Pros and cons of the UK leaving the EU

[doodab]

I would be interested to hear cogent arguments for and against.

The EU is our biggest trading partner and leaving it would jeopardise a lot of British jobs. The likes of Nissan & Toyota would be more likely to make future investment in the EU, especially if the EU were to impose import duties or quotas on cars manufactured in Britain. The chances of London remaining the largest financial centre in the EU would be diminished if the UK no longer had a say in shaping EU regulation.

So on that basis I think we should remain in the EU.

On the other hand, it's arguably never going to work unless the scale and ambition of the project is reduced, or it's restructured to have a two tier system with a "tightly integrated zone" and a wider "free trade area" encompassing the likes of the UK. This to me implies we're on the way to becoming a second class member whether we want to or not.

[TimberWolf]

Cons:

UK seems to get shafted more than anyone bar Germany

Epic immigration to the UK, which appears to be continuing unabated. If people are to live on top of each other at a European minimum wage here, any benefits are dwarfed

Cost, including troughing by politicians, unaccountability, corruption and waste

Pros: I like the idea of being able to move freely in Europe and having common standards

[doodab]

Epic immigration to the UK, which appears to be continuing unabated. If people are to live on top of each other at a European minimum wage here, any benefits are dwarfed

Most immigrants are from outside the EU though. 155 thousand EU citizens arrived, 91 thousand left, making a net migration of around 64 thousand EU citizens. The total net migration to the UK is around 225 thousand people, so when you factor in the net exodus of British people (about 40 thousand) that means over 200 thousand non-EU citizens came to the UK in 2010. Most of them for study, or so they say.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_223724.pdf

Also worth remembering that immigration policy is greatly influenced by business who want cheap labour.

[SimonMac]

Leaving the EU means we can bring back the death penalty, preferably for crimes against recruitment.

[Doggy Styles]

The EU is our biggest trading partner and leaving it would jeopardise a lot of British jobs. The likes of Nissan & Toyota would be more likely to make future investment in the EU, especially if the EU were to impose import duties or quotas on cars manufactured in Britain. The chances of London remaining the largest financial centre in the EU would be diminished if the UK no longer had a say in shaping EU regulation.

The UK buys more from the rest of the EU than they do from us. They are hardly likely to impose barriers while that is the case.

[Doggy Styles]

On the other hand, it's arguably never going to work unless the scale and ambition of the project is reduced, or it's restructured to have a two tier system with a "tightly integrated zone" and a wider "free trade area" encompassing the likes of the UK. This to me implies we're on the way to becoming a second class member whether we want to or not.

Emotive. It would not be second class at all.

The UK would have a looser free-trade relationship, which is all the UK voted for at the 1975 referendum.

[TimberWolf]

Could the EU afford the UK to leave? What with us paying in so much and taking so little out.

[doodab]

Emotive. It would not be second class at all.

If there were a two tier EU and we were part of the second tier we would certainly loose influence over inner circle policy making. There have already been attempts to freeze the UK out of Eurozone crisis meetings, it seems obvious that if we didn't sign up for the further integration option we aren't going to have much of a say in how it works.

[doodab]

The UK buys more from the rest of the EU than they do from us. They are hardly likely to impose barriers while that is the case.

The UK runs a trade deficit with pretty much everybody, it doesn't stop them imposing trade barriers.

To some extent there are already barriers, some estimates put the cost of business complying with EU regulation at > £20 billion per year. At the moment we get to influence that regulation. If we left, we might not have as much of a say over it, but we would still have to comply with a lot of it in order to sell our products to the EU.

[OwlHoot]

The UK runs a trade deficit with pretty much everybody, it doesn't stop them imposing trade barriers.

To some extent there are already barriers, some estimates put the cost of business complying with EU regulation at > £20 billion per year. At the moment we get to influence that regulation. If we left, we might not have as much of a say over it, but we would still have to comply with a lot of it in order to sell our products to the EU.

In that event we could join NAFTA, and then any silly games the EU might start would be amply requited by US trade restrictions

I still reckon there's a risk of things slowly drifting towards an EU-US punch up in 20 or 30 years, if not sooner.