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AtW
1st November 2009, 20:42
Zzzzzzz

:tired

Platypus
1st November 2009, 21:09
SKA blah blah


:tired

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 07:57
After a succesfull week, last week, I am short FTSE again this morning.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 08:12
Where are all you buyers?

Come on PMJunk and Sadguru, stocks are cheap :laugh:laugh:laugh

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 08:16
Where are all you buyers?

Come on PMJunk and Sadguru, stocks are cheap :laugh:laugh:laugh

:wave:

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 08:20
:wave:

Put your money where your mouth is Dim!

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 08:23
Put your money where your mouth is Dim!

:wink

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 09:03
After a succesfull week, last week, I am short FTSE again this morning.

Hello poor boy*



*For that is your destiny.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 09:16
Hello poor boy*



*For that is your destiny.

Hi idiot. So what you trading today then? Lets see you put your money where your mouth is too.

TimberWolf
2nd November 2009, 09:17
Nice DOOMED video here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgrOZbOWjUU) (SFW apart from containing sound obviously)

DiscoStu
2nd November 2009, 09:17
After a succesfull week, last week, I am short FTSE again this morning.

Isn't it up this morning?

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 09:18
Hi idiot. So what you trading today then? Lets see you put your money where your mouth is too.

Unlike you I have money (lots of it). So I may put into the stock market or I may put it into property (which made it in the first place).
What I won't do is gamble it :laugh:laugh


Anyway poor boy, what does the woman in a turban with her crystal ball say today?

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 09:25
Isn't it up this morning?

I could spend all day explaining why charts dont go in straight lines, but this is not a trading 101 lesson.


Unlike you I have money (lots of it). So I may put into the stock market or I may put it into property (which made it in the first place).
What I won't do is gamble it :laugh:laugh


Anyway poor boy, what does the woman in a turban with her crystal ball say today?

SADGuru, you are a complete prat to the highest degree. You really dont have a clue about ANYTHING!

And I am very comfortably well off thank you, because I bought property 20 years ago.

If I was your boss, I would sack you for spending so long on this forum, considering most of it is complete drivel.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 09:28
SADGuru, you are a complete prat to the highest degree. You really dont have a clue about ANYTHING!

.

:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 09:29
And I am very comfortably well off thank you, because I bought property 20 years ago.

.

Not becaiuse of your superior day-trading skills?

:rollin::rollin::rollin::rollin:

administrator
2nd November 2009, 09:32
Enough of the public arguing please, makes you both look like foolish children. If you want to call each names do it by PM please.

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 09:33
Enough of the public arguing please, makes you both look like foolish children. If you want to call each names do it by PM please.

What happened to "sasguru must be nice to people"?

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 09:37
What happened to "sasguru must be nice to people"?

His ego got the better of him.
Apologies Administrator, there arent many people who wind me up on this forum, but Sasguru is an exception to the rule.

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 09:39
His ego got the better of him.
Apologies Administrator, there arent many people who wind me up on this forum, but Sasguru is an exception to the rule.

Admins. Can you please change sasguru's avatar for him.

http://msds.chem.ox.ac.uk/glossary/irritant.jpg

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 09:43
His ego got the better of him.
Apologies Administrator, there arent many people who wind me up on this forum, but Sasguru is an exception to the rule.

I'm not sure why you get wound up?
All I'm saying is that the stock market is random on a day-to-day basis.
If you'd like to debate that in a calm and rational way, bring it on.
It should be an enlightening conversation for most on here.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 09:49
I'm not sure why you get wound up?
All I'm saying is that the stock market is random on a day-to-day basis.
If you'd like to debate that in a calm and rational way, bring it on.
It should be an enlightening conversation for most on here.

I'm happy to debate it in a calm rational way, but your idea of debate is slating and mocking people. Very childish in my opinion.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 09:56
I'm happy to debate it in a calm rational way, but your idea of debate is slating and mocking people. Very childish in my opinion.

Ok I apologise.

Now what evidence do you have that the stock market is non-random for a day-trader?
Why is it that 70% of day-traders are unsuccesful?

Surely if there was a way of behaving in certain circumstances, as you seem to assume, then there would be many more people making a living at it. But then wouldn't that way of behaving by many practitioners cancel any advantages as everyone did the same thing?

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 10:12
Ok I apologise.

Now what evidence do you have that the stock market is non-random for a day-trader?
Why is it that 70% of day-traders are unsuccesful?

Surely if there was a way of behaving in certain circumstances, as you seem to assume, then there would be many more people making a living at it. But then wouldn't that way of behaving by many practitioners cancel any advantages as everyone did the same thing?

Apology accepted.

It's a big, big subject. I've been studying this for years and its not something you can do justice to in one post.

70% of day traders are unsuccessfull because it seems easy at first. There are no rules or framework like in a job or anything else in life. On the surface, it's as easy as pushing a buy or sell button.

I dont know one trader who has "made it" who hasnt blown 3 or 4 accounts to start with. Most people would give up after one or two failures. But the traders who go on to realise their mistakes and that this business is 90% risk management and psychology are the ones who succeed.

The outcome of any one trade IS random. But if you have a system with an edge, you constantly apply it to your trades and eventually that edge pays, a bit like casinos where their edge is 4%.

USing support/resistance is an edge that most banks use. On Fridays FTSE short that I took, there was a very clear level of resistance on the 4hr chart, combined with a 50% fibonacci. That ws my edge.
Today I applied the same method on the FTSE chart and price blew through resistance. I am not bothered, because my money management means I make a hell of a lot more on a winning trade than I risk on a losing trade.

What most people fail to realise is you can have only 40% winners, and aiming for higher reward to risk ratios, you can still make a very good profit.

AlfredJPruffock
2nd November 2009, 10:16
dont know one trader who has "made it" who hasnt blown 3 or 4 accounts to start with. Most people would give up after one or two failures. But the traders who go on to realise their mistakes and that this business is 90% risk management and psychology are the ones who succeed.

Interesting potin.

Would you agree that the psycholgy of Day Trading and Gambling are very very similar ?

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 10:24
dont know one trader who has "made it" who hasnt blown 3 or 4 accounts to start with. Most people would give up after one or two failures. But the traders who go on to realise their mistakes and that this business is 90% risk management and psychology are the ones who succeed.

Interesting potin.

Would you agree that the psycholgy of Day Trading and Gambling are very very similar ?

Yes, they are very similar. And as we know, there are pro gamblers too.

In fact, for tax reasons, I would rather be classed as a gambler :)

Diestl
2nd November 2009, 10:36
Apology accepted.

It's a big, big subject. I've been studying this for years and its not something you can do justice to in one post.

70% of day traders are unsuccessfull because it seems easy at first. There are no rules or framework like in a job or anything else in life. On the surface, it's as easy as pushing a buy or sell button.

I dont know one trader who has "made it" who hasnt blown 3 or 4 accounts to start with. Most people would give up after one or two failures. But the traders who go on to realise their mistakes and that this business is 90% risk management and psychology are the ones who succeed.

The outcome of any one trade IS random. But if you have a system with an edge, you constantly apply it to your trades and eventually that edge pays, a bit like casinos where their edge is 4%.

USing support/resistance is an edge that most banks use. On Fridays FTSE short that I took, there was a very clear level of resistance on the 4hr chart, combined with a 50% fibonacci. That ws my edge.
Today I applied the same method on the FTSE chart and price blew through resistance. I am not bothered, because my money management means I make a hell of a lot more on a winning trade than I risk on a losing trade.

What most people fail to realise is you can have only 40% winners, and aiming for higher reward to risk ratios, you can still make a very good profit.

