house to sell, and
3. whether you've got an article to write.

Among the interesting consequences are:
1. the whole point of the supply-and-demand analysis is that neither curve is obliged to change as a result of the other curve changing: it is the intersection that changes.
2. what an unchanging supply curve represents in real life is no individual would-be seller budging on price, but settling for not selling instead. I suspect this will happen a lot, to the disappointment of many would-be buyers who are being told that prices are tumbling, but still can't find the cheap house that they want.
3. as long as the government flaps around trying to be seen to be doing something, but only ever touches the demand and not the supply, they will not succeed in getting everone on the housing ladder; or even a single extra person, indeed.

LittlestHobbo
7th August 2008, 09:04
Thanks thats now clear as a crystal ball... I always found abstracting the theory a toughy, it almost seemed like you'd start at point a in your understanding confuse yourself for a while, get to point b at which point you'd realise that point b was just a different way of describing point a.

Anyway as for 3) i think there are 1000's of new homes in our area, Pub gardens now have blocks of flats in the middle of them, larger homes have sold the gardens and now have at least 3 new neighbours and most villages round this way appear to have some pretty unattractive new housing complexes on the outskirts. Not to mention the city high rise 2 bedroom flat horrors..

I'm too young to remember, but was there a housing shortage at the end of the 80's early 90's. I remember lots of new estates being built, and discussions on the news about modern day habits of divorce and marrying later etc etc...

Was there then a glut of housing stock by the end of the 90's recession? It does appear that history may be repeating itself...over leaverage of both banks and consumers combining with inflatory preassures.

My prediction for the future, a wealth correction and solar power will get us out of this one...