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SantaClaus
13th September 2011, 20:27
<Placeholder> :smokin

DimPrawn
13th September 2011, 20:29
No way.

Germany are just playing games.

The Euro is Germany's control over Euroland, they won't let it fall to bits no matter what the financial cost.

AtW
13th September 2011, 20:31
It's all part of the game plan - Germany is the market maker and they are using it to get one back at dirty spekulants who go from one direction to another.

HFT chaps will soon be funding singularity research in order to get decisive advantage over human rivals.

Doggy Styles
13th September 2011, 20:41
Dress it up how you like, there is no way Greece can become solvent within the euro, and no way the Germans will support them for much longer.

SantaClaus
13th September 2011, 20:43
Lets see what happens...

AtW
13th September 2011, 20:46
Let's say Greece defaults ... tough tulip - it won't leave euro zone, just those who were too ****ing stupid to lend them money (especially recently) will have to deal with losses, probably 30-50%, not too bad especially if longer term restructuring is offered.

Now banks that hold that tulip might need to be bailed out again but that would be individual problem for countries where those banks are located - should have bloody supervised them better!

Ironically weak euro benefits Germany most as they are proper exporter.

DimPrawn
13th September 2011, 20:46
Dress it up how you like, there is no way Greece can become solvent within the euro, and no way the Germans will support them for much longer.

If Greece defaults, it will create a domino effect for all the banks holding Greek debt, they themselves will become insolvent and require massive EU bailouts, pusing the Germans to bankruptcy or ditch the Euro.

:popcorn:

If it all goes tits up, I'm buying some nice villas in France and Spain for next to nothing.

MarillionFan
13th September 2011, 20:49
Can we all just wait until 11.05am on Thursday like last week and the week before. 11 O Clock I tend to ditch all of my shares each week and convert back into cash making a couple of grand in the process. Bullish day for tomorrow please.

AtW
13th September 2011, 20:49
If it all goes tits up, I'm buying some nice villas in France and Spain for next to nothing.

Buy a wheel barrow instead to hold enough money to buy bread and water.

Doggy Styles
13th September 2011, 20:51
If Greece defaults, it will create a domino effect for all the banks holding Greek debt, they themselves will become insolvent and require massive EU bailouts, pusing the Germans to bankruptcy or ditch the Euro.

:popcorn:

If it all goes tits up, I'm buying some nice villas in France and Spain for next to nothing.Between a rock and a hard place for those europhalics!

scooterscot
13th September 2011, 21:09
Nobody tells me nuffing. When did this happen?

Honestly you'd never know there was a debt crisis from here in Munich. In fact found a €100 note on the pavement the other day. True.

AtW
13th September 2011, 21:10
In fact found a €100 note on the pavement the other day. True.

:rollin:

Cliphead
13th September 2011, 21:12
Nobody tells me nuffing. When did this happen?

Honestly you'd never know there was a debt crisis from here in Munich. In fact found a €100 note on the pavement the other day. True.

Not a lucky, they're thowing it away :eyes

Doggy Styles
13th September 2011, 21:33
Honestly you'd never know there was a debt crisis from here in Munich. In fact found a €100 note on the pavement the other day. True.It fell out of a wheelbarrow. :laugh

TimberWolf
13th September 2011, 21:36
Check it for skid marks, you can't be too careful with rich bankers about.

Old Greg
14th September 2011, 07:11
This is the simple bit:

1. Greece defaults and defaults big - there's no point defaulting a little bit.
2. Greece introduces the new drachma and starts paying its obligations (public sector wages and any bonds it hasn't defaulted on) in the new currency, but any existing individual or corporate bank deposits in Euros remain in Euros.
3. Greece devalues its currency, restoring competitiveness - an example would be cheaper holidays in Greece.

This is the difficult bit:
1. Bond markets are closed to Greece (but they already are) so Greece must learn to decrease public expenditure (which is largely addressed by devaluing currency) and by collecting taxes (which it may be learning to do via the introduction of a hard-to-dodge property tax collected through electricity bills).


It's time to stop government bail-outs of banks that foolishly leant to Greece at low interest rates.

