Hmmm. But where is this evidence?

[xoggoth]

Supposedly we will lose 92bn a year by leaving the EU:

British business: We need to stay in the European Union - or risk losing up to £92bn a year - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

It could be true but I cannot find any studies whatever that quantify the benefit. Knowing what utter nonsense similar studies, like the 2007 Home Office report, on the befits of immigration are, I am highly sceptical of such claims by those with a vested interest. One would imagine that if real evidence existed they would want to publicise it.

Anyone actually got any links to serious impartial studies?

[bobspud]

Supposedly we will lose 92bn a year by leaving the EU:

British business: We need to stay in the European Union - or risk losing up to £92bn a year - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

It could be true but I cannot find any studies whatever that quantify the benefit. Knowing what utter nonsense similar studies, like the 2007 Home Office report, on the befits of immigration are, I am highly sceptical of such claims by those with a vested interest. One would imagine that if real evidence existed they would want to publicise it.

Anyone actually got any links to serious impartial studies?

First law of analysing a statement from any lobby group is ask to see the assumptions in their figures and watch for the silence...

[eek]

First law of analysing a statement from any lobby group is ask to see the assumptions in their figures and watch for the silence...

The worrying times are when they produce their assumptions and you have to listen while keeping a straight face.

[xoggoth]

It's "UP TO" of course. Love that little phrase. Even by their reckoning it could only be £31bn. One cannot help but feel that figures that have an error factor of 3 between lower and upper estimates are not terribly reliable.

One assumes they take account for the quantifiable £13bn we pay to EU budgets but what else? Do they even take account of having our own fishing waters again? On rough checks I reckon that could be worth 3bn alone.

[Doggy Styles]

So what are their assumptions? I'll start:

1. The EU will make it more difficult for UK companies to trade with them.
2. Foreign companies will stop operating here because they won't be able to sell into the EU any more.
3. With removal of free movement of labour, the UK will have less people selling their skills into the rest of the EU, and will not benefit from other EU workers coming here.
4. With London outside the EU, Frankfurt will take most of the UK's financial services business away.
5. We will lose our EU rebate.
6. We will never be allowed to join the Euro.

[DodgyAgent]

Supposedly we will lose 92bn a year by leaving the EU:

British business: We need to stay in the European Union - or risk losing up to £92bn a year - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

It could be true but I cannot find any studies whatever that quantify the benefit. Knowing what utter nonsense similar studies, like the 2007 Home Office report, on the befits of immigration are, I am highly sceptical of such claims by those with a vested interest. One would imagine that if real evidence existed they would want to publicise it.

Anyone actually got any links to serious impartial studies?

I have just read some of your blogs Xog and I like them. I am puzzled however as to why you are so ungenerous to Thatcher

You say:

"We were not a great Thatcher fan in general although some things she did needed doing"

This for instance was no mean achievement - give me one politician in a democratic country that could have delivered this:

"The main plus was challenging the power of the unions who were turning the British economy into a fossil of its former glory"

And you credit her with the Falklands whilst criticising her for over zealously privatising the CEGB which in your words was "mostly a pretty efficient organisation" in other words a take it or leave it monopoly. You criticise this for allowing the power companies to fall into foreign hands. This was not her doing. It can be argued that it was the ineptitude of following governments to squander the legacy she left.

Churlish indeed. But in keeping with "right on BBC liberalism"

[BlasterBates]

Lets put it this way no US or Asian manufacturer has ever invested in a manufacturing plant outside the EU to sell into the EU.

Why would it be any different if the UK left?

Not saying this wouldn´t happen, but you are going to have to come up with some good arguments to tell people why the UK would be unique in this respect.

[Doggy Styles]

Lets put it this way no US or Asian manufacturer has ever invested in a manufacturing plant outside the EU to sell into the EU.

Why would it be any different if the UK left?

Not saying this wouldn´t happen, but you are going to have to come up with some good arguments to tell people why the UK would be unique in this respect.

Are you suggesting that the EU would put up trade barriers to manufacturers in the UK selling into EU countries?

[BlasterBates]

Are you suggesting that the EU would put up trade barriers to manufacturers in the UK selling into EU countries?

Of course there are trade barriers it is unavoidable. The UKIP/"swivel eyed Tories" doesn´t want any red tape so we won´t be part of the trading zone, even if it is just additional bureacracy of going outside the EU.

Name me one major manufacturing plant outside the EU that is there specifically to sell foreign goods to the EU?

Of course the UK can develop it´s own industries but you can wave bye bye to the "easy money" EU inward investment.

[bobspud]

Of course there are trade barriers it is unavoidable. The UKIP/"swivel eyed Tories" doesn´t want any red tape so we won´t be part of the trading zone, even if it is just additional bureacracy of going outside the EU.

Name me one major manufacturing plant outside the EU that is there specifically to sell foreign goods to the EU?

Of course the UK can develop it´s own industries but you can wave bye bye to the "easy money" EU inward investment.

Of course you make an equal assumption that the EU will have any money left to spend buying our goods... Lets not forget that the IMF has just called Spain all but insolvent in recent weeks and that Italy and Portugal is in equally dire tulip.

Like it or lump it if we want to have any future in the current economic situation we had better get our heads around how we can start to sell intelligent stuff to the emerging markets in higher quantities. The hint should be following in Jaguar's footsteps to build factories over in India and China to sell stuf to there home markets.