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mrdonuts
18th June 2012, 08:26
initial pop and its all heading south again

cant see any light at the end of this particular tunnel at the moment

MarillionFan
18th June 2012, 08:31
initial pop and its all heading south again

cant see any light at the end of this particular tunnel at the moment

Weird. When I looked a while back everything was up and the banks were flying. The board is now red???

DodgyAgent
18th June 2012, 08:32
initial pop and its all heading south again

cant see any light at the end of this particular tunnel at the moment

Well said Boris

t is one of the tragic delusions of the human race that we believe in the inevitability of progress. We look around us, and we seem to see a glorious affirmation that our ruthless species of homo is getting ever more sapiens. We see ice cream Snickers bars and in vitro babies and beautiful electronic pads on which you can paint with your fingertip and – by heaven – suitcases with wheels! Think of it: we managed to put a man on the moon about 35 years before we came up with wheelie-suitcases; and yet here they are. They have completely displaced the old type of suitcase, the ones with a handle that you used to lug puffing down platforms.
Aren’t they grand? Life seems impossible without them, and soon they will no doubt be joined by so many other improvements – acne cures, electric cars, electric suitcases – that we will be strengthened in our superstition that history is a one-way ratchet, an endless click click click forwards to a nirvana of liberal democratic free-market brotherhood of man. Isn’t that what history teaches us, that humanity is engaged in a remorseless ascent?
On the contrary: history teaches us that the tide can suddenly and inexplicably go out, and that things can lurch backwards into darkness and squalor and appalling violence. The Romans gave us roads and aqueducts and glass and sanitation and all the other benefits famously listed by Monty Python; indeed, they were probably on the verge of discovering the wheely-suitcase when they went into decline and fall in the fifth century AD.
Whichever way you look at it, this was a catastrophe for the human race. People in Britain could no longer read or write. Life-expectancy plummeted to about 32, and the population fell. The very cattle shrunk at the withers. The secret of the hypocaust was forgotten, and chilblain-ridden swineherds built sluttish huts in the ruins of the villas, driving their post-holes through the mosaics. In the once bustling Roman city of London (for instance) we find no trace of human habitation save for a mysterious black earth that may be a relic of a fire or some primitive system of agriculture.
It took hundreds of years before the population was restored to Roman levels. If we think that no such disaster could happen again, we are not just arrogant but forgetful of the lessons of the very recent past. Never mind the empty temples of the Aztecs or the Incas or the reproachful beehive structures of the lost civilisation of Great Zimbabwe. Look at our own era: the fate of European Jewry, massacred in the lifetimes of our parents and grandparents, on the deranged orders of an elected government in what had been one of the most civilised countries on earth; or look at the skyline of modern German cities, and mourn those medieval buildings blown to smithereens in an uncontrollable cycle of revenge. Yes, when things go backwards, they can go backwards fast. Technology, liberty, democracy, comfort – they can all go out of the window. However complacent we may be, in the words of the poet Geoffrey Hill, “Tragedy has us under regard”. Nowhere is that clearer than in Greece today.