MarillionFan
14th September 2011, 07:13
Stock markets sideaways again today. :eyes

Nothing to see here today. :frown

chef
14th September 2011, 07:23
The European Economic Advisory Group have released a report (found here (http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/pls/portal/docs/1/1201535.PDF)) looking at the various potential responses to the Eurozone/Greek crisis

they firstly discuss internal devaluation ( tough austerity measures and squeezes on wages and jobs at home), but from page 118 onwards of the report they discuss Greece leaving the Euro, they note that if Greece did decide to leave the eurozone there would undoubtedly be a bank run, amongst other problems, therefore the ECB would probably need to guarantee all Greek bank deposits.

After demonstrating that Greece would take a big hit should it embark on external devaluation (Greece leaving the eurozone) and head for the exit, they make an important observation: Greek banks might suffer just as much if no devaluation occurs, while private sector companies would be clear winners in the case of an external devaluation


As Greek banks are net borrowers abroad and net lenders at home, the external depreciation will probably hurt them by shrinking the eurovalue of their assets more than shrinking the eurovalue of their liabilities.

However, this analysis forgets the additional write-off losses on claims against the companies of the real economy that will be driven into bankruptcy after an internal depreciation. If these write-off losses are taken into account, it is not clear whether banks fare better after an internal depreciation than after an external one. It is only clear that companies of the real economy will fare better after an external depreciation.

In view of these uncertainties in the analysis, the EEAG has decided not to opt for a particular policy alternative but only to inform policymakers of the relevant arguments. Definitely, there is no alternative that clearly dominates the other in all dimensions.

This isn't a direct call for Greece to leave the eurozone, but it does say that distinguished economists are clearly toying with the idea - though stressing that every scenario involves huge costs.

DodgyAgent
14th September 2011, 08:02
So in "easy for an agent to understand" terms, either Greece allows Germany to run its economy or it drops out of the Eurozone. If the former leads to riots then who quells them? German riot police? where have we seen this before?

Churchill
14th September 2011, 08:04
So in "easy for an agent to understand" terms, either Greece allows Germany to run its economy or it drops out of the Eurozone. If the former leads to riots then who quells them? German riot police? where have we seen this before?

Erm is the answer "Germany"?

PAH
14th September 2011, 08:07
If it all goes tits up, I'm buying some nice villas in France and Spain for next to nothing.


How? If it goes that tits up your bank(s) will be tits up too so wave goodbye to any savings.

Better buy back into gold. :rolleyes:

BlasterBates
14th September 2011, 08:14
Regardless of whether Greece defaults or not, life will be sh*te in Greece, the only recent country that defaulted recently is Argentina, Iceland didn't actually go bankrupt, it was the banks that did. Greece will have the double whammy, like Argentina, where the state and the banks go bankrupt. The effect of this is to completely squash the economy, because regradless of how cheap things are in Greece, there will be no credit. You can't run a business without credit. Anyone who thinks Argentina just bounced back within a few months, check again. Argentina went through years of pain. Greece needs to sort out it's public finances plain and simple, and it needs access to credit.

PAH
14th September 2011, 08:23
Greece needs to corner the european holiday market to bring in loads of lovely money. They've got the facilities and sunshine, just need the low prices.

Maybe a default and going back to the drachma will help that.

alreadypacked
14th September 2011, 08:48
I thought the Greek government were going to sell their assets to solve some of their debit problems.

EUobserver.com / Economic Affairs / Greece unveils fire-sale of government assets (http://euobserver.com/19/32385)

sasguru
14th September 2011, 09:45
FFS DKUATB (http://forums.contractoruk.com/general/68798-greece-defaults.html)

Churchill
14th September 2011, 09:48
FFS DKUATB (http://forums.contractoruk.com/general/68798-greece-defaults.html)

If you weren't such a pariah, perhaps people would take note of what you say.

sasguru
14th September 2011, 10:07
If you weren't such a pariah, perhaps people would take note of what you say.

You're not exactly the dogs bollox yerself.

Churchill
14th September 2011, 10:10
You're not exactly the dogs bollox yerself.

Unlike you, I don't give a sh!t. :D

scooterscot
14th September 2011, 11:29
Check it for skid marks, you can't be too careful with rich bankers about.

I give it sniff, it's clean. Keeping it jammed under me monitor until someone deserving crosses my path.

