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From Boom to Doom ?

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    From Boom to Doom ?

    Floyd Norris, veteran columnist of the New York Times, has a very interesting article in Saturday's paper.


    The article is entitled, "Car-Sales Indicator Suggests a Recession is Near or Already Here."

    The article (and chart) shows that whenever the rate of sales by new-car dealer has dropped 2 percent or more on a year-over-year basis, we have been on the edge or actually in a recession.

    The record is shown below --

    Sept. 1970, index was down 2.9%, recession began 9 months earlier.
    Apr. 1974, index was down 3.2%, recession began 5 months earlier
    Nov. 1979, index was down 2.6%, recession started 2 months later.
    Feb. 1991, index was down 2.6%, recession started 7 months earlier.
    May, 2001, index was down 2.6%, recession started 2 months earlier.
    June, 2006, index was down 2.4%, recession ???

    Note -- many times a recession is already underway, but it is not recognized at the time.

    #2
    WTF does a car salesman know about the economy ?

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by Andyw
      WTF does a car salesman know about the economy ?
      Oh well, economists too do not seem to know much more.
      I've seen much of the rest of the world. It is brutal and cruel and dark, Rome is the light.

      Comment


        #4
        The "recession" started in May 1997 and has been gathering pace ever since. Fortunately it seems to be reaching its last legs!!
        “The period of the disintegration of the European Union has begun. And the first vessel to have departed is Britain”

        Comment


          #5
          Back home, I have the American business channel CNBC on the office telly all day. As they are always pointing out; economists have correctly forecast 11 out of the last 7 recessions.

          However, I would probably agree that there’s a very good chance of something not quite healthy in the US economy.
          Blair, you cannot reach me now,
          No matter how you try,
          Goodbye cruel Labour,
          Your end is nigh.

          International Talk Like a Pirate Day

          Comment


            #6
            Sales at my Sister's business is down 20% over the last six months.

            Clients regularly email her to say they are going out of business.

            Obvious really but the sad thing is that all this could have been avoided.

            Comment


              #7
              Nothing will change for the benefit scroungers ! they will still get their full hard earned income !

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Andyw
                Nothing will change for the benefit scroungers ! they will still get their full hard earned income !
                I thought yesterday was "signing on day" for you?

                Comment


                  #9

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Phoenix
                    I thought yesterday was "signing on day" for you?

                    Now now Phoenix, thats the first post he's made that hasn't referred to Anal Fisting or Homeosexuality. Praise and encourage, praise and encourage.

                    Comment

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