Doomed

[suityou01]

Buckle up guys. This is going to be rough. I've been banging on and on about a new crash this Autumn since March. Now Bob Shawadiwadi agrees.

Linky

Bob Janjuah, chief credit strategist at RBS, is predicting that we’re heading for another stock market crash this autumn.

Before the bulls cry “doomsayer!”, let’s note that at a similar time last year Bob Janjuah successfully predicted the stock market crash for the autumn of 2008

[Menelaus]

Buckle up guys. This is going to be rough. I've been banging on and on about a new crash this Autumn since March. Now Bob Shawadiwadi agrees.

Linky

*** Heads up. Possible conflict of interest alert. Please read this post with that in mind. ***

I know Bob and have worked with him in the past (I'm a quant).

Would I trust his estimate here? Yes, I would.

Did he miss the 2007 crash in UK residential property valuations (successfully predicted by Menelaus)? Yes, he did.

[gordonbrown]

He was wrong then and he is wrong again now. I have steered the British economy through the choppy waters of the world downturn. As promised, we are well-placed for the recovery.

[PM-Junkie]

Buckle up guys. This is going to be rough. I've been banging on and on about a new crash this Autumn since March. Now Bob Shawadiwadi agrees.

Linky

You must have been very relieved to have found such a report...things were starting to look a little bright for a while there - it must have been dreadful for you.

The fact is, nobody knows. I've thought for months that the recession would be W shaped, and have said so here on many occasions. Now I am not so sure. You can equally point to factors like the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey revealing that optimism within the manufacturing sector is going up and that 27% of the 560 companies polled are increasing output, and that's a big increase on 3/6 months ago. That is a classic sign of a recession coming to an end. Equally you can point to factors such as the Baltic Exchange index showing that things are about to get a lot worse.

You can line up just as many indicators that show things may slowly get better from around May/June 2009 as those that show things have a lot further to drop. Lots of things have never happened before (such as so many countries adopting QE policies) so this economic environment is unique - so people are just guessing (after all, that's what economists do!).

My advice is always to look a little deeper into who is issuing the report. Think about it - the chief credit strategist for an organisation that is being creamed in the media for not issuing enough credit, and the report says that things are going to get a lot worse for banks and consumers alike. Hmmm, there's handy for them

[suityou01]

He was wrong then and he is wrong again now. I have steered the British economy through the choppy waters of the world downturn. As promised, we are well-placed for the recovery.

See, doomed.

[suityou01]

You must have been very relieved to have found such a report...things were starting to look a little bright for a while there - it must have been dreadful for you.

Over the moon.

The fact is, nobody knows.

I've been banging on and on about a new crash this Autumn since March.

HTH

[SantaClaus]

The questions you got to ask are:

Why is the stock market going up whilst a 1/3rd of you are on the bench?
How can companies be doing so well when they are laying off staff left, right and centre?
Why is the property market going up when no-one can get a mortgage?
Why would sterling rise when the government are printing money?

My theory is that shares are currently transfering from smart money to the average punter in the street. The market has also been able to get away with big up-moves because there is low trading volume due to the summer holidays. Therefore, moves are magnified.

When the traders are all back at their seats in September, watch the market take a dive.

[NickFitz]

I wonder if any interesting conclusions may be drawn from the fact that the OP doesn't respond to posts made in reply by those known to be actual people, yet has much to say in response to known sockpuppets.

Seriously, how bored are you to have to spend your Saturday night starting up a conversation with your various non-existent selves, yet refusing to respond to actual, real, other people?

[suityou01]

I wonder if any interesting conclusions may be drawn from the fact that the OP doesn't respond to posts made in reply by those known to be actual people, yet has much to say in response to known sockpuppets.
Seriously, how bored are you to have to spend your Saturday night starting up a conversation with your various non-existent selves, yet refusing to respond to actual, real, other people?

Can I have a list please? It's hard to know who is real and who is a sockie. Chetty was obvious, others are not. This is the first time you've posted in this thread so how have I ignored you?

I try to find the time to educate the lower mindsets on here, but you lot drive me to drink. If it wasn't for me and Sasguru, this forum would be total bollox.

HTH

[suityou01]

The questions you got to ask are:

Why is the stock market going up whilst a 1/3rd of you are on the bench?
How can companies be doing so well when they are laying off staff left, right and centre?
Why is the property market going up when no-one can get a mortgage?
Why would sterling rise when the government are printing money?

My theory is that shares are currently transfering from smart money to the average punter in the street. The market has also been able to get away with big up-moves because there is low trading volume due to the summer holidays. Therefore, moves are magnified.

When the traders are all back at their seats in September, watch the market take a dive.

Allegedly, at the Bilderberg group meeting they decided to reinflate the markets and crash it badly end of Q3. I agree, these green shoots don't look right. Just wait until the effects of QE kick in.

I figure if a share is now worth £10, from £5, and the value of £10 is only what £5 was worth then it's "improvement" is bogus.

So the markets have reinflated from the trillion dollar bailouts, yet the same problems still exist, and when the dawning of realisation hits the markets it all goes titsy again.