AtW
14th September 2011, 11:35
life will be sh*te in Greece

Why?

Weather is good and will remain so.

Food is good and cheap.

Plenty of rioting opportunities.

Greece is the country that managed to stop Persian hordes will surely manage this crisis like it never happened.

scooterscot
14th September 2011, 11:35
2. Greece introduces the new drachma and starts paying its obligations (public sector wages and any bonds it hasn't defaulted on) in the new currency, but any existing individual or corporate bank deposits in Euros remain in Euros.

I don't disagree. But logistics is a problem when a packet of digestive biscuits costs 34,323,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00 drachma.

They'll never go back. Just a feeling, more likely Germany and France shall take over the Greece government before that happens.

OwlHoot
14th September 2011, 11:41
Greece needs to corner the european holiday market to bring in loads of lovely money. They've got the facilities and sunshine, just need the low prices.

Maybe a default and going back to the drachma will help that.

They could sell us the Parthenon for a start.

I mean we already have the Elgin Marbles, so we may as well have the rest, and move it stone by stone to Primrose Hill or somewhere. :smokin

minestrone
14th September 2011, 11:55
They will never go back to the drachma. They just have to be booted out the system and be regarded as a nation without a currency. It will cause bother in the short term but it is the only way to sort the problem out.

Doggy Styles
14th September 2011, 11:56
They could sell us the Parthenon for a start.

I mean we already have the Elgin Marbles, so we may as well have the rest, and move it stone by stone to Primrose Hill or somewhere. :smokinPrimrose Hill? Posh Londoners get enough perks already.

What's wrong with Sefton Park? No, scratch Sefton Park, it would all disappear within a few days. What about Ivinghoe Beacon?

eek
14th September 2011, 12:37
They will never go back to the drachma. They just have to be booted out the system and be regarded as a nation without a currency. It will cause bother in the short term but it is the only way to sort the problem out.

You're right as I don't think they can go back to a currency no one will want. It will be like visiting Turkey until abojut 2005 when everyone wanted Euros and Dollars and their own currency was something only local shopkeepers accepted under duress.

The problem is that I don't think there is a mechanism to boot a country out of the single currency (or even for a country to leave it). The plan only had a single direction and risk assessments with appropriate contingency plans were ever thought about. It very much was if we build it, it will work and no one thought of the consequences of countries simply treating it as an bottomless piggy bank.

eek
14th September 2011, 12:40
They could sell us the Parthenon for a start.

I mean we already have the Elgin Marbles, so we may as well have the rest, and move it stone by stone to Primrose Hill or somewhere. :smokin

Wouldn't it be better to use it to finish the national monument in Edinburgh. See National Monument, Edinburgh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Monument,_Edinburgh)

As an aside given what happens to all infrastructure projects in Edinburgh (this, the Scottish Parliament building....) why on earth did they think they could build a tramway.

Incognito
14th September 2011, 13:24
Slightly OT, but what an example of the right way to handle a crisis

Iceland Shows Ireland Did (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/iceland-proves-ireland-did-wrong-things-saving-banks-instead-of-taxpayer.html)

What a message to send out to the rest of the world

**** the lot of you, if you were stupid enough to lend to them without doing your due diligence then take the pain

:laugh

MarillionFan
14th September 2011, 13:29
Well equities nearly up 2% so obviously they dont think Greece is going to go bust.

So I'm going to bail out a day early.

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 14:09
[Rosbif prediction mode on]

The question is not if Greece will default but when.
Same goes with the Eurozone.

The greek crisis clearly has taken an uncontrollable turn and default can not be avoided anymore, only slowed down. It might happen as early as end of October but will probably happen in november or december 2011.
Greece needs to provide 340 to 380 billion euros between 2012 and 2019 (without taking into account eventual increase of its deficit)

Germany has in a way already accepted Greece to leave the eurozone as it's been shown by its support plan to its banks.
It's also clear that many financial institutions are getting prepared to the end of the eurozone.

Days after Greece leaves the Eurozone, speculation will run haywire against Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy (maybe Belgium?)

Combined with a social crisis in Spain, it will force Spain to ask for help to the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) for ammounts exceeding largely what is now forecasted.

