Bucking the trend?

[PM-Junkie]

Given the almost universal doom and gloom that's around at the moment and how everyone saying how terrible 2009 is going to be (sentiment not helped by that utterly ridiculous logo that the beeb use when discussing economics), I wonder what effect "news that is bad but not as bad as was expected" might have.

Example. The figures released by Next and M&S yesterday were taken as bad, but not as bad as they could have been. And Sainsbury's sales for the whole of Q4 (not just xmas) rose 4% from 2007 Q4.

My point is, if announcements on Q4 earnings continue in this vein, I wonder if and at what point people might say "hang on, this might not be as bad as we thought"?

Sorry to post something that isn't completely doom and gloom. I never was a sheep

'tis just a thought.

[BlasterBates]

...or if its worse? what would happen then?

[PM-Junkie]

Yes...how dumb of me posting something other than saying how terrible everything is.

I don't know what I was thinking, sorry.

[Doggy Styles]

My point is, if announcements on Q4 earnings continue in this vein, I wonder if and at what point people might say "hang on, this might not be as bad as we thought"?

It will be worse than we thought.

It's certainly worse than the government thought. In the November PBR (or whatever it was called) they predicted us returning to growth in the second half of this year.

[ace00]

Don't forget the impending ice age.

[Solidec]

Businesses that have gone into administration have either been lame ducks for years or have been effected by said lame ducks.

Retail figures you mentioned are actually extremely healthy all things considering. When the UK economy contracts by upwards of 1%, then pre tax profits down only 4-7% is staggeringly impressive for retail imo.

Yes it was technically good news I reckon. Some sectors will come out of this downturn (hate that phrase, its a bloody recession, calle a spade a spade Mr Brown) very nicely.

Just think the few customers that Woolworths DID have will now shop at your local supermarket. Savvi customers will go to HMV as the last major bastion of entertainment media outlet on the highstreet.

I prefer to think of the recession as getting rid off the rot in the economy, and reinforcing the good practice of prudent financial management in households. Most people forgot how to be thrifty through the nineties and noughties.

All in all I am looking forward to a better UKPLC once the recession has run most of its course. In the meantime, batten down the hatches, watch your expenditure and fight on.

[DimPrawn]

Businesses that have gone into administration have either been lame ducks for years or have been effected by said lame ducks.

Retail figures you mentioned are actually extremely healthy all things considering. When the UK economy contracts by upwards of 1%, then pre tax profits down only 4-7% is staggeringly impressive for retail imo.

Yes it was technically good news I reckon. Some sectors will come out of this downturn (hate that phrase, its a bloody recession, calle a spade a spade Mr Brown) very nicely.

Just think the few customers that Woolworths DID have will now shop at your local supermarket. Savvi customers will go to HMV as the last major bastion of entertainment media outlet on the highstreet.

I prefer to think of the recession as getting rid off the rot in the economy, and reinforcing the good practice of prudent financial management in households. Most people forgot how to be thrifty through the nineties and noughties.

All in all I am looking forward to a better UKPLC once the recession has run most of its course. In the meantime, batten down the hatches, watch your expenditure and fight on.

Solidec for PM.

[Solidec]

They would never vote for me, I am not scottish, I am not God-fearing and my Eugenics programme is a bit too radical

[thelace]

3 months into Contracting and my business is doing very nicely thank you very much!

Solidec is of course correct! Many of these businesses have been on the verge of bancrupcy for years, and if a 1% downturn is enough to put them over the edge, they were hardly stable to begin with.

Zavvi put all of its eggs in one basket with regards to suppliers doh! But they weren't the only ones, WHSmith and Borders (amongst others) are struggling to find stock too.

It is a tough world out there, but frankly, it always has been.

[Doggy Styles]

I'm with you there Solidec.

My problem is that it's a bit too drastic, happening all at once rather than by continual evolution.

But maybe it's a good thing because, as well as lame duck companies, it should banish that lame duck Labour party to oblivion for a long time too.