So, who IS going to win the next election?

[Platypus]

Prompted by this:

... when Labour lose the next election just as they have lost every argument for the last 6 months...

I read some excellent analysis recently (Why Northerners don't Vote Tory) and what with the (apparent) general view that the country are sick of austerity (has there even been any real austerity? I think it's a trick), I'm thinking that it's very likely that Labour will win the next election. I've read that a LibLab coalition is predicted, but the Libs are so ineffective, I could see Labour pulling it off by themselves (LOL that sounds rude).

Any views?

By the way, for anyone who cba to read the article I linked to, it comes down to they don't like Cameron, they think he's an elitist (read the last 5 paras if nothing else).

[scooterscot]

Labour wins Cowdenbeath by-election

Oh dear <invisible being>.

[DirtyDog]

Labour outright win, or Lab/anyone coalition.

Can't see there being an outright win for anyone, and I can't see the LibDems getting enough seats to hold much sway of power. There are plenty of LD marginals which they could struggle to hold on to - I don't see how they can claim to have done anything other than support the Conservatives, which in many eyes is a betrayal of the Liberal policies so they may as well have voted Tory in the first place.

There are plenty of students (and parents of students) who will remember the value of a personally signed pledge when in opposition.

I think it could bring changes to how the parties write their manifestos, though. The LD line when they voted to increase student fees was that they only pledged to abolish them if they were in power on their own, but people didn't realise that there were conditions involved, since they hadn't mentioned them before. So now it's been shown that a minority party can pledge anything they want to in opposition because they won't win outright, will the parties make it clear in their manifesto what points are conditional and what aren't?

[DirtyDog]

Labour wins Cowdenbeath by-election

Oh dear <invisible being>.

11.25% swing from SNP to Labour

[scooterscot]

11.25% swing from SNP to Labour

33% voter turn out.

Yes, fond memories of Cowdenbeath. A constituency of Dunny-on-the-Wold, a rotten borough consisting of a tiny plot of land with several farm animals - 3 mangy cows, a Dachsund named Colin, a small hen in it's late fourties - and only three voters.

[d000hg]

Being in the North I don't hear any more anti-Tory ranting than normal, although Mr. Gove is REALLY unpopular with teachers across the board. I also don't especially hear people whinging about cuts and austerity that much.

If the Tories can convince people that cuts have actually achieved something - we tightened our belts and look what it achieved - I think that could be quite a powerful position. The idea of austerity as a kind of "pull together" thing gained some traction in the early days before it actually took hold, but they could regain that spirit if it can be shown to have worked.

Also, Labour seem to be struggling. They're pissing off unions and making really stupid promises about energy prices, etc, which I'm sure many Labour voters will realise is hogwash. And, their leader is just dull and characterless, whereas Cameron at least has a little gravitas - hardly a great deal but he looks like a PM.

So I think it could be very close.

[RedSauce]

I can't see lib dems getting many votes.

Labour majority with a lot of votes for minority parties from disillusioned Tory voters

[doodab]

I don't see how they can claim to have done anything other than support the Conservatives, which in many eyes is a betrayal of the Liberal policies so they may as well have voted Tory in the first place.

They did get the tax free allowance raised considerably which is arguably the best policy this government has come up with the whole time it's been in office. It's so good the tories even try and take the credit for it.

OTOH the tuition fees thing was a massive blunder, they should have perhaps played much harder ball there.

[eek]

Prompted by this:



I read some excellent analysis recently (Why Northerners don't Vote Tory) and what with the (apparent) general view that the country are sick of austerity (has there even been any real austerity? I think it's a trick), I'm thinking that it's very likely that Labour will win the next election. I've read that a LibLab coalition is predicted, but the Libs are so ineffective, I could see Labour pulling it off by themselves (LOL that sounds rude).

All the councils up north are being forced to cut back on things as their grants from central government got decimated. The annoying bit is that the reason given for the cuts was that the councils were inefficient which was ironic as locally we had the lowest council tax in the country due to having already done most of things being suggested to save money....

[scooterscot]

I reckon SNP will get a majority again for sure, regardless of the referendum.