By the you notice support and resistance, its too late, its 50/50 whether it will hold or not. You have no idea what you are doing and any profit are pure luck. There is no edge, some one could come in to the market at any minute and place a large order that moves prices up or down, through S/R. You will never know when, why. Just like you will never know the outcome of a roulette wheel.

To think you have an edge by using things like Fibonnaci retracements, MA's etc is crazy. If you look at a chart you will see what you want to, if you actually study it and back test, you will see these tools have no predictive value, even when used in confluence.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 10:39
By the you notice support and resistance, its too late, its 50/50 whether it will hold or not. You have no idea what you are doing and any profit are pure luck. There is no edge, some one could come in to the market at any minute and place a large order that moves prices up or down, through S/R. You will never know when, why. Just like you will never know the outcome of a roulette wheel.

Go back and read what I wrote again.

Actually, go and look at a 4hr or daily chart, draw line above/under major swing highs lows. Then you will see what I am talking about

Actual entry into trades at those levels is another discussion.

Diestl
2nd November 2009, 10:43
Go back and read what I wrote again.


Money Managment is just slowing the obliteration of your investment and prolonging the fantasy that you have an edge. Invest your time creating something that people would pay for.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 10:44
Money Managment is just slowing the obliteration of your investment and prolonging the fantasy that you have an edge. Invest your time creating something that people would pay for.

What, like programming trading systems to make someone else rich :laugh

Andy2
2nd November 2009, 10:44
By the you notice support and resistance, its too late, its 50/50 whether it will hold or not. You have no idea what you are doing and any profit are pure luck. There is no edge, some one could come in to the market at any minute and place a large order that moves prices up or down, through S/R. You will never know when, why. Just like you will never know the outcome of a roulette wheel.

To think you have an edge by using things like Fibonnaci retracements, MA's etc is crazy. If you look at a chart you will see what you want to, if you actually study it and back test, you will see these tools have no predictive value, even when used in confluence.

I think Santa's system works because all investment bankers use automated trading systems based on technical analysis, which make it self fulfilling prophecy.

Diestl
2nd November 2009, 10:46
I think Santa's system works because all investment bankers use automated trading systems based on technical analysis, which make it self fulfilling prophecy.

Ah ok, I didnt know that, now we can all get rich!!!!

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 10:51
I think Santa's system works because all investment bankers use automated trading systems based on technical analysis, which make it self fulfilling prophecy.

It works because price has a memory, even going back 10 years.

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 10:53
It works because price has a memory, even going back 10 years.

Eh? Sounds like homeopathy.

Diestl
2nd November 2009, 10:56
It works because price has a memory, even going back 10 years.

I agree that there are some prices like round numbers that have strong reactions but it can be difficult to predict that reaction

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 11:01
I agree that there are some prices like round numbers that have strong reactions but it can be difficult to predict that reaction

Yep, round numbers have a reaction.

Now combine the round numnbers with a level on the higher timeframes where price has rejected 3 times and a fibonacci retracement or two and the odds are stacked much higher in your favour.

Then use a 15minute entry technique to get you into the trade and aggresive risk management to get your risk out of the trade quickly.

Aim for a profit target at least two or three times what you have risked (based again on support/resistance levels).

And only take trades that present the above opportunities, stalking them like a hunter.

And thats how you do it! But of course, with years of practice and a little intuition.

AtW
2nd November 2009, 11:02
Now combine the round numnbers with a level on the higher timeframes where price has rejected 3 times and a fibonacci retracement or two and the odds are stacked much higher in your favour.

:freaky:

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 11:07
:freaky:

Well, I did say it will take more than one post to explain this!

Diestl
2nd November 2009, 11:25
Yep, round numbers have a reaction.

Now combine the round numnbers with a level on the higher timeframes where price has rejected 3 times and a fibonacci retracement or two and the odds are stacked much higher in your favour.

Then use a 15minute entry technique to get you into the trade and aggresive risk management to get your risk out of the trade quickly.

Aim for a profit target at least two or three times what you have risked (based again on support/resistance levels).

And only take trades that present the above opportunities, stalking them like a hunter.

And thats how you do it! But of course, with years of practice and a little intuition.

Sounds like it could work, I suppose if you practised enought you might get a feel for it. I would prefer to tradeon daily charts and let trades run for 2-3 days. A daily pin bar at a extreme high or low. Trouble is you need a few 100k account to make it worth while (if using 1% account risk per trade).

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 11:30
Sounds like it could work, I suppose if you practised enought you might get a feel for it. I would prefer to tradeon daily charts and let trades run for 2-3 days. A daily pin bar at a extreme high or low. Trouble is you need a few 100k account to make it worth while (if using 1% account risk per trade).

Yep, thats why my "bread and butter" trading is on the 15min chart with reference to 4hr levels. 20-30 pip stoplosses rather than 200 pips.

Pinbars are good, but I would rather take that pin before it has formed, when it looks like a solid bearish/bullish candle and with a much smaller stop. That way I can remove the risk from my trade a lot quicker.

OK, thats it from me for now. Got to get back to the charts.

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 11:31
OK, thats it from me for now. Got to get back to the charts.



:spel


Runes

BrilloPad
2nd November 2009, 11:41
Nice piece by Roger Bootle in Telegraph today.

Effectively blames stock market rise on QE. Once QE is reversed stocks are going to fall back.

So thats about 2015 then......

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 11:54
And as we know, there are pro gamblers too.



There are? Name me one.
(I don't count Poker players as there is an element of skill there)

Actually that statement right there suggests to me that you don't understand the nature of probability - you cannot be a pro gambler, say, in a casino because every system in the casino is designed to have an edge for the casino.
If you gamble for long enough in a casino you WILL lose, END OF.
Because the system is designed that way.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 12:06
Yep, round numbers have a reaction.

Now combine the round numnbers with a level on the higher timeframes where price has rejected 3 times and a fibonacci retracement or two and the odds are stacked much higher in your favour.

Then use a 15minute entry technique to get you into the trade and aggresive risk management to get your risk out of the trade quickly.

Aim for a profit target at least two or three times what you have risked (based again on support/resistance levels).

And only take trades that present the above opportunities, stalking them like a hunter.

And thats how you do it! But of course, with years of practice and a little intuition.


You admit to losing money for 4 years and say you made money in the fifth.
And you assume that the change is due to your learning something. But it could be that you made money in the 5th through sheer luck - in fact that is more probable, don't you think?

EternalOptimist
2nd November 2009, 12:19
You admit to losing money for 4 years and say you made money in the fifth.
And you assume that the change is due to your learning something. But it could be that you made money in the 5th through sheer luck - in fact that is more probable, don't you think?

The way he described it, and the way you described it, reminded me of something.

It reminded me of one of those games where there is an element of luck involved like RISK. The skilful players can play for ages and not win, but still be recognised as skilful players Then, given time , they eventually perform better than the average.
Those without skill always blame their luck.

:rolleyes:

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 12:33
There are? Name me one.
(I don't count Poker players as there is an element of skill there)

Actually that statement right there suggests to me that you don't understand the nature of probability - you cannot be a pro gambler, say, in a casino because every system in the casino is designed to have an edge for the casino.
If you gamble for long enough in a casino you WILL lose, END OF.
Because the system is designed that way.

There are countless pro gamblers in the horse racing world - I would say there are the same attached to any sport where there is a betting culture.

Some casino games, such as Roulette, are stacked against the punter but you can win at blackjack if you count cards (in your head - using a computer is illegal).

