Obama has about 80% chance of winning the election ...

[sasguru]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Based on a meta-analyis of the polls with some additional modelling. An interesting approach.

Been reading Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" - very interesting indeed.

[NotAllThere]

** SORRY THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN 80% ** Mods can you please change?.

At your service.

I think it's about right.

[Robinho]

They both deserve to lose.

[sasguru]

At your service.

I think it's about right.

Ta muchly ...

[sasguru]

They both deserve to lose.

Whatever.

[minestrone]

I want the republicans to win but they have to take the blame for putting an absolute throbber in Romney up this time. Guy is a complete cocksocket.

[Robinho]

The third guy running Gary Johnson is a pretty good choice. Like a younger less zany Ron Paul.

[OwlHoot]

I want the republicans to win but they have to take the blame for putting an absolute throbber in Romney up this time. Guy is a complete cocksocket.

WHS, although I haven't really been following it.

Didn't Romney write quite a cogent book? If so one can't claim he's thick (unless it was all ghost-written, or a load of bollox).

[minestrone]

Today was busy but had a chance to read through the site and quite a good read.

Very interesting is forecasting, wrote a fairly substantial body of code that would screen scrape football results and fixtures then worked out probabilities based on prior results.

Worked quite well but phase 2 was taking the odds and doing arbitrage on the probabilities and picking out sound bets where you could make the most money on.

Not enough hours in the day.

[doodab]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Based on a meta-analyis of the polls with some additional modelling. An interesting approach.

Been reading Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" - very interesting indeed.

That looks like a good one, I might buy that for my kindle.