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View Full Version : What will happen when the current V shaped recovery collapses?



DimPrawn
16th November 2009, 15:01
What do you think will happen? Will the USA and UK just do the same thing again, bail out the banks, print more trillions and blow up another bubble

or

throw in the towel and say all financial institutions are now bust, all your money is gone, everyone please start again and work your way out of this depression?

Jeebo72
16th November 2009, 15:03
Watch the south park episode where stan puts his money in the bank ... it explains it all ...

DiscoStu
16th November 2009, 15:03
What do you think will happen? Will the USA and UK just do the same thing again, bail out the banks, print more trillions and blow up another bubble

or

throw in the towel and say all financial institutions are now bust, all your money is gone, everyone please start again and work your way out of this depression?

We'll both default, go cap-in-hand to the IMF, they won't have enough cash to bail us out and we'll all end up using the Chinese Yuan.

HTH

TimberWolf
16th November 2009, 15:04
Presumably the collapse would have to happen quickly if it is to work, otherwise people would just pile into other currencies, assets or commodities like gold. Erm...

If the Dollar or Pound collapsed, would the Euro and Ozzie dollar fall too?

Andy2
16th November 2009, 15:08
We'll both default, go cap-in-hand to the IMF, they won't have enough cash to bail us out and we'll all end up using the Chinese Yuan.

HTH

A decent chinese takeaway will cost us an arm and a leg

RichardCranium
16th November 2009, 15:09
A decent chinese takeaway will cost us an arm and a legStill better than a Russian kebab (did we conclude that link was too sick to post?)

SantaClaus
16th November 2009, 15:11
Presumably the collapse would have to happen quickly if it is to work, otherwise people would just pile into other currencies, assets or commodities like gold. Erm...

If the Dollar or Pound collapsed, would the Euro and Ozzie dollar fall too?

The $ is currently being used as a carry trade currency. Therefore if the stock markets crash, the $ should appreciate. The $ is a risk aversion currency and rises when equities sink.

When the $ rises, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDSUD will all fall.

TimberWolf
16th November 2009, 15:11
It's going to be a coffin shaped* recovery


*Seen on HPC

Clippy
16th November 2009, 15:13
I think world leaders are trying to see us through to 2012 after which it won't matter as the world is due to end then.

Andy2
16th November 2009, 15:13
It's going to be a coffin shaped* recovery


*Seen on HPC

A V shaped coffin or W shaped

SantaClaus
16th November 2009, 15:13
I think world leaders are trying to see us through to 2012 after which it won't matter as the world is due to end then.

Must be true, the film says so!

Jeebo72
16th November 2009, 15:16
It's going to be a V shaped recovery. Followed by another V shaped recovery. It certainly won't be a W shaped recovery.

Clippy
16th November 2009, 15:24
You know the world has gone mad when people are queuing up overnight (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/shoppingandfashion/6568773/Shoe-fever-as-cut-price-Jimmy-Choos-hit-the-high-street.html) to buy the latest pair of shoes!

Oh well, good traing for when they have to start doing this for a loaf of bread. :laugh

tenpin
16th November 2009, 15:59
Watch the south park episode where stan puts his money in the bank ... it explains it all ...

You got an episode/series number for that? Ta...

BoredBloke
16th November 2009, 16:14
Nope but today I watched the one where Cartman got aids.

"Are you sure?"

"I'm HIV positive"

Jeebo72
16th November 2009, 16:24
You got an episode/series number for that? Ta...

Season 13, Episode 3

Bank Clerk: How can I help you, young man?
Stan Marsh: I got a hundred-dollar check from my grandma and my dad said I need to put it in the bank so it can grow over the years.
Bank Clerk: Well that's fantastic. A really smart decision, young man. We can put that check in a money market mutual fund, then we'll re-invest the earnings into foreign currency accounts with compounding interest aaaand it's gone

Even better one from the current series: where the japs are killing all the whales ...

tenpin
16th November 2009, 16:41
Season 13, Episode 3

Bank Clerk: How can I help you, young man?
Stan Marsh: I got a hundred-dollar check from my grandma and my dad said I need to put it in the bank so it can grow over the years.
Bank Clerk: Well that's fantastic. A really smart decision, young man. We can put that check in a money market mutual fund, then we'll re-invest the earnings into foreign currency accounts with compounding interest aaaand it's gone

Even better one from the current series: where the japs are killing all the whales ...

Great - ta.

I love South Park. Consistently on the money. Been catching up/re-watching during the train commute, watched "Smug" this morning about the hybrid cars (I have a lot of catching up to do).

DimPrawn
16th November 2009, 16:43
So when the US $ booms and all the current carry trade unwinds and all the stock markets and commodities crash, will the US government print another trillion and add to their insurmountable debt or let it just fail?

That's what I'd like to know.

SantaClaus
16th November 2009, 16:52
So when the US $ booms and all the current carry trade unwinds and all the stock markets and commodities crash, will the US government print another trillion and add to their insurmountable debt or let it just fail?

That's what I'd like to know.

Good question. Ask Ben Bernanke, but I dont think he'll tell you.

Clippy
16th November 2009, 16:52
So when the US $ booms and all the current carry trade unwinds and all the stock markets and commodities crash, will the US government print another trillion and add to their insurmountable debt or let it just fail?

That's what I'd like to know.

Unless there is another viable option, then yes.