Floyd Norris, veteran columnist of the New York Times, has a very interesting article in Saturday's paper.
The article is entitled, "Car-Sales Indicator Suggests a Recession is Near or Already Here."
The article (and chart) shows that whenever the rate of sales by new-car dealer has dropped 2 percent or more on a year-over-year basis, we have been on the edge or actually in a recession.
The record is shown below --
Sept. 1970, index was down 2.9%, recession began 9 months earlier.
Apr. 1974, index was down 3.2%, recession began 5 months earlier
Nov. 1979, index was down 2.6%, recession started 2 months later.
Feb. 1991, index was down 2.6%, recession started 7 months earlier.
May, 2001, index was down 2.6%, recession started 2 months earlier.
June, 2006, index was down 2.4%, recession ???
Note -- many times a recession is already underway, but it is not recognized at the time.
The article is entitled, "Car-Sales Indicator Suggests a Recession is Near or Already Here."
The article (and chart) shows that whenever the rate of sales by new-car dealer has dropped 2 percent or more on a year-over-year basis, we have been on the edge or actually in a recession.
The record is shown below --
Sept. 1970, index was down 2.9%, recession began 9 months earlier.
Apr. 1974, index was down 3.2%, recession began 5 months earlier
Nov. 1979, index was down 2.6%, recession started 2 months later.
Feb. 1991, index was down 2.6%, recession started 7 months earlier.
May, 2001, index was down 2.6%, recession started 2 months earlier.
June, 2006, index was down 2.4%, recession ???
Note -- many times a recession is already underway, but it is not recognized at the time.
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