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 12:43
There are? Name me one.
(I don't count Poker players as there is an element of skill there)

Actually that statement right there suggests to me that you don't understand the nature of probability - you cannot be a pro gambler, say, in a casino because every system in the casino is designed to have an edge for the casino.
If you gamble for long enough in a casino you WILL lose, END OF.
Because the system is designed that way.

There are a number of court cases involving HMRC against Pro gamblers. HMRC tried to claim that winnings were taxable. Are you saying these people werent profitable?

For some games in a casino, the odds are constant, like on Roulette, fruit machines, etc. So yes you will lose and the house will win in the long run.

I am trading when the odds are in my favour, I pick a moment in time when I can be the house!

IF you dont understand that, I suggest you read tghe "pop psychology" trading book by Mark Douglas.

Anyway, I am not going to spell this out for you, do some of the homework yourself.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 12:44
You admit to losing money for 4 years and say you made money in the fifth.
And you assume that the change is due to your learning something. But it could be that you made money in the 5th through sheer luck - in fact that is more probable, don't you think?

No, its because I changed my attitude to risk management and trading psychology.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 12:47
There are countless pro gamblers in the horse racing world - .

I'm sure there are people who call themselves pro gamblers - but are they actually successful over a long period of time?

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 12:51
The way he described it, and the way you described it, reminded me of something.

It reminded me of one of those games where there is an element of luck involved like RISK. The skilful players can play for ages and not win, but still be recognised as skilful players Then, given time , they eventually perform better than the average.
Those without skill always blame their luck.

:rolleyes:

Well its a fascinating question - but I still have no evidence that day trading is not completely random, and in fact from the statistics, that is is biased against the day trader since 70% of day-traders lose over the long run
I am also well aware of the human propensity to see patterns where none exist (its built into us from an evolutionary perpective).

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 12:54
Anyway, I am not going to spell this out for you, do some of the homework yourself.

I did some.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis

Interestingly the jury seems divided.
However I note that none of those who support the non-random hypothesis have grown rich, which is the bottom line.

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 13:09
I'm sure there are people who call themselves pro gamblers - but are they actually successful over a long period of time?

Yes, quite a few are.

I know of a chap who does arbitrage on betfair. He earns more now than when he was a trader at Goldmine. All with the lovely benefit of being 100% tax free.

If you google it, you will find them.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:20
Yes, quite a few are.

I know of a chap who does arbitrage on betfair. He earns more now than when he was a trader at Goldmine. .

I'm not particularly interested in what people claim, just in the reality.
Human nature is such that people will make all sorts of bizarre claims, all the while believing 100% in what they say e.g. its human nature to remember only the positives and not the negatives.
So some guy may say (and actually its true) that he made £500K on Betfair last year, not mentioning that he lost 1 million in the prior 2 years.

My mind is totally open to new money-making oppos BTW - there precious little benefit at the mo in your money being in banks/property.

EternalOptimist
2nd November 2009, 13:25
Well its a fascinating question - but I still have no evidence that day trading is not completely random, and in fact from the statistics, that is is biased against the day trader since 70% of day-traders lose over the long run
I am also well aware of the human propensity to see patterns where none exist (its built into us from an evolutionary perpective).

And you would be indisputably correct if we didnt know that some of these gamers are more skillful than the herd.
There IS an element of skill. And SC , to me, is describing a game


:rolleyes:

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 13:25
Yes, quite a few are.

I know of a chap who does arbitrage on betfair. He earns more now than when he was a trader at Goldmine. All with the lovely benefit of being 100% tax free.

If you google it, you will find them.

Yep there are so many ways to trade and none of them are really wrong if you can make a profit.

Betting Arbitrage is similar to a method using shares in a bank I used to work for. The problem is the profits are almost certain, but they are tiny compared to the capital you have to use. So you need a big account.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:31
And SC , to me, is describing a game


:rolleyes:

And there lies the crux of the matter - a random game (like flipping a coin) or one in which there is a skill (like poker)?

Using Occam's Razor, and in the absence of other evidence, I claim day-trading as being random. Any opposing views must provide evidence as to the existence of a more complex (non-random) system.

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 13:36
and in the absence of other evidence,

Eh? You're discounting all of the theory of pricing a share (or index) and noticing when it's under/over valued?

EternalOptimist
2nd November 2009, 13:37
And there lies the crux of the matter - a random game (like flipping a coin) or one in which there is a skill (like poker)?

Using Occam's Razor, and in the absence of other evidence, I claim day-trading as being random. Any opposing views must provide evidence as to the existence of a more complex (non-random) system.

I already answered this.
The player is recognised as being more skilled by the other players, even though he is losing. More so, when he goes on to win consistantly


:rolleyes:

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:41
I already answered this.
The player is recognised as being more skilled by the other players, even though he is losing. More so, when he goes on to win consistantly


:rolleyes:

You're missing the point. In a random system there is no skill. Or do you reckon there are skillful coin-tossers?

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 13:41
And there lies the crux of the matter - a random game (like flipping a coin) or one in which there is a skill (like poker)?

Using Occam's Razor, and in the absence of other evidence, I claim day-trading as being random. Any opposing views must provide evidence as to the existence of a more complex (non-random) system.

So why would you think day-trading is any more random than trading on the higher timeframes?

Surely they should all be random to the same extent?

And if so, there's not point in investing as that is random too :laugh

AtW
2nd November 2009, 13:42
Or do you reckon there are skillful coin-tossers?

I'd classify you as a skillful tosser, not sure about coins...

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:43
Eh? You're discounting all of the theory of pricing a share (or index) and noticing when it's under/over valued?

Yeah that works on the long run - I use it myself. Just to make it clear I invest a substantial sum on stocks - my point is about day-trading - if you buy a stock because its undervalued, you need to hold it for a while for its value to be realised. Similar to what I did with the banks in march.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:45
So why would you think day-trading is any more random than trading on the higher timeframes?

Surely they should all be random to the same extent?

And if so, there's not point in investing as that is random too :laugh

because of you look at the graph of a stock market over 20 years its usually a line going up (with the odd massive fall).
If you look at stock prices over a day it's all over the place.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:46
I'd classify you as a skillful tosser, not sure about coins...

This is supposed to be a reasonable debate. If you have nothing to contribute booger off.:laugh

EternalOptimist
2nd November 2009, 13:46
You're missing the point. In a random system there is no skill. Or do you reckon there are skillful coin-tossers?

I am not missing the point.
I am describing a complex reactive system that contains an element of luck.
There are a set of complex rules, decision branching and, therefore, skill.

The only thing I dont know, is what level of skill is required to overcome the luck element.


:rolleyes:

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 13:55
Yeah that works on the long run - I use it myself. Just to make it clear I invest a substantial sum on stocks - my point is about day-trading - if you buy a stock because its undervalued, you need to hold it for a while for its value to be realised. Similar to what I did with the banks in march.

So, essentially, your argument is that day trading cannot be governed by a set of rules because you haven't seen (or is it believe) the rules and it therefore must be random?

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:55
There are a set of complex rules, decision branching and, therefore, skill.


:rolleyes:

There are undoubetdly a set of rules, decision branching etc.- whether they match reality is what I am querying.

For example if we were tossing a fair coin, I could claim that before I threw it, if I bent down twice and touched my balls, then danced a rumba and then the dog barked, that then the coin would invariably come up heads.
The coin knows nothing of the rules you've set for it, however, and does what it wants.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

TimberWolf
2nd November 2009, 13:56
The only thing I dont know, is what level of skill is required to overcome the luck element.

0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 % surely?

