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View Full Version : Recession over (probably)



DimPrawn
26th January 2010, 08:11
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/7077367/Britain-expected-to-exit-worst-recession-in-decades.html

So, no more doom guys. We are not in recession, unemployment is falling and didn't rise much, house prices are no lower than before and people are better off than ever, City is paying huge bonuses, car sales have biggest gain in 34 years, houses are more affordable than ever due to low interest rates and exports are rising due to weak pound.

What was all the fuss about? A bright rosy future awaits us under another term of Labour.

BlackenedBiker
26th January 2010, 08:14
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/7077367/Britain-expected-to-exit-worst-recession-in-decades.html

So, no more doom guys. We are not in recession, unemployment is falling and didn't rise much, house prices are no lower than before and people are better off than ever, City is paying huge bonuses, car sales have biggest gain in 34 years, houses are more affordable than ever due to low interest rates and exports are rising due to weak pound.

What was all the fuss about? A bright rosy future awaits us under another term of Labour.

Bring on the W shaped recession???

Waldorf
26th January 2010, 08:33
I am worried that the first quarter of 2010 will drop again - these figures will be out just before the election:wink

HairyArsedBloke
26th January 2010, 09:33
+0.1 :rollin:

(edit) Sminki (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192)

sweetandsour
26th January 2010, 09:36
How likely is it that that figure will be revised later?

VectraMan
26th January 2010, 09:42
Wasn't the recession probably over last time?

HairyArsedBloke
26th January 2010, 09:45
How likely is it that that figure will be revised later?

100% - they alway are because the figures released are based on incomplete data. If you asking if it will be revised lower, I think so. However, previous figures were revised up from -0.3% to -0.2%.

gingerjedi
26th January 2010, 09:54
7000 fall in unemployment, economy grows 0.1% ...both figures are only just on the positive side, I call shenanigans!!

ChimpMaster
26th January 2010, 10:16
"Britain expected to exit worst recession in decades"
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"Britain expected to exit worst recession, in decades"

sunnysan
26th January 2010, 10:18
"Facts are stubborn things but statistics are more pliable"

Laurence Peter, author of the Peter Principle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Principle)

AtW
26th January 2010, 10:40
"Britain expected to exit worst recession in decades"
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"Britain expected to exit worst recession, in decades"

:eek:

Doggy Styles
26th January 2010, 11:02
Could this have had something to do with everyone spending before 31-Dec when VAT went back up and the car discounts dried up?

AtW
26th January 2010, 11:18
Could this have had something to do with everyone spending before 31-Dec when VAT went back up and the car discounts dried up?

Have you seen the weather on 31st? I have not seen many cars on the road apart from mine :eyes

Doggy Styles
26th January 2010, 11:19
Have you seen the weather on 31st? I have not seen many cars on the road apart from mine :eyesI'm referring to the whole quarter up to and including the 31st.

TimberWolf
26th January 2010, 11:21
The currency markets don't seem particularly enamoured with Sterling subsequent to the ONS release.

Doggy Styles
26th January 2010, 12:30
Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

AtW
26th January 2010, 12:48
we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

That's the beauty - definition of recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP, so technically (unless this number is revised - I think it may go upwards a bit) Britain won't be officially again in recession until after June at the earliest. :eyes

Doggy Styles
26th January 2010, 12:58
That's the beauty - definition of recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP, so technically (unless this number is revised - I think it may go upwards a bit) Britain won't be officially again in recession until after June at the earliest. :eyesFair point AtW. Technically I should have said back to negative growth (now you come to mention it, is it only two quarters?)

If July does indicate we are back in recession, the first quarter will be posthumously included in the period of recession. It's just that we won't know until July, after the election.

Ruprect
26th January 2010, 15:45
The mash has explained it fairly succinctly:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/uk-economy-grows-by-fifteen-pence-201001262413/

MrMark
26th January 2010, 16:55
Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

Gordon the bottler? Err, no thanks. He's going to drag it out as long as he can. A leopard cannot change its spots.

suityou01
27th January 2010, 06:45
Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

Take a peek at linky (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8479639.stm)


"The Q4 GDP figures are a major blow to hopes that the UK economy had emerged decisively from recession in Q4," said analyst Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics.

"No doubt some commentators will claim that the figures are under-estimating the true strength of the recovery and will be revised up in time.

"That is certainly possible. But it won't change the big picture of an economy still operating way below both its pre-recession and trend levels of output."

Get ready for the cabaret, lights, glamour of the election. :suicide: