Is this going to be dot com bust all over again?

[Sysman]

Telegraph

Facebook could be worth more than $100bn as IPO oversubscribed

...

The company is seeking to raise $10.6bn at its initial public offfering and has set a target range of $28 to $35 a share, valuing the business at up to $96bn.

...

One large institutional investor that had already put in a major order for shares on Wednesday has been trying to acquire more from syndicate desks, according to Reuters.

...

On Thursday, Facebook warned investors that the surge of people accessing Facebook on their mobiles or tablet devices was threatening the company’s long-term financial prospects, because it had not yet worked out how to monetise that usage.

It changed its IPO filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to warn that, should this trend continue: “Our financial performance and ability to grow revenue would be negatively affected.”

The social network has already gone some way to try to remedy the problem by launching its own app store, but analysts said the ammendment effectively amounted to a profit warning.

Why am I thinking of Lastminute.com?

[AtW]

It's boom time ...

[Doggy Styles]

At least lastminute.com survived.

Remember BOO.com? Or more pertinently theGlobe.com (an early go at the same market as facebook)

[AtW]

Remember BOO.com?

It crashed just before company I worked for planned to have IPO which was cancelled as the result

[eek]

At least lastminute.com survived.

Remember BOO.com? Or more pertinently theGlobe.com (an early go at the same market as facebook)

Remember? I worked there until the first lot of cost cutting in Feb 2000 when my agency suggested a rapid departure which I did.

[Spacecadet]

Much as Google won the search wars, so facebook has/is winning the social network war.
If this was 5 years ago and it was myspace I could see your point as there were then other viable alternatives. Now there is no real challenger to facebook.

[administrator]

boo.com was mental beyond belief though. Still have a couple of boxes from them from when Mrs Admin ordered some clothes. Was insane in terms of the packaging, all branded and also contained some fold-away rain jacket or something like that for free.

One good thing about FB is the volume of users, the only real threat from that direction is Google's +1. Google have the money to keep going at their social media offering where FB only has the promise of money. Had never thought about the threat to FB being mobile but of course, the smaller interfaces leave no room for ads and therefore revenue. They are fux'd.

In response to your question though sysman, I am not sure if we are about to hit another major bust or not. I am not sure we have the volume of terribly over-valued companies that we had then, the glut of cash is in other markets. But in terms of FB crashing, I do hope so - MZ looks like a complete c0ck IMO. Can he see that his company is vastly over-valued? Seeing how much he thought he could buy Instagram for, probably not - he believes his own BS.

[administrator]

Much as Google won the search wars, so facebook has/is winning the social network war.
If this was 5 years ago and it was myspace I could see your point as there were then other viable alternatives. Now there is no real challenger to facebook.

I think G will challenge hard, they have the time and the money, FB only has the users and they can and will switch. If FB shares are launched and die, investors lose their nerve and the money dries up they have one hell of an expensive infrastructure to keep up. Not many could afford to buy (apart from the big G) and a decline in service would leave the door open for Google too.

Off out get some sun!

[eek]

boo.com was mental beyond belief though. Still have a couple of boxes from them from when Mrs Admin ordered some clothes. Was insane in terms of the packaging, all branded and also contained some fold-away rain jacket or something like that for free.

Not a bright orange frisbee I have hundreds of those ignoring the bits of my wardrobe which are still in use (North Face Jacket retail £200 to me 140 danish krona due to flaw in website).

One good thing about FB is the volume of users, the only real threat from that direction is Google's +1. Google have the money to keep going at their social media offering where FB only has the promise of money. Had never thought about the threat to FB being mobile but of course, the smaller interfaces leave no room for ads and therefore revenue. They are fux'd.

In response to your question though sysman, I am not sure if we are about to hit another major bust or not. I am not sure we have the volume of terribly over-valued companies that we had then, the glut of cash is in other markets. But in terms of FB crashing, I do hope so - MZ looks like a complete c0ck IMO. Can he see that his company is vastly over-valued? Seeing how much he thought he could buy Instagram for, probably not - he believes his own BS.

Google +1 is as dead as a dodo. The real problem is the only market for Facebook is low value marketing. Google's advertising is just before the point of sale and is worth money because it attracts customers when they are interested. On facebook you are advertising to people looking at other things its good for branding purposes but not for anything else.

Finally there is a reason why Instagram was offered a billion. MZ almost sold Facebook to Yahoo for that magic figure. The following week Yahoo announced a profit warning reduced the offer down to $850m and he walked away.

[Pondlife]

Had never thought about the threat to FB being mobile but of course, the smaller interfaces leave no room for ads and therefore revenue. They are fux'd.

WAS.

Not sure how they can deal with this. As the prevalence of tablets/phone surfing via apps grows, where they gonna stick the ads?