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 13:57
So, essentially, your argument is that day trading cannot be governed by a set of rules because you haven't seen (or is it believe) the rules and it therefore must be random?

I have an open mind and am willing to believe in reasonable evidence
Haven't had any on this thread though..

DimPrawn
2nd November 2009, 13:58
I have an open mind ...

:rollin:

EternalOptimist
2nd November 2009, 14:00
There are undoubetdly a set of rules, decision branching etc.- whether they match reality is what I am querying.

For example if we were tossing a fair coin, I could claim that before I threw it, if I bent down twice and touched my balls, then danced a rumba and then the dog barked, that then the coin would invariably come up heads.
The coin knows nothing of the rules you've set for it, however, and does what it wants.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

No, but you know that people will not pay £20 for a two bob hat, you know the background forces and you know how the markets work.


plus that post was never worth three wry smilees, one at the most

:rolleyes:

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 14:00
:rollin:


Ok Ok only when it comes to making money :wink

AlfredJPruffock
2nd November 2009, 14:02
There are? Name me one.
(I don't count Poker players as there is an element of skill there)

Actually that statement right there suggests to me that you don't understand the nature of probability - you cannot be a pro gambler, say, in a casino because every system in the casino is designed to have an edge for the casino.
If you gamble for long enough in a casino you WILL lose, END OF.
Because the system is designed that way.

Pity you cant ask Christian Huygens who first developed Proability theory - and the ppocket fob watch and the Pendulum Clock - and Titan - he ws also curious about Time Travel.

And Wave theory - and a new musical tone system.

Quite a Polymath.

You should read about him - theres a splendid Biography named 'Titan'.

Thats it ....

AlfredJPruffock
2nd November 2009, 14:02
There are? Name me one.
(I don't count Poker players as there is an element of skill there)

Actually that statement right there suggests to me that you don't understand the nature of probability - you cannot be a pro gambler, say, in a casino because every system in the casino is designed to have an edge for the casino.
If you gamble for long enough in a casino you WILL lose, END OF.
Because the system is designed that way.

Pity you cant ask the old Dutch Astronomer Doctor Christian Huygens who first developed Probability theory - and the pocket fob watch and the Pendulum Clock - and the moon Titan - he ws also curious about Time Travel.

And Wave theory - and a new musical tone system.

Quite a Polymath.

You should read about him - theres a splendid Biography named 'Titan'.

Some say in a foggy evening - you can hear his footsteps on the canal paths of Leiden.

Thats it folks ....

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 14:04
No, but you know that people will not pay £20 for a two bob hat, you know the background forces and you know how the markets work.


plus that post was never worth three wry smilees, one at the most

:rolleyes:

Oh yes it was (to your second comment) :wink


My argument is that on a day basis there is no discernible pattern any decision you make is equivalent to tossing a coin.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 14:06
You should read about him - theres a splendid Biography named 'Titan'.

Thats it ....

I have and Fermat, de Moivre etc. etc. and all the other titans of probability

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 14:09
My argument is that on a day basis there is no discernible pattern any decision you make is equivalent to tossing a coin.

I have no view on your argument, other than to say that if I had such evidence or method to discover such a pattern I wouldn't be sharing it for free on the internet.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 14:09
I have an open mind and am willing to believe in reasonable evidence
Haven't had any on this thread though..

I can tell you that there are many events that occur on price charts which have a greater than 50% chance of occurring:


Bounces off pivot points
Bounces off support/resistance
Bounces of fibonacci retracements (the GBPUSD and euro$ like the 50%)
Price reaching fibonacci extensions
Price action patterns playing out, such as pinbars.
Round number bounces


But the real edge is when you put some of these things together in confluence.

Unfortunately to really prove this, you will have to sit in front of a chart every day like I do. Think of it as the equivalent of putting in flying time to receive a Pilot's license. :)

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 14:14
I have no view on your argument, other than to say that if I had such evidence or method to discover such a pattern I wouldn't be sharing it for free on the internet.

I could share my system here and most people just wouldnt "get it". And others wouldnt have the right psychological make-up to follow it through.

But I wont :)

AtW
2nd November 2009, 14:15
This thread will never reach 1000 posts, or will it? I might need to call up my fembots :tongue

EternalOptimist
2nd November 2009, 14:16
I could share my system here and most people just wouldnt "get it". And others wouldnt have the right psychological make-up to follow it through.

But I wont :)

I think I 'get it',

your CUK name is a bit of a giveaway.
you need a big sack, and only come once a year



:rolleyes:

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 14:16
Well its only the 2nd November and we are already on post no. 81!

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 14:16
I can tell you that there are many events that occur on price charts which have a greater than 50% chance of occurring:


Bounces off pivot points
Bounces off support/resistance
Bounces of fibonacci retracements (the GBPUSD and euro$ like the 50%)
Price reaching fibonacci extensions
Price action patterns playing out, such as pinbars.
Round number bounces


But the real edge is when you put some of these things together in confluence.

Unfortunately to really prove this, you will have to sit in front of a chart every day like I do. Think of it as the equivalent of putting in flying time to receive a Pilot's license. :)

OK I can see how that would work - that's the kind of (tentative) theory to disprove my random hypothesis idea that I was looking for.
If only you'd said so at the start.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 14:18
I think I 'get it',

your CUK name is a bit of a giveaway.
you need a big sack, and only come once a year



:rolleyes:

Well, what I've posted here IS a christmas present, if you use it right.
Thats it from me, too busy now.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 14:25
This thread will never reach 1000 posts, or will it? I might need to call up my fembots :tongue


No it won't because you're a junior poster.

AlfredJPruffock
2nd November 2009, 14:31
I have and Fermat, de Moivre etc. etc. and all the other titans of probability

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

If thats true - which is probably the case - then good for you SG.

Revel in your Time

Altough ....Never Trust -


A Nun
A Gambler
A Time Traveler

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 14:33
If thats true - then good for you SG.

Revel in your Time

In typical fashion it was mainly the Frenchies that came up with mathematically quantifying chance (probability), but actually the English who put it to use in practical stats (Pearson, Fisher et..al)

AtW
2nd November 2009, 14:54
In typical fashion it was mainly the Frenchies that came up with mathematically quantifying chance (probability), but actually the English who put it to use in practical stats (Pearson, Fisher et..al)

:spel

Overpaid traders in the City.

--------

They put it to practice and they failed utterly...

ThomasSoerensen
2nd November 2009, 15:04
I think I 'get it',

your CUK name is a bit of a giveaway.
you need a big sack, and only come once a year



:rolleyes:

do you think there is causality between him oncy coming once a year and him having a big sack?

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 15:16
:spel

Overpaid traders in the City.

--------

They put it to practice and they failed utterly...


As I've observed before, you really are very poorly educated.

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 15:20
As I've observed before, you really are very poorly educated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Pearson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Fisher

HTH

SuperZ
2nd November 2009, 15:22
I can tell you that there are many events that occur on price charts which have a greater than 50% chance of occurring:


Bounces off pivot points
Bounces off support/resistance
Bounces of fibonacci retracements (the GBPUSD and euro$ like the 50%)
Price reaching fibonacci extensions
Price action patterns playing out, such as pinbars.
Round number bounces


But the real edge is when you put some of these things together in confluence.

Unfortunately to really prove this, you will have to sit in front of a chart every day like I do. Think of it as the equivalent of putting in flying time to receive a Pilot's license. :)

Must admit I`m with Sassquash, I see day trading as a flip of the coin but I`m sure there are people who do make money out of it.
Using chart patterns etc in day trading, don`t you find that a pattern or technique that works in one time doesn`t work in another? For example a certain pattern thatt produces profit more than 50% of the time may morph into a loser over time? Markets are efficient and there is software doing all sorts of analysis, if one does find a competive advantage it doesn`t last for long?

