I have been underneath a fair few hurricanes in my time and while watching recent Katrina events unfold we need to question the following
Why was a mandatory evacuation not issued on Friday when all global and hurricane forecast models where showing a Mississippi Delta landfall. The mandatory evac was issued too late on the Sunday (hurricane made landfall on the Monday. Even the National Hurricane Centre had New Orleans as a close brush by Saturday.
Why were resources not pre-staged inland ready to move as soon as the winds died down – this has always been the case with hurricanes that I have been in.
FACT! The disaster in New Orleans is separate to the effects of the hurricane along the Louisiana coastline. We are looking at two separate disasters here. The levees in N.O. were going to fail one day… weather by hurricane storm surge from Lake Pontchatrain, by an earth quake or just bad maintance..
There was no reason for people to remain in New Orleans, many have said that they survived Hurricane Camille in 1969 and would ride this out. – Camille killed more people last Monday the she did in 1969.
NWS deperment budgest have been cut big time over the last few years - since 9/11 in fact.
It is near impossible to build levee’s that could survive a CAT 3 plus hurricane.
My forecast for the overall death toll is not the 10,000 that is being put about. Along the LA and MS coastline – given that there was CAT5 storm surge then I would think around 250-500 (again it all depends on who got out)
For New Orleans NO ONE knows just yet – but it will not be in the 1000’s
Meanwhile - there are tropical devlopments East of Florida and the remanents of Hurricane Maria will cross near to the UK in about six days time.
Why was a mandatory evacuation not issued on Friday when all global and hurricane forecast models where showing a Mississippi Delta landfall. The mandatory evac was issued too late on the Sunday (hurricane made landfall on the Monday. Even the National Hurricane Centre had New Orleans as a close brush by Saturday.
Why were resources not pre-staged inland ready to move as soon as the winds died down – this has always been the case with hurricanes that I have been in.
FACT! The disaster in New Orleans is separate to the effects of the hurricane along the Louisiana coastline. We are looking at two separate disasters here. The levees in N.O. were going to fail one day… weather by hurricane storm surge from Lake Pontchatrain, by an earth quake or just bad maintance..
There was no reason for people to remain in New Orleans, many have said that they survived Hurricane Camille in 1969 and would ride this out. – Camille killed more people last Monday the she did in 1969.
NWS deperment budgest have been cut big time over the last few years - since 9/11 in fact.
It is near impossible to build levee’s that could survive a CAT 3 plus hurricane.
My forecast for the overall death toll is not the 10,000 that is being put about. Along the LA and MS coastline – given that there was CAT5 storm surge then I would think around 250-500 (again it all depends on who got out)
For New Orleans NO ONE knows just yet – but it will not be in the 1000’s
Meanwhile - there are tropical devlopments East of Florida and the remanents of Hurricane Maria will cross near to the UK in about six days time.
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