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EternalOptimist
25th February 2010, 11:00
I am not a whizz when it comes to all this stuff, like some of youse guys

The scenario - Me and the missus are going on a big trek to Europe this summer and we need about 3k worth of euros
given the situation with greece, our election, etc etc

when would be the best time to buy the currency



:rolleyes:

DimPrawn
25th February 2010, 11:00
Best time to buy would be about 2 years ago.

HTH

EternalOptimist
25th February 2010, 11:03
Best time to buy would be about 2 years ago.

HTH

factually, I find it hard to fault you. But in practical terms you are about as much use as a pencil sharpener on Alpha Centurii

there...Ive said it



:rolleyes:

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 11:05
Why not look at it the other way around? See what the currencies are doing around the time and then decide where to go on holiday.

milanbenes
25th February 2010, 11:05
why do you need so much cash ?

why not just draw from the whole in the wall when you need it ?

Milan.

Moscow Mule
25th February 2010, 11:06
Best time to buy would be about 2 years ago.

HTH

Get your own jokes.

http://forums.contractoruk.com/1061841-post3.html

:P

suityou01
25th February 2010, 11:06
I am not a whizz when it comes to all this stuff, like some of youse guys

The scenario - Me and the missus are going on a big trek to Europe this summer and we need about 3k worth of euros
given the situation with greece, our election, etc etc

when would be the best time to buy the currency



:rolleyes:

Just backpack round Europe and pay your way with "favours" ;)

HTH

EternalOptimist
25th February 2010, 11:08
Why not look at it the other way around? See what the currencies are doing around the time and then decide where to go on holiday.

because the missus hates holidays, but she loves planning them.
In an ideal world, she could plan six holidays a year and then I could cancel them all and save a fortune



:rolleyes:

ChimpMaster
25th February 2010, 11:10
I gave up worrying about the difference that exchange rates can make when you go on holidays. I know it's a kick in the nuts sometimes but you can't stress about things like this that are out of control.

After all, how much difference is it going to make? £20, £100? Won't likely be more than that on a £3,000 exchange.

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 11:10
because the missus hates holidays, but she loves planning them.
In an ideal world, she could plan six holidays a year and then I could cancel them all and save a fortune



:rolleyes:In my books, anything which involves planning is no longer a holiday but work. We never book more than a week beforehand and sometimes we just get in the car and set off southwards. Stop off somewhere in Deutschland for the night then keep driving to Italy and we’ve never failed to end up somewhere good.

EternalOptimist
25th February 2010, 11:11
why do you need so much cash ?

why not just draw from the whole in the wall when you need it ?

Milan.

true
I am just trying to find out if there is anything major and blindingly obvious that I may have missed



:rolleyes:

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 11:12
true
I am just trying to find out if there is anything major and blindingly obvious that I may have missed



:rolleyes:

Because Mrs EO has instructed you to deliver your ‘currency exchange risk analysis’ as part of her detailed ‘holiday project plan’ and you are nearing the deadline.

BlasterBates
25th February 2010, 11:18
Buy a thousand now, a thousand a bit later on and then a thousand just before you go on holiday.

Alternatively just use your bank card and draw Euros from any bank cash machine when you need them on holiday,

Menelaus
25th February 2010, 11:19
Before writing this, please note:

1. I'm not FSA-approved to provide investment advice
2. I'm not a currency trading expert
3. My knowledge of currency trading comes from domestic use (e.g., getting at my own cash)

I tend to use www.oanda.com if I'm looking for foreign currency or exchange rates - they've got quite a good reputation.

That having been said, you might be just as well to draw cash as you go via ATM although in the interests of avoiding any issues when you're on your travels it's probably worthwhile to let your bank know which countries you'll be in.

The reason for this is that if it sees attempted authorisations (irrespective of whether or not you've used your PIN) in a non-UK location for cash it'll instantly trigger alarm bells within the neural network that most banks use (either CRIS (VISA) or Falcon (per institution)).

Embarrassingly, despite working for the company that develops Falcon, it binned me on an ATM transaction in 2008 at HSBC (my own bankers at the time) in Hong Kong Airport, and I ended up having to ring HSBC in the UK to have a rant at them.

If you're planning to buy forward (reiterating that I am not an expert in currency trading) you might find that for ~£3000 the possible arbitrage opportunity is limited anyway - if there were to be losses made they'd be small.