I`ve looked into all the charting stuff over time just out of interest and my conclusion was that it`s mystic meg stuff. I still refer to charts and a few technical indicators (basic ones) as a quick glance to indentify trends and for historical reasons.

AtW
2nd November 2009, 15:43
As I've observed before, you really are very poorly educated.

I've got British edukation mate :smile

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 15:47
I've got British edukation mate :smile

:spel edu-ma-kation

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 15:49
:spel edu-ma-kation

:spel edu-ma-ca-shun

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 15:50
I've got British edukation mate :smile

:spel bad ex-Polytechnic


HTH

Moscow Mule
2nd November 2009, 15:58
:spel edu-ma-ca-shun

Aha, the Basildon dialect.

That's a good name for a blog...

AtW
2nd November 2009, 16:00
:spel bad ex-Polytechnic


HTH

It was in Top 100!!! :mad

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 16:01
It was in Top 100!!! :mad

Top 100 of bad ex-polytechnics? :laugh

sasguru
2nd November 2009, 16:18
Anyway Alexei, wrong again. Stockmarket has shot up today. Stick to your coding.

BTW What an unoriginal title for your thread. I know I'm your hero on this forum but do you have to copy me so blatantly? :grin

AtW
2nd November 2009, 16:19
do you have to copy me so blatantly? :grin

Copy is such a bad word, I prefer clone :smokin

BlackenedBiker
2nd November 2009, 16:48
Yep, thats why my "bread and butter" trading is on the 15min chart with reference to 4hr levels. 20-30 pip stoplosses rather than 200 pips.

Pinbars are good, but I would rather take that pin before it has formed, when it looks like a solid bearish/bullish candle and with a much smaller stop. That way I can remove the risk from my trade a lot quicker.

OK, thats it from me for now. Got to get back to the charts.

Are you David "kid" Jenson????

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 17:57
Are you David "kid" Jenson????

Thats right pop pickers.

And it looks like the FTSE and Dow are top of the flops again for the late New York session. :laugh

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 17:58
Anyway Alexei, wrong again. Stockmarket has shot up today. Stick to your coding.

BTW What an unoriginal title for your thread. I know I'm your hero on this forum but do you have to copy me so blatantly? :grin

You sure about that :rollin:
London traders have gone home only to find their pants down tomorrow morning.

HairyArsedBloke
2nd November 2009, 18:05
Mmmmmmm.

I think I've found a correlation in the market. In the US, Feinberg speaks about compensation (pay) for bankers and the market tanks.

We used to have a good little earner in the early 2000's - 'W' speaks and the market would sell off. It was good until everyone caught on.

SantaClaus
2nd November 2009, 18:28
Mmmmmmm.

I think I've found a correlation in the market. In the US, Feinberg speaks about compensation (pay) for bankers and the market tanks.

We used to have a good little earner in the early 2000's - 'W' speaks and the market would sell off. It was good until everyone caught on.

Yep, a bit like when Trichet speaks, the euro rallies.

Unfortunately, its a bit unpredictable when Obama opens his mouth.

Scary
3rd November 2009, 10:17
Just broke 5000...

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 10:26
Yep, my guess is a bounce off that round number until US equities open.

Then it's adios.

Anyone buying today? Come on, stocks are cheap :laugh

oh yes, and can anyone see a "pattern" emerging on the 4hr chart. I'll give you a clue, it looks like snakes and ladders. Or is it random?

AtW
3rd November 2009, 10:31
I'll give you a clue, it looks like snakes and ladders. Or is it random?

Are you playing old console games at work? :eyes

Jeebo72
3rd November 2009, 10:33
Oh man, not one single sector in the blue, my net worth has just plummeted £1000 ... crikey, we're doommed!

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 10:34
Are you playing old console games at work? :eyes

Nope, I dont have a boring IT job and the need to while away the time.

AtW
3rd November 2009, 10:35
Nope, I dont have a boring IT job and the need to while away the time.

Why are you posting on CUK then? :rolleyes:

sasguru
3rd November 2009, 10:40
Why are you posting on CUK then? :rolleyes:

Exactly - he speaks disparagingly of IT and "geeks" yet cannot stay off here.
I suspect he's a failed IT geek who didn't make any money in IT and is now not making any money in day-trading. :wink

HairyArsedBloke
3rd November 2009, 11:26
Bye, bye FTSE 5K

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 11:27
Exactly - he speaks disparagingly of IT and "geeks" yet cannot stay off here.
I suspect he's a failed IT geek who didn't make any money in IT and is now not making any money in day-trading. :wink

Well, I worked for 20 years in IT and banking, programming trading systems and then decided I would rather be the trader in the ivory tower than the programmer in the sweaty basement.

I still like to frequent here to see the state of the market and follow progress on BN66.

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 11:28
Bye, bye FTSE 5K

There's still hope for mine (and Brillo's) Dec 3500 puts.

Covered the cost of them anyway, with regular shorts over the last few days.

BrilloPad
3rd November 2009, 11:29
Well, I worked for 20 years in IT and banking, programming trading systems and then decided I would rather be the trader in the ivory tower than the programmer in the sweaty basement.

I still like to frequent here to see the state of the market and follow progress on BN66.

And to advise me on my investment strategy........

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 11:30
And to advise me on my investment strategy........

lol

DiscoStu
3rd November 2009, 11:31
Exactly - he speaks disparagingly of IT and "geeks" yet cannot stay off here.
I suspect he's a failed IT geek who didn't make any money in IT and is now not making any money in day-trading. :wink

I've enjoyed reading his insight into a world of which I know little. As someone who dabbles with a few hundred quid in a spread betting account I've found his posts most interesting.

BrilloPad
3rd November 2009, 11:32
Exactly - he speaks disparagingly of IT and "geeks" yet cannot stay off here.
I suspect he's a failed IT geek who didn't make any money in IT and is now not making any money in day-trading. :wink

Good to see the being nice thing is going strong.

I sat next to SantaClaus for 3 months. We still meet for coffe every month or two. I can guarantee you that there is no BS from him.

But continually putting others down without any basis in fact you just make yourself look bad. Why dont you try turning your efforts to something more positive?

DimPrawn
3rd November 2009, 11:32
I've enjoyed reading his insight into a world of which I know little. As someone who dabbles with a few hundred quid in a spread betting account I've found his posts most interesting.

2nded.

sasguru
3rd November 2009, 11:33
There's still hope for mine (and Brillo's) Dec 3500 puts.

.

Using my system - the one that enabled me to predict this sell off - I can tell you that the FTSE will not be at 3500 in December. It will be considerably higher. I have placed my money accordingly.

HTH

BrilloPad
3rd November 2009, 11:35
Using my system - the one that enabled me to predict this sell off - I can tell you that the FTSE will not be at 3500 in December. It will be considerably higher. I have placed my money accordingly.

HTH

I dont care if it will be 3500 or not. What matters is whether the markets think it will reach 3500 or not.

sasguru
3rd November 2009, 11:49
I dont care if it will be 3500 or not. What matters is whether the markets think it will reach 3500 or not.

Indeed. And they don't and it won't.

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 11:49
Good to see the being nice thing is going strong.

I sat next to SantaClaus for 3 months. We still meet for coffe every month or two. I can guarantee you that there is no BS from him.

But continually putting others down without any basis in fact you just make yourself look bad. Why dont you try turning your efforts to something more positive?