Besides Greece, the cash injection required to keep the countries afloat can be astimated to 90b for Portugal, 50b for Ireland, 250-300b for Spain - a total of 390-440 billion

In these condition Germany's contribution would be 2-4% of its GDP over 7 years - This would be unacceptable for Merkel unless she wants to commit political suicide.

For the above reasons European particularly exposed to junk bonds capitalization has dramatically plunged since the beginning of August. In France, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole have already been downgraded by Moody, the next step beeing the downgrading of France itself.

That's why Sarkozy is pushing so hard to try and prevent Greece to default.

And that's why Merkel is not.

[Rosbif prediction mode off]

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 14:14
Who has done best out of Greece being in the Euro? Greece, EU, speculators or other? And who the worst?

BlasterBates
14th September 2011, 14:20
2-4% of GDP is nothing compared to what will happen if Greece defaults, and hence everyone else as well. If the Eurozone breaks up, banks will go bankrupt (check Iceland for the consequences, absolutely dire), the remaining Euro without the defaulters will shoot up strangling exports, not forgetting Germany exports mainly in the Euro zone, the ensuing credit crunch will casue a worldwide recession so exacerbating the recession, and there will be no credit, making it trebly worse. The consequences will easily wipe off the current growth around 2% for several years. Nope they'll keep Greece alive, because they've no choice. There may be a minimal default with nodding agreements from French banks, but there will be no full scale "hey guys we're bankrupt". Nope Germany may gnash it's teeth but in the end they'll pay.

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 14:20
France's GDP, however, is around €2 trillion by International Monetary Fund estimates – while the balance sheets of French banks "are some 400% of that number," says David Zervos, head of global fixed income strategy at securities and investment banking group Jeffries, which manages around $3 billion of assets :o

"The banks are dead men walking with massive leverage...Europe as a whole is about to embark on a sloppy financial market socialization process."

Rest of doom article here (http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_bullion_091420114)

DimPrawn
14th September 2011, 14:21
Who has done best out of Greece being in the Euro? Greece, EU, speculators or other? And who the worst?

If it's anything like Cyprus, they have done well out of it. Billions of German taxpayers Euros been flooding in in subsidies for new infrastructure etc.

DimPrawn
14th September 2011, 14:22
2-4% of GDP is nothing compared to what will happen if Greece defaults, and hence everyone else as well. If the Eurozone breaks up, banks will go bankrupt (check Iceland for the consequences, absolutely dire), the remaining Euro without the defaulters will shoot up strangling exports, not forgetting Germany exports mainly in the Euro zone, the ensuing credit crunch will casue a worldwide recession so exacerbating the recession, and there will be no credit, making it trebly worse. The consequences will easily wipe off the current growth around 2% for several years. Nope they'll keep Greece alive, because they've no choice. There may be a minimal default with nodding agreements from French banks, but there will be no full scale "hey guys we're bankrupt". Nope Germany may gnash it's teeth but in the end they'll pay.

WHS.

It's Germany pay up or pay for the next 20 years with a Euro wide depression and perhaps even a few wars thrown in.

Lockhouse
14th September 2011, 14:24
WHS.

It's Germany pay up or pay for the next 20 years with a Euro wide depression and perhaps even a few wars thrown in.

I reckon there'll be a managed default.

sasguru
14th September 2011, 14:28
French banks will need recapitalisation. But French government debt is about the same as British government debt NOW before anything happens.
British government debt was relatively low compared to France and Germany before this crisis.
And so the British government could put some money into our banks, France cannot afford to borrow more in order to do so.

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 14:29
I reckon there'll be a managed default.

Exactly - Then a managed dismantlement of the Eurozone.

Going back to national currencies (and devalue them) is the only way European countries will be able to reduce their debt (along with sacking half of the civil servants)

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 14:33
And so the British government could put some money into our banks

As they did in 2008?
What would the public opinion in the UK be if the government decides to recapitalizes UK banks one more time?

Doggy Styles
14th September 2011, 14:35
Let's not forget that this is the fault of every single person who supported the common currency. They never thought it through properly, did they.

Anyone over here in the UK who opposed the euro was called a Little Englander, a xenophobe, even a racist. "Left behind" was one of the more stupid pronouncements on the UK not joining.