Every day we read of fresh horrors: of once proud bourgeois families queuing for bread, of people in agony because the government has run out of money to pay for cancer drugs. Pensions are being cut, living standards are falling, unemployment is rising, and the suicide rate is now the highest in the EU – having been one of the lowest.
By any standards we are seeing a whole nation undergo a protracted economic and political humiliation; and whatever the result of yesterday’s election, we seem determined to make matters worse. There is no plan for Greece to leave the euro, or none that I can discover. No European leader dares suggest that this might be possible, since that would be to profane the religion of Ever Closer Union. Instead we are all meant to be conniving in a plan to create a fiscal union which (if it were to mean anything) would mean undermining the fundamentals of Western democracy.
This forward-marching concept of history – the idea of inexorable political and economic progress – is really a modern one. In ancient times, it was common to speak of lost golden ages or forgotten republican virtues or prelapsarian idylls. It is only in the past few hundred years that people have switched to the “Whig” interpretation, and on the face of it one can forgive them for their optimism. We have seen the emancipation of women, the extension of the franchise to all adult human beings, the acceptance that there should be no taxation without representation and the general understanding that people should be democratically entitled to determine their own fates.
And now look at what is being proposed in Greece. For the sake of bubble-gumming the euro together, we are willing to slaughter democracy in the very place where it was born. What is the point of a Greek elector voting for an economic programme, if that programme is decided in Brussels or – in reality – in Germany? What is the meaning of Greek freedom, the freedom Byron fought for, if Greece is returned to a kind of Ottoman dependency, but with the Sublime Porte now based in Berlin?
It won’t work. If things go on as they are, we will see more misery, more resentment, and an ever greater chance that the whole damn kebab van will go up in flames. Greece will one day be free again – in the sense that I still think it marginally more likely than not that whoever takes charge in Athens will eventually find a way to restore competitiveness through devaluation and leaving the euro – for this simple reason: that market confidence in Greek membership is like a burst paper bag of rice – hard to restore.
Without a resolution, without clarity, I am afraid the suffering will go on. The best way forward would be an orderly bisection into an old eurozone and a New Eurozone for the periphery. With every month of dither, we delay the prospect of a global recovery; while the approved solution – fiscal and political union – will consign the continent to a democratic dark ages.

NorthWestPerm2Contr
18th June 2012, 08:32
Weird. When I looked a while back everything was up and the banks were flying. The board is now red???

Cos there is still no solution.....

MarillionFan
18th June 2012, 08:33
Cos there is still no solution.....

The sooner Germany comes up with a final solution the better.

:nerd

Waldorf
18th June 2012, 08:34
I do not think this election result has achieved anything, this drama is now going to drag on even longer, at least if the left had won, we would hopefully seen a quicker Greek exit from the Euro and perhaps a start to the end of this tragedy.

I cannot see any future for Greece in the Euro unless there is a dramatic change of heart by the Germans, and I cannot see this until after the German elections in 2013.

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 08:49
Well said Boris...

...With every month of dither, we delay the prospect of a global recovery; while the approved solution – fiscal and political union – will consign the continent to a democratic dark ages.

[/B][/I]
Yep, a lot to agree with there; time to accept the euro was an experiment and that real change is needed. Also time for so-called 'leaders' to stop prevaricating and work out a way forward that recognises the differences between European economies. The dithering is now killing people.

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 08:53
Isn't more appropriate to look at the Greek stock market?

FTSE/ATHEX 20 Kurs - Realtime - Chart - News - Indizes - OnVista (http://www.onvista.de/index/snapshot.html?ID_NOTATION=1340538)

The FTSE is a reflection of what is happening in the UK.

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 08:55
The FTSE is a reflection of what is happening in the UK.

No it isn't; it's a reflection of what's going on in the minds of investors and 'analysts' all over the world, and their perception of 'what's going on in the UK' and the countries with which UK businesses trade.

sasguru
18th June 2012, 08:55
Yep, a lot to agree with there; time to accept the euro was an experiment and that real change is needed. Also time for so-called 'leaders' to stop prevaricating and work out a way forward that recognises the differences between European economies. The dithering is now killing people.

You've got to blame Angela Merkel.
A leader she is not - if she wants to keep the Euro she should communicate its importance to the German voter and persuade them that it's in their interest to keep subbing the weaker nations.
If she doesn't believe that, its time to form a breakaway pact of the stronger nations and let the weaker ones exit and find their own level.
Instead she's drifting along complacently hoping for the best.
Greece is bust, the Spanish baks are bust - that isn't going to magically change.
History will judge her harshly should this all go belly up.

sasguru
18th June 2012, 08:56
Isn't more appropriate to look at the Greek stock market?

FTSE/ATHEX 20 Kurs - Realtime - Chart - News - Indizes - OnVista (http://www.onvista.de/index/snapshot.html?ID_NOTATION=1340538)

The FTSE is a reflection of what is happening in the UK.

