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It was the Sun what won it (oops maybe not)

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    It was the Sun what won it (oops maybe not)

    THE General Election was turned on its head tonight when the Lib Dems pushed Labour into THIRD place following the historic leaders' telly debate.
    Nick Clegg - boosted by a convincing victory in Thursday's showdown - saw his party leap eight points to 30 per cent.

    The sensational YouGov poll for The Sun had David Cameron's Tories still in the lead on 33 per cent.

    But Gordon Brown's ailing Labour Party was in disarray, relegated to a dismal 28 per cent.

    Our landmark poll is the very first nationwide survey on how Brits plan to vote taken since the debate.

    And it made political history - as the first time the party of government has dropped to third place in a General Election campaign.

    YouGov chairman Peter Kellner said: "Suddenly we're in uncharted waters. The Lib Dem surge throws this election wide open. When the volcanic dust from Thursday's debate has settled, who will have suffered most - Labour or the Tories?"

    Pollsters YouGov quizzed 1,290 people throughout today. The staggering result left all wannabe MPs reeling and proved the May 6 election is now officially a three-horse race.

    In the shock poll, the Lib Dems took four points from the Conservatives, three from Labour and one from smaller parties. But the most dramatic shift in support for the Lib Dems was from the young, with a massive 44 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds saying they would vote for Mr Clegg. The poll proves the ITV1 debate was an utter disaster for Mr Brown. Every survey yesterday said the PM came a distant last in the Manchester clash.

    It is the first time the third-placed party has overtaken Labour or the Tories in polls during a General Election campaign since 1983.

    And in no previous campaign for the keys to No10 has support for the centre party reached 30 per cent.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...l-reveals.html



    However, ITV 'analysis' of those numbers put Labour with the largest number of seats. We're on for a Lib-Lab government boys, you heard it here first (or not). Call me Dave has blown it.
    The court heard Darren Upton had written a letter to Judge Sally Cahill QC saying he wasn’t “a typical inmate of prison”.

    But the judge said: “That simply demonstrates your arrogance continues. You are typical. Inmates of prison are people who are dishonest. You are a thoroughly dishonestly man motivated by your own selfish greed.”

    #2
    How bizarre. Not the poll results, but the analysis of them.

    Comment


      #3
      Well they (Tories) would have to win more targets off Labour, and that isn't likely to happen on those numbers
      The court heard Darren Upton had written a letter to Judge Sally Cahill QC saying he wasn’t “a typical inmate of prison”.

      But the judge said: “That simply demonstrates your arrogance continues. You are typical. Inmates of prison are people who are dishonest. You are a thoroughly dishonestly man motivated by your own selfish greed.”

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Bagpuss View Post
        Well they (Tories) would have to win more targets off Labour, and that isn't likely to happen on those numbers
        My point is that the Sun is setting great stall on numbers immediately after a ground-breaking event, whose effect will wear off long before the real election.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Doggy Styles View Post
          My point is that the Sun is setting great stall on numbers immediately after a ground-breaking event, whose effect will wear off long before the real election.
          Not if Clegg puts in good performances in the next two debates.

          The next one will be interesting. Does Cameron start attacking Clegg, which could also backfire.

          Even if the effect subsides, this is a complete disaster for the Tories. To have any chance of an overall majority, they need to take seats of the LibDems - and that's looking tougher by the minute.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Bagpuss View Post
            Pollsters YouGov quizzed 1,290 people
            That strikes me as a pretty small number to be basing anything on. If you consider that 1 in 6 people watched the debate, and if the people polled were a random sample, then the conclusion that Clegg moved ahead because of the debate is based on only 215 people. And that's 0.00004% of the electorate.

            I think if the party that comes third in the popular vote gets the most number of seats, we should have a big riot and start demanding some proper democracy. Because clearly that's insane.
            Will work inside IR35. Or for food.

            Comment


              #7
              I think this is all confusing.

              On the poll for example I voted that Clegg had performed the best. I'll still vote Tory. This is a blip that's all
              What happens in General, stays in General.
              You know what they say about assumptions!

              Comment


                #8
                Amazed

                Odds from Betfair


                No Overall Majority 1.99

                Conservative Majority 2.24

                Labour Majority 17.5

                Any Other Party Majority 85

                Looks like I've found a way to offset next years tax demand should disaster strike.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by MarillionFan View Post
                  I think this is all confusing.

                  On the poll for example I voted that Clegg had performed the best. I'll still vote Tory. This is a blip that's all
                  Basically there are two types of poll being done

                  a) Who did best in the debate
                  b) Who are you now going to vote for on 6th May

                  Many thought Clegg won the debate (a), but polls of type (b) are showing that it has also increased the LD's support. People are changing their mind on who to vote for as a result of the debate.

                  Whether this support has the stamina to last until election day is another matter. But if even part of it remains, DC has a mountain to climb.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by centurian View Post
                    People are changing their mind on who to vote for as a result of the debate
                    I wonder how many of those have changed their minds because of what they saw in the debates, and how many have changed their minds because of all the media coverage saying Nick Clegg won? I suspect the majority fall into the later camp, and probably didn't even watch the debate.
                    Will work inside IR35. Or for food.

                    Comment

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