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SantaClaus
23rd October 2009, 09:34
Oh dear (TM)

You mean 33 economists may not have got it right? Shock, horror! :laugh

U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in Longest Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoJTUKcx.E9A

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. gross domestic product unexpectedly dropped in the third quarter as enduring slumps in services, manufacturing and construction kept the economy mired in its longest recession on record. The pound tumbled.

Gross domestic product dropped 0.4 percent from the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. None forecast a contraction. The economy has now shrunk over six quarters, the most since records began in 1955.

The figures add to Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s woes as he struggles to cement a recovery in time for a general election due by June and suggest Bank of England officials may extend their bond-purchase program on Nov. 5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said today he stands by his forecast that the economy will start growing this year.

“The fact that the economy is still contracting despite the huge amount of policy stimulus supports our view that the recovery will be a long, slow process,” said Vicky Redwood, U.K. economist at Capital Economics Ltd in London. “An extension to QE at the upcoming November meeting now looks even more likely.”

The pound fell 1 percent to $1.6460 after the figures. The yield on the two-year U.K. government bond slipped 5 basis points to 0.87 percent as of 9:51 a.m. in London.

BrilloPad
23rd October 2009, 18:04
I know the economy has contracted 6 quarters in a row : but what is the total drop?

HairyArsedBloke
23rd October 2009, 18:20
I know the economy has contracted 6 quarters in a row : but what is the total drop?

Here you go: ONS - GDP and Unemployment
Current and previous recessions compared (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=2294)



Quarter three of 2009 was the fifth consecutive quarter of steep contraction, following a small decline in quarter two of 2008. In the latest period GDP was 5.9 percentage points below its pre-recession level. This compares to equivalent figures of 2.5 percentage points for the same period in the 1990s recession and 4.7 percentage points in the 1980s recession.

BrilloPad
23rd October 2009, 18:51
Here you go: ONS - GDP and Unemployment
Current and previous recessions compared (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=2294)

Thank you kind Sir. You are top banana. I was predicting a total drop of 8% so looks like I will be out......

SantaClaus
23rd October 2009, 19:59
Thank you kind Sir. You are top banana. I was predicting a total drop of 8% so looks like I will be out......

Sorry Brillo, been busy this afternoon.

I do hope that you wont be out!

RichardCranium
23rd October 2009, 21:50
Here you go: ONS - GDP and Unemployment
Current and previous recessions compared (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=2294)F***ty, f***ty, f***ty, f***ty, f*** f*** f***.

Doggy Styles
23rd October 2009, 22:04
F***ty, f***ty, f***ty, f***ty, f*** f*** f***.Is there a * missing in the first few of those? Depends how you pronounce it I suppose.

Doggy Styles
23rd October 2009, 22:10
The figures above say UK GNP has dropped 5.9% since the start of Gordon's recession.

When this reaches 10% it's officially a depression isn't it?

I'm just watching a programme with newsreels from the 1930's depression. Doesn't look like fun. Except Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers - they were good.

threaded
24th October 2009, 07:15
Except Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers - they were good.

Yes, they used to have these dancing competitions, where the last couple dancing were the winners. People would die from exhaustion.

centurian
24th October 2009, 07:38
Thank you kind Sir. You are top banana. I was predicting a total drop of 8% so looks like I will be out......

It ain't over yet... although I doubt it will drop that much. The expected rise in VAT will probably kick start some spending in December that should be enough to push us over the bar.

6% is still a hefty drop though...

HairyArsedBloke
24th October 2009, 09:13
Thank you kind Sir. You are top banana. I was predicting a total drop of 8% so looks like I will be out......

It possibly has fallen that much. These are government figs and subject to 'correction' so as to make them 'look good'.


F***ty, f***ty, f***ty, f***ty, f*** f*** f***.

Indeed.


It ain't over yet... although I doubt it will drop that much. The expected rise in VAT will probably kick start some spending in December that should be enough to push us over the bar.

6% is still a hefty drop though...

Any extra spending in Dec will be taken from Jan / Feb. There is a story going round that VAT isn't going back to 17.5% either; it may be higher (some say a lot higher). However, I think that these figs may have put that plan on hold. I think they may hatch a plan to defer the rise for another quarter and then raise it to 20% or even 25%. (Maybe to come in just after the election?)

centurian
24th October 2009, 09:41
Any extra spending in Dec will be taken from Jan / Feb.

True, but if Q4 shows just 0.1% growth (or even 0% flat), then technically the recession is over, even if Q1 2010 goes back into negative growth again.

If growth occurs in Q4, Gordon's best chance is to call an election in March/April, before people realise it's a false dawn, and also before the 2010 tax rises kick in.


VAT isn't going back to 17.5% either; it may be higher (some say a lot higher).

Didn't the original Treasury plan state this before the spin doctors got hold of it

Addanc
24th October 2009, 17:44
Oh dear (TM)

You mean 33 economists may not have got it right? Shock, horror! :laugh

U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in Longest Slump

Pseudo science. They use dice and chicken entrails.

HTH

Tingles
24th October 2009, 18:11
"If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, it wouldn't be a bad thing."

Peter Lynch