There really is no limit to your cretinism eh? :laugh:laugh:laugh

mrdonuts
18th June 2012, 08:57
only if your a muppet investing in a market which has lost > 90% of its value

FTSE/ATHEX 20 Kurs - Realtime - Chart - News - Indizes - OnVista (http://www.onvista.de/index/snapshot.html?ID_NOTATION=1340538&MONTHS=60#chart)


italy and spain are firmly in the red and are much more significant markets

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 09:03
He who dares (http://profitimes.com/free-articles/greece-will-the-real-contrarian-please-stand-up/)
...and incidentally I'm already up :smokin


Preusmably you wait until everyone is optimistic and you take advice from your hairdresser.

eek
18th June 2012, 09:03
You've got to blame Angela Merkel.
A leader she is not - if she wants to keep the Euro she should communicate its importance to the German voter and persuade them that it's in their interest to keep subbing the weaker nations.
If she doesn't believe that, its time to form a breakaway pact of the stronger nations and let the weaker ones exit and find their own level.
Instead she's drifting along complacently hoping for the best.
Greece is bust, the Spanish baks are bust - that isn't going to magically change.
History will judge her harshly when this all go belly up.

FTFY as the conclusion is as inevitable as night follows day.

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 09:04
You've got to blame Angela Merkel.
A leader she is not - if she wants to keep the Euro she should communicate its importance to the German voter and persuade them that it's in their interest to keep subbing the weaker nations.
If she doesn't believe that, its time to form a breakaway pact of the stronger nations and let the weaker ones exit and find their own level.
Instead she's drifting along complacently hoping for the best.
Greece is bust, the Spanish baks are bust - that isn't going to magically change.
History will judge her harshly should this all go belly up.

I used to be an admirer of Mrs Merkel; she's impressively intelligent and I like her stubbornness, reminds me a little of another very intelligent scientifically trained female leader, and I'm sure you can guess her name. But there comes a point where you have to recognise that the policy isn't working and it's time to change tack. I'd be quite happy for northern Europe to set up a Neuro or a sort of Hanseatic euro, and accept the costs of helping southern Europe to recover and taking the hit on the unpaid loans, but it has to be part of an approach which offers some perspective of getting the economy(ies) back on track; at the moment I see absolutely no direction or strategy, and that can't be a good thing.

russell
18th June 2012, 09:21
Love all the armchair politicians, who probably some of whom are barley employable in low-medium skilled role never mind running a country. The only thing that would be changing if one of you lot were in charge would be your underwear.

Doggy Styles
18th June 2012, 09:22
You've got to blame Angela Merkel. I'm not so sure. She inherited that crock of tulip called the common currency.

There is really no way out for her. Upset your own people by subsidising other nations forever, or upset other nations forever by leaving them to it.

Fiscal and political union will go down like a lead balloon among the eurozone populace, the alternative of breaking up the euro will cause turmoil.

Whatever she does her future looks pretty hopeless.

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 09:24
Love all the armchair politicians, who probably some of whom are barley employable in low-medium skilled role never mind running a country. The only thing that would be changing if one of you lot were in charge would be your underwear.

' A superior man is modest in his speech, but exceeds in his actions.'

Think about it.

sasguru
18th June 2012, 09:25
The only thing that would be changing if one of you lot were in charge would be your underwear.

Which is going one better than you, stinky.

DodgyAgent
18th June 2012, 09:26
Isn't more appropriate to look at the Greek stock market?

FTSE/ATHEX 20 Kurs - Realtime - Chart - News - Indizes - OnVista (http://www.onvista.de/index/snapshot.html?ID_NOTATION=1340538)

The FTSE is a reflection of what is happening in the UK.

Is that really the narrow prism through which you see this?

chef
18th June 2012, 09:26
He who dares (http://profitimes.com/free-articles/greece-will-the-real-contrarian-please-stand-up/)
...and incidentally I'm already up :smokin


Preusmably you wait until everyone is optimistic and you take advice from your hairdresser.

you did read the caveat at the bottom of your article didn't you?

There’s only one catch here: If you buy stocks now and Greece devaluates its currency (after exiting the Eurozone), you could lose sh*tloads of money due to the currency devaluation.
Therefore, I will wait until the moment that that happens. That day, I will buy the HELL out of HELLAS stocks…

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 09:35
Is that really the narrow prism through which you see this?

I find it interesting how exports in the first half of 2012 are increasing in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy, and declining in the UK.

Doesn't really fit with your narrative does it.

eek
18th June 2012, 09:41
I find it interesting how exports in the first half of 2012 are increasing in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy, and declining in the UK.

