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2009 to be "Five warmest years on record"

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    2009 to be "Five warmest years on record"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...et-Office.html

    Last week, as Britain shivered in sub-zero temperatures, the Met Office predicted that 2009 would be one of ''the five warmest years on record''.

    This statement entertained various US climate experts, such as Dr Roger Pielke Sr of Colorado University, who recalled how last September the Met Office forecast that this winter in the UK would be ''milder than average'', just before we enjoyed the coldest autumn and winter for decades.

    Dr Pielke also recalled the Met Office's prediction two years ago that 2007 would be globally ''the warmest year on record'', beating the ''peak'' year of 1998 (see the Watts Up With That website).

    Even as they made that prediction, temperatures began their steepest plunge since they toppled off that 1998 highpoint, dropping by nearly 0.7C – equivalent to the entire net warming of the 20th century.

    The reason why US scientists take a particular interest in the forecasting skills of the UK Met Office is that, through its Hadley Centre, its temperature data are one of the four official sources on which the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases all those projections of global warming which have the Western world's politicians under such a spell.

    The Met Office, which played a key part in setting up the IPCC, has long since abandoned any pretence that it is an impartial scientific body when it comes to promoting its favourite cause of man-made climate change.

    As the Met Office's website boasts, its ''world-leading expertise'' enables it to provide ''an understanding of the future through risk analysis and long-range forecasting''. It stages seminars to equip ''professionals in Government and the public sector'' to ''dispel scepticism about climate change in your organisation''.

    It is just a pity that our Met Office's comically consistent inability to predict weather even a few weeks ahead (let alone a century hence) is beginning to make it an international laughing stock.


    #2
    I predict that the weather will be a bit nippy today, followed by some even nippier weather tonight. The weather will continue to be nippy, on average, for months to come, but the climate will warm significantly around June. Doomed.

    Comment


      #3
      I hope it is hot. then I can be smug about my air conditioning at home instead of

      Comment


        #4
        I'm betting that cretinous article is by Cristopher Booker? His MO is clear.
        Hard Brexit now!
        #prayfornodeal

        Comment


          #5
          I was doing a gig with the folks who put some of the storage in for the (at the time) new computer at the met office a few years back. There was a major hardware outage which meant they couldn't run any of their models and couldn't produce a forecast....and had to release flowery statements saying words to the effect of "could be cloudy, but you may get some sun - you may experience some rain but not everyone will and you may have a dry day".

          ....it suddenly struck me that that is pretty much a perfect description of most weather forecasts anyway!!
          Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God? - Epicurus

          Comment


            #6
            By Dennis Avery in the Canada Free Press

            “2008 will be the hottest year in a century:” The Old Farmers’ Almanac, September 11, 2008, Hurricanes, Arctic Ice, Coral, Drinking water, Aspen skiing

            We’re now well into the earth’s third straight harsher winter-but in late 2007 it was still hard to forget 22 straight years of global warming from 1976-1998. So the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted 2008 would be the hottest year in the last 100.

            But sunspots had been predicting major cooling since 2000, and global temperatures turned downward in early 2007. The sunspots have had a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s thermometers since 1860. Today’s temperatures are about on a par with 1940. For 2008, the Almanac hired a new climatologist, Joe D’Aleo, who says the declining sunspots and the cool phase of the Pacific Ocean predict 25-30 years of cooler temperatures for the planet.

            “You could potentially sail, kayak or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice . . . is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs, June, 2008.

            Soon after this prediction, a huge Russian icebreaker got trapped in the thick ice of the Northwest Passage for a full week. The Arctic ice hadn’t melted in 2007, it got blown into warmer southern waters. Now it’s back. (Reference)

            Remember too the Arctic has its own 70-year climate cycle. Polish climatologist Rajmund Przbylak says “the highest temperatures since the beginning of instrumental observation occurred clearly in the 1930s” based on more than 40 Arctic temperature stations.