Well, they were wrong and those opposing it were right, Q.E.D. The common currency is fast becoming the biggest financial disaster in peacetime since <pick your own date from long ago>.

sasguru
14th September 2011, 14:36
As they did in 2008?
What would the public opinion in the UK be if the government decides to recapitalizes UK banks one more time?

No I mean they have already done so and should not need to again, whereas if Greece goes bust, the French banks will have to be.
AFAIK British banks are not as exposed to Greece as the French and so should not need further recap. But who the fook knows?

eek
14th September 2011, 14:39
The common currency is fast becoming the biggest financial disaster in peacetime since <pick your own date from long ago>.

The introduction of the corn laws would be my guess. Although as that did benefit some people I don't think it counts.

doodab
14th September 2011, 14:48
No I mean they have already done so and should not need to again, whereas if Greece goes bust, the French banks will have to be.
AFAIK British banks are not as exposed to Greece as the French and so should not need further recap. But who the fook knows?

I expect the British banks will be slightly exposed to the French banks, and one shouldn't forget all that money made from credit derivatives probably came with an element of risk as well. It's hard to tell whether that will have much of an impact or not though, there don't seem to be any relevant published figures.

MarillionFan
14th September 2011, 14:48
Rightio. I'm back in cash.

Come out of the Euro you tax evading salad dodgers.

doodab
14th September 2011, 14:50
Sounds like the nuclear option is being floated.

BBC News - Commission president Barroso to put forward eurobonds (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14913517)

United states of Europe by 2020. You heard it here first. I think it's a great idea personally.

Churchill
14th September 2011, 14:51
Rightio. I'm back in cash.

Come out of the Euro you tax evading salad dodgers.

That's good then.

Do be sure to let everyone know when you go for a crap, there's a good boy.

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 14:53
Sounds like the nuclear option is being floated.

BBC News - Commission president Barroso to put forward eurobonds (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14913517)

United states of Europe by 2020. You heard it here first. I think it's a great idea personally.

I'm looking forward to see the interest rates on these bonds... probably going to be huge

MarillionFan
14th September 2011, 14:54
That's good then.

Do be sure to let everyone know when you go for a crap, there's a good boy.

I just have. And there you are.

sasguru
14th September 2011, 14:56
Sounds like the nuclear option is being floated.

BBC News - Commission president Barroso to put forward eurobonds (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14913517)

United states of Europe by 2020. You heard it here first. I think it's a great idea personally.

Unless you ride roughshod over the wishes of most Europeans, including Germans, they're not going to happen. Or not in time.
Constitutionally and politically unacceptable in germany after the recent court ruling.
I reckon the doom will happen before they can implement even a half-baked solution.

PS why is it a good idea? Clearly it would be good for Greece if the Germans guarantueed their debt. It would be a terrible idea for the Germans though

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 14:57
Would a second Greek bailout do the trick, or will it be an annual crisis?

Lockhouse
14th September 2011, 14:58
Whatever happens, it is uncharted territory - which makes it all quite interesting seeing history being made.

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 14:58
Time to buy beans?

sasguru
14th September 2011, 15:00
Would a second Greek bailout do the trick, ?

No. They need a constant infusion just to pay their debts and have no chance of generating any money themselves.
They have to go bust, or Germany has to agree to pay for them indefinitely - which is what a Eurobond is effectively.
Those are the only 2 choices.

BlasterBates
14th September 2011, 15:01
Euroland is in the news at the moment, but actually their debt is far smaller than the US. That is when the Eurobonds come, which they will, or something similar, the Eurozone will be stable. Its the US that will bring everything crashing down i.e. the Dollar experiment looks like it might fail. Even the pound experiment might unravel.

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 15:04
No. They need a constant infusion just to pay their debts and have no chance of generating any money themselves.
They have to go bust, or Germany has to agree to pay for them indefinitely - which is what a Eurobond is effectively.
Those are the only 2 choices.

Could the ECB not buy the debt back and apply a low or null rate?
Privatization of the national debts is what caused the mess in the first place (along with irresponsible government spendings)

EternalOptimist
14th September 2011, 15:04
Whatever happens, it is uncharted territory - which makes it all quite interesting seeing history being made.

Is it though?
I remember California being on the brink of bankruptcy a decade or so ago. So what happens in a federal system when one of the states goes belly up ?