Thanks Brillo for your kind words. We will definitely have to meet up soon.

Hope they are treating you well at Clientco.

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 11:50
Using my system - the one that enabled me to predict this sell off - I can tell you that the FTSE will not be at 3500 in December. It will be considerably higher. I have placed my money accordingly.

HTH

You dont have a system. You still think the markets are 100% random. :laugh

AtW
3rd November 2009, 11:50
Thanks Brillo for your kind words. We will definitely have to meet up soon.

In order to meet him all you need is to look next to you or maybe even down :wink

AtW
3rd November 2009, 11:51
I dont care if it will be 3500 or not. What matters is whether the markets think it will reach 3500 or not.

You don't care about correct spelling either it seems...

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 11:53
In order to meet him all you need is to look next to you or maybe even down :wink

I may just have to kill some squirrels for that :devil

AtW
3rd November 2009, 11:54
I may just have to kill some squirrels for that :devil

*o*******k**!!! :tantrum:

sasguru
3rd November 2009, 11:57
You dont have a system. You still think the markets are 100% random. :laugh

You don't listen do you? It is your downfall - I'm not the one losing money.
The market is random is on a day-to-day basis but not in the medium/long run.
Place your choice on Dim's poll and we'll see who's closer come December.

sasguru
3rd November 2009, 11:59
But continually putting others down without any basis in fact you just make yourself look bad. Why dont you try turning your efforts to something more positive?


Am i the one who constantly speaks disparagingly of "geeks" and IT, yet posts on an IT forum? I think not.

HTH etc.

SantaClaus
3rd November 2009, 12:04
You don't listen do you? It is your downfall - I'm not the one losing money.
The market is random is on a day-to-day basis but not in the medium/long run.
Place your choice on Dim's poll and we'll see who's closer come December.

broken record mate!

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 09:17
Up again this morning. Nothing can derail the financial juggernaut Gordon's created for us. Boomed!

Jeebo72
4th November 2009, 09:30
I see blue numbers ... phew ... and relax ...

TimberWolf
4th November 2009, 09:32
The Pound isn't even dropping. What's going wrong with the currency debasement plan? Or is all money becoming worth less?

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 09:32
Up again this morning. Nothing can derail the financial juggernaut Gordon's created for us. Boomed!

It's a one way ticket to boomsville.

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 09:48
It's a one way ticket to boomsville.

Everybody climb aboard, Gordon's printing enough money for all of us :banana:

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 09:53
Looks like FTSE hit a 4hr trendline and resistance.

There's an above 50% chance ( :) ) that this baby will sink.

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 09:54
Looks like FTSE hit a 4hr trendline and resistance.

There's an above 50% chance ( :) ) that this baby will sink.

Just tell me when I should put the short on :D

AtW
4th November 2009, 10:05
Just tell me when I should put the short on :D

Put your shorts on whilst talking to other people, even if it's online... :sick

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 10:10
Just tell me when I should put the short on :D

Dont follow me as its a series of trades and good risk/reward that win in the long-run. This individual trade may win or lose, especially as Dow is not open yet.

But for the record, I am short at 5075 with a stop at 5120. Looking to take profit at 5000 again.

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 10:15
Dont follow me as its a series of trades and good risk/reward that win in the long-run. This individual trade may win or lose, especially as Dow is not open yet.

But for the record, I am short at 5075 with a stop at 5120. Looking to take profit at 5000 again.

I never gamble more than £1 a pip. I do it strictly for fun, I lack the self-discipline and skill to do it properly. Thanks for the tip tho, may have a little flutter :happy

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 10:18
I'm £400 down already today on my coin flipping based oil trading.

:frown

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 10:19
I'm £400 down already today on my coin flipping based oil trading.

:frown

:rollin:

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 10:19
I'm £400 down already today on my coin flipping based oil trading.

:frown

Maybe you want to look for a system with an edge that is higher than 50% :laugh

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 10:20
Maybe you want to look for a system with an edge that is higher than 50% :laugh

:laugh

AlfredJPruffock
4th November 2009, 10:21
Gambling only pays when your winning
Keep them mowblades sharp ....

When the sun beats down
And I lie on the bench
I can always hear them talk

sasguru
4th November 2009, 10:24
Maybe you want to look for a system with an edge that is higher than 50% :laugh

Yes if such a system existed everyone would be on it making money for free.
The fact that they don't means it doesn't.

HTH

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 10:25
£500 down.

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 10:26
£500 down.

:rollin:

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 10:26
:rollin:

It's not funny.

TimberWolf
4th November 2009, 10:27
£500 down.

You are a rubbish gambler. The best ones only recognise gains.

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 10:28
It's not funny.

£500 is pocket change to a millionaire like yourself :D

Pondlife
4th November 2009, 10:28
£500 down.

I might suggest that the coin you are using is bad luck. Do you have another, or is that all that's left now.

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 10:29
£500 is pocket change to a millionaire like yourself :D

My house goes up by that amount in 10 minutes.

:D

Andy2
4th November 2009, 10:30
I'm £400 down already today on my coin flipping based oil trading.

:frown

I trade oil profitably every time. Its easy to trade with LOIL etf.
I buy LOIL at 5 or 5.5 and surely it goes back to 6 or 6.5 ,
thats when I sell it. It need some patience to hold .

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 10:30
My house goes up by that amount in 10 minutes.

:D

Exactly, thanks to our mighty leader's skilled economic stewardship it's impossible not to make money these days.

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 10:41
£500 down.

I guess if it was a coin-toss, no point in asking you if you bought/sold, stoploss, profit target, reason for trade, lol. :rollin:

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 10:43
You do have a stoploss?

When you have almost infinite wealth the way DimPrawn does, you don't need a stoploss :D

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 10:44
When you have almost infinite wealth the way DimPrawn does, you don't need a stoploss :D

of course, his stoploss is his house :laugh

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 11:02
I guess if it was a coin-toss, no point in asking you if you bought/sold, stoploss, profit target, reason for trade, lol. :rollin:

Eh? You speaka da English?

:laugh

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 12:05
For anyone who is short FTSE, I may close at a small 10 pip loss and re-enter later or tomorrow.

The market hasnt moved much this morning and we have a lot of volatile news out that could whipsaw price:

1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
7:15pm USD FOMC Statement

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 12:09
What about the spread? How can you open and close these positions quickly without getting walloped by the spread?

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 12:11
What about the spread? How can you open and close these positions quickly without getting walloped by the spread?

Spread is 2 points on IGIndex.

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 12:17
Spread is 2 points on IGIndex.

I use IG Index to lose my money for me too.

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 16:25
£700 down now.

Damn that 50p coin.

It's in the bin now.

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 16:47
£700 down now.

Damn that 50p coin.

It's in the bin now.

Sounds like your trade should be in the bin too.
You have heard of a stoploss haven't you?

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 16:49
Sounds like your trade should be in the bin too.
You have heard of a stoploss haven't you?

They are for wimps.

SuperZ
4th November 2009, 16:50
Sounds like your trade should be in the bin too.
You have heard of a stoploss haven't you?

Go on Dim, place a stoploss. As soon as you get Stopped Out, the market will head in the other direction, the way you wanted to go from the beginning.:laugh

AlfredJPruffock
4th November 2009, 16:56
The market giveth
The market taketh away

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 17:07
The market giveth
The market taketh away

:spel

The market taketh away

HairyArsedBloke
4th November 2009, 17:36
Go on Dim, place a stoploss. As soon as you get Stopped Out, the market will head in the other direction, the way you wanted to go from the beginning.:laugh

Ah, the number of times that has happened to me. :tantrum:

Only out numbered by the times a stop loss has saved my arse, and my account being blown, by my bad trades. :suicide:

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 17:44
Ah, the number of times that has happened to me. :tantrum:

Only out numbered by the times a stop loss has saved my arse, and my account being blown, by my bad trades. :suicide:

If you're not using a stoploss, you're not using risk management and will ultimately blow up your account.