Hope that this helps.

Xenophon
25th February 2010, 11:21
Menelaus in financial advice thread shocker.

DimPrawn
25th February 2010, 11:23
Any advice on winter clothing for Arctic conditions?

HairyArsedBloke
25th February 2010, 11:35
Get a couple of hundred in euro smash from the post office a couple of days before you go (to avoid last minute panics) and slap the rest on the plastic.

James Tiberius Kirk
25th February 2010, 11:35
factually, I find it hard to fault you. But in practical terms you are about as much use as a pencil sharpener on Alpha Centurii

there...Ive said it
:rolleyes:
I'll have you know the eraser heads of Varg (a small as yet undiscovered class M planet orbiting Alpha Centuri) value and indeed base most of their religions around pencil sharpeners


HTH

BlackenedBiker
25th February 2010, 11:41
In my books, anything which involves planning is no longer a holiday but work. We never book more than a week beforehand and sometimes we just get in the car and set off southwards. Stop off somewhere in Deutschland for the night then keep driving to Italy and we’ve never failed to end up somewhere good.

We would all end up in Swindon though :mad

Pondlife
25th February 2010, 11:47
Menelaus in financial advice thread shocker.

:eek but :rollin:

Scary
25th February 2010, 11:49
We would all end up in Swindon though :mad

Take an excursion to Avebury to look at the rocks.

http://www.visitwiltshire.co.uk/

scooterscot
25th February 2010, 11:50
Alternatively just use your bank card and draw Euros from any bank cash machine when you need them on holiday,

WHS

It's been some years now since I've taken a large lump of cash with me when travelling abroad. Instead I use my nationwide card to withdraw cash and the rate of exchange is usually very decent even then there's no extra charges.

On the plus side you might find you do not need to spend all that money and you're not stuck with extra euros on the mantlepiece when you get home...

sweetandsour
25th February 2010, 12:13
I usually take a normal wallet load in the local currency to cover taxis and such things and then everything else goes on Amex or Visa.

I have found some retailers and even ATMs abroad have offered to do the currency conversion for me so that they charge my card in sterling and there is no conversion charges to pay the provider.

Does anybody know if it is better to take them up on that offer or stick to the credit card providers' rates? I have always declined because I have felt that at that moment in time I am in no position to decide whether I am being offered a good deal or not and it is an ideal opportunity for the locals to rip me off. Do they?

norrahe
25th February 2010, 12:14
Look into credit cards that don't charge interest on non UK transactions.

Pay everything via said card and then pay it off when you get back.

Get some cash emergencies.

EternalOptimist
25th February 2010, 12:16
Thanks guys

it looks like there is no 'killer analysis' then like
wait untill after the election
or
buy now while Greece in the poo


looks like I'll just take it easy then


:rolleyes:

Menelaus
25th February 2010, 12:22
I usually take a normal wallet load in the local currency to cover taxis and such things and then everything else goes on Amex or Visa.

I have found some retailers and even ATMs abroad have offered to do the currency conversion for me so that they charge my card in sterling and there is no conversion charges to pay the provider.

Does anybody know if it is better to take them up on that offer or stick to the credit card providers' rates? I have always declined because I have felt that at that moment in time I am in no position to decide whether I am being offered a good deal or not and it is an ideal opportunity for the locals to rip me off. Do they?

There's a DCC facility in card schemes which is managed by the acquiring businesses and the card schemes which relies on the willingness of the cardholder to accept this - it is, however, used sometimes by the acquiring companies to take up the slack in arbitrage and thus give you a wholly rubbishy rate in return.

EO: http://corporate.visa.com/pd/consumer_services/consumer_ex_rates.jsp this might help? It's the VISA card scheme conversion tables updated daily (I think).

Olly
25th February 2010, 12:23
PS. Nationwide Flex account is best for currency abroad from ATM

If you're going somewhere obscure then the Post Office credit card is "free" to use anywhere.

HairyArsedBloke
25th February 2010, 12:29
Thanks guys

it looks like there is no 'killer analysis' then like
wait untill after the election
or
buy now while Greece in the poo

looks like I'll just take it easy then


:rolleyes:

That is 'goods for sale' matey!

