Unemployment down - Out of work rises

[DimPrawn]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4333688.stm

Unemployment fell by 7,000 between June and August to 1.42 million, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This leaves the number of people in work at a record high of 28.76 million, the highest total since records began in 1971.

However, the number of people out of work and claiming benefits rose for the eighth month in a row in September.

Claimant count unemployment rose by 8,200 to 875,500.

The monthly figure was more than double than predicted by analysts, while August's rise was revised higher to 2,700 from 1,600 previously.

The figure was also 61,700 higher than at the start of the year, the ONS said.

Jobs continued to be lost in manufacturing, down 99,000 in the three months to August compared with a year earlier, reaching a record low of 3.18 million.



WTF?

The number of people out of work is falling, the number of people out of work is rising all against a continued backdrop of lost jobs.

To my mind the whole set of figures are complete bulltulip.

[wc2]

Add 1000's of Immigrants comming into the UK.

That makes up the shortfall.

[hyperD]

To my mind the whole set of figures are complete bulltulip.

Add immigration, people drifting out of society, claimant fraud, changing unemployment reporting criteria, temp workers, visas, false jobs, black market, ....

.... oh yes, and don't forget: 2.7 million on paid-for-holiday, sorry, incapacity benefits.

So if you want a proper figure for UK unemployment, try this back of envelope calculation:

Unemployment: 1.4m
Incapacity bens: 1.3m (David Blunkett reckons that about half of the 2.7m people "on the sick" are capable of working).
---------------------
Out of work: 2.7m

Total workforce: 28.79m (in work) + 2.7m = 31.49

% out of work: ~9%

So next time you hear Bliar talk about "...lowest unemployment since the dinosaurs...", you know better.

[planetit]

Out of work: 2.7m

Back of an envelope calculation indeed. The official figure for "out of work" is actually 7.91 million, but nice of you to spin the figure a bit lower. Tony would be proud of you.

[DimPrawn]

Next you'll be telling me the economy is not in its best shape for 30 years, and that house prices aren't going up 20% next yr and that there are no WMD in the middle east!

[Not So Wise]

To my mind the whole set of figures are complete bulltulip.

New Labour are masters at making the key headline stats work for them, either by changeing what is being counted (aka reclasify unemployed job seekers) or change how the whole calculation is done

Prime example why bodys like the office of national statistics should not be under political control. These days if you want to know wht is really going on with the country you need to get the data from the ONS and look at every componant calculation and recalculate the total yourself.

[mcquiggd]

Send all the unemployed back where they came from!


Oops, thats me then

[threaded]

Send all the unemployed back where they came from

They do that one in Denmark, the plod turn up on your doorstep, allow you 5 minutes to pack a bag, escort you to the nearest border.

[hyperD]

Back of an envelope calculation indeed. The official figure for "out of work" is actually 7.91 million, but nice of you to spin the figure a bit lower. Tony would be proud of you.

That seems high - where did you get that figure from?

[Joe Bloggs]

oh yes, and don't forget: 2.7 million on paid-for-holiday, sorry, incapacity benefits

Apparently the Netherlands is the place to be for such things, where there's still nearly 1m receiving incapacity benefits in a population of just 16m.

A quick back of the envelope calculation gives:

938,000 (incapacity ben) / 16,407,491 (NL pop) = 5.7%
or 60,441,457 (pop UK) * 5.7% = 3.45 m

Oh, and it's not a fixed rate which gets paid, but can be up to 80% of previous income.

http://www.rnw.nl/globalperspective2/html/rnw.html