HairyArsedBloke
4th November 2009, 17:45
If you're not using a stoploss, you're not using risk management and will ultimately blow up your account.

Ya know, I think I said that.

HairyArsedBloke
4th November 2009, 18:08
Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs’s $100 Million Trading Days Fell in Third Quarter (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afxeZy5a_Dz8&pos=4)



Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, reaped more than $100 million of trading revenue on 36 days in the third quarter, down from a record 46 in the preceding three months.

Don't you just hate it when that happens, they must have a bunch of slackers there.

Over at Zerohedge they have a different perspective (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-view-goldmans-trading-perfection-and-statistical-improbabilities).


When a firm's trading performance challenges not only all preconceptions of realistic trading, but also of statistical distributions, one can merely stand back and watch in awe.

That site cracks me up. :laugh

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 18:09
If you're not using a stoploss, you're not using risk management and will ultimately blow up your account.

I'm hoping for a government bailout.

:eyes

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 19:30
Sell, Sell, Sell!

SantaClaus
4th November 2009, 19:31
I'm hoping for a government bailout.

:eyes

ROFL :rollin:

DimPrawn
4th November 2009, 19:58
Sold at £220 loss.

Lucky git to get away with that!

AtW
4th November 2009, 20:03
Sold at £220 loss.

Lucky git to get away with that!

Dirty speculant...

DiscoStu
4th November 2009, 20:53
I'm hoping for a government bailout.

:eyes

:rollin: :yay:

AtW
6th November 2009, 15:58
Did the market collapse today or not? I am too busy working on SKA :eyes

DimPrawn
6th November 2009, 16:24
Did the market collapse today or not? I am too busy working on SKA :eyes


:yay:

DimPrawn
8th November 2009, 19:33
Key dates for your diary this week:

Monday: Bank of England reverse gilt auction (£1.7bn)

Tuesday: UK trade figures, BRC retail sales monitor, RICS housing market survey, Communities Department house price index

Wednesday: Bank of England Inflation Report, unemployment data and average earnings figures, Bank of England reverse gilt auction (£1.7bn)

Thursday: Nothing scheduled

Friday: Nothing scheduled


Choose your crash day.

:laugh

AtW
8th November 2009, 19:52
Key dates for your diary this week:

Monday: Bank of England reverse gilt auction (£1.7bn)

Tuesday: UK trade figures, BRC retail sales monitor, RICS housing market survey, Communities Department house price index

Wednesday: Bank of England Inflation Report, unemployment data and average earnings figures, Bank of England reverse gilt auction (£1.7bn)

Thursday: Nothing scheduled

Friday: Nothing scheduled


Choose your crash day.

:laugh

It's not a complete list, here are the missing entries:

Saturday: :moon:guru buys new eco shed.

Sunday: he asks for a refund.

TimberWolf
8th November 2009, 21:17
When is the new £10 coin going to be minted?

BrilloPad
9th November 2009, 11:34
FTSE looks quite buoyant today

DimPrawn
9th November 2009, 11:40
FTSE looks quite buoyant today

Gordon's steady hand at the helm.

sasguru
9th November 2009, 11:51
It's not a complete list, here are the missing entries:

Saturday: :moon:guru buys new eco shed.

Sunday: he asks for a refund.

Given the cost of the bloody thing, it should have made a substantial impact on the economy.

PS You would love one - it's warm, spacious, and you can see the squirrels outside

AtW
9th November 2009, 12:02
PS You would love one - it's warm, spacious, and you can see the squirrels outside

I much prefer my "bedsit"

HTH

Money Money Money
9th November 2009, 13:13
FTSE looks quite buoyant today

Was untill I just bought some! Starting to sink a little!

DimPrawn
9th November 2009, 13:18
Was untill I just bought some! Starting to sink a little!

You have my luck!

You can keep it!

:laugh

SantaClaus
9th November 2009, 14:13
Looks like the bubble needs to get bigger before it pops.

Cheap $$$ are funding this bubble:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5ritflpCi34&pos=6

Andy2
9th November 2009, 14:26
All those billions are flowing into stocks,oil,gold,commodities
First we pay for the banks bailout and then we pay again for high oil prices
nice one

DimPrawn
9th November 2009, 14:28
All those billions are flowing into stocks,oil,gold,commodities
First we pay for the banks bailout and then we pay again for high oil prices
nice one

And then when the bubble bursts again and the banks lose trillions, we can pay again.

:laugh

Fooked!

Money Money Money
9th November 2009, 14:45
You have my luck!

You can keep it!

:laugh

Does that mean as I have your bad luck, you now have good luck?

Money Money Money
11th November 2009, 09:40
Right.... Question for you lot.

As you know i'm a little fresh to this trading lark BUT...

It seems alot of the time big changes in the market open at certain times of the day (certain markets opening).

Would it work to make a list of times that certain markets open, I think 9.30 must be one and also 12.30 and 1.30. 3 mins before hand put in 2 orders, one to buy a few points above what its on, and one to sell a few points below.

If the market shoots up/down you shouyld be covered???

Does this work?

Also what other times do the markets open?

MMM.

DimPrawn
11th November 2009, 09:54
You could put a one-touch up and a one-touch down on the stock market a little before the opening times.

If it falls or rises and touches your positions at any time, you win.

Santa probably is the man to ask.

I'm use the trading platform like Brewster's Millions. :frown

Money Money Money
11th November 2009, 09:59
You could put a one-touch up and a one-touch down on the stock market a little before the opening times.

If it falls or rises and touches your positions at any time, you win.

Santa probably is the man to ask.

I'm use the trading platform like Brewster's Millions. :frown


I'm sure he'll be along soon, i've had a fairly good morning. About £140 up, and thats just from a £210 kitty this morning!

I make my mistakes when I go out for lunch, yesterday the market dropped to the exact amount my stop was at and then shot back up!!!! :suicide:

AtW
11th November 2009, 10:11
yesterday the market dropped to the exact amount my stop was at and then shot back up!!!! :suicide:

Guess what? Some "clever" chap calculated that you and other suckers will put stop loss at that value and then it is a matter of borrowing shares and forcing market down to that value, which results further drop due to stop loss orders activated and the guy takes the money from fools like you.

All stock market info MUST have a compulsory link: http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/

HTH

Money Money Money
11th November 2009, 10:14
Guess what? Some "clever" chap calculated that you and other suckers will put stop loss at that value and then it is a matter of borrowing shares and forcing market down to that value, which results further drop due to stop loss orders activated and the guy takes the money from fools like you.

All stock market info MUST have a compulsory link: http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/

HTH

Lot of effort for my £58 isn't it? :freaky:

SantaClaus
11th November 2009, 10:43
Right.... Question for you lot.

As you know i'm a little fresh to this trading lark BUT...

It seems alot of the time big changes in the market open at certain times of the day (certain markets opening).

Correct


Would it work to make a list of times that certain markets open, I think 9.30 must be one and also 12.30 and 1.30. 3 mins before hand put in 2 orders, one to buy a few points above what its on, and one to sell a few points below.

If the market shoots up/down you shouyld be covered???

Does this work?