Doesn't really fit with your narrative does it.

Its hardly surprising as the economist showed last November Economics focus: Exports to Mars | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/node/21538100)


the world exported $331 billion more than it imported in 2010, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The fund forecasts that the global current-account surplus will rise to almost $700 billion by 2014.

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 09:43
you did read the caveat at the bottom of your article didn't you?

If you invest in an exporter you won't be impacted by a devaluation. In other words earnngs in Dollars.

Lot of excellent opportunities.

I think however the exit from the Euro is unlikely and the potential gains from non-exporters are considerably higher. So at current valuations any risk you take would be amply rewarded, i.e. losses from the Drachma would be offset from gains in the stock price.

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 09:45
Its hardly surprising as the economist showed last November Economics focus: Exports to Mars | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/node/21538100)

But the UK performed badly. How do you explain that? Presumably a disadvantage of not being in the Euro.

Just pointing that out. Not every country increased it's exports.

DodgyAgent
18th June 2012, 09:47
I find it interesting how exports in the first half of 2012 are increasing in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy, and declining in the UK.

Doesn't really fit with your narrative does it.

It is a not a debate about we are better than them is it? It is a debate about democracy and sovereignty and economic advancement. You seem intellectually incapable of grasping this.

What you are saying if applied to the points in Boris's narrative is that the increase of exports in Ireland, Portugal and Greece are such that these economies will soon be out of trouble and that Boris is wrong then fine. But you are not. You have (selectively) picked some statistics and made the utterly irrelevant point that one country is exporting faster than another.

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 09:55
It is a not a debate about we are better than them is it? It is a debate about democracy and sovereignty and economic advancement. You seem intellectually incapable of grasping this.

What you are saying if applied to the points in Boris's narrative is that the increase of exports in Ireland, Portugal and Greece are such that these economies will soon be out of trouble and that Boris is wrong then fine. But you are not. You have (selectively) picked some statistics and made the utterly irrelevant point that one country is exporting faster than another.

Yes we will see won't we. But take note Portugal and Ireland have moved quietly out of the headlines. I think you may see the same with Greece. Spain and perhaps Italy still has some way to go.

Greece voted for a pro-Euro party. Presumably your view of democracy is that only if a country votes for a party that you agree with is it democracy. Incidentally the only anti-European parties standing in recent elections were all faschist.

You need to accept that Greece voted democratically for a pro-Euro and pro-European party. Perhaps Boris should respect the democratic decision of the Greeks, rather than arrogantly assuming that because he's a mayor responsible for errecting traffic signs he somehow knows better.

mrdonuts
18th June 2012, 09:55
"Spain is not Greece" - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, February 2010.
"Portugal is not Greece" - The Economist, April 2010.
"Greece is not Ireland" - George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance minister, November 2010.
"Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal" - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, November 2010.
"Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory’" - Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. November 2010.
"Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland" - Angel Gurria, Secretary-general OECD, November 2010.
"Italy is not Spain” - Ed Parker, Fitch MD, June 12, 2012
"Spain is not Uganda" - Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy, June 2012
"Uganda does not want to be Spain" - Ugandan foreign minister, June 13, 2012

:laugh:laugh

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 09:57
"Spain is not Greece" - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, February 2010.
"Portugal is not Greece" - The Economist, April 2010.
"Greece is not Ireland" - George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance minister, November 2010.
"Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal" - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, November 2010.
"Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory’" - Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. November 2010.
"Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland" - Angel Gurria, Secretary-general OECD, November 2010.
"Italy is not Spain” - Ed Parker, Fitch MD, June 12, 2012
"Spain is not Uganda" - Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy, June 2012
"Uganda does not want to be Spain" - Ugandan foreign minister, June 13, 2012

:laugh:laugh:laugh

sasguru
18th June 2012, 09:57
"Spain is not Greece" - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, February 2010.
"Portugal is not Greece" - The Economist, April 2010.
"Greece is not Ireland" - George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance minister, November 2010.
"Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal" - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, November 2010.
"Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory’" - Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. November 2010.
"Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland" - Angel Gurria, Secretary-general OECD, November 2010.
"Italy is not Spain” - Ed Parker, Fitch MD, June 12, 2012
"Spain is not Uganda" - Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy, June 2012
"Uganda does not want to be Spain" - Ugandan foreign minister, June 13, 2012

:laugh:laugh

:laugh:laugh:laugh
Spain would love Uganda's growth rate of 5% p.a.

