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That Pause ...

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    That Pause ...

    Re: That pause in global warming. According to NASA, who as we all know are just a branch of the grant-leaching climate illuminati, January was the fifth hottest on record. March was the 3rd hottest March on record. April was the second hottest April on record and May the hottest May on record.



    Thats all. Back to the footie...
    My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

    #2
    Thanks PJ, but I'm waiting for those in the know to explain how this is untrue and/or true but unimportant.
    The material prosperity of a nation is not an abiding possession; the deeds of its people are.

    George Frederic Watts

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postman's_Park

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      #3
      Well for one thing, NASA wasn't established until 1958.
      Will work inside IR35. Or for food.

      Comment


        #4
        Is that the same NASA that crashed a $125 million Mars Climate Orbiter due to (still) working in imperial units?
        How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don't think

        Comment


          #5
          And the Bank of England wasn't formed until 1694, before that there was no money ...

          Actually NASA don't own a single weather station, they collate land station and sea surface temperature data provided by national weather services to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the US Dept. of Commerce, though how you administer a whole ocean is not clear....

          Our own Hadley Centre and UEA produce a similar data series from a similar input, with slightly different methodology, and two agencies use satellite measurements to estimate a mean temperature in the lower troposphere. In 2010 a group of scientists at Berkeley set out to re-analyse the available data to address various pseudo-sceptical concerns. Here's their chart of temperatures over land ...



          Berkeley Earth
          My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

          Comment


            #6
            What are you doing at the footie pj ?

            moving the goalposts ?
            (\__/)
            (>'.'<)
            ("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to Work

            Comment


              #7
              Mo' Pauses

              The past 12 months—October 2013–September 2014—was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average
              and

              If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest calendar year on record

              Global Analysis - September 2014 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
              My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

              Comment


                #8
                It's shrinking our goats - 'the sky is falling in'
                Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.

                Comment


                  #9
                  I dont like the idea of using a single thermomenter to measure the temperature across hundreds or even thoudands of kilometers. not at all.
                  Only an eejit would look at a thermometer in London and try to tell you that was the temperature in Madrid. Or a con man, charlaten or fraud.

                  Of course , being Nasa, you would imagine that they would use satellites instead. The problem they have is that the satellites show steady (albeit slight) cooling and this goes against the narrative, so it is discarded.

                  Arctic ice is up, Antarctic ice is up, temperatures are steady or falling. Manhatten is not serving water by request only, snow is not a thing of the past and orange groves are not sprouting up in the far north of Scotland.
                  (\__/)
                  (>'.'<)
                  ("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to Work

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I dont like the idea of using a single thermomenter to measure the temperature across hundreds or even thoudands of kilometers. not at all.
                    Only an eejit would look at a thermometer in London and try to tell you that was the temperature in Madrid. Or a con man, charlaten or fraud.
                    There are indeed areas of sparse coverage, other areas of dense coverage. One of the least well-covered by surface stations is the Arctic which is warming faster than the average, so the global index is likely cooler than reality. The average is good enough. In fact you only need about 60 instruments to get a reliable estimate for the whole planet (Google 'degrees of freedom'). Any more, and there are about 4,000 globally, is oversampling. And of course the measurements are of anomalies, that is, the difference between the current value and the average for the location at that time of year. So in terms of calculating a global trend the sparse distribution is a complete red herring.

                    Consider two stations co-located. Of course they show the same trend. Now move them apart and measure how the correlation in trend declines with distance. This exercise has been done and it was found that the trend variance rose to 50% only once the stations were about 1000km apart, hence this is the radius used by NASA. This really is established science, see:

                    Hansen and Lebedeev 1987 http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00700d.html

                    Given there are gaps in the coverage, and you want to compute a global average, what would you use to infill? A 'null' would effectively just add in the global or hemispherical average, and indeed that is the choice of some agencies.

                    Of course , being Nasa, you would imagine that they would use satellites instead. The problem they have is that the satellites show steady (albeit slight) cooling and this goes against the narrative, so it is discarded.
                    It was the NOAA, not NASA. Their methodology is here ... Global Surface Temperature Anomalies | Monitoring References | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and here's a plot from a 'cooling' satellite dataset

                    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend


                    Arctic ice is up, Antarctic ice is up, temperatures are steady or falling. Manhatten is not serving water by request only, snow is not a thing of the past and orange groves are not sprouting up in the far north of Scotland.
                    Arctic sea ice is up since 2 years ago, long term the trend is precipitously downwards, more than offsetting the minor gain in the Antarctic, which has complex causes. How is a record warm 12 months possible if temperatures are cooling?

                    Last edited by pjclarke; 22 October 2014, 17:01.
                    My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.

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