It's called a straddle. Sometimes it will work, but a lot of times you will be "whipsawed" out of both positions with a double loss.


Also what other times do the markets open?

MMM.

Market timings are very important. Sometimes you can use them to catch a reversal. Other times you should take note of them to stay out of a trade.
It's a bit like walking a tightrope!

7:00 Europe opens - possible small reversal
8:00 London opens - possible reversal again and direction for the morning may be set.
11:00 Market goes to sleep before the US opens.
13:30 US news releases - sometimes huge volatility
14:30 US stock market opens.
16:30 London closes. Possible reversal again

Also take note of holidays. Today is a holiday in the US, Canada and France. Now look at the whipsaw that the dealers created on the GBPUSD during Mervyn Kings speech. They got away with that because of thin trading volume.

If you want to see the various economic announcements that could affect your trade, look here. The red announcements are the ones to be wary of, as are the speeches, like Bernanke, Trichet, King:

http://www.forexfactory.com/

AtW
11th November 2009, 10:44
7:00 Europe opens - possible small reversal
8:00 London opens - possible reversal again and direction for the morning may be set.
11:00 Market goes to sleep before the US opens.
13:30 US news releases - sometimes huge volatility
14:30 US stock market opens.
16:30 London closes. Possible reversal again

:sick

SantaClaus
11th November 2009, 10:46
Guess what? Some "clever" chap calculated that you and other suckers will put stop loss at that value and then it is a matter of borrowing shares and forcing market down to that value, which results further drop due to stop loss orders activated and the guy takes the money from fools like you.

All stock market info MUST have a compulsory link: http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/

HTH

Most retail traders put their stoplosses in the same place, just above or below a swing high/low. It's not hard for the dealers to knock out the weak hands in one go.

SantaClaus
11th November 2009, 10:49
You could put a one-touch up and a one-touch down on the stock market a little before the opening times.

If it falls or rises and touches your positions at any time, you win.

Santa probably is the man to ask.

I'm use the trading platform like Brewster's Millions. :frown

Most of the time, binary trades (including one touches) are priced such that the probabilities are against you. I wouldnt bother with them, unless you want a pure gamble.

Andy2
11th November 2009, 10:52
Right.... Question for you lot.

As you know i'm a little fresh to this trading lark BUT...

It seems alot of the time big changes in the market open at certain times of the day (certain markets opening).

Would it work to make a list of times that certain markets open, I think 9.30 must be one and also 12.30 and 1.30. 3 mins before hand put in 2 orders, one to buy a few points above what its on, and one to sell a few points below.

If the market shoots up/down you shouyld be covered???

Does this work?

Also what other times do the markets open?

MMM.
if there is a gap up or gap down when the market opens , your order to sell or buy may not be honoured.

Money Money Money
11th November 2009, 10:54
if there is a gap up or gap down when the market opens , your order to sell or buy may not be honoured.

Thats what i was worried about.

I would only really do it if I was sat infront of the computer, so I would clear the opposite order. e.g. If the market rose and my order bought, I would then cancel the sell order.

May give it a go tomorrow as today looks like its going to be dead because of the holidays??

SantaClaus
11th November 2009, 11:03
if there is a gap up or gap down when the market opens , your order to sell or buy may not be honoured.

It wont be honoured. You could use a guaranteed stop, but then they place a limit on the minimum distance you may have that stop.


Thats what i was worried about.

I would only really do it if I was sat infront of the computer, so I would clear the opposite order. e.g. If the market rose and my order bought, I would then cancel the sell order.

May give it a go tomorrow as today looks like its going to be dead because of the holidays??

Trading straddles is too simplistic.
The chances are, one order will be triggered and the market will come back and take you out your stop. You would have cancelled the other order, but the order that was triggered will be a loss.

In the worst case scenario, the market could whipsaw so quickly, it will trigger both orders and take out both stops.

Believe me, I tried this method a long time ago, for news releases too.
It doesnt work.

But hey, ho. It's your money!

Andy2
16th November 2009, 15:46
There is no end to this rally
up up and away

Scary
16th November 2009, 18:05
It wont be honoured. You could use a guaranteed stop, but then they place a limit on the minimum distance you may have that stop.



Trading straddles is too simplistic.
The chances are, one order will be triggered and the market will come back and take you out your stop. You would have cancelled the other order, but the order that was triggered will be a loss.

In the worst case scenario, the market could whipsaw so quickly, it will trigger both orders and take out both stops.

Believe me, I tried this method a long time ago, for news releases too.
It doesnt work.

But hey, ho. It's your money!
Don't you do this with options? If the volatility is less than the cost of the options you lose, if it swings wildly one way or the other you don't exercise your other option.

BrilloPad
25th November 2009, 13:57
Still no sign of it. I hope December crash is on the cards.

DiscoStu
25th November 2009, 14:00
Still no sign of it. I hope December crash is on the cards.

It'll never happen while our current glorious leader is in power. His sound economic governance will ensure an everlasting boom for us all.

BrilloPad
25th November 2009, 14:02
It'll never happen while our current glorious leader is in power. His sound economic governance will ensure an everlasting boom for us all.

I suppose while he is in power QE will continue so gilts unattractive. Once QE goes into reverse it will be different.

SuperZ
25th November 2009, 14:21
Bull run to the end of year methinks. Fill yer sandles

Andy2
26th November 2009, 15:21
Dubai on the verge of default
FTSE down 2.5%

Sell Sell Sell

DimPrawn
26th November 2009, 15:42
Dubai on the verge of default
FTSE down 2.5%

Sell Sell Sell

Buy Buy Buy!

Every dip in anything is a buying opportunity.

Trade your worthless pounds for anything!

MrMark
26th November 2009, 15:49
Buy Buy Buy!

Every dip in anything is a buying opportunity.

Trade your worthless pounds for anything!

It's a sign of what state of the economy is in, when what DimPrawn advises, makes perfect sense...;)

SantaClaus
26th November 2009, 18:22
Lets see what the yanks do after they've eaten their turkeys.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHSgyg6MVqGw&pos=1

This could be the spark that ignites the fire.

Fred Bloggs
26th November 2009, 20:14
Dubai on the verge of default
FTSE down 2.5%

Sell Sell SellBUY, BUY, BUY

Fill your boots.

HairyArsedBloke
26th November 2009, 20:30
BUY, BUY, BUY

Fill your boots.

Yeah, maybe, or not.

This is interesting (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/26/85536/sterling-dubai-a-liquidation-love-story/) from FT AlphaVille

Fred Bloggs
26th November 2009, 20:40
Yeah, maybe, or not.

This is interesting (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/26/85536/sterling-dubai-a-liquidation-love-story/) from FT AlphaVilleKeep buying, the lower the prices go, the more you get for the money.

SantaClaus
26th November 2009, 22:45
Keep buying, the lower the prices go, the more you get for the money.

Yep, keep buying.

The banks need plenty of punters to offload their inflated stock to.

SuperZ
26th November 2009, 23:31
We could be looking at the largest correction since March, but no way in my opinion are we looking at a drop below the lows of March. It`s a buying opportunity. As a guess, I think we could go down to 4650(more likely) to 4450(less likely) if this does turn out to be a decent correction rather than just one or two bad days. That market has moved far and quite fast to the recent highs. Although not a chartist, I can see the market (FTSE)has hit the 30 month moving average (5300), and some will be looking to sell for that exact reason.

Big nad time!

DimPrawn
27th November 2009, 09:34
I just made £150 in an hour of trading the oil futures from the low.

Came within 2 pips of my stop position before going up and netting me some tax free money.

Nice.

:)