:rolleyes:

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 15:07
Euroland is in the news at the moment, but actually their debt is far smaller than the US. That is when the Eurobonds come, which they will, or something similar, the Eurozone will be stable. Its the US that will bring everything crashing down i.e. the Dollar experiment looks like it might fail. Even the pound experiment might unravel.

US also has much more room to raise taxes than any european country. They have not completely dismantled and offshored their industry either (yet)

sasguru
14th September 2011, 15:09
Euroland is in the news at the moment, but actually their debt is far smaller than the US. That is when the Eurobonds come, which they will, or something similar, the Eurozone will be stable. Its the US that will bring everything crashing down i.e. the Dollar experiment looks like it might fail. Even the pound experiment might unravel.

Incorrect. The DEBT-GDP ratio is the relevant measure here and the US's is quite low:

List of sovereign states by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt)

DimPrawn
14th September 2011, 15:11
At least all this stops us worrying about the true end of the world....

Apocalypse Now: How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth (http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0206-01.htm)

Apocalypse Now: How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth
Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow.


A few Euros, who cares! when the world is being attacked by Carbon!

eek
14th September 2011, 15:13
Is it though?
I remember California being on the brink of bankruptcy a decade or so ago. So what happens in a federal system when one of the states goes belly up ?



Well California cut spending and sacked workers. Greece isn't doing any of that even though it claims to be doing so, so its hardly a reasonable example.

Normie
14th September 2011, 15:14
Over a year out of date, but the following diagram is interesting:

Europe's Web of Debt - Graphic - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html)

Greece may be bad, but if Italy goes tits up it looks a whole lot worse. Will have to have a search to see if I can find a more up to date diagram.

doodab
14th September 2011, 15:17
PS why is it a good idea? Clearly it would be good for Greece if the Germans guarantueed their debt. It would be a terrible idea for the Germans though

Because it would clearly require federal decision making and budgeting in order to work, thus forcing discipline on the weaker nations, and in the long term a US of Europe would offer German exporters a greatly expanded "domestic" market and the inevitable inter region subsidies would cancel out any balance of payment issues.

DimPrawn
14th September 2011, 15:17
Over a year out of date, but the following diagram is interesting:

Europe's Web of Debt - Graphic - NYTimes.com (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html)

Greece may be bad, but if Italy goes tits up it looks a whole lot worse. Will have to have a search to see if I can find a more up to date diagram.

Italian tits up....hmmmmmm... Monica Belluci

Incognito
14th September 2011, 15:19
If the Eurozone breaks up, banks will go bankrupt (check Iceland for the consequences, absolutely dire).

You do know that Iceland's economy is already on the road to recovery don't you? They're doing quite well as it happens, they have their own source of thermal power for producing their own internal power requirements, great fishing market and to top it all off, had laws passed last year to wipe over $1 billion of consumer credit out.

How's that dire?

www.mfa.is/media/MFA_pdf/Iceland's-Economy-Sept-2011.pdf

Mich the Tester
14th September 2011, 15:20
Italian tits up....hmmmmmm... Monica Belluci

http://www.greatitalians.com/Images/MonicaBellucci.jpg

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 15:20
What's Korfu worth? Might raise a few quid euros yuan.

Mich the Tester
14th September 2011, 15:21
What's Korfu worth? Might raise a few quid euros yuan.

With or without the English chavs?

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 15:21
Italian tits up....hmmmmmm... Monica Belluci

has good taste

she married a Frenchman

Vincent Cassel (http://preprod2.starwizz.com/wp-content/uploads/C/Vincent_Cassel/VincentCassel4.jpg)

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 15:22
You do know that Iceland's economy is already on the road to recovery don't you? They're doing quite well as it happens, they have their own source of thermal power for producing their own internal power requirements, great fishing market and to top it all off, had laws passed last year to wipe over $1 billion of consumer credit out.

How's that dire?

www.mfa.is/media/MFA_pdf/Iceland's-Economy-Sept-2011.pdf

Did they get rid of their bankers? Sadly the UK has no geothermal to speak of so we may need to keep ours. We do have wind I suppose.

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 15:24
With or without the English chavs?