This week, against the US Dollar, both the pound and euro are weakening, but the pound more so. Hence the pound is also weakening against the euro. The pounds weakness is due to concerns about the approaches to resolving the UK fiscal debt, or rather the lack of them. The euro still has Greece around it's chops and there is renewed fear of contagion. So that may mean it will weaken faster against the US dollar than the pound making the latter stronger.

What is going to bother people next week? Frack knows.

sweetandsour
25th February 2010, 12:33
There's a DCC facility in card schemes which is managed by the acquiring businesses and the card schemes which relies on the willingness of the cardholder to accept this - it is, however, used sometimes by the acquiring companies to take up the slack in arbitrage and thus give you a wholly rubbishy rate in return.Sorry. You'll have to use simpler words because I don't know what any of that means.

Whats a DCC scheme?

Menelaus
25th February 2010, 12:36
Sorry. You'll have to use simpler words because I don't know what any of that means.

Whats a DCC scheme?

Sorry. :emb

Dynamic Currency Conversion.

http://www.barclaycard.co.uk/business/accepting-payments/dynamic-currency-conversion/

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 12:41
Sorry. :emb

Dynamic Currency Conversion.

http://www.barclaycard.co.uk/business/accepting-payments/dynamic-currency-conversion/Have you not developed a completely useless mathematical model that could give EO a pseudo-rational answer to his question?

Menelaus
25th February 2010, 12:43
Have you not developed a completely useless mathematical model that could give EO a pseudo-rational answer to his question?

Haven't developed a completely useless model in years, but thanks for asking.

DiscoStu
25th February 2010, 12:44
Take a Tornado for a spin, buy some Euros in Italy and bring them back. Just don't spill any bolognese sauce on them.

HTH

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 12:45
Haven't developed a completely useless model in years, but thanks for asking.You know, those 'risk models' for bankers?

The ones I tested and proved were shite, but was told to shut my mouth.

Gibbon
25th February 2010, 12:49
keep driving to Italy and we’ve never failed to end up somewhere good.

Not surprising really, even in the most tulipe place there is good food, coffee and vino.

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 12:56
Not surprising really, even in the most tulipe place there is good food, coffee and vino.
Ended up stranded in this place (http://www.villadamelia.com/welcome_eng.lasso)once.

Menelaus
25th February 2010, 12:57
You know, those 'risk models' for bankers?

The ones I tested and proved were tulipe, but was told to shut my mouth.

The issue with the models that the investment community were using (and still use) is not with the models themselves, it's with the interpretation of their output.

I am completely aware of how nuanced that sounds and how it might appear that I'm gilding the lily here but if one examines the inputs, assumptions and outputs of the models these were all fine.

"Irrational exuberance" in the markets for buying - in effect - anything that had an underlying security without investigating either what that security was or how it was valued (basic due diligences) had a much larger part to play in this than models.

However, returning to your point, as for the "blame" associated with the global recession, there's plenty of blame to go around, and none of us get off scot-free.

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 12:58
The issue with the models that the investment community were using (and still use) is not with the models themselves, it's with the interpretation of their output.

I am completely aware of how nuanced that sounds and how it might appear that I'm gilding the lily here but if one examines the inputs, assumptions and outputs of the models these were all fine.

"Irrational exuberance" in the markets for buying - in effect - anything that had an underlying security without investigating either what that security was or how it was valued (basic due diligences) had a much larger part to play in this than models.

However, returning to your point, as for the "blame" associated with the global recession, there's plenty of blame to go around, and none of us get off scot-free.

I don’t mind taking the blame if I’m paid handsomely for it.

sweetandsour
25th February 2010, 13:00
Sorry. :emb's

Dynamic Currency Conversion.

http://www.barclaycard.co.uk/business/accepting-payments/dynamic-currency-conversion/OK, I can see the value of the DCC scheme.

What's in it for the customer? - They get to see the purchase in their home currency.

What's in it for the retailer? - Better customer service and they get some commission.

What's in it for the card network? - I don't understand that bit.

So far so good.

The next bit was
it is, however, used sometimes by the acquiring companies to take up the slack in arbitrage and thus give you a wholly rubbishy rate in return.

You lost me on that bit too.

Gibbon
25th February 2010, 13:00
Ended up stranded in this place (http://www.villadamelia.com/welcome_eng.lasso)once.

Nice, only three months and I'll be in Montepulciano, wine tasting.

