AGW certain or uncertain.

[BlasterBates]

In the IPCC AR4 conclusions, they used words like "unequivocal" and "very likely".

A new paper out seems to pour cold water on that:

Here is Professor Judith's Curry review of the paper (a highly respected climate scientist):

Separating natural and anthropogenically-forced decadal climate variability | Climate Etc.

Separating natural and anthropogenically-forced decadal climate variability | Climate Etc.

The conclusion of the paper:

The main conclusion drawn from the body of work reviewed in this paper is that distinguishing between natural and externally forced variations is a difficult problem

In other words "we don't know what's natural warming and what's AGW"


And here is what Judith Curry says:

The issues surrounding natural internal decadal scale variability are a huge challenge for separating out natural from forced climate change. The same issues and challenges raised for future projections remain also for the warming in the last few decades of the 20th century. Sorting this out is the key challenge. No more unequivocals or very likelys in the AR5, please.

[DimPrawn]

Sounds to me like the scientists need a lot more time and a LOT more funding.

Nothing another dozen Carbon taxes can't fix.

[Doggy Styles]

Sounds to me like the scientists need a lot more time and a LOT more funding.

Well I think it's money well spent.

Who would have guessed, as we are told these scientists have established, that increased use of fossil fuels is actually unrelated to the increase in the world's population using them?

And that carbon emissions from fossil fuels will carry on increasing despite fossil fuels running out?

It takes a lot of funding to discover clever stuff like that.

[pjclarke]

Using just short words....

Nothing in science is certain.

The IPCC said that the warming of the climate system was unequivocal and it is highly likely that most of the rise is anthro... sorry, manmade.

This paper does not change that as it is about the problem of distinguishing between manmade and natural vaiability at regional spatial scales and decadal timescales.

I do not know how warm it will be in my village this time next week. But I can be reasonably certain that the UK will be warmer in average in June, than it was in March. Same thing.

About the only thing that is certain is that any new research will be distorted into a mistaken soundbite by Blaster of Bates.

[Wodewick]

Using just short words....
......... regional spatial scales and decaldal timescales.

I don't normally bother posting on these sort of threads.

But PJ given your statement about short words... what is decaldal?

Sorry to be a numptie but I do like to try to understand..............

[pjclarke]

decaldal - definition: couldn't be arsed to spell check a post correcting a numptie.

nitpicker: definition .... ?

[EternalOptimist]

Using just short words....

Nothing in science is certain.

It's always interested me how the doommongers would eventually climb down. The pigs did it by changing the mantra, 'four legs good, two legs bad' into 'two legs good'

It seems that the doomdsay merchants will do it by stating what has been blindingly obvious to the sceptics all along, and then adopt it as their very own position.
Of course they will have to square this with previous statements , but they will do this with spin and playing with words, not with science.

An AGW doomsday merchant will soon be as rare as a nazi in postwar Germany, so we should treasure pj, and not be too hard on him.



decadal is a cycle that completes once every ten years, roughly

[Wodewick]

decaldal - definition: couldn't be arsed to spell check a post correcting a numptie.

nitpicker: definition .... ?

Thanks - Just as I thought.

Your supercillious and patronising "Using just short words" statement was just that supercillious and patronising

Yet you couldn't help yourself and just had to throw in a few "clever" words you had read somewhere cos you thought they sounded good. (I didn't point out "vaiability" by the way)

You may be quite knowledgable about whatever it is you are constantly spouting on about - but to be honest you come across as a bit of a tool and incredibly boring.
I'll go back to not commenting on posts that include your particular ego puffing content - and frankly if my "nitpicking" has punctured that particular balloon I consider it a triumph.

[Wodewick]

decadal is a cycle that completes once every ten years, roughly

Thanks EO - I did know what that word meant as it is an english word not one made up by a pompous knob

Pompous:
affected, bloated, boastful, bombastic, conceited, flatulent, flaunting, flowery, fustian, grandiloquent, grandiose, high and mighty, high-flown, highfaluting, imperious, important, inflated, magisterial, magniloquent, narcissistic, orotund, ostentatious, overbearing, overblown, pontifical, portentous, presumptuous, pretentious, puffed up, puffy, rhetorical, self-centered, self-important, selfish, showy, sonorous, stuck-up, supercilious, turgid, uppity, vain, vainglorious, windy

knob: An obnoxious person (see Urban Dictionary)

[EternalOptimist]

If there is uncertainty over CAGW, why do they call us 'deniers' ?