With. You should see what they're willing to pay for a tiny tub of ice cream or a few badly cooked chips when on holiday. Not to mention what they pay to get in to clubs.

TimberWolf
14th September 2011, 15:32
The EU constitution should have provided for the calling in of bailiffs and the seizing assets. Its not as if Greece got in legally anyway. It appears they've pulled a fast one and want to continue with this wheeze as long as possible. Anyone got an army?

sasguru
14th September 2011, 15:34
Because it would clearly require federal decision making and budgeting in order to work, thus forcing German discipline on the weaker nations, and in the long term a US of Europe would offer German exporters a greatly expanded "domestic" market and the inevitable inter region subsidies would cancel out any balance of payment issues.

It would be a German hegemony and the people of Europe have long memories, which is why most have voted No to greater integration.
Of course certain politicians are ecstatic at the idea, they have most to gain from a corrupt oligarchical Europe.

Churchill
14th September 2011, 15:34
Italian tits up....hmmmmmm... Monica Belluci

Not valid without a picture of said lady.


has good taste

she married a Frenchman

Vincent Cassel (http://preprod2.starwizz.com/wp-content/uploads/C/Vincent_Cassel/VincentCassel4.jpg)

That's just a minor inconvenience.

doodab
14th September 2011, 15:38
the people of Europe have long memories, which is why most have voted No to greater integration.

I agree it will be difficult to implement, but I think the end result will be worth having and I wouldn't expect the ruling elite to be any more corrupt than any other government.

BlasterBates
14th September 2011, 15:46
You do know that Iceland's economy is already on the road to recovery don't you? They're doing quite well as it happens, they have their own source of thermal power for producing their own internal power requirements, great fishing market and to top it all off, had laws passed last year to wipe over $1 billion of consumer credit out.

How's that dire?

www.mfa.is/media/MFA_pdf/Iceland's-Economy-Sept-2011.pdf
Firstly Iceland did not go through a sovereign default, it's banks did. A sovereign default is dire. Why? because the governmnt can't pay pensioners and social security, it can't keep the schools open....Iceland doesn't have this problem, the government can continue. Check out Argentina, poverty doubling overnight and riots on the streets. Argentina is more comparable than Iceland. In Argentina communities resorted to barter, withdrawing cash from banks was not possible.

In addition when Greece defaults, it will bring the French banks crashing down, and severly weaken oither European banks. It will cause a worldwide credit crunch. remember Lehman ? well same thing with huge knobs on. This of course means no-one is going to rally round to help them out when pensioners (like in Argentina) find they have no money to buy food with.

..and where would Greece get it's inward investment from? Who would come to Greece?

Churchill
14th September 2011, 15:48
Firstly Iceland did not go through a sovereign default, it's banks did. A sovereign default is dire. Why? because the governmnt can't pay pensioners and social security, it can't keep the schools open....Iceland doesn't have this problem, the government can continue.

In addition when Greece defaults, it will bring the French banks crashing down, and severly weaken oither European banks. It will cause a worldwide credit crunch. remember Lehman ? well same thing with huge knobs on.

So where would Greece get it's inward investment from? Who would come to Greece?

The Trojans are after a bit of revenge...

On a serious note, Greece will not be allowed to fail.

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 15:52
The Trojans are after a bit of revenge...

On a serious note, Greece will not be allowed to fail.

What if the Greek government will quit the Eurozone on its own?
Will Brussels order for European tanks to run over Athens?

USSR of Europe?

Churchill
14th September 2011, 15:55
What if the Greek government will quit the Eurozone on its own?
Will Brussels order for European tanks to run over Athens?

USSR of Europe?

You're making a mistake discussing this sh!t with me. I haven't a ******** clue and I care even less.

Doggy Styles
14th September 2011, 16:03
On a serious note, Greece will not be allowed to fail.Isn't that like saying it will not be allowed to rain?

Le Rosbif
14th September 2011, 16:05
Isn't that like saying it will not be allowed to rain?

Nothing to worry about, it's coming from someone who hasn't a ******** clue and cares even less. (but still has an opinion and shares it)

Doggy Styles
14th September 2011, 16:05
They have to go bust, or Germany has to agree to pay for them indefinitely - which is what a Eurobond is effectively.
Those are the only 2 choices.What would be the difference between a Eurobond with the likes of Greece involved it, and all those toxic investments that caused the bank crisis?

doodab
14th September 2011, 16:13
What would be the difference between a Eurobond with the likes of Greece involved it, and all those toxic investments that caused the bank crisis?