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 13:03
Nice, only three months and I'll be in Montepulciano, wine tasting.Very nice. Villa d’Amelia’s in Langhe, where the Barolos and Barbarescos are made. If you want to stop off on the way to Chiantishire, stop somewhere near Turin and try the Barolos. If you stop off for a night in Turin, which is ideal if you take the train, then go to the hotel ‘Principe di Piemonte’. Favourite restaurant of the Agnelli family, who are quite fussy about their food and can afford to be very particular about the wines.

Menelaus
25th February 2010, 13:05
OK, I can see the value of the DCC scheme.

What's in it for the customer? - They get to see the purchase in their home currency.

What's in it for the retailer? - Better customer service and they get some commission.

What's in it for the card network? - I don't understand that bit.

So far so good.

The next bit was

You lost me on that bit too.

The arbitrage in this instance is the difference between the rate you'd be charged as a card holder to convert from (say) € to £ were you not being billed to your card in your home currency (assuming that it's £).

Whilst the difference for the card holder might be negligible (e.g., basis points) on a series of small transactions (the occasional 10 cents here or there) from a portfolio perspective if the difference is .001% over a whole portfolio of transactions then that can run into some tasty amounts.

sweetandsour
25th February 2010, 13:17
The arbitrage in this instance is the difference between the rate you'd be charged as a card holder to convert from (say) € to £ were you not being billed to your card in your home currency (assuming that it's £).

Whilst the difference for the card holder might be negligible (e.g., basis points) on a series of small transactions (the occasional 10 cents here or there) from a portfolio perspective if the difference is .001% over a whole portfolio of transactions then that can run into some tasty amounts.Thanks.

I am still none-the-wiser but I think I will leave it at that. This stuff is beyond me.

Jog On
25th February 2010, 13:29
Live charts (http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/)

Go to Instruments, choose EUR/GBP

Choose your timeframe

You decide! :D

Gibbon
25th February 2010, 13:40
Very nice. Villa d’Amelia’s in Langhe, where the Barolos and Barbarescos are made. If you want to stop off on the way to Chiantishire, stop somewhere near Turin and try the Barolos. If you stop off for a night in Turin, which is ideal if you take the train, then go to the hotel ‘Principe di Piemonte’. Favourite restaurant of the Agnelli family, who are quite fussy about their food and can afford to be very particular about the wines.

I love Barolo, but quaffing wine it ain't. Flying into Pisa and driving the rest of the way. Haven't been to Turin yet, but thanks for the Hotel Tip.

Went to Treviso last year, lovely little town almost devoid of tourists.

Mich the Tester
25th February 2010, 13:42
I love Barolo, but quaffing wine it ain't. Flying into Pisa and driving the rest of the way. Haven't been to Turin yet, but thanks for the Hotel Tip.

Went to Treviso last year, lovely little town almost devoid of tourists.I played rugby there once; nice place, v good food.

EternalOptimist
25th February 2010, 13:47
I stayed in Pompeii a couple of years ago, looked like a blooming hurricane had hit it or something


:rolleyes:

Drewster
25th February 2010, 14:08
I stayed in Pompeii a couple of years ago, looked like a blooming hurricane had hit it or something


:rolleyes:

You probably went after the Southampton match....

HairyArsedBloke
25th February 2010, 14:26
Live charts (http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/)

Go to Instruments, choose EUR/GBP

Choose your timeframe

You decide! :D

A friend of mine is using those feeds while at work. I set up a four view workspace for him.

<see below> | EUR/GBP
GBP/USD | EUR /USD

Keep all the currency windows on the same time frame; the default of 1 hour is good. It will show you a lot about how they relate to each other.

The top left window can switch to whatever you want. In the morning UK100 (i.e. FTSE) in the afternoon SPX500 would be a good one.

Jog On
25th February 2010, 14:51
A friend of mine is using those feeds while at work. I set up a four view workspace for him.

<see below> | EUR/GBP
GBP/USD | EUR /USD

Keep all the currency windows on the same time frame; the default of 1 hour is good. It will show you a lot about how they relate to each other.

The top left window can switch to whatever you want. In the morning UK100 (i.e. FTSE) in the afternoon SPX500 would be a good one.

That's what I need. I'm learning all about correlations at the moment as well :glasses My AUD/USD and NZD/USD short trades are kicking some serious booty at the mo :banana: I may as well have just doubled up on one of them.