            (This uneducated prediction may have been the catalyst for Lewis Pugh and his absurd kayak stunt that failed miserably - Anthony)

            “Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”

            Tim Flannery was named Australia’s Man of the Year in 2007-for predicting that Australian cities will run out of water. He predicted Perth would become the “first 21st century ghost city,’ and that Sydney would be out of water by 2007. Today however, Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled. Andrew Bolt of the Melbourne Herald-Sun reminds us Australia is truly a land of long droughts and flooding rains.

            “Hurricane Effects Will Only Get Worse.” Live Science, September 19, 2008.

            So wrote the on-line tech website Live Science, but the number of Atlantic hurricanes 2006-2008 has been 22 percent below average, with insured losses more than 50 percent below average. The British Navy recorded more than twice as many major land-falling Caribbean hurricanes in the last part of the Little Ice Age (1700-1850) as during the much-warmer last half of the 20th century.

            “Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.

            In 2006, Dr. Hoegh-Guldberg warned that high temperatures might kill 30-40 percent of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef “within a month.” In 2007, he said global warming temperatures were bleaching [potentially killing] the reef.

            But, in 2008, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network said climate change had not damaged the “well-managed” reef in the four years since its last report. Veteran diver Ben Cropp said that in 50 years he’d seen no heat damage to the reef at all. “The only change I’ve seen has been the result of over-fishing, pollution, too many tourists or people dropping anchors on the reef,” he said.

            No More Skiing? “Climate Change and Aspen,” Aspen, CO city-funded study, June, 2007.

            Aspen’s study predicted global warming would change the climate to resemble hot, dry Amarillo, Texas. But in 2008, European ski resorts opened a month early, after Switzerland recorded more October snow than ever before. Would-be skiers in Aspen had lots of winter snow-but a chill factor of 18 below zero F. kept them at their fireplaces instead of on the slopes.

            *Sources:

            Predictions of 25-30 year cooling due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Scafetta and West, 2006, “Phenomenological Solar Signature in 400 Years of Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature Record,” Geophysical Research Letters.

            Arctic Warmer in the 1930s: R. Przybylak, 2000, “Temporal and Spatial Variation of Surface Air Temperature over the Period of Instrumental Observation in the Arctic,” International Journal of Climatology 20.

            British Navy records of Caribbean hurricanes 1700-1850: J.B. Elsner et al., 2000, “Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity,” Journal of Climate 13.

            Predictions of coral loss: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science, Vol. 318, 2007. Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2008, issued by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, Nov., 2008.

            Aspen climate change study: Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Potential Impacts and Responses, Aspen Global Change Institute, June, 2007.
            (1) Reader Feedback | Click here to get Canada Free Press in your email
            Dennis T. Avery, is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute in Washington. Dennis is the Director for Global Food Issues (What’s New at CGFI? | Center for Global Food Issues). He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State.

            Comment


              #7
              Give it up Dim. You're too stupid to understand the complexities of climate science and thus gullible to all the special interest bulltulip going around.

              HTH
              Hard Brexit now!
              #prayfornodeal

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                Give it up Dim. You're too stupid to understand the complexities of climate science and thus gullible to all the special interest bulltulip going around.

                HTH
                Anyone who dares question the "science" around the unquestionable mantra that the World is warming due to man-made CO2 is simply shot down with the "it's too complex for plebs".

                Shame the climate records don't match the climate models any longer, and the "increased CO2 makes a wamer planet" mantra is no longer shouted from the rooftops.

                Pretty obvious, except for the terminally gullible like yourself.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
                  Anyone who dares question the "science" around the unquestionable mantra that the World is warming due to man-made CO2 is simply shot down with the "it's too complex for plebs".

                  Shame the climate records don't match the climate models any longer, and the "increased CO2 makes a wamer planet" mantra is no longer shouted from the rooftops.

                  Pretty obvious, except for the terminally gullible like yourself.

                  There, there! The men in white coats will be along shortly - they're dealing with atW at the moment.
                  Hard Brexit now!
                  #prayfornodeal

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                    Give it up Dim. You're too stupid to understand the complexities of climate science and thus gullible to all the special interest bulltulip going around.

                    HTH
                    Isn't that true of everyone?

                    Comment

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