Hard to say without knowing how the proposed eurobonds would work. Obviously if you had a federal government borrowing money and raising taxes that would be very different from the ECB selling CDOs.

sasguru
14th September 2011, 16:16
What would be the difference between a Eurobond with the likes of Greece involved it, and all those toxic investments that caused the bank crisis?

Not much I would say, you've got part of the bond which is quality (German debt) packaged with part that is crap (the PIIGS debt).
Or another way of looking at it is that you're buying German debt and assuming Germany can and will support the PIIGS long term.
Certainly I would imagine the EuroBond wouldn't be seen as rock solid as the current German Bund.

doodab
14th September 2011, 16:19
Not much I would say, you've got part of the bond which is quality (German debt) packaged with part that is crap (the PIIGS debt).
Or another way of looking at it is that you're buying German debt and assuming Germany can and will support the PIIGS long term.
Certainly I would imagine the EuroBond wouldn't be seen as rock solid as the current German Bund.

Or it could be more like say US treasury bonds .vs. bonds issued by individual states, in which case the Eurobond would be pretty well regarded. It really depends on how they are to work.

Incognito
14th September 2011, 16:32
Firstly Iceland did not go through a sovereign default, it's banks did.

That's not what you said though, you said and I quote:


If the Eurozone breaks up, banks will go bankrupt (check Iceland for the consequences, absolutely dire).

That's got nothing to do with sovereign default and if the Irish had done the same instead of guaranteeing the banks then chance are they'd be looking at recovery sometime soon as well.

When Iceland put their fingers up to the world, the money markets said they'd neve lend to them again, then they changed that to within 10 years, then 5 years and guess what, they're now talking about opening up the international money markets to them again 'soon'.

BlasterBates
14th September 2011, 16:51
That's not what you said though, you said and I quote:



That's got nothing to do with sovereign default and if the Irish had done the same instead of guaranteeing the banks then chance are they'd be looking at recovery sometime soon as well.

When Iceland put their fingers up to the world, the money markets said they'd neve lend to them again, then they changed that to within 10 years, then 5 years and guess what, they're now talking about opening up the international money markets to them again 'soon'.

Yes but what you have to remember is, after the banks in Iceland defaulted, the Icelandic government could still spend as much as it could beforehand, i.e. it could still pay salaries, pensions etc. In the case of Greece, a sovereign default would mean this would no longer be possible. This is why Greece isn't going down this route. Ireland could have done, because Ireland is solvent (as a government); I agree that this was a viable solution for Ireland. However one thing to be borne in mind, the Icelandic government couldn't have bailed out it's banks, it really was too big. I'll guarantee you one thing if the debt has been a lot smaller they would have paid it off, because it would still be cheaper in the long run than a bankruptcy.

When a country defaults it's cost of borrowing will be permanently higher. New York defaulted in the 1970's and it's still paying a premium for debt 40 years later, i.e. they're permanently economically handicapped.

Of course once the ensuing credit crunch is over the financial markets will eventually lend to Greece, but they'll demand high interest. But what do they do with all those pensioners, public sector workers, and social security "scroungers" until theire economy begins to recover in several years. Several years is a long time not to pay people. If Greece defaults and the Greek public sector workers get IOU's instead of cash, there will be widespread rioting.

If the Greek government thought they could stick two fingers up at the EU, default, and live happily ever after, they'd do it.

Even Obama is sh*tting bricks at the prospect of a Greek default.

DimPrawn
14th September 2011, 17:39
The root of all sovereign-debt crises (http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/the-root-of-all-sovereign-debt-crises.html)

DimPrawn
14th September 2011, 21:56
Britain to sue ECB over threat to City - FT.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/146a256e-dee1-11e0-9130-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XxypZR36)

aussielong
15th September 2011, 01:16
Yesterday they were trading at a 84% yield. If Greece will not default then these Two Year Government Bond Acting as Benchmark Greece (GGGB2YR:IND) Index Performance - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND) bonds are good value aren't they?