Is success in life more a matter of luck than anything else?

[sasguru]

The older I get the more I think this is true. We are subject to luck from the moment we get born (genetic inheritance, wealth of parents etc) and the various permutations of what could happen after that are infinite.

I speak as someone who has had more than their fair share of serendipitious events.

Re-reading Taleb's book "The Black Swan" only confirms my opinion.

[shaunbhoy]

No, success is NOT more a matter of luck than anything else, to answer your question. However, luck is certainly involved.
I would put hard work higher up than luck, and I speak as someone that has made it his life's work to avoid it.

[Manic]

Someone said something similar to me Friday, that you make your own luck. My performance on the golf course somewhat fails to support that argument.

[sasguru]

I would put hard work higher up than luck, and I speak as someone that has made it his life's work to avoid it.

The vast majority of people in the world work very hard for very little. So that can't be right. If you happen to be born in Zimbabwe, for example, your hard work would probably not make an iota of difference, because of your bad luck in having been born there.

[Moscow Mule]

I'm in the "you make your own luck" category. Most of the times where I could have been perceived to be lucky, I can trace it back to a decision I made or a general behavior I follow.

SAS, by reading the Black Swan, you've already made yourself more likely to benefit from any unforeseen (generally) events and hence "more lucky".

[Bagpuss]

Certainly in the BTL boom there were many lucky people who joined the pyramid scheme and profited. Many of those are probably bancrupt now though as they wouldn't have had the wit to know when to leave. The really astute ones weren't following the herd, and therefore were less 'lucky'.

Many things in life are a gamble, you win and you appear clever, you lose and you appear stupid. Of course intelligent people will minimise risks, but nobody is immune to the vagaries of fortune IMHO.

It's true as Mitch said that fortunate outcomes can breed arrogance. Interesting times ahead, where a lot of arrogant people will have a reality check.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

I reckon you could argue it's all luck. I might have been more successful if I'd tried harder, but if tried harder, I wouldn't be me. I'm quite happy with my lot so that's lucky and successful in a way.

[sasguru]

It's true as Mitch said that fortunate outcomes can breed arrogance. Interesting times ahead, where a lot of arrogant people will have a reality check.

Indeed. Taleb makes exactly that point in the "Black Swan" about some in the financial industry.
In one of his footnotes he explicity says that Fannie Mae is "sitting on a time bomb". This was back in 2006 and he was proved absolutely right.

I think rudimentary probability theory and statistics should be mandatory from primary school. It would certainly have benefited some over-trained but under-educated financiers.

[BrilloPad]

Interesting article on Genius in the week in early December. Almost all Canadian Ice Hockey players are born in first 3 months of year. As they are the biggest lads for 8/9/10 years old on 31st Dec. So they get all the coaching.

In effect it concludes that genius does not exist. You can be good : but it is the coaching you get and the times you live in that make the difference.

[shaunbhoy]

The vast majority of people in the world work very hard for very little.

Oh no they don't. The vast majority do as little as they can get away with. It is just that from our cossetted perspective many unfortunate souls appear to be working very hard. It is all relative.