Doggy Styles
18th June 2012, 10:01
Who said this about the Greek deficit crisis, on this board, back in November?

"Never mind. It will probably blow over over the next few weeks."

BlasterBates
18th June 2012, 10:07
Who said this about the Greek deficit crisis, on this board, back in November?

"Never mind. It will probably blow over over the next few weeks."

I do recall at the time everyone was predicting the imminent melt down of the Euro with yields spiralling out of control.

lukemg
18th June 2012, 10:49
First - the Germans can't afford to just cave in and splash the cash, the same mob will have their hands out next year if they don't link it too vicious cuts in public sector costs.
Same as in UK, during a crisis is the only time you can cut public spending, any other time and you are out.
Sooner rather than later, people in all these countries will vote for whoever offers the least pain to them personally. Greece have got the eurozone by the spuds but that is going down every day as everyone is looking to limit the damage/exposure.
Krauts will cough up quite simply because the exit will cost them more but it will be called something else, routed through ECB, IMF etc.

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 10:52
First - the Germans can't afford to just cave in and splash the cash, the same mob will have their hands out next year if they don't link it too vicious cuts in public sector costs.
Same as in UK, during a crisis is the only time you can cut public spending, any other time and you are out.
Sooner rather than later, people in all these countries will vote for whoever offers the least pain to them personally. Greece have got the eurozone by the spuds but that is going down every day as everyone is looking to limit the damage/exposure.
Krauts will cough up quite simply because the exit will cost them more but it will be called something else, routed through ECB, IMF etc.

Northern Europe will have to send money to Greece anyway, regardless of whether there's a euro. It has to do that because the risks of a failed state in a strategic location, bordering Turkey and the Balkans and possessing a large army are simply beyond the imagination of the average pampered European nitwit. The Greek state will need to be helped to remain stable, whether we like it or not. Now I'd like some of our so-called 'leaders' to get out and explain that to the hoi polloi.

mrdonuts
18th June 2012, 11:01
spanish bond yields cranking up again 7.1 :bluelight

sasguru
18th June 2012, 11:16
spanish bond yields cranking up again 7.1 :bluelight

Dear Mr Donuts,

Don't worry - it's a sign of how healthy the Spanish economy is with its vast export growth.

Yours sincerely,
BlasterBates.

:rollin::rollin:

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 11:22
Dear Mr Donuts,

Don't worry - it's a sign of how healthy the Spanish economy is with its vast export growth.

Yours sincerely,
BlasterBates.

:rollin::rollin:

Spanish, Greek, Italian and Portuguese exports do tend to rise in the first half of each year as Northern Europeans book their holidays.

They export a lot to Holland each year during the last week of May; not entirely coincidentally that's when Dutch employees get a month's holiday pay in their bank accounts. Bank overdrafts in NL tend to fall in the same week, only to start rising again a few weeks later.

DimPrawn
18th June 2012, 11:29
If

Scientists Use Sunlight to Make Fuel From CO2 (http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/01/S2P)

Can be commercialised, countries like Span and Italy might become exporters of methanol and other fuels to northern Europe.

Malcolm Buggeridge
18th June 2012, 11:31
Meanwhile, over in Spain

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Business/Pix/pictures/2012/6/18/1340017633684/Miners-fire-handmade-rock-006.jpg

Mich the Tester
18th June 2012, 11:34
Meanwhile, over in Spain

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Business/Pix/pictures/2012/6/18/1340017633684/Miners-fire-handmade-rock-006.jpg

Ooh look out Sir, you could have someone's eye out with that!

sirja
18th June 2012, 11:49
As usual it'll be the US that restores some confidence in the short term, with anoter round of QE. Until then the path of least resistance is to sell into any railes/short railes.

Long term the US will have to face up to it's own looming fiscal clif but hey, we'll jump